Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVDRVN]

Remind me why anyone is going to buy one?

MY will be significantly better than advertised - ~33% reduced cost and weight batteries inbound. Plus FSD of course.

Because they are shipping then outside the US and what is left will go to compliance states and be in high demand form sort supply. The must have buyers will get them and they it will end up like looking like the LEAF sales curve.

 

[Green Pete]

Im curious if anyone else thinks this. My suspicion was that there would be a big update around Christmas so that not only would people be showing off their autopilot during the holidays, but also because it would be arriving WHILE people were with their families, to reenforce the idea of how OTA software updates work. So Tesla owners and their relatives can experience whatever this update is together for the first time. To me is marketing genius. Im curious if anyone else had been thinking that, or is thinking that now. Or if this is just coincidence.

(edit) Also, anyone else thinking there will be a FSD price increase coming soon?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Im curious if anyone else thinks this. My suspicion was that there would be a big update around Christmas so that not only would people be showing off their autopilot during the holidays, but also because it would be arriving WHILE people were with their families, to reenforce the idea of how OTA software updates work. So Tesla owners and their relatives can experience whatever this update is together for the first time. To me is marketing genius. Im curious if anyone else had been thinking that, or is thinking that now. Or if this is just coincidence.

(edit) Also, anyone else thinking there will be a FSD price increase coming soon?

Not trying to speak for everyone but I think we all here are trying to keep expectations in check about this FSD sneak preview

The fact that it will require HW 3.0 and won't just be a video has already exceeded my initial expectations when Elon first tweeted it. Having said that, if it's really impressive.....releasing it on Christmas Eve would be 2nd best marketing execution of the year from any company(1st place being Cybertruck)

 

[HG Wells]

The FSD demo is to sell more FSD.
Its as simple as that.

 

[Xepa777]

I FOUND WHERE THE FUD IS SPREADING!!!!

It's in the self-driving community. The shorts have firmly lost the "bankruptcy" and "manufacturing scalability" narratives...now they're moving onto the FSD fears.

certified clime change denier (u/Pomodoro5) - Reddit

Look at this post history of spamming the same link over and over. If you look at multiple posters' post histories in self driving communities there are several users that only really post anti-tesla comments. This is where the next battle will be. The battle for 4000.

 

[SpaceCash]

Some people predict a pullback to $330. I predict >$700 becxuase I am inversing TT007 cuz 007-700 duh. Tesla is now going to it's rightful place. I've been somewhat negative until it broke $200, that's when I knew that it was all a simulation and that we had to buy a reckless amount of shares

YOU'RE a simulation

 

[M3Rider]

I had these play shares in $HEAR that I bought because 95% of the float was shorted (I kid you not) and I thought they get burned. Opposite happened and it dropped 50%. I realised I had a losing trade so sold 30% of it to get those Jan $650's

So the moral of the story is that I should've cashed out 100% and bought 35 of those contracts, would be $50k of filthy lucre right now.

And I'm going to roll those suckers when it suits my fancy, and roll them again after that.

This is one of those mythical $1m trades from $1k - just watch me!

Cool. Let us know what you roll them into.
I have 1 and would not object it turning into $100k .

 

[Fact Checking]

So:

Elon Musk on Twitter

Elon Musk: "Holiday gift ideas"

Conspiracy weekend OT: "BATH SALTS" is, besides a designer drug, an anagram for:

• "Basth TSLA" (Iranian city),
• "Bahts TSLA" (Thai currency),
• "Batsh TSLA" (weird programming language),
• "Bhats TSLA" (Indian restaurant)

Which could mean that the TSLA run-up was due to buying pressure by a Thai-Iranian-Indian software company.

Alternatively Elon might have stumbled upon a 7 years old Reddit post:

Bath salts. - posted in the funny community​

 

[ReflexFunds]

I don't see it.

Amazon has built its entire success, just like Tesla and every other high growth modern company, on plowing all of its money back into the business. Growth first.

