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It's really hard for anyone to predict exact delivery numbers, as well as the market's reaction to them. Macros could also influence things. With just one month until expiration, really anything could happen.

Also, none of us know your financial situation and how much $30k is to you, so you're in the best position to decide what to do.

Going into last Friday, after what I thought would be a profit taking final week before Xmas, after the substantial run up, I sat and watched us stay green and nice volume (while still not oversold).

So I decided to sit on my hands this week.

But when I made that decision I essentially accepted being wrong meant maybe I can salvage my original $1000 or whatever and go on with life, enjoying profit from my equity.

Now I want to hold since there are only 5 1/2 or 6 1/2 trading days until P&D, depending on Jan 2 or 3. I can’t find a single data point that gives me concern over P&D, although it seems many resources have stopped providing data in recent quarters. Stuff like the attached and social media anecdotes is all I’m really DD-ing.
 

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So, during run ups I tend to buy OTM calls with the intention of flipping them for a few extra free shares. Not any substantial amount of $ - say $200-$1000 in calls. Just kinda “meh if I lose it I’m not too worried and I don’t think it will ever be in the money so I’m not worried about that aspect.

This run up...I’m unsure what to do...because the $1,000 in options is now $30,000 in options and I’m coming ITM.

They’re all Jan 17s, so I can capture the P&D report If I choose.

I never partake in options to this quantity of dollars, and I’m legit unsure what to do. Any advices?
This happened to me, bought some meme calls as a joke and they all went 10-25x. I would sell some if I were you, don’t be too greedy with options. It’s a 30x gain.
 
Going into last Friday, after what I thought would be a profit taking final week before Xmas, after the substantial run up, I sat and watched us stay green and nice volume (while still not oversold).

So I decided to sit on my hands this week.

But when I made that decision I essentially accepted being wrong meant maybe I can salvage my original $1000 or whatever and go on with life, enjoying profit from my equity.

Now I want to hold since there are only 5 1/2 or 6 1/2 trading days until P&D, depending on Jan 2 or 3. I can’t find a single data point that gives me concern over P&D, although it seems many resources have stopped providing data in recent quarters. Stuff like the attached and social media anecdotes is all I’m really DD-ing.
Also people react irrationally to delivery reports. Seen it time and time again. The stock might recover after a week, but your option might not, due to its time value and IV crush. You can’t go broke by at least taking some profits off of a 30x gain :):)
 
After the big funding round that Rivian secured yesterday I dug a little deeper into the financial history of Rivian and Tesla. What surprised me is the massive difference in time and money it took (i.e. for Rivian will take) each of these companies to get to the first sold vehicle.

It took Tesla around 4-5 years and around 100 Million USD in financing to start producing the Roadster in 2008. 4 Years, the IPO, and another 250 Million USD investment later the Model S hit the road. (Tesla Funding Rounds | Startup Ranking)

Rivian, on the other hand, already exists for 10 years, is swimming in money now but still a year away from selling their first vehicle. They also started later - with better tech already being available.

While I like their branding and I think especially the SUV looks great, it makes my alarm bells ring when people throw extreme money at them without them having gathered real world production experience in the current team, product, and manufacturing constellation. How lofty does the valuation need to be to raise 3 Billion USD on no revenue (correct me if I am wrong)? And/Or how did the founders keep a meaningful stake in the company?

Am I missing something? Is there a way to see this in a positive light?

Really makes me appreciate how lean of a ship tesla is running. And how Elon stressed capital efficiency even after funding rounds.
 
Also people react irrationally to delivery reports. Seen it time and time again. The stock might recover after a week, but your option might not, due to its time value and IV crush. You can’t go broke by at least taking some profits off of a 30x gain :):)


I’d did shave off 1 contract and made my AWD $2,000 faster :)

Maybe I could shave off a few more and give her FSD too! Will have to capital gains so maybe have to wait until Jan 1 for tax purposes.

If we can somehow bump up again at open maybe that’s what I’ll do.

