Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mich]

Only 4 more hours until Morten Groves’ Tesla Europe rumors announcement .

Any last predictions?

BASF partnership. Just a wild guess.

 

[Tslynk67]

FTFY

View attachment 486921

Let's make a pact that we all consume way too much of our poison-of-choice when we hit $420, eh?

 

[Fact Checking]

The battery factory’s initial output will be 10 GWh. Capex to get to this initial output is “less than 100s of millions”, which is financial speak for somewhere above $100m.

I'm wondering whether this is cell factory output or a battery pack factory with external cell supply (LG Chem)?

10 GWh/year output is roughly 3,500 SR+ packs/week at 54 kWh, which is close to the GF3 Phase 1 nominal output of 3,000/week.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Let's make a pact that we all consume way too much of our poison-of-choice when we hot €420, eh?

As (E)420 is roughly $465, I very much agree with this.

Wait, but does this mean we get to celebrate two SP breaking 420 events?

 

[Mich]

BASF partnership. Just a wild guess.

BASF is investing half a billion into battery chemistry just 100 miles away. We are still waiting for more details on GF4. So Tesla and BASF decided on Brandenburg for EV production. Coincidence?

 

[HG Wells]

My guess is that it's not substantial in nature. Otherwise, his $18 dollar patron members would have leaked it to Eletrick or Teslarati or some other green news agency.

But, I'd say... contractor hired to start demo-ing the trees this quarter.

Not hired. Tree's sold.

 

[DrMazeppa]

BASF is investing half a billion into battery chemistry just 100 miles away. We are still waiting for more details on GF4. So Tesla and BASF decided on Brandenburg for EV production. Coincidence?

If I am not mistaken, Tesla gave BASF a supplier award for excellence a few years ago. So, why not.

 

[SpaceCash]

Treelon Fidelis



*($350)>~-}

 

[Tslynk67]

Possibly important.
No its VERY important !

There have been virtually NO model 3 inventory in the US for the past few months.
Tesla has just listed 87 units as being available.
Only 2 have less than 100 miles on them.
They are selling off the DEMO's !

I saw some fresh ones in Belgium yesterday, 7, I think, just one there still this morning.

 

[RobStark]

Trump, Pelosi seal revised NAFTA; automakers, unions praise deal

 

[Tslynk67]

Something people forget:
Even if waymo get to FSD at exactly the same time as Tesla do (yeah right...) They STILL lose.
Why?
Tesla has better battery tech and longer range. Game over.

And Waymo can't FSD outside the geo-fenced area, right?

 

[Tslynk67]

As (E)420 is roughly $465, I very much agree with this.

Wait, but does this mean we get to celebrate two SP breaking 420 events?

Whoops! Need to remedy that...

 

[lklundin]

Halve that. The 2TW is supposed to be half for automotive, half for energy.

Still a crazy-big number, of course!

- and hardly in place for 2024.

 

[FrankSG]

Something people forget:
Even if waymo get to FSD at exactly the same time as Tesla do (yeah right...) They STILL lose.
Why?
Tesla has better battery tech and longer range. Game over.

Take a look at Mobileye's recent investor day. To me it's looking like they will beat Waymo and are in 2nd place.

 

[Tslynk67]

Nasdaq Futures fairly neutral this morning, $TSLA back above $350 in Pre-Market

 

[Tslynk67]

Here's Morten's revelations...

Morten Grove on Twitter

Morten Grove on Twitter

 

[KarenRei]

Morten is asking for regulatory trouble by openly stating that he's getting material info from insiders and then selling a pre-public release of said info :Þ

 

[mongo]

Morten is asking for regulatory trouble by openly stating that he's getting material info from insiders and then selling a pre-public release of said info :Þ

If you are basing that statement off of those two Tweets:
I'd say reporting that an acquaintance spotted a Y in Europe at a service center and sales expansion aligning with GF4 construction and regions the 3 is expanding to is lower on the scale of insider info than hinting that Tesla is teaming up with a US OEM for truck drivetrains.

 

[pyromatter]

 

[Boomer19]

Wanted to dump some info that came from a research note yesterday. I tried to clearly lay out what came directly from Tesla and what was inferred by Deutsche Bank.



Deutsche Bank hosted Martin Viecha (TSLA Head of Investor Relations) in Frankfurt last week for investor meetings. Here are some of the highlights and new details I haven’t read before.



Shanghai Gigafactory and China:

The Shanghai factory will be a template for future Gigafactories. Expect the Berlin Gigafactory to look similar. The factory was designed with simplicity in mind. They note the car does a single loop around the factory and is then finished, which checks out with this post from Fact Checking: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

When asked about manufacturing efficiencies in China, Tesla cited a third party teardown analysis which shows at least a 20% lower cost of production. Note: I’m unsure if this report is specific to Tesla or the general auto industry, it’s unclear. Tesla did not disclose its own savings.

The battery factory’s initial output will be 10 GWh. Capex to get to this initial output is “less than 100s of millions”, which is financial speak for somewhere above $100m.

The China subsidy policy will bring the Model 3 price down from 328k RMB to 299k RMB including VAT.

Tesla plans to build 100 supercharger stations per quarter in China. This can possibly be accelerated to 150-200.


Berlin Gigafactory:

Tesla still expects construction to begin around January 2020. Vehicle production from the Berlin Gigafactory is expected to begin in 2021 or a max two years from the start of construction.

Capex for GF4 is indicated to be slightly higher than GF3.


Model Y:

Since Tesla wants to be at volume production for Model Y next summer, Deutsche Bank believes Tesla will start ramping initial production of the car in Fremont as soon as a few months from now.

Manufacturing costs for Model Y are about the same as the Model 3, yet ASPs are ~$4k higher for CUVs, suggesting higher margins.


Other tidbits:

There was a 27% take rate for FSD at $6k. This must be data from before the recent price hike to $7k.

Today, less than 5% of Model 3 sales are from reservation holders.

Tesla did not provide an update to its battery cost curve. However, Deutsche Bank thinks it’s safe to assume that they are below $100/kwh at this stage.

Tesla expects Model S range to climb roughly 15% per year.



Martin Viecha also attended Deutsche Bank's AutoTech Conference today in San Francisco. There might be another report later this week/next week with more highlights from that. Though I expect him to regurgitate much of what was said here.

model Y manufacturing cost roughly same as 3?