But Amazon has used a very particular MO, completely different from Tesla. What Amazon does is insource everything they can (like Tesla), and then (unlike Tesla) package up that capability and sell it to third parties. They have done that with retail web selling, warehousing, shipping, and most notably computer infrastructure (AWS). All of these have proven to be a wonderful way to grow. But the lucked out big time on AWS. Turned out *everybody* needed that, not just retail people. So they've been minting money on it. And now they've bought Whole Foods and will revolutionize their grocery store, then I assure you they will follow the same pattern and provide the infrastructure for every other grocery store out there that wants to buy in. And they're also trying to do it with healthcare / insurance. They've got a brilliant and apparently repeatable process.

Tesla, on the other hand, insources everything they can and then sits on it. Have you noticed Tesla providing seats to competitors? How about batteries? Electric motors? Autopilot technology? No, nothing. Tesla is keeping it for themselves and simply making the best product available. Their mission is not to be a great business, but rather to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. So they're focused on that.

I'm not saying that Tesla won't be hugely successful, perhaps even on a similar trajectory to Amazon. But the driving forces are different and there's no reason the results should be directly comparable. Amazon's approach turns whole industries into Amazon infrastructure with different sauce on top, happily generating profits for Amazon. Tesla can perhaps take over whole industries by being better, but it's not at all clear that they will have the enthusiastic help of their victims/partners. I think Tesla's approach will be much slower because they will be fought the whole way -- the process of domination will be much less efficient than Amazon's.

As @StealthP3D said, the exact business model doesn't really matter.
What matters is Tesla and the 2010-2014 Amazon are both huge companies still growing very quickly, with a culture of innovation and a prioritisation of higher future cash flow over profit today. All that ultimately matters for a company's true value is a company's future cash flow, it doesn't matter exactly how they get it or what they sell. Tesla needs to learn from Amazon how they convinced $1trn of investors to invest in distant future cash flow instead of short term profits.

Tesla definitely looks to me to be aiming to move far far faster than Amazon. Mostly because it is of paramount importance to the future of this planet that they do grow extremely quickly. The best way for Tesla to grow EV sales and renewable energy penetration as quickly as possible is to generate as much cash as they can as quickly as possible so this can be reinvested in growth.
I think Elon would be happy to partner with other companies to drive the Clean Energy transition if it accelerated the transition. However it is looking like Elon is now of the view that the Clean Energy transition will happen quickest if Tesla does it all itself and keeps the profits all to itself rather than handing a share of profit out to other companies. Because he knows Tesla will execute quickly and efficiently and he knows for sure he will spend the profits on Clean Energy growth but he can't be confident other companies will.

 

[lklundin]

It's the week-end, I am resting in an Italian Tesla Destination Charger Hotel and want to guess about something else than the TSLA SP.

So how about guessing when and for where Tesla will announce GF5?

It will have to be pretty soon, in order for Tesla to keep up its crazy high growth rate.

Just to throw something out there I will make this guess: 2020H1 will see GF5 announced for Eastern USA.

 

[M3Rider]

So:

Elon Musk on Twitter

Elon Musk: "Holiday gift ideas"

View attachment 491171​

Conspiracy weekend OT: "BATH SALTS" is, besides a designer drug, an anagram for:

• "Basth TSLA" (Iranian city),
• "Bahts TSLA" (Thai currency),
• "Batsh TSLA" (weird programming language),
• "Bhats TSLA" (Indian restaurant)

Which could mean that the TSLA run-up was due to buying pressure by a Thai-Iranian-Indian software company.

Alternatively Elon might have stumbled upon a 7 years old Reddit post:

Bath salts. - posted in the funny community​

Might be just TRowe getting their share back.

But the salts puzzle me. I'm pretty out of touch with meme world.

 

[M3Rider]

The FSD demo is to sell more FSD.
Its as simple as that.

It is not demo, it is a real thing, since only runs on HW3; maybe partial.

It might cause all FSD revenue recognized for HW3 cars... Anybody thinks that's a possibility for Q4? Do you have to recognize it as soon as it is rolled out or can be delayed to Q1?

 

[HG Wells]

It's the week-end, I am resting in an Italian Tesla Destination Charger Hotel and want to guess about something else than the TSLA SP.

So how about guessing when and for where Tesla will announce GF5?

It will have to be pretty soon, in order for Tesla to keep up its crazy high growth rate.

