Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BBone]

I met a guy who has a 50 mile Leaf he bought for only $5,000. He drives it on long trips by hitting every fast charger he can find as well as level 2 chargers and complains how expensive Electrify America chargers are. While he is not a boon for EVs in general, he is a walking billboard for the longer range available in the model 3. But you have to admit a $5,000 car is pretty inexpensive. Now if he would just use it for the trips it is designed for.

If he could use the Tesla network in another five... no, ten years he could stop every 49 miles and charge.

Tesla price target raised to $612 from $385 at Oppenheimer TSLA - The Fly

Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch raised his price target for Tesla to $612 from $385 and keeps an Outperform rating on the name. The stock closed Friday down $3.19 to $478.15. While Tesla "has stumbled through growing pains," the company has reached "critical scale" sufficient to support sustainable positive free cash flow, Rusch tells investors in a research note titled "What to Do Now with TSLA Shares?" Further, the analyst believes the company's "risk tolerance, ability to implement learnings from past errors, and larger ambition than peers are beginning to pose an existential threat to transportation companies that are unable or unwilling to innovate at a faster pace." Tesla has key advantages in powertrain design, battery technology, advanced driver-assistance systems fleet size, roadmap to energy independence offerings, and consumer enthusiasm that can translate into material operating leverage, share gains, and market disruption as renewables and autonomy trends accelerate, contends Rusch.

@Mike Smith Awesome Mike. This is the highest of the sell side analysts that I've heard. Hopefully a catalyst for the fffive-hundred that we're looking for.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

There's a new story this morning in many media (just google) from PA Consulting in relation to CO2 emissions and fees. It does give some historic numbers and a projection for 2021. Have to go out so don't have time to take a closer look right now.

It does forecast FCA cost for 2021 as 2.461 billion euros.

 

[JusRelax]

Confusing for those that want to follow overseas or foreign market prices, just call it NIO

Added in NIO for clarification, thanks

 

[KarenRei]

Confusing for those that want to follow overseas or foreign market prices, just call it NIO

The joke is that the media is often so clickbaity that they often refer to NIO as "China's Tesla" rather than its actual name because anything that includes Tesla in the headlines gets clicks.

 

[scaesare]

Headroom is going to be very poor. The reason is that the Cybertruck has lots of headroom because with no drivetrain, the seats can be lowered a lot. In a car, there's no room to lower the seats, so to make it practical the roof will have to be raised.

I don't understand this line of reasoning.

The Cybertruck (is assumed) to have a drive train every bit as much as the sedans do: A motor/gearbox/differential combination oriented in-line with the axles(s).

There is no driveshaft/transmission/transfer-case running length-wise under the seating position of either platform, as there is with traditional ICE vehicles. There is, however, a battery pack there on the sedans (and assumedly on the truck).

So it would seem that the height of the seats would have nothing to do with the drivetrain, but instead the height of the pack. And indeed the Roadster, having double-height pack, was noted to have seats that seemed to be sitting right on top of an elevated floor (rather than on a more traditional raised rail structure).

 

[Unpilot]

CNBC leads with the Ballie Gifford might sell spending much more ink on that....then a footnote that Oppenheimer has raised target.

What freaking twits they are.

 

[winfield100]

OT
This probably has implications for Tesla stock price as SpaceX and Tesla are tightly linked in many minds (small m)
(I remember watching Challenger in real-time and it was desolation)

anyhoo,
Saturday, January 18, 2020, 8am EST (GMT-5)
This weekend!
A SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule will perform an inflight abort test (how casually they write this) during maximum aerodynamic pressure of launch, the Falcon 9 will be destroyed

$50 million rocket (dummy 2nd stage) blown up during MaxQ to ensure crew safety/survival
?around 1 minute into launch, ‘ka-blooey, massive fireball, tiny capsule accelerates away to safety’?
?A white Swan event for Tesla perhaps, “free” press around the planet prior to earnings release

You might want to watch in real-time also if you cannot get to the Cape
NextSpaceflight.com

I seriously expect it to positively affect the stock price by
“Hm, can I buy stock in SpaceX? (Fidelity), no, well what else does Elon Musk own?”

 

[TradingInvest]

China's Tesla (NIO) up around 6% currently, compared to Tesla up less than 2.5%

Calling NIO “China’s Tesla” is so confusing. We now have a real Tesla in China. For a moment I thought TSLA started trading in China.

 

[T@oo]

OT
This probably has implications for Tesla stock price as SpaceX and Tesla are tightly linked in many minds (small m)
(I remember watching Challenger in real-time and it was desolation)

anyhoo,
Saturday, January 18, 2020, 8am EST (GMT-5)
This weekend!
A SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule will perform an inflight abort test (how casually they write this) during maximum aerodynamic pressure of launch, the Falcon 9 will be destroyed

$50 million rocket (dummy 2nd stage) blown up during MaxQ to ensure crew safety/survival
?around 1 minute into launch, ‘ka-blooey, massive fireball, tiny capsule accelerates away to safety’?
?A white Swan event for Tesla perhaps, “free” press around the planet prior to earnings release

You might want to watch in real-time also if you cannot get to the Cape
NextSpaceflight.com

I seriously expect it to positively affect the stock price by
“Hm, can I buy stock in SpaceX? (Fidelity), no, well what else does Elon Musk own?”

