Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FrankSG]

I assume joining S&P is still in the card. Tesla should satisfy the earnings requirement the earliest after Q1, latest after next Q3. TSLA will join S&P sooner or later, it's only a matter of time.

For normal companies, maybe it's easy to buy 20 million shares from the market. For TSLA, I don't think longs will sell their shares even if the price goes higher, especially when TSLA starts to have a string of positive quarters. So who will sell shares to the index funds?

My dad apparently... he sold 40% of his shares @ 299 right after earnings smh. I told him he'd be wise to not look at them again for 10 years.

Where are you getting this 20 million number btw? Is there any way to estimate how many shares would be bought by index funds after S&P inclusion? About 15% of float being bought by index funds while ~25% of float is shorted sounds like it could get interesting.

 

[lklundin]

Tesla deliveries in Denmark 2019:
November S/3/X: 120/1852/78
October S/3/X: 6/23/4

Bilimp.dk - Vis nyhed
Bilimp.dk - Vis nyhed

PS. November deliveries for Germany do not seem to be out yet, for October they were 293, for Jan-Sept 9008.

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla was able to offer a $39,000 Cybertruck that is a shocking ~40% larger than the Model 3.

I only really want to address the above part, because I think it's what's leading to a lot of the misapprehensions. That's a $39k Cybertruck two years in the future. I hope people here have not let it slip by them how dramatically Tesla's COGS declines every single year.

 

[skivi]

Tesla deliveries in Denmark 2019:
November S/3/X: 120/1852/78
October S/3/X: 6/23/4

Bilimp.dk - Vis nyhed
Bilimp.dk - Vis nyhed

PS. November deliveries for Germany do not seem to be out yet, for October they were 293, for Jan-Sept 9008.

Wow that's a lot for Denmark in one Month!

 

[TradingInvest]

I only really want to address the above part, because I think it's what's leading to a lot of the misapprehensions. That's a $39k Cybertruck two years in the future. I hope people here have not let it slip by them how dramatically Tesla's COGS declines every single year.

That's the major hidden message. Tesla is able to drop EV all-in cost by a lot every few years, while ICE price will gradually rise. The price tipping point between Tesla's EV and ICE is real.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yes. That would require a non-trivial upgrade (of not only the glass) since the kinetic energy is about 4 times higher than for a 9mm.

Trivial with stick-on composite metal-foam armor. Fast and cheap too to apply to flat plates. Can include reactive armor for urban settings. Cybertruck is the ideal platform to upgrade protection.

I expect an entire sub-industry to begin offering upgrades to Cybertruck. So much, that it may be impossible to buy one without an early reservation number.

 

[lklundin]

Tesla deliveries Sweden 2019:
November S/3/X: 75/104/51, YTD=1067/3612/482
October S/3/X: 15/47/21, YTD=963/3537/431

(NB: The November YTD numbers do not seem to match November sales + October YTD numbers...)

Fortsatt uppgång på bilmarknaden i november - främst laddbara bilar ökar
Höjd prognos och fortsatt uppgång på bilmarknaden i oktober

 

[Fact Checking]

I only really want to address the above part, because I think it's what's leading to a lot of the misapprehensions. That's a $39k Cybertruck two years in the future. I hope people here have not let it slip by them how dramatically Tesla's COGS declines every single year.

I already addressed the '2 years of battery tech improvements' factor in the reply you replied to:

We cannot say anything about the economic viability of the CyberSedan or the CyberSUV based on the Cd alone, it's not even close, because the cost of goods appears to be so radically different - even taking ~2 years of +5%/year efficiency improvements in battery tech into account.

That the CyberTruck is going to improve battery tech efficiency gains significantly beyond the ~10% from the 2x5% historic factor is a big assumption.

I believe it's an equally valid thesis to just calculate the material and production savings and come to the conclusion that a big chunk of the 40% probably comes from that direction.

In any case, my main point stands: we don't know from the Cd alone, and until we don't know the other, equally important economic factors, we cannot make any reliably good estimates about whether a CyberSUV or CyberSedan is economically viable within Tesla's product palette.

 

[ReflexFunds]

I wonder if we have any consensus here on exactly how Panasonic measures its 30GWh current and 35GWh final capacity?

Is this before or after scrap rates?

It would seem to make most sense for reported production rate to only count cells they are actually able to sell to Tesla, and total cell production before scrap is higher. This seems even more likely given that Elon also talks about these same numbers - Elon surely only cares how many good cells he actually receives to the Tesla side and has no interest in how many good + bad cells are initially produced on the Panasonic. Hard to know for sure though.​

Exactly what Wh do Tesla and Panasonic rate each individual cell and pack?

