Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

How has short interest not gone down? Sure some people are double down types, but are they all so foolish?

Actually, some of my friends are saying this. But since most can't afford a Tesla (in their own mind), I feel like I'm pushing on a wound sometimes. Now I find myself checking my voice at the door, just to make sure I don't sound like the 1%. I find it hard to balance pure excitement of raw sports car and technology, with "I drive a Tesla, hahaha" that I'm sure some hear.

For sure. I was very quiet at work early on (especially as there is a wide delta between compensation on my projects). Now I'm a little more comfortable as more people understand that some Teslas are 40k and we have others on the project who own them. I'm always quick to mention my cost savings so I don't sound like a braggart.

 

[AlexS]

Still 10B short! Burn baby burnnnnnn
View attachment 490133

Lets hope that Ihor have correct numbers this time

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

So Diess needs to be investigated for fraud because he's trying to sell something that the company couldn't even get to work, right? SEC, where are you? Get this stock-pumping fraud-boy arrested! s/

In all seriousness though, with this news out the VW stock price is down today by less than 2%, and part of that is macro.

Now let's imagine -- it's not for real, guys, no need to panic, we are just imagining here, okay? -- that Tesla is reportedly parking their first 10,000 cars of a new model in rented car parks because they don't have a working software architecture for those already-produced cars! How... badly would the stock price be affected by such news, hm? And how many "experts" would readily offer their opinion that it just shows how bad Tesla are at car manufacturing, and it's a clear sign they'll fail as a business? And how an established car manufacturer would NEVER be in such a position? Yup...

The market shouldn't care about an ID.3 delay. VW could have everything fully in place, and cars at showrooms with a long line of customers carrying large bags of cash and they still wouldn't sell any of them until January 1st 2020 when the new fuel efficiency regulations come in. There are year-long waiting lists in Europe because the manufacturers have been targeting 2020, so VW will be able to sell plenty fast.

 

[GaryW]

The CT order charge is now $150. Is that new or did I miss the increase from earlier? I know it won’t have a big effect on cash flow but interesting anyhow.

I just checked. It’s still $100 for me in Florida.

 

[Green Pete]

You know that stocks usually reflect company's value in the future

Stocks usually reflect how the market perceives the company. If what you say is true the stock never would have dipped. The events I referenced are mostly unknown/not believed by the investing public as a whole. When those things happen teslas perceived value outside of this forum will likely match how people in this forum feel.

This forum alone cannot account for teslas stock price.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

11 million shares 2 and a half hours into trading AFTER all the volume already this week is pretty nuts.….on no news lol

Past hour though has been pretty non-stop selling pressure with significantly less buying volume.

 

[sundaymorning]

Good news keeps rolling:

Peter Mock on Twitter

France has updated its Bonus-Malus vehicle tax (blue is new, brown is old):

The malus system starts to kick in at vehicles whose emissions are not much worse than a Prius. The costs are now doubled, rising to an eye-watering €20k for vehicles with emission levels similar to a BMW 340i. The change to the bonuses now basically means that PHEVs no longer get €6 - only BEVs.

This is awesome news for Tesla

France and Germany: A neck-and-neck race on electric vehicle sales | International Council on Clean Transportation

As a result of the planned changes, purchasers of a high-emitting vehicle will need to pay a significantly higher taxwhen purchasing a new car from January 2020 onwards. For example, the buyer of a Volkswagen Touareg 3.0 Liter TDI (170 kW, automatic transmission) with a CO2 value of 173 g/km will have to pay an almost € 7,000 higher tax in 2020 compared to 2019.

The first change will involve a shift of the minimum malus threshold, the CO2 level above which vehicle owners have to pay a tax, from 117 to 110 g CO2 per kilometer (km), as shown in the figure below. The maximum threshold that limits the maximum tax a vehicle owner gets charged will also be tightened, by 18 g/km, to 173 g CO2/km. At the same time, the minimum malus to be added to the vehicle’s purchase price will increase from €35 to €50, and the maximum malus will rise from €10,500 to €12,500. The bonus payment will be restricted to only battery and fuel cell cars. Currently, all vehicles below 20 g CO2/km, qualify for a bonus. The maximum bonus will remain unchanged at €6,000.

@factcheck and @KarenRei I can’t comprehend this data to too well is there a way you can explain this in English for us? Which popular bmw Mercedes audi model’s will be fined and how much? And which models will get the subsidies?

 

[Nocturnal]

I know some people are worried that we are overvalued now, and it has been a fast rise but just compare it to the last few years. The company is in a far better place than at any time previously and we aren't far above the previous high points. I'm sure volatility will continue, but 400 dollars isn't nuts at all IMO.

 

[M3Rider]

Guess no need to tell everyone. Margin call time.

It would be highly appropriate for shorts to bid up the SP to the number 420 they call fraud.

 

[AudubonB]

Tesla Inc.'s Cash On Hand (yes, I know - it's supposed to be on a different line in the ledger, but still...) just increased by $100. I wonder if @Beltsbear was looking at, perhaps, a $Canadian order page? At any rate, it pushed me over the edge.