Thanks for the conversation :D
 
After the big funding round that Rivian secured yesterday I dug a little deeper into the financial history of Rivian and Tesla. What surprised me is the massive difference in time and money it took (i.e. for Rivian will take) each of these companies to get to the first sold vehicle.

It took Tesla around 4-5 years and around 100 Million USD in financing to start producing the Roadster in 2008. 4 Years, the IPO, and another 250 Million USD investment later the Model S hit the road. (Tesla Funding Rounds | Startup Ranking)

Rivian, on the other hand, already exists for 10 years, is swimming in money now but still a year away from selling their first vehicle. They also started later - with better tech already being available.

While I like their branding and I think especially the SUV looks great, it makes my alarm bells ring when people throw extreme money at them without them having gathered real world production experience in the current team, product, and manufacturing constellation. How lofty does the valuation need to be to raise 3 Billion USD on no revenue (correct me if I am wrong)? And/Or how did the founders keep a meaningful stake in the company?

Am I missing something? Is there a way to see this in a positive light?

Really makes me appreciate how lean of a ship tesla is running. And how Elon stressed capital efficiency even after funding rounds.

It is interesting that Tesla was able to secure Toyota and Mercedes contracts early on - providing some revenue.

But Rivian is uniquely positioned due to

Amazon will order 100,000 electric delivery vans from EV startup Rivian, Jeff Bezos says

I think that is why they can develop longer, slower, and without revenue.

Jeff Who is brilliant but he sure does manufacture slow. Gradatim Ferocitar. Hard to be a “first mover” (Blue Origin, Rivian) and take 15 years to make the product rofl.

Without similar partnerships like Tesla had, Rivian has to develop everything for their product at once, where Tesla could work on drivetrain and battery as a supplier before bringing S and later X to market.
 
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Nice pics of mostly empty factory parking lots. December 23 2019

I drive by that lot often since I live in Fremont. You can't miss it entering I-880 North from Mission Blvd which connects to I-680. There are many car carriers now so the outbound logistics lot doesn't fill-up like it used to. TSLA bought many car carriers for stock from a logistics company. They are painted white (carrier part) with red tractors labeled "Tesla". I see them everywhere, including on my frequent drives during Q4 on I-5 down to UCLA to visit my son in grad school.
 
After the big funding round that Rivian secured yesterday I dug a little deeper into the financial history of Rivian and Tesla. What surprised me is the massive difference in time and money it took (i.e. for Rivian will take) each of these companies to get to the first sold vehicle.

It took Tesla around 4-5 years and around 100 Million USD in financing to start producing the Roadster in 2008. 4 Years, the IPO, and another 250 Million USD investment later the Model S hit the road. (Tesla Funding Rounds | Startup Ranking)

Rivian, on the other hand, already exists for 10 years, is swimming in money now but still a year away from selling their first vehicle. They also started later - with better tech already being available.

While I like their branding and I think especially the SUV looks great, it makes my alarm bells ring when people throw extreme money at them without them having gathered real world production experience in the current team, product, and manufacturing constellation. How lofty does the valuation need to be to raise 3 Billion USD on no revenue (correct me if I am wrong)? And/Or how did the founders keep a meaningful stake in the company?

Am I missing something? Is there a way to see this in a positive light?

Really makes me appreciate how lean of a ship tesla is running. And how Elon stressed capital efficiency even after funding rounds.

I was thinking the same. As a wild guess, Rivian wouldn't sell more than 10% of the company at this point in time with relatively mature tech, a rock solid pipeline and plenty of cash in the bank. If T-Rowe Price can drop $1.3b in one round then the valuation would have to be north of $10b already. That's a third of Tesla's June 19 market cap. At that time Tesla was selling hundreds of thousands of vehicles per year, had two factories running at speed, another one (GF2) slowly ramping and yet still another one under construction based on immensely favourable terms and at lightning speed.

Just the production side doesn't do it justice. They have extreme brand loyalty, a huge knowledge and experience advantage, built out supercharger network, excellent product pipeline, fully realised supplier pipelines, etc. etc. etc

I'm sure Rivian will be great, but the value differential between the two is ridiculous.
 