• Ricard measured 17.3wh while the UBS funded teardown measured 17.52wh for Model 3 cells.
• I think in a pack using the BMS cells can achieve higher wh than the individual tests however and the EPA documents suggest 18.229wh per cell and 17.724wh useable. The initial 2017 EPA documents show a useable capacity in a LR pack of 80.5kWh ("Battery Energy Capacity" of 230Ah x "Total Voltage of Battery Packs" of 350V) on page 3 here https://iaspub.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_file.jsp?docid=42148&flag=1. They also show 78.3kwh useable capacity (this is the End-Soc number disclosed at the bottom of page 6 in the EPA document). We know from teardowns there were 4416 cells in a LR pack, hence the 18.229wh/17.724wh per cell numbers. And my assumption would be both Tesla and Panasonic rate the cells at 18.229wh.
• SR+ has 54.5kwh useable capacity (search 54523 in this document https://iaspub.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_file.jsp?docid=48305&flag=1) but the total capacity is not disclosed. I would guess it is 56.0kwh total or 3072 cells (Carsonight claims 2976 but this would imply a total capacity lower than the useable capacity measured which doesn't make sense).

So in summary, I think Tesla rates LR packs at 80.5kwh and SR+ at 56.0kwh and Panasonic's 35GWh production target will be after scrap, and these are the numbers we should use when estimating cell constraints on Tesla production capacity. Anyone agree/disagree?

 

[KarenRei]

LoL, that's like trying to stop a tidal wave with a bucket. All that time wasted to work on 1-2 customers every few days while 5k around the world took deliveries during that time.

Good strategy back in the days when Tesla were selling like 300/month.

1-2 customers every few days? Did you not click on the "tweets and replies" button? In the past 24 hours they've targeted:

EnerTuition on Twitter
Lindsay Ellis on Twitter (multiple tweets)
Michael Rihani  on Twitter
Edward Hodge on Twitter
Nancy Knupfer on Twitter
Carlo Costanzo on Twitter
Jason Hashmi on Twitter
Antoin on Twitter
TezLab Supercharger Bot on Twitter
Sunny Walia on Twitter
Shawn Nag on Twitter
Carol Scherer Murphy on Twitter
Mike Frank on Twitter
Miguel Colom on Twitter (multiple tweets)
greg stasko on Twitter
Alex Roy on Twitter (multiple tweets)
Shehzaad Nakhoda on Twitter (multiple tweets)
Shary Nassimi on Twitter
John S on Twitter
Ben on Twitter
Ahmed Farag on Twitter
Sean Gorman on Twitter
Steve Perkins on Twitter (the person they're targeting literally says they're cancelling their order)
Scot Work on Twitter (original tweet deleted)
JK4K on Twitter
Veritrope on Twitter
itsjustkev on Twitter
Scot Work on Twitter (original tweet deleted)
Nick Schwab on Twitter
Zero Carbon Capital on Twitter
Robert Scoble on Twitter
Can Quach on Twitter
KK B on Twitter

That's ***one day*** of their targets. They do this every single day.

I just went through and wrote tweets on each one informing them that they're being targeted, but I can't spend my whole life doing this. When you talk to their targets, 95% of the time the target doesn't realize that the people they're speaking to are short-sellers.

 

[EV Promoter]

At these $330 price levels I think buying anything but straight stock or maybe Theta-heavy options expiring Q3'2020 and beyond is a significantly elevated risk (and even those are risky, as usual - this is TSLA after all) - and the recent jump in the stock price and the risk of a breakout made most options pretty expensive.

A number of cautious TMC bulls got burned by options in our Q4'2018 euphoria, which came crashing down and met cold reality in Q1'2019. Even buyers of the stock had a couple of stressful weeks in June ...

Eh, right, i've missed (for greed on peanuts) the 230-250$ range for a 40% increase of my TSLA long position and now i'm stuck with money in my hand undecided about the right (say, acceptable) moment to buy.....

 

[KarenRei]

I already addressed the '2 years of battery tech improvements' factor in the reply you replied to

1) You're measuring the wrong parameter ("top of the line range improvements") - it's cost per kWh that matters for COGS, which has been declining far faster than the 5% per year that range has been improving.

2) COGS is not just "battery tech"; it's a wide range of factors, all of which improve with scale and/or tech advancement.

