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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Pre-market $337

Does anyone have any idea what is driving the TSLA price action in the premarket? After-market volume yesterday was higher than usual with 85K shares traded, and it drove the price down to around $333.

There's no big macro action, and there's no TSLA news on the market news feeds I have access to.

China news perhaps?

As @cyclingthealps pointed it out below it's probably the news that Japan's biggest pension fund stopped lending to short sellers.
 
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Indeed, the lawsuit is a personal one involving Musk and not Tesla at all. If anything, there is a tiny relationship with SpaceX, since they were to build the proposed rescue vehicle. Still, only Musk could be forced to compensate for libel.

Meanwhile, this will be a jury trial. Selection begins tomorrow, and the judge plans to likely disallow anyone with prejudices against billionaires or prejudices against people who visit or live in Thailand. That procedure may be time consuming.

anyone who thinks it won’t affect the stock price is delusionally myopic about how Wall Street treats TSLA.
 
Does anyone have any idea what is driving the TSLA price action in the premarket? After-market volume yesterday was higher than usual with 85K shares traded, and it drove the price down to around $333.

There's no big macro action, and there's no TSLA news on the market news feeds I have access to.

China news perhaps?

Maybe Elon went to Japan to talk with the world biggest pension fund to stop lending shares for short sellers.

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Do you think it's true there is serious pent-up US demand?

Well, they pent up the vast majority of demand in the first part of the quarter, in order to export to Europe. But I expect they'll work through most to all of the list this quarter. The US and Netherlands should be their top priority markets this quarter for deliveries, due to tax reasons.

Cybertruck will be v1.0 of Tesla's new approach to vehicle manufacturing. For the next generation of Tesla manufacturing, let's look at the following, excerpted from US Patent: (US20190217380) MULTI-DIRECTIONAL UNIBODY CASTING MACHINE FOR A VEHICLE FRAME AND ASSOCIATED METHODS

Cybertruck has been explicitly stated to be made from folded full-hard 30x stainless sheet - not cast.
 
I wonder which way we’ll go today. Macros looking ok, with futures slightly up.

Hard to tell how this stupid pedo trial will influence. Sure it has nothing to do with Tesla, but I only see negatives coming from it.

in any case, I’ve just transferred €10k to my trading account and I’ll be looking to add at $330 during the MMD

Goddammit, money didn't arrive in time to catch the pre-market dip. I set a $330 buy order for 33, but well, never made it... And stupid me, I set it as GTC, so now I can't buy in pre-market today as the money is reserved :mad:

Think the SP is heading up, maybe this stupid trial might put some downward pressure, especially is Elon loses, but I'm really unsure what the impact might be.
 
Does anyone have any idea what is driving the TSLA price action in the premarket? After-market volume yesterday was higher than usual with 85K shares traded, and it drove the price down to around $333.

There's no big macro action, and there's no TSLA news on the market news feeds I have access to.

China news perhaps?

$338 now. :)

I suspect it's this:

Tesla Daily on Twitter

Piper Jaffray increases price target on $TSLA to $423 from $372, citing impressive expense control and calling #Tesla a "must-own stock in this sector."
 
Parking lots at GF3 doing a great job filling up with Model 3s :) Most recent image (right) is from yesterday.

View attachment 484185

While I love the imagery of all the MIC M3's rolling off into the line, I don't think images of the parking lot would be a good way to guess the amount of cars being produced at GF3.

Look at it; it's tiny, in comparison to the amount of cars per week that Tesla is aiming to produce from GF3. Since the construction is finishing along the area, I don't think they're going to extend that parking area (and if they had, they'd have done that early on).

That is probably only a quick store overflow area; for when models are awaiting shipment to their next home. My bet is that sometimes it won't even have much/any vehicles, as the cars are nearly directly loaded onto the trailer trucks. Maybe they're awaiting owner's confirmations/logistics of delivery for the ones pictured, which is great, and would explain why there's a stash of them there.
 
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While I love the imagery of all the MIC M3's rolling off into the line, I don't think images of the parking lot would be a good way to guess the amount of cars being produced at GF3.

Look at it; it's tiny, in comparison to the amount of cars per week that Tesla is aiming to produce from GF3. Since the construction is finishing along the area, I don't think they're going to extend that parking area (and if they had, they'd have done that early on).

That is probably only a quick store overflow area; for when models are awaiting shipment to their next home. My bet is that sometimes it won't even have much/any vehicles, as the cars are nearly directly loaded onto the trailer trucks. Maybe they're awaiting owner's confirmations/logistics of delivery for the ones pictured, which is great, and would explain why there's a stash of them there.

At this stage in the ramp, it's meaningful; GF3 just isn't producing that many cars yet. We're watching sigmoid growth in the rate at which they're filling the lots. Soon they won't have enough room at GF3 period.

You don't jump straight to 3k/wk, or even a good fraction thereof; it's a sigmoid curve. Every time we see the lots, they're not just "more full" - the rate at which they're filling is rising, too. And the latter is the factor that matters. They now seem to be producing dozens if not upwards of 100 per day.
 