Last time someone reported that the upper stage "has lost it's shell" but mission was a success anyway. I assume this time we get reports from a professional journalist how "the rocket blew up but the tip of the rocket managed to escape".

 

[jerry33]

I don't understand this line of reasoning.

The Cybertruck (is assumed) to have a drive train every bit as much as the sedans do: A motor/gearbox/differential combination oriented in-line with the axles(s).

There is no driveshaft/transmission/transfer-case running length-wise under the seating position of either platform, as there is with traditional ICE vehicles. There is, however, a battery pack there on the sedans (and assumedly on the truck).

So it would seem that the height of the seats would have nothing to do with the drivetrain, but instead the height of the pack. And indeed the Roadster, having double-height pack, was noted to have seats that seemed to be sitting right on top of an elevated floor (rather than on a more traditional raised rail structure).

I'm assuming the photo of the Cybercar has the roof peak at about the same height as the S (or very slightly higher) because that's what it looks like. (The alternative is that the Cybercar is much larger than the picture makes it appear). So the headroom looks as if it will be very limited--particularly in the rear because the seating height is not going to be materially different that the S. The Cybertruck can have the seating position much lower than an ICE truck because there's no longitudinal drive train. The longitudinal drive train requires ICE trucks to have the cabin floor much higher (I'm thinking 50 cm minimum). So even though the peak of the Cybertruck is the same height as the top of an ICE truck, the headroom is much greater.

 

[Todd Burch]

Was the end of last week a headfake for shorts (such as Spiegel?) who thought a bubble was popping and reinitiated a short position? Will they get destroyed by additional gains this week? Stay tuned!

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I'm assuming the photo of the Cybercar has the roof peak at about the same height as the S (or very slightly higher) because that's what it looks like. (The alternative is that the Cybercar is much larger than the picture makes it appear). So the headroom looks as if it will...
...the headroom is much greater.

I’m assuming the “photo” ...isn’t a photo. Every bit as fictional as the Tesla (Karen trigger warning!) unimog.

 

[Unpilot]

Was the end of last week a headfake for shorts (such as Spiegel?) who thought a bubble was popping and reinitiated a short position? Will they get destroyed by additional gains this week? Stay tuned!

And to think I used to hate Monday

 

[Tslynk67]

Pfff, my strategy of dumping half my options last week doesn't look like the best!

Still, I only sold half, way for huge profits too and I've a substantial amount of wonga in my trading account, which isn't usually the case, so maybe I'll sit on that, wait and see a bit...

 

[scaesare]

I'm assuming the photo of the Cybercar has the roof peak at about the same height as the S (or very slightly higher) because that's what it looks like. (The alternative is that the Cybercar is much larger than the picture makes it appear). So the headroom looks as if it will be very limited--particularly in the rear because the seating height is not going to be materially different that the S. The Cybertruck can have the seating position much lower than an ICE truck because there's no longitudinal drive train. The longitudinal drive train requires ICE trucks to have the cabin floor much higher (I'm thinking 50 cm minimum). So even though the peak of the Cybertruck is the same height as the top of an ICE truck, the headroom is much greater.

I think your original post was confusing, you were talking about how low you could make the seats in the cybertruck vs. the hypothetical cybercar:

Headroom is going to be very poor. The reason is that the Cybertruck has lots of headroom because with no drivetrain, the seats can be lowered a lot. In a car, there's no room to lower the seats, so to make it practical the roof will have to be raised.

They both have no drivetrain under the seats, so should be able to have similar height.

Roofline height is obviously the issue. And incidentally in an exoskeleton designed to carry the vehicle weight like a truss, the vertical dimension has an important engineering impact.

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR STRONG SUGGESTION

I am not very happy about the thought of seeing in future posts any phrases like “China’s Tesla” - I.e., that one, “India’s Tesla” or so forth - unless they are specifically referencing some mischievous media article. The reasons for the above are aptly shown in recent posts.

 

[StealthP3D]

Confusing for those that want to follow overseas or foreign market prices, just call it NIO

But we are striving to be professionals. We want to be just as clear as professional journalists who explain things in a way that the common person can easily understand. "China's Tesla" makes the relative standing of NIO clear to those who didn't know Tesla has counterparts in other areas of the world.

 

[HG Wells]

In case you haven't noticed

 

[Aeon]

80 boring minutes just to prepare for a little pre-open jumpy-jump.
Here we go gals & guys.

 

[carterm2]

But we are striving to be professionals. We want to be just as clear as professional journalists who explain things in a way that the common person can easily understand. "Xxxxxx Tesla" makes the relative standing of NIO clear to those who didn't know Tesla has counterparts in other areas of the world.

I think the folks at Ford are starting to call it Tesla's China.