 

[TradingInvest]

My dad apparently... he sold 40% of his shares @ 299 right after earnings smh. I told him he'd be wise to not look at them again for 10 years.

Where are you getting this 20 million number btw? Is there any way to estimate how many shares would be bought by index funds after S&P inclusion? About 15% of float being bought by index funds while ~25% of float is shorted sounds like it could get interesting.

You can estimate how much index money will be buying TSLA based on:
how much money is in S&P500 index fund
Tesla's market cap 60B
Total S&P 500 index market cap 27 trillion

At this price, TSLA should have a weight of 0.22%. So every $1 trillion of S&P 500 index fund should buy 6.6 million shares of TSLA. I couldn't find out exactly how much money is following S&P 500 index, how much is shadow following. I used 3T as a rough estimate, could be too high. Some shares will be pre-purchased by active funds to take advantage of index funds, some index funds will take time to gradually add. So we may not see a sudden purchase of 20 million shares.

 

[lklundin]

Wow that's a lot for Denmark in one Month!

Yes. I doubled checked that the numbers are as listed along with their definition. Model 3 market share for Denmark that month is about 40%, with e.g. the Kona getting a good 10%)

 

[KarenRei]

Wow that's a lot for Denmark in one Month!

I'm personally not going to read too much into the exact of countries outside of the Netherlands because Tesla has been prioritizing getting Netherlands deliveries done this quarter. Europe hasn't been able to order SR+ for deliveries this quarter for most of the quarter, some places haven't been able to order AWD for a while, and now no more orders (outside of rapidly dwindling inventory) are available for delivery this quarter. So any numbers for other countries in Europe should be seen as "minimums" in terms of demand. Even the Netherlands has been artificially deflated in that even they haven't been able to order SR+ for delivery this quarter (and again, now can't order any for this quarter).

Still, of utility in trying to guestimate total deliveries.

 

[Huskyf]

1-2 customers every few days? Did you not click on the "tweets and replies" button? In the past 24 hours they've targeted:

EnerTuition on Twitter
Lindsay Ellis on Twitter (multiple tweets)
Michael Rihani  on Twitter
Edward Hodge on Twitter
Nancy Knupfer on Twitter
Carlo Costanzo on Twitter
Jason Hashmi on Twitter
Antoin on Twitter
TezLab Supercharger Bot on Twitter
Sunny Walia on Twitter
Shawn Nag on Twitter
Carol Scherer Murphy on Twitter
Mike Frank on Twitter
Miguel Colom on Twitter (multiple tweets)
greg stasko on Twitter
Alex Roy on Twitter (multiple tweets)
Shehzaad Nakhoda on Twitter (multiple tweets)
Shary Nassimi on Twitter
John S on Twitter
Ben on Twitter
Ahmed Farag on Twitter
Sean Gorman on Twitter
Steve Perkins on Twitter (the person they're targeted literally says they're cancelling their order)
Scot Work on Twitter (original tweet deleted)
JK4K on Twitter
Veritrope on Twitter
itsjustkev on Twitter
Scot Work on Twitter (original tweet deleted)
Nick Schwab on Twitter
Zero Carbon Capital on Twitter
Robert Scoble on Twitter
Can Quach on Twitter
KK B on Twitter

That's ***one day*** of their targets. They do this every single day.

I just went through and wrote tweets on each one informing them that they're being targeted, but I can't spend my whole life doing this. When you talk to their targets, 95% of the time the target doesn't realize that the people they're speaking to are short-sellers.

If all owners of this Forum make a complain on twitter I think twitter delete this account
KerenRei I help you If you want every link you send on this post a make a complain to twitter to delete this account.

 

[Huskyf]

1-2 customers every few days? Did you not click on the "tweets and replies" button? In the past 24 hours they've targeted:

EnerTuition on Twitter
Lindsay Ellis on Twitter (multiple tweets)
Michael Rihani  on Twitter
Edward Hodge on Twitter
Nancy Knupfer on Twitter
Carlo Costanzo on Twitter
Jason Hashmi on Twitter
Antoin on Twitter
TezLab Supercharger Bot on Twitter
Sunny Walia on Twitter
Shawn Nag on Twitter
Carol Scherer Murphy on Twitter
Mike Frank on Twitter
Miguel Colom on Twitter (multiple tweets)
greg stasko on Twitter
Alex Roy on Twitter (multiple tweets)
Shehzaad Nakhoda on Twitter (multiple tweets)
Shary Nassimi on Twitter
John S on Twitter
Ben on Twitter
Ahmed Farag on Twitter
Sean Gorman on Twitter
Steve Perkins on Twitter (the person they're targeted literally says they're cancelling their order)
Scot Work on Twitter (original tweet deleted)
JK4K on Twitter
Veritrope on Twitter
itsjustkev on Twitter
Scot Work on Twitter (original tweet deleted)
Nick Schwab on Twitter
Zero Carbon Capital on Twitter
Robert Scoble on Twitter
Can Quach on Twitter
KK B on Twitter

That's ***one day*** of their targets. They do this every single day.