I agree with @Fact Checking here, it doesn't make sense to diverge the feature rollout between HW2/2.5 & HW3 if they are not actually making any use of HW3 yet. This triggers customer discontent and the need to accelerate hardware retrofits for no reason.

It is relatively simple to just scale up or down the Neural Nets to make use of a larger compute budget.

As Karpathy wrote: "If you had a C++ code and someone wanted you to make it twice as fast (at cost of performance if needed), it would be highly non-trivial to tune the system for the new spec. However, in Software 2.0 we can take our network, remove half of the channels, retrain, and there — it runs exactly at twice the speed and works a bit worse. It’s magic. Conversely, if you happen to get more data/compute, you can immediately make your program work better just by adding more channels and retraining."

You would expect the features/traffic light recognition to still work on HW2/2.5 cars, but the accuracy just is not good enough given the compute and neural net size constraints. This would be why they have not activated it and why they closed the loophole that allowed you to use it. It also makes sense that they would not even show you the visualisations on HW2/2.5 cars if they don't think they are good enough to be useful and will just lead to hundreds of youtube videos of stupid recognition errors.

Some time ago Elon mentioned working on two different potential paths for Autopilot/FSD. I can't remember the exact quote but it was something along the lines of: one is simple and one is very complicated.

I would guess the complicated path was the huge AKnet neural net with multi camera, multi frame data etc.
I guess the simple path is just scaling up the current size of each smaller neural net in the current Autopilot system to run on a 20x larger compute budget and see what you can do with the increased detection accuracy.

In R&D cars I'm sure they are still also testing AKnet variations, and possibly also starting to work on neural nets based on full 5-10 second videos feeds and imitation learning. But maybe they are thinking these will not be required until further level 9s of accuracy sometime in the future, when they have their Project Dojo in-house AI training chip finished.

@verygreen
Further to this, I think it's fair to assume most of Tesla's Autopilot team is now focussed on training and testing the larger HW3 neural nets required for rollout of the FSD traffic lights and city streets features.

Prior to Advanced Summon release, I expect most of the team was working on neural nets that could still function on HW2/2.5 cars.
Tesla would have wanted to achieve all Enhanced Autopilot features within the HW2/2.5 constraints to prevent having to retrofit customers with the EAP and HW2/2.5 combination.

Now EAP is feature complete, Tesla will still be working on improving the accuracy and performance of the HW2/2.5 neural nets and policy software, but I expect most effort moved to working on HW3 nets and software. HW3 software may just be a simple increase in neural net channels relative to the HW2/2.5 software to increase compute up to 20x and most of the work is likely to be training and testing this system rather than writing new code.

Possibly the Deepscale acquisition was geared towards buying a team to continue working on optimising and improving the HW2/2.5 EAP neural nets, freeing up the existing Autopilot team to work on HW3 software and FSD features.
 
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Are you really claiming all Tesla has to do to make it complete is to remove the word beta?

I stand by my rule. Software may be released but it is never complete as in nothing more will be done to it unless it has been abandoned.

As a fellow engineering student stated "it doesn't have to be perfect just done enough."
Of course, it's nice if it's written in such a way that modifications don't mean rewriting from scratch because no one can follow the original code.
 
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@engle Just curious as to why hotels would hate Tesla? I'd actually think the opposite. I think Tesla is going to be great for mobility, reduce stress, give mobility to old, handicapped, and alcoholics. That would mean lots of additional hotel traffic. Just curious as to your reasoning, otherwise that's a good summary of the people that may loose on the road to EV and FSD. You could also put in auto repair (auto zone, advanced, reillys, etc), the two companies that make gas pumps (one owned by Danaher corp), not just the ICE but the ICE supply chain-some of which Tesla uses like paint, steel, aluminum and tool companies but in a shrinking market they all are losers, mechanic shops everywhere- used to be a good middle class job but it is going to be on the outs, truck driving unions.

So sure there are losers and this may be a very sad state of affairs for a young mechanic or truck driver or union employee in Detroit. So, lets moderate our gleefulness at big oils loss and have some compassion for the folks that will be sad casualties. Celebrate the better lives ahead for humanity in especially elderly, handicapped, folks with substance addictions, etc. Local tourism and dining out experiences should thrive with a new group of consumers. I'd think that lots of older people would be taking long road trips again- good for hotels.
 
