Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Their rationale will be the declining EV market in China (35% or so drop during 2019) which in turn was due to declining government subsidies. Nio had a pretty terrible Q3 and consumer confidence in China was falling as of Nov last year.

But, much of this doesn't impact Tesla given their cars will be cheaper now than they were at the start of 2019, and Tesla wasn't benefiting from Chinese government subsidies (but now will). 21k is an extraordinarily low and naive estimate - it will be at least 5x that.

According to the article, their theory is production problems, not demand problem.

 

[Runarbt]

Their rationale will be the declining EV market in China (35% or so drop during 2019) which in turn was due to declining government subsidies. Nio had a pretty terrible Q3 and consumer confidence in China was falling as of Nov last year.

But, much of this doesn't impact Tesla given their cars will be cheaper now than they were at the start of 2019, and Tesla wasn't benefiting from Chinese government subsidies (but now will). 21k is an extraordinarily low and naive estimate - it will be at least 5x that.

imho 21k x 5 -105.000 is low and naive. They already have shown 3k/week production rates, if we are to believe what we have been told.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Perhaps, but Amazon wasn't facing any real competitors. I don't think Tesla really has the "IPhone moment" until FSD is feature complete.

From my understanding of the Chinese EV market most of the market was made up of garbage compliance cars made just to collect the subsidies. That junk portion of the market is dead without subsides but that will not have any real impact on vehicles at Tesla's quality/price point. ​

I think FSD feature complete could create the iPhone moment, but I don't think it is necessary. I think it could happen as soon as the launch of Model Y (if it hasn't already).

On another note, I'm working with a Tesla sales rep to be kept abreast of any discounted Model X inventory as my wife and I are finally ready to pull the trigger this year, and I am no longer content to rely on inventory website listings as they are well-known to be incomplete. I'm trying to hold out until at least battery investor day and/or the launch of plaid on the off-chance the lower offerings change, but if something with a significant discount comes along earlier we may jump on it.

As a potential bonus benefit, I figured there's a small chance I could also gain some insight into Tesla's plans and/or Q1 sales based on whether any such discounting occurs.

 

[dww12]

Perhaps, but Amazon wasn't facing any real competitors. I don't think Tesla really has the "IPhone moment" until FSD is feature complete.

From my understanding of the Chinese EV market most of the market was made up of garbage compliance cars made just to collect the subsidies. That junk portion of the market is dead without subsides but that will not have any real impact on vehicles at Tesla's quality/price point. ​

FSD is not an iphone moment, that’s fire. This summers ipace, etron, taycan was iphone.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

According to the article, their theory is production problems, not demand problem.

Right, but frankly it's all over the place - grasping at "market conditions" Tesla's "history of production delays" and other factors.

We'll see - but I don't think 100k is an outlandish estimate.

 

[RobStark]

2020 vision: Lower but stable sales in the U.S.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Perhaps, but Amazon wasn't facing any real competitors. I don't think Tesla really has the "IPhone moment" until FSD is feature complete....

I think the range differences for the same energy is an ipod moment especially with the new charge rates and Tesla layout vs others
FSD will be iphone

 

[Nocturnal]

I think FSD feature complete could create the iPhone moment, but I don't think it is necessary. I think it could happen as soon as the launch of Model Y (if it hasn't already).

On another note, I'm working with a Tesla sales rep to be kept abreast of any discounted Model X inventory as my wife and I are finally ready to pull the trigger this year, and I am no longer content to rely on inventory website listings as they are well-known to be incomplete. I'm trying to hold out until at least battery investor day and/or the launch of plaid on the off-chance the lower offerings change, but if something with a significant discount comes along earlier we may jump on it.

As a potential bonus benefit, I figured there's a small chance I could also gain some insight into Tesla's plans and/or Q1 sales based on whether any such discounting occurs.

Yes, that too. I'm cautiously optimistic that battery investment day might be "that moment". If Tesla can announce a step change in batteries, while their competitors can't even come close to current tech, it's game over.

FSD is not an iphone moment, that’s fire. This summers ipace, etron, taycan was iphone.

