Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Because for extremely bullish longs who are confident in the mission, Elon, and Tesla’s execution, the primary risk becomes profits being taken off the table too soon.

We know Tesla/Elon doesn’t enjoy dealing with the distraction of the markets - if Elon could take Tesla private himself/via SpaceX, why wouldn’t he?

Elon already explained that his main reason for not taking private (yes he ha the funds) was that it would exclude many of the current retail and overseas investors. This was unacceptable for him - he knows we're long investors and doesn't want to kick us out:

Edit - I dug out the relevant tweet...

 

[wipster]

She's real fun my 451
My 4... 50... 1...
(and .54)

my apologies to Brian Wilson

 

[capster]

The rights to make a film out of Consider Phlebas were acquired by (turns to Google as his old brain can't recall...), by, by, nope can't find it... Anyway, in the meantime, Amazon has now acquired the rights and are making a series out of it.

Problem is, when did you last see a film or TV adaptation that gave any justice to any book? There's nothing as grand as the imagination and the spaces between the words.

Of course you know that Elon is a huge Banks fan too, I hope...?

OT: I thought the Harry Potter movies did right by the books.

 

[StealthP3D]

I follow a lot of shorts. One of them started to talk about S&P inclusion (these guys are 6 months behind longs on crucial info, thanks to their block list). His conclusion is Q1 won't see positive earnings. When they realize Q1 could be positive, they will panic.

If they are not already panicking, they are even dumber than I thought.

I had no idea that was even possible...

 

[Prunesquallor]

Paging Ray Bradbury

Apropos. The shorts have essentially made themselves illiterate by blocking (burning).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Lol! FTFY:

• Hyperchangeventilate
• Now You Know Blather Endlessly
• InsideEVRUmors.com

 

[Prunesquallor]

So what happened @Papafox? The algorithms went offline around 14:00 CST.

 

[Curt Renz]

Today’s closing:

--1.32% GM
--0.54% F
--0.28% FCAU
+1.92% TSLA (all-time closing high again today)

 

[JustMe]

Oh man, if you have a burner twitter account go check the TSLAQ circle-J started by BloodsportCap. They are all posting their "credentials" and crowing about their collective intelligence.

TS charts got a PHD at 25 btw, scientist, senior exec, but drives a volt. lol

They are not, at least not publicly but I assume there is a ton of peer pressure built up that would immediately destroy anyone who shows weakness. Like a pack of hyenas turning on an injured one. ​

Credentials don’t mean jack if you’ve got a bat in your belfry.

 

[Veritas1980]

TS charts got a PHD at 25 btw, scientist, senior exec, but drives a volt. lol

I work a lot with scientists with and without PhDs in my daily work, trust me, they are not necessarily smart people just because of their titles.

 

[defc0n]

Your prediction won't be wrong, just laughably late. Disruption happens faster than most people can comprehend. It only seems slow because we wake up each day to a largely unchanged world.

Will revisit within 18 years. I don’t think it will be done by charging batteries in pitstops, though. Endurance racing is one of the very few advantages petrol refueling has over electric vehicles right now. It should be one of the last hold outs (ignoring long distance air transport too). I think 18 years will be somewhat close.

Maybe a battery pack that can go the full race distance without recharge... I will have to think about feasibility of that some more. While maintaining over 200mph race average too of course...

 

[Mader Levap]

If they are not already panicking, they are even dumber than I thought.

Not necessarily. As others noted, blocklist locks them in in their bubble and severely restricts any information even remotely connected to reality that would be helpful for reassessing their position.

 

[Mokuzai]

Maybe a battery pack that can go the full race distance without recharge...

I could see endurance racing one place where battery swapping becomes necessary.

 

[GOVA]

Well, 451 unlocks the first door in System Shock. Once you pass it, it is a trip.

 

[kbM3]

Q4: 86,958
Knock off 1k for GF3
85,958
divide by 7k = 12.28 weeks or 86 days
Q4 only had 92 days total.
So if Fremont had more than 5 down days, they averaged 7k per week.
Further, they have increased production every quarter of 2019, so exiting would be expected to be higher than entering.
85,958 / 90 * 7 = 6,685 (only two off days) worst case average rate
So if the rate increased by 630 cars per quarter (49 per week), they exited at > 7k/wk.
@Artful Dodger's data shows a consistent 900 car per quarter rate increase

I don't think anyone has ever said that average production including down days would be 7k. It is the run rate.