@engle Just curious as to why hotels would hate Tesla? I'd actually think the opposite. I think Tesla is going to be great for mobility, reduce stress, give mobility to old, handicapped, and alcoholics. That would mean lots of additional hotel traffic. Just curious as to your reasoning, otherwise that's a good summary of the people that may loose on the road to EV and FSD. You could also put in auto repair (auto zone, advanced, reillys, etc), the two companies that make gas pumps (one owned by Danaher corp), not just the ICE but the ICE supply chain-some of which Tesla uses like paint, steel, aluminum and tool companies but in a shrinking market they all are losers, mechanic shops everywhere- used to be a good middle class job but it is going to be on the outs, truck driving unions.

So sure there are losers and this may be a very sad state of affairs for a young mechanic or truck driver or union employee in Detroit. So, lets moderate our gleefulness at big oils loss and have some compassion for the folks that will be sad casualties. Celebrate the better lives ahead for humanity in especially elderly, handicapped, folks with substance addictions, etc. Local tourism and dining out experiences should thrive with a new group of consumers. I'd think that lots of older people would be taking long road trips again- good for hotels.

@nativewolf Thanks! I did leave out the categories you added. As far as the hotel industry, a 500-mile EPA range vehicle with FSD will be affordable in the future. In the near future, say 2-3 years, one should be able to rent a 300-500 mile EPA range Cybertruck for less than a hotel room that can easily sleep two people in the back on a comfortable mattress. Imagine a road trip where you sleep in the back of your vehicle while it drives you overnight to the next destination on its air suspension. One just needs the appropriate safety restraint system & airbags in case a non-FSD vehicle slams into the Tesla.

This is more efficient than the hotel check-in / unpack / pack / check-out process. Why would you need a motel or hotel except to take a shower unless you can afford and want to stay at a resort? IMHO it will reduce the demand for road trip hotel rooms. Many locations will offer an hourly rate so people can take a shower if they don't feel comfortable showering at a health club such as 24-hour Fitness.

Actually I do have a lot of compassion for millions of hardworking people that have and will lose their jobs due to the 4th industrial revolution driven by automation, AI and ML (Machine Learning). Normally I don't want to inject USA politics into an international Tesla forum, but that is why I support UBI (Universal Basic Income of $1,000 USD/month for all 18+) that is being championed by Official Website of Andrew Yang for President. Andrew Yang calls it the "Freedom Dividend". $1,000 per month may not seem like much to people who live on the West or East coasts, but it goes pretty far in other states - especially if a family of 2-4 people is receiving it.

I grew up in the 1960s (lived 5 months in the 50's :rolleyes:). Besides reading everything I could get my hands on, I witnessed widespread riots triggered by racial discrimination, visited Little Rock, AR on a high school exchange program (Central HS), and watched assassination coverage and the horrible Vietnam War overseas on network TV. In the 70's I watched the summer Nixon impeachment hearings, and Richard's awkward wave goodbye before he boarded Marine One for the last time on the WH lawn.

Imagine the kind of widespread riots and violence that could be triggered by extreme financial disparity. Many people who have, are and will suffer financially from this tech revolution own or have easy access to weapons thanks to our misinterpreted second amendment (the definition of the word "arms" in "the right to bear arms"). Homelessness is up. Life expectancy has decreased because of the rise of opioid addiction and suicides. Unfathomable tragic mass shootings are on the rise. These are early indicators IMHO of societal problems ahead.

Did you know the USA and UK are the only governments left that have not been overthrown via violent means since 1776? Think about it. I recall there are only ~6 since ~1941.

It is in our own Declaration of Independence! (underlining is mine)

"
In Congress, July 4, 1776.

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.
"

- Thomas Jefferson.

If the 1% and corporations that control the USA do not give UBI to the masses, they may well lose everything eventually.

I'm doing business and personal end of year tax planning today so I'll check back here later...
 
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