Oh, yes. There seems to have been a Big Bulge in our investment account since the end of last month, too.

 

[KarenRei]

Good news keeps rolling:

Peter Mock on Twitter

France has updated its Bonus-Malus vehicle tax (blue is new, brown is old):

The malus system starts to kick in at vehicles whose emissions are not much worse than a Prius. The costs are now doubled, rising to an eye-watering €20k for vehicles with emission levels similar to a BMW 340i. The change to the bonuses now basically means that PHEVs no longer get €6 - only BEVs.

This is awesome news for Tesla

Addendum:

Julien KRIVACSY on Twitter

Bonus is now:

• €6k for cars lower than €45k
• €3k for cars between €45K and €60K
• Nothing over €60K
• ... but no price limits on the €6k for H2 cars :Þ

Seems structured to favour cheaper French EVs. :Þ That said, a base-model SR+ is only €43,6k, so you could get that with a single lower-cost option and still get the full €6k. LR AWD starts at €53k, and P at €58,89k.

The post-purchase €1,8k acceleration boost would be a nice way to get more acceleration if you want performance but your options would push you over the €60k limit.

 

[Bobfitz1]

0.5s is a lot more than what it sounds like. But yes I would think about the other things I could spend $2000 on. If you look at it from the perspective of buying a sports car, that gain in speed is certainly worth $2k. If you’ve already bought the car and it’s currently in your hands though...

Absolutely worth 2K. 0 - 60 time and excitement/pleasure are not linear. A half second quicker gives you a bigger dose of what you already love about driving a Tesla. And, you never want less acceleration once you're used to quicker.

 

[printf42]

I am expecting WS to manufacture a “dip” to try harvest trailing stop orders sometime.

This is an advice:

1. Take a look at the 3 month chart
2. Think about what’s happening
3. Cancel trailing stop orders
4. Only sell when you really want to

 

[Curt Renz]

11 million shares 2 and a half hours into trading AFTER all the volume already this week is pretty nuts.….on no news lol

Past hour though has been pretty non-stop selling pressure with significantly less buying volume.

Many margin calls to short sellers would likely have been enforced by brokers during the first ninety minutes of trading. After that those manipulators hoping to pressure the shares downward may have felt freer to act. Rinse and repeat tomorrow.

 

[MP3Mike]

OT:


He was talking about the drive in the Model S to and from the service center, I don't think they have the Model 3 insured or licensed for the road yet since they just rebuilt it.

Nope. He was talking about his 2018 Model 3 that he purchased new. Not the salvage Model 3 that they repaired.

His Model S is a 2013 and has no AP. He had his shop foreman drive the Model S to the SC while he followed in his Model 3 to bring him back so they didn't have to get a loaner.

 

[NicoV]

So we still doing that Reykjavik meetup at $500?

I’ll be there!

 

[thait84]

Not necessarily stock related, but last night Tesla added about 200 cars at 11:30PM PST. By 8AM PST this morning 50 of those sold. (Who buys a last minute end of year car in the middle of the night? Maybe too much drinking and celebrating from TSLA ATHs?)

Tesla just sent out an email blast about quick delivery cars being available. Let's see how long it takes for the last 150 cars to disappear.

 

[Nocturnal]

How many AWD 3s have been sold to date? Even a small take rate on the 2k option could add up. Going forward that will be a solid bit of extra revenue that will be almost pure profit. More than the money itself though, it highlights Tesla's edge with OTA updates and software. Using the same hardware in AWD and P cars might have looked wasteful to legacy makers, but clearly it was a smart move.

Not necessarily stock related, but last night Tesla added about 200 cars at 11:30PM PST. By 8AM PST this morning 50 of those sold. (Who buys a last minute end of year car in the middle of the night? Maybe too much drinking and celebrating from TSLA ATHs?)

Tesla just sent out an email blast about quick delivery cars being available. Let's see how long it takes for the last 150 cars to disappear.

The economy and market are doing well in general. I guess some people do buy cars for Christmas.

 

[aacole]

11 million shares 2 and a half hours into trading AFTER all the volume already this week is pretty nuts.….on no news lol

Past hour though has been pretty non-stop selling pressure with significantly less buying volume.

I saw somewhere that a video on Tesla and Cybertruck specifically went viral among investors in Dubai. Perhaps massive buys from Sovereign Funds (see huge buy volume on open this week) causing short squeeze really driving the stock up right now. Also Shorts are starting to throw in the towel (at least for now). Once Wall Street Analysts become bullish, then you know the stock is overbought, Lol.....

 

[JRP3]

OT:

Nope. He was talking about his 2018 Model 3 that he purchased new. Not the salvage Model 3 that they repaired.

His Model S is a 2013 and has no AP. He had his shop foreman drive the Model S to the SC while he followed in his Model 3 to bring him back so they didn't have to get a loaner.

You are right, thanks for the correction.