That 17 million number is for all US light-vehicle sales, not just Ford. Ford just happened to be the last to report their 2019 numbers, which put the total over 17 million.Haha. Long-term declining sales are normally the death knell for a company's valuation. But Ford's sales decline has been cleverly put into a good light by creating an artificial goal post of 17 million and showing how it hasn't declined under that goal post (yet). In a few short years, they will go further back, to when Ford sales entered the double digits, and highlight how sales are staying above that goalpost.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Tesla Daily podcast.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
They have shown 28/hr rate. They made only 1k.
3k/wk = 35k / quarter. I guess they will get to this 3k/wk in a quarter or two. So, 100k in 2020 is actually a good conservative estimate.
Pezpunk
Active Member
Another data point along this axis:
I play ROBLOX with my kids; it's an incredibly popular gaming platform that hosts millions of user-created games (granted some of these "users" are teams of semi-professional developers). The games tend to be simple, but diverse. Some of these games have many millions of players, most of them children. The developers have their finger on the pulse of what kids are into and cater to them as best they can. It's a little like youtube, in that they are scrambling for clicks in a way.
Anyway, the point is, what I find incredibly telling is that within a couple weeks of the Cybertruck announcement, EVERY game on ROBLOX that featured vehicles of any kind was scrambling to add the Cybertruck to their playable vehicles list, and featuring it in their thumbnail image of the game.
...and so on.
No other car announcement gets this kind of response. Not Ferrari, not Bugatti, not Porsche. Nobody. Tesla is the one and only car company that has this kind of cachet with youngsters.
"Patience is bitter, but it’s fruit is sweet" — Aristotle
Makes sense to me.
I wonder if they’ll manage to get any Model Y out the door by the end of the year. Seems impossible but just look at what the GF3 plot looked like 1 year ago.
Meh, it’s only because lower polygon count makes the game run faster.Another data point along this axis:
I play ROBLOX with my kids; it's an incredibly popular gaming platform that hosts millions of user-created games (granted some of these "users" are teams of semi-professional developers). The games tend to be simple, but diverse. Some of these games have many millions of players, most of them children. The developers have their finger on the pulse of what kids are into and cater to them as best they can. It's a little like youtube, in that they are scrambling for clicks in a way.
Anyway, the point is, what I find incredibly telling is that within a couple weeks of the Cybertruck announcement, EVERY game on ROBLOX that featured vehicles of any kind was scrambling to add the Cybertruck to their playable vehicles list, and featuring it in their thumbnail image of the game.
...and so on.
No other car announcement gets this kind of response. Not Ferrari, not Bugatti, not Porsche. Nobody. Tesla is the one and only car company that has this kind of cachet with youngsters.
/s
Pezpunk
Active Member
maybe that's Elon's plan all along. replace Earth's current auto fleet with low-poly cybertrucks, thus increasing the framerate of the simulated universe we live in.
SoGA Fan Club
Member
Haha. Long-term declining sales are normally the death knell for a company's valuation. But Ford's sales decline has been cleverly put into a good light by creating an artificial goal post of 17 million and showing how it hasn't declined under that goal post (yet). In a few short years, they will go further back, to when Ford sales entered the double digits, and highlight how sales are staying above that goalpost.
Well, the only good news for Ford is that the high margin F150's sales increased, while low-margin car sales fell. I'm not going to make fun of any manufacturer's sales figures until Tesla is actually even in the same ballpark. Hopefully, that will be very soon.
Krugerrand
Meow
From the article:
"The tough market could mean that Tesla sells just 21,000 China-built Model 3s this year, according to LMC Automotive".
Tesla sold about 14,000 Model 3 in just 2 months (Nov + Dec) in China.
What kind of forecasting gymnastics gets you to 21,000 in all of 2020?
Interpretive gymnastics.
I have to agree with LMC Automotive here, that Tesla will sell 21k Tesla's, starting tomorrow and ending at New Year's Midnight.(*)From the article:
"The tough market could mean that Tesla sells just 21,000 China-built Model 3s this year, according to LMC Automotive".