I just went through and wrote tweets on each one informing them that they're being targeted, but I can't spend my whole life doing this. When you talk to their targets, 95% of the time the target doesn't realize that the people they're speaking to are short-sellers.

Send this list to Tesla and Elon Musk they can make a complain to this shorts

 

[KarenRei]

If all owners of this Forum make a complain on twitter I think twitter delete this account
KerenRei I help you If you want every link you send on this post a make a complain to twitter to delete this account.

Here's the Twitter policy they're blatantly violating (@scot_work was already banned once for violating it, hence the reincarnation as @ghost_scot):

Platform manipulation - Particularly "Artificial amplification — Actions to make an account or concept more popular or controversial than it actually is through inauthentic engagements."

Here's how you file a report:

Someone on Twitter is engaging in abusive or harassing behavior

("Someone on Twitter is posting spam" / "Directed at others (e.g. a friend or group)")

Here's Scot openly admitting to the campaign:

Scot Work on Twitter

Here's a screenshot of another member of the campaign describing what they do:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EFg41bXW4AEFap0?format=png&name=900x900

You can also go to specific tweets and report them individually.

If anyone with friendly media links wants to write an article about what they're doing, I'm sure shining light on their campaign would be useful, and not something they'd appreciate. I wouldn't be surprised if what they're doing is outright illegal.

 

[lklundin]

1-2 customers every few days? Did you not click on the "tweets and replies" button? In the past 24 hours they've targeted:

EnerTuition on Twitter
Lindsay Ellis on Twitter (multiple tweets)
Michael Rihani  on Twitter
Edward Hodge on Twitter
Nancy Knupfer on Twitter
Carlo Costanzo on Twitter
Jason Hashmi on Twitter
Antoin on Twitter
TezLab Supercharger Bot on Twitter
Sunny Walia on Twitter
Shawn Nag on Twitter
Carol Scherer Murphy on Twitter
Mike Frank on Twitter
Miguel Colom on Twitter (multiple tweets)
greg stasko on Twitter
Alex Roy on Twitter (multiple tweets)
Shehzaad Nakhoda on Twitter (multiple tweets)
Shary Nassimi on Twitter
John S on Twitter
Ben on Twitter
Ahmed Farag on Twitter
Sean Gorman on Twitter
Steve Perkins on Twitter (the person they're targeting literally says they're cancelling their order)
Scot Work on Twitter (original tweet deleted)
JK4K on Twitter
Veritrope on Twitter
itsjustkev on Twitter
Scot Work on Twitter (original tweet deleted)
Nick Schwab on Twitter
Zero Carbon Capital on Twitter
Robert Scoble on Twitter
Can Quach on Twitter
KK B on Twitter

That's ***one day*** of their targets. They do this every single day.

I just went through and wrote tweets on each one informing them that they're being targeted, but I can't spend my whole life doing this. When you talk to their targets, 95% of the time the target doesn't realize that the people they're speaking to are short-sellers.

Thanks for your efforts. The above listed Twitter accounts seem to belong to people who are not in the market for a Tesla, in fact they look like they could be short sellers. Which accounts belong to the unsuspecting, potential Tesla buyers targeted by the short seller accounts?

 

[TradingInvest]

While the $39k Cybertruck price seems shockingly low, the ASP is likely to reach $52k without counting FSD option sales. I think Tesla should be able to make a nice profit on $52k ASP, FSD will be additional profit.

Edit: truck is different from sedan. Some people actually need the higher end truck for the range and utility. I assume the sales will be 1/3 of each model. (40k, 50k, 70k), assume average buyer will add $1k option not counting FSD. So we get ASP $5.43k. Even if using today's 2170 batteries, they should have a nice profit. FSD take rate is hard to tell. Assume 50% take rate by 2022, that's another $3.5k profit from each truck.