Q4: 86,598 or ~7,250/week over 12 working weeks. (There are two major holidays in Q4.)

Weeks are a very well defined term.
1 week = 7 days. There are on average a little over 13 weeks / quarter.

If the industry defines a working week as 50 / year, and everyone agrees when targets are set at a weekly rate, the term “working week” is implied and clearly understood, then I cede this point. I have no interest in being pedantic or a stickler.

However, it’s not that relevant either way. There’s very little difference in Fremont achieving 6.85k / week, or 7.08 / week. It is largely irrelevant. My main point was that from China’s statements, I’m guessing the run rate is actually 3.36k week, which gives them more headroom, and will make it far quicker to achieve >= 3000 / week, because it doesn’t need to include the last part of the S curve in the production ramp.

I.e. I’m saying I believe hitting an average of 3k / week (real not working), may happen quicker than expected. Not really that important either way, other than the optics of achieving round numbers and goal meeting to Wall St. And I brought it up mainly because @EVNow is only predicting 35k / quarter, where I believe 40k / quarter is a more likely steady state.

 

[StealthP3D]

Paging Ray Bradbury

451F, the temperature at which books burn. Paper will self-ignite at 451F. In the old days market makers and brokers would keep their records of shareholders, trades, options contracts, etc. in their "books". Now they still keep "books", but they are electronic books.

I think they are starting to self-ignite!

 

[SpaceCash]

If they are not already panicking, they are even dumber than I thought.

I had no idea that was even possible...

Not necessarily. As others noted, blocklist locks them in in their bubble and severely restricts any information even remotely connected to reality that would be helpful for reassessing their position.

Kowtowing to a blacklist that stupid, means they're stupid

 

[Skryll]

Yeah, I think that's the most bizarre part. (re teslaq blocklists creating echochamber censoring out critical information that could debunk their myths)
​

The best explanation I have for that is that somebody organized it to keep the momentum going for as long as possible and to sell them puts that will expire worthless now that tesla took off. Kind of like real estate moguls denying climate change while making the right moves to benefit from people that are caught unaware that the property they just bought will be severely affected in the near future.​

 

[Lessmog]

I follow a lot of shorts. One of them started to talk about S&P inclusion (these guys are 6 months behind longs on crucial info, thanks to their block list). His conclusion is Q1 won't see positive earnings. When they realize Q1 could be positive, they will panic.

If they are not already panicking, they are even dumber than I thought.

I had no idea that was even possible...

Not necessarily. As others noted, blocklist locks them in in their bubble and severely restricts any information even remotely connected to reality that would be helpful for reassessing their position.

Kowtowing to a blacklist that stupid, means they're stupid

It has long been theorized what it would look like to pass the event horizon at a block hole. Now we must wonder if they can ever tell us ...

 

[Artful Dodger]

imho 21k x 5 -105.000 is low and naive. They already have shown 3k/week production rates, if we are to believe what we have been told.

I think GF3 production may unfold something like this during 2020:

• Jan 1st-23rd: 1K/wk (1 shift, 5 days/wk + 1 day trg)
  
• Jan 24-Feb 8: New Year Festival shutdown
• Feb 9 - Mar 31: 2K/wk (2nd shift, 6 days/wk)
• Apr 1st - Jun 30: 3K/wk (locally src'd bty cells)
• Jul 1st - Sep 30: 4K/wk (cont'd rampup)
• Oct 1st - Dec 31: 5K/wk (cont'd rampup)

This is a very cautious rampup schedule, which should enable Tesla China to transition from 30% local production now to 100% by end of 2020.

The final tally for 2020? 193K Model 3s produced. Gets big fast, don't it?

Best part is GF3 enters 2021 at 5K/wk Model 3, and begins ramping Model Y. Let's double the ramp giving credit for the learning curve. That's 5K Model Ys by Jun 30, 2021 or and avg of 2.5K for 2021H1, and 5K for the 2021H2.

The final tally for 2021? 250K Model 3s + 188K Model Ys. Gets big fast, don't it?

2022? 500K, but also ever increasing GMs as Tesla integrates vertically and gains production and logistics experience.

Cheers!