Just to throw something out there I will make this guess: 2020H1 will see GF5 announced for Eastern USA.

Georgia or the Carolinas.

 

[elasalle]

So:

Elon Musk on Twitter

Elon Musk: "Holiday gift ideas"

View attachment 491171​

Conspiracy weekend OT: "BATH SALTS" is, besides a designer drug, an anagram for:

• "Basth TSLA" (Iranian city),
• "Bahts TSLA" (Thai currency),
• "Batsh TSLA" (weird programming language),
• "Bhats TSLA" (Indian restaurant)

Which could mean that the TSLA run-up was due to buying pressure by a Thai-Iranian-Indian software company.

Alternatively Elon might have stumbled upon a 7 years old Reddit post:

Bath salts. - posted in the funny community​

Blood Bath ...
There is more Salts to add into the wounds ...

BEWARE TSLAQ

Looking forward to Monday Morning Market Ding Dong

 

[Maitri982]

I can’t think of any good reason that tesla shouldn’t keep building car factories in China. They crank them out like pez, largest car market in world, large and skilled workforce...etc etc

if government would keep giving them similar incentives, seems like a no brainer.

 

[elasalle]

I can’t think of any good reason that tesla shouldn’t keep building car factories in China. They crank them out like pez, largest car market in world, large and skilled workforce...etc etc

if government would keep giving them similar incentives, seems like a no brainer.

If battery capacity is solved. A new low end EV to support 3rd world / 3rd tier markets (say Asia, Africa, S.America) makes sense only from China ...

 

[wipster]

From my past experience, range range trading is just wallstreet waiting for execution of said company and the competition. If we look at how Tesla traded, extrapolation of potential profits if execution went perfectly were priced in. Then as real execution had hiccups, range trading started. For years Tesla'S execution was sometimes below and sometimes above wallstreet expectations. Most of time, Tesla lagged behind their road map timeline until recently. Giga 3 was executed perfectly, model Y seems to be executing ahead of schedule, and the model 3 is proving to be profitable with lower operational cost ever quarter as promised. Then couple this with the competition failing to execute with Porsche being the biggest showcase of legacy's inability to compete.


When a company relentlessly execute at or beyond expectations while the competition failed to execute, there will be no range trading.

Amd had two years of range trading until it didn't all due to relentless execution while the competition failed to execute.

It's the week-end, I am resting in an Italian Tesla Destination Charger Hotel and want to guess about something else than the TSLA SP.

So how about guessing when and for where Tesla will announce GF5?

It will have to be pretty soon, in order for Tesla to keep up its crazy high growth rate.

Just to throw something out there I will make this guess: 2020H1 will see GF5 announced for Eastern USA.

I say Australia...

Mainly 'cause I like to say Australia, but if GF5 could be joint auto/battery/panel/roof, they could transform that entire continent to 100% renewable in a decade or less.

Plus I really like Australia...

 

[HG Wells]

It is not demo, it is a real thing, since only runs on HW3; maybe partial.

It might cause all FSD revenue recognized for HW3 cars... Anybody thinks that's a possibility for Q4? Do you have to recognize it as soon as it is rolled out or can be delayed to Q1?

By demo I meant it would run for two weeks or for 10 minutes at a time.
Demo mode for people who have not bought FSD.

Could also be where it shows tracking of objects, stop signs etc but no active driving.

 

[Jo-]

Beyond ATH...TSLA soars

 

[Thekiwi]

It is a cell constrained car.

50k Units in 2020. Ford can manufacture 100k units. Cells for 50k units is the most Ford can acquire at their current price.

Ford needs to sell 30k units in Europe the balance going to the USA.

Calling it a Mustang promotes it as a performance vehicle, despite protest of hard core petrolheads.

Tesla will also likely starve North America to supply Europe to harvest credit revenue from the PSA/FCA pooling. This doesn't make Model 3/Y compliance vehicles.

I wonder if the conditions in 2nd half of 2020 might be ripe for Tesla to sell the Model 3 SR in Europe - given the increased margin enabled by the FCA deal, improving battery costs, and potential software upgrade revenue (from the base model to FSD & SR+ range and features). Perhaps only if model Y causes a bigger than expected cannibalisation in the US.