Tesla sold about 14,000 Model 3 in just 2 months (Nov + Dec) in China.
What kind of forecasting gymnastics gets you to 21,000 in all of 2020?
(*) Chinese New Year is January 25th.
It's a great post and very true. After all, when we talk about stock price rises it's normally as a %age rather than an absolute figure. Look at today for example, 2/3% up, but that translates to $3, the same 2/3% rise last June equated to $1.30, this is compound interest and we're seeing it in action the last 6 months.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I have a hard time interpreting comparative range differences as an iPhone moment. Then again, to me an iPhone moment is when a new product arrives, and a large swath of the population simultaneously experiences:
- "it's a new world - this new product reinvents or redefines it's market"
AND
- "I can't remember what yesterday's world was like. There is today and the future, and there is yesterday / the past, and I'm already having trouble remembering what yesterday / the past was like".
For me personally, the Tesla related iPhone moment was when I took my first test drive of a Model S in 2012. I do still drive gas engine cars from time to time, so I am reminded of what the world was like before that test drive. However, it's pretty easy for me to segment life into before test drive and after test drive.
The additional 6 months I waited / searched for a Roadster so I could again experience life after test drive was agonizing.
But that was a personal moment - it lacks the real iPhone moment because society as a whole hasn't experienced that life before / after experience. Even with all the Model 3's on the road today, it's still mostly the case that people haven't experienced that before / after experience. I think there are 2 markets where that shift may have happened - California and Norway. The car market is big and expensive enough that having the iPhone moment be dramatically stretched out in time and/or having it happen country by country, market by market, sounds very reasonable to me.
So I think it's likely that Tesla's worldwide iPhone moment is still coming, and there's a good chance that Model Y will be an important component for that. It might also be that there's a big and important enough subset of the market that Cybertruck will also be needed to jointly create that time before and time after dynamic.
Last edited:
Electrek - 1.5 hours ago: https://ww.electrek.co/2020/01/06/tesla-plans-future-vehicles-gigafactory-4-new-details/
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Really? As an investor, I'm far more interested in the rate of growth than the absolute sales. Show me a company with continuously shrinking sales and I'll show you a company that is declining in value.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Well, maybe they wouldn't be declining so much if they could manufacture their vehicles in a timely fashion. But I guess manufacturing is really hard[1] so we shouldn't expect to much of them. I'm sure they'll figure it out in eventually.
Getting an interceptor for $38k is a good deal compared to an M3P I suppose. Until you have to pay for fuel. And maintenance. Or have to deal with the emergency brake engaging while driving.
Cops wonder about Police Interceptor SUVs disrupted as Ford manages manufacturing issue
1) Elon Musk quote from Autonomy Day
This is funny:
Third Row Tesla
And in other news: I thought the rocket launch isn't until later today/tonight? Did someone press a button or...?
Third Row Tesla
And in other news: I thought the rocket launch isn't until later today/tonight? Did someone press a button or...?
The future is grim
Sorry to post this, it's grim and maybe heavily slanted towards the worst outcomes, but the the breadth of what humans are doing to the earth is hard to wrap your mind around and this does as good a job as anything else i have read at covering it.
the general apathy of humanity and our inability to fathom longer span major macro events where causation is clear is kind of hard to understand.
If there is to be any hope, and I am not sure there is...companies like Tesla must succeed. Even SpaceX could be important here if some outer space related solution (short of humanity "moving to mars") could possibly help in cooling our earth.
We are well past the point of no return on climate change. I don't think anyone wants to admit that yet, but the only real solution we have left is massive-scale carbon sequestration on a planet-wide level that I don't think we have even invented the technology for yet. We better invent it soon. All the scientists are in consensus that even if we reduce our net carbon emissions to zero by 2025, the planet will still warm to the 1.5 degrees limit that has been arbitrarily set as the value where nothing seems to change from how things are today. There is no way in hell we will have our net carbon emissions at zero in 5 years. Yes, we are f*cked unless we attempt a Snowpiercer solution and hopefully not freeze the planet by accident while attempting it.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