I go back and forth on that myself. While I personally feel that ICE =/= Tesla is the same as IPhone =/= Blackberry, I don't know if enough of the public realizes this yet. ​

 

[Curt Renz]

Currently:

--1.2% GM
--0.9% F
--0.5% FCAU
+0.4% TSLA

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

I go back and forth on that myself. While I personally feel that ICE =/= Tesla is the same as IPhone =/= Blackberry, I don't know if enough of the public realizes this yet.
​

I feel this, based on experience..except I never had a blackberry and only got an iphone in 2017 (2005-17 no celly yay!)
ICE vs 2012 S = blackberry vs iphone
2012 S vs 2020 3 = blackberry vs iphone
Public...the 'oh' moments of all the random folks that still don't know/understand that Tesla cars are all electric is pretty telling to the future
...& this is CA!!!​

 

[Mich]

Currently:

--1.2% GM
--0.9% F
--0.5% FCAU
+0.4% TSLA

also
+0.86% amazon
+0.84% fb
+1.94% google
+1.63% netflix
+1.53% uber
+0.41% tesla

 

[pyromatter]

 

[StealthP3D]

According to the article, their theory is production problems, not demand problem.

The fact that they said that makes me think they have operatives inside the Chinese auto supply chain and they plan to try to use them to disrupt the smooth functioning of the supply chain. Tesla has seen this before and I suspect they will be taking proper precautions.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

imho 21k x 5 -105.000 is low and naive. They already have shown 3k/week production rates, if we are to believe what we have been told.

Until that video above was posted, I hadn't seen any credible source showing 3k/week production, only 3k/week capacity assuming no supply chain delays (i.e., batteries).

 

[shootformoon]

Maybe I know too little about bond. But why these convertibles are mostly assumed to be delta hedged? Why can't real tesla investors outright bought them for upside while protecting the down side?

Assuming 80% of converts are delta hedged, these are the changes in $ short interest. The estimate for 6-Jan assume real shorts have maintained the same $ exposure since the last Nasdaq report in mid December. This suggests real short exposure has varied between $7.2bn and $8.3bn and is close to the lows currently. They have lost a very significant amount of $bns to maintain this position over the past year.

View attachment 497056

These are the changes in short shares outstanding. Real shorts have likely bought back 23.1 million shares since May. This is likely because many have fund $ exposure limits to Tesla and real shorts are capital constrained at $7-8bn. Real shorts would have had to buy ~4 million shares just since mid December just to maintain their same $ exposure to Tesla.

View attachment 497057

It's worth noting, this methodology predicts short interest of 25.3 million shares on 31-December-2019 (17.5m real shorts, 7.9m convert hedge). @ihors3 predicted 27.5 million short on 31-Dec. The real number will be reported on 10th Jan.

 

[Chocochip]

also
+0.86% amazon
+0.84% fb
+1.94% google
+1.63% netflix
+1.53% uber
+0.41% tesla

Look at you, comparing Tesla to tech companies, how silly! Don't you know Tesla is a car manufacturer today?

 

[StealthP3D]

2020 vision: Lower but stable sales in the U.S.
View attachment 497088

Haha. Long-term declining sales are normally the death knell for a company's valuation. But Ford's sales decline has been cleverly put into a good light by creating an artificial goal post of 17 million and showing how it hasn't declined under that goal post (yet). In a few short years, they will go further back, to when Ford sales entered the double digits, and highlight how sales are staying above that goalpost.

 

[jerry33]

Would someone please teach me what the "popcorn" reference is?

That's what the Custom truck engineers call the assembly line trucks. Trucks like Freightliner, Western Star, and Kenworth are all built to the customer's specs. So there is a lot of hand assembly and not much assembly line. Pacific Truck built really custom trucks with no assembly line at all. Trucks for very specific purposes. Volvo builds a few models of truck and there's only a few choices--so they come out like popping popcorn.

 

[Rarity]

Is he saying that Tesla leased the factory in Shanghai Nangang? It looks like a lot of cars are being transferred in/out of the port through there (mostly not Teslas), but maybe the factory is currently unused/underused.

 

[dww12]

Yes, that too. I'm cautiously optimistic that battery investment day might be "that moment". If Tesla can announce a step change in batteries, while their competitors can't even come close to current tech, it's game over.

I go back and forth on that myself. While I personally feel that ICE =/= Tesla is the same as IPhone =/= Blackberry, I don't know if enough of the public realizes this yet. ​

Iphone only counts when your 80yr old parents have one, but the moment has happened. When my wife drives up to her semi rural Texas school in her white/white M3P and the kids jump up and down to go for a ride in it but there was crickets for the Volt, the iphone moment has happened. It just has not happened for boomers yet (who have the $$). All her kids know exactly what it is, other teachers not so much.