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Altman-Z scores (bankruptcy likelyhood ratings) for various automakers. High = bankruptcy unlikely; low = bankruptcy likely:

1.91 Tesla
1.84 Honda
(financial distress zone is any score below 1.81)
1.77 Toyota
1.38 Nissan
1.35 Fiat Chrysler
1.14 Volkswagen
1.09 Daimler
1.09 GM
0.95 Ford
0.79 BMW
-4.36 NIO

The score is of the form:
Z = 1.2X1 + 1.4X2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6X4 + 1.0X5.
X1 = working capital / total assets. Measures liquid assets in relation to the size of the company.
X2 = retained earnings / total assets. Measures profitability that reflects the company's age and earning power.
X3 = earnings before interest and taxes / total assets. Measures operating efficiency apart from tax and leveraging factors. It recognizes operating earnings as being important to long-term viability.
X4 = market value of equity / book value of total liabilities. Adds market dimension that can show up security price fluctuation as a possible red flag.
X5 = sales / total assets. Standard measure for total asset turnover (varies greatly from industry to industry).

ht/James Stephenson
 
It's not cold-rolled; it's die-cast metal foam, and it's plenty strong.


???

Cybertruck most definitely is not made of metal foam. It's made of grooved-and-folded 3mm full-hard 30x stainless sheet.

Maybe some day, though - that'd be bloody amazing. :) Metal foam sandwiches yield superb strength-to-mass ratios (as well as to being an almost perfect design for catching projectiles - deform/spin it on the front plate, soak the kinetic energy in the interior, then catch the projectile/fragments on the backplate). And yeah, there are techniques to cast foam sandwiches as a single part (such as quenching the outside quickly but giving the molten interior time to outgas).
 
Cybertruck has been explicitly stated to be made from folded full-hard 30x stainless sheet - not cast.
Did you read anything I wrote? :rolleyes: I said v2.0 beginning in 2023. There's nothing special about cold-rolling, if it can be replaced by a better process in the future. READ Telsa's patent to understand what they intend to do.
 
Did you read anything I wrote? :rolleyes: I said v2.0 beginning in 2023. There's nothing special about cold-rolling, if it can be replaced by a better process in the future. READ Telsa's patent to understand what they intend to do.

Ah, here was the communications problem:

"Cybertruck will be v1.0 of Tesla's new approach to vehicle manufacturing. For the next generation of Tesla manufacturing, let's look at the following, excerpted from US Patent"

I interpreted "new approach" as being intended as synonymous with "next generation". I didn't even get to the point where you wrote 2023 (near the bottom of your post) because I wasn't agreeing with literally anything you were writing because of the above misunderstanding.

In this case, I wouldn't be surprised if you're correct. Note that if Tesla does switch to casting, Cybertruck will no longer need to be "cyber"; it won't have to be angular, and they almost certainly will smooth it out in order to get a better drag coefficient (and the dramatic benefits that come with that). Unless their battery costs are so low, energy densities so high, and charge powers so high that they can just throw caution to the wind and do whatever shapes they want ;)

Also, another side effect: metal foams have some natural insulation and sound damping properties. :) AFAIK thermal conductivity is roughly linear with porosity.

ED: Huh... I just had a realization. The quenched skins of a metal foam sandwich, still containing grains of a foaming compound, would likely function as a form of non-explosive reactive armour if hit by a HEAT round... (melt the compound, it should outgas and deform, which would constantly shift the point of impact of the incoming copper stream). I'd suspect that even the already-foamed material is probably quite good at dispersing the stream on its own.

Again, making veritable APCs isn't the goal, but....
 
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I'm confused. Why would you need to stop every 100 to 150 miles if you have even 1000 miles of range? In our gas car, we typically drive 250 to 325 miles between stops. 95% of people who travel don't stop every 150 miles. That's only 2 hours of driving. Well, at least in the U.S.
Perhaps you are much younger than we are.
 
Ah, here was the communications problem:

"Cybertruck will be v1.0 of Tesla's new approach to vehicle manufacturing. For the next generation of Tesla manufacturing, let's look at the following, excerpted from US Patent"

I interpreted "new approach" as being intended as synonymous with "next generation". I didn't even get to the point where you wrote 2023 (near the bottom of your post) because I wasn't agreeing with literally anything you were writing because of the above misunderstanding.

In this case, I wouldn't be surprised if you're correct. Note that if Tesla does switch to casting, Cybertruck will no longer need to be "cyber"; it won't have to be angular, and they almost certainly will smooth it out in order to get a better drag coefficient (and the dramatic benefits that come with that). Unless their battery costs are so low, energy densities so high, and charge powers so high that they can just throw caution to the wind and do whatever shapes they want ;)

Also, another side effect: metal foams have some natural insulation and sound damping properties. :) AFAIK thermal conductivity is roughly linear with porosity.

ED: Huh... I just had a realization. The quenched skins of a metal foam sandwich, still containing grains of a foaming compound, would likely function as a form of non-explosive reactive armour if hit by a HEAT round... (melt the compound, it should outgas and deform, which would constantly shift the point of impact of the incoming copper stream). I'd suspect that even the already-foamed material is probably quite good at dispersing the stream on its own.

Again, making veritable APCs isn't the goal, but....
One solution to gun control? New mass market in Mexico and the rest of latin america? Very popular in Iraq, Iran, and the upper crusts in the middle east. I kid I kids but...well, no...I am serious.

I too missed @Artful Dodger implicit V2 on the vehicle designs. Of course I am only 3 inches into my first java (bless you O mighty caffeine goddesses). I appreciated the pointer to the patent application and it's good to see the tesla team stepping up the patent side of things. So, thanks @Artful Dodger .

NC State is one of the largest recipients of darpa funding out there, at least they used to be. I think they still has a big presence. More generals from NC State than anywhere other than academies. That kind of school so not surprising they are doing this sort of work.