Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Davmal]

People will fear to take public transport, China demand will go through roof, it happened during SARS.

This time EV will be in advantage, since in most big cities EV don’t need to wait for license plates quota.

Not advice.

hmmm....bioweapon defense mode you say......

 

[Singer3000]

Read Karens excellent recap and listened about halfway through the podcast.

Must say how much more comfortable Elon seems compared to when he's doing a presentation. Not only much less stuttering but his whole persona seems so much more relaxed. Even having read the recap I feel it's a good idea to actually listen to the whole thing.

Also, not only does the six podcasters manage to shut up and not talk over themselves and Elon which was a main concern for me but also seems to have prepared as to who asks what and when. Well done.

So, not much news so far but still important to get much of this in Elons own words.

Compare Elon’s relaxed mood in this to his slightly edgy showing on the Sept 2018 Rogan podcast. Seems happier in his skin and with less weight of the world on his shoulders if you ask me.

It was interesting that Kimbal said the near double default of SpaceX and Tesla in 2008 couldn’t compare to the travails of 2018.

Have to say I was hoping for a bit more off the cuff info on FSD and Starlink/Starship. Perhaps that comes in #2. The Maxwell comments whetted the appetite for Battery Day for sure, dampened a bit by the reluctance to specify a date beyond “hopefully we’ll be able to do it in a few months”.

 

[Tslynk67]

Any news on Davos summit?

Yeah, the orange idiot told everyone to Pay no attention to “doom prophets” obviously referring to Greta.

Greta, who was in the audience to hear the moron rant, later addressed the audience to point out that the world was on fire, literally.

 

[Chickenlittle]

You are not supposed to drive any car, including a Tesla, like a slot car racer (e.g. either full acceleration or full brakes). If you are gentle on the pedal, an instance of pedal confusion won't do anything. I have had one instance of pedal confusion (the second or third day I had the car). Went forward about a metre. Then I thought "Oh, so that's what pedal confusion feels like". Never happened again. (Of course, Tesla could have done like the Prius did and have a continuous beep every time you were in reverse. I'll bet many people would just love that

I have had experience of my foot overlapping the break and accelerator pedal and can state the car does not go anywhere and you are warned

 

[larmor]

Yeah, the orange idiot told everyone to Pay no attention to “doom prophets” obviously referring to Greta.

Greta, who was in the audience to hear the moron rant, later addressed the audience to point out that the world was on fire, literally.

When the sea level rises and encroaches on US air bases on the coast, the orange one will pay attention. Presumably the naval bases can handle sea level changes...

 

[Pezpunk]

Ah, my work internet seems to blackhole one of the ad sources, and it causes the page to take forever to load. I'll try refraining from replying in this fast moving thread, so as to not appear out of date.

nah, most days very few us can keep up! post away.

 

[Tslynk67]

Futures have improved to -0.30%

 

[Unpilot]

+16

 

[FrankSG]

Another interesting tidbit is at 39:00:

Elon: "We've also managed to get a lot more output from existing equipment in in the US as well, so the Model 3 body line in in Fremont for example was only ever meant to do five thousand cars, Model 3's a week and it's doing seven thousand."​

This confirms that the other 5k/week capacity basically went to China. 7k/week was the Q4 production output.

Also:

Elon: "the Model 3 body line in Shanghai is much much simpler than the one in [Fremont] - and I said that a good way - then because it has the same end result."

Elon: "there's a lot of unnecessary movement in the Fremont's body line but not in Shanghai"​

Hm, GF3 body line possibly being capable of 5k-7k/week?

I'd be interested to hear @EVNow 's take on this, because I believe he is one of a few people who believe Fremont will likely max out at 10k/week total.

Seems to very low volume in pre-market.....or am I wrong?

Highest pre-market $ volume stock at the moment. $266M vs Bank of America at number 2 with $101M, and BABA at 3 with $99.8M.

 

[Chickenlittle]

It used to be that options expired on Saturday and you could exercise on that date, but I don't think that is true anymore since the actual expiration date was changed to Friday. See the link in https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4396794/

American options, unlike European options can be exercised at anytime prior to expiration. Brokers may discourage you but it’s your right to do so

 

[Pezpunk]

One of these days, maybe today, it’s going to be “every man for himself” in Shortsville.

you're naive if you don't think it already is. they will continue to post publicly about how Tesla will surely go bankrupt next week, even while closing out their positions. remember, their goal above all else is to get out leaving others holding the bag, even if it's their TSLAQ cohorts.

 

[Chickenlittle]

And Nasdaq early trading just started, with ~1K shares traded at $508.10, so close to the Frankfurt price levels.

Now at $507, and note how Frankfurt immediately correlated with that price level, with the current EUR/USD rate of 1.11:

View attachment 502746​

This documents another instance of what I noted yesterday: the Frankfurt prices closely correlate with Nasdaq prices, with Nasdaq leading the price obviously. When Frankfurt is trading and Nasdaq is closed (not even any AH or PM trading) then Frankfurt usually predicts the TSLA price moves, and usually doesn't exaggerate it. Here today's price came down from yesterday's $515 to today's $510, then Nasdaq set the real pre-market starting price at around $507 which Frankfurt followed. Frankfurt predicted about $5 of the $8 price move.

All other things equal and macros mostly flat I'd expect TSLA to start creeping up in early-market trading, there were a lot of good news to digest over the long weekend.

Of course they correlate with German market otherwise an arbitrage situation would exist that people/computers would take advantage of

 

[Aeon]

So, MLK day in Europe and then quite the pre-market drop....
Mmh.
Smells like

 

[DragonWatch]

The Futures is TSLA

 

[Unpilot]

Heaven = watching the Third Row Podcast and the pre-market Stock price!

 

[Chickenlittle]

Apparently, the frivolous NHTSA petitioner could be sued for violating existing laws:
M87 on Twitter
- which is a response to a Tesla anti-investor's response to this tweet:
Jarrod Sinclair on Twitter

Why would a non owner be allowed to petition?

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Seems like it won't be until March at the earliest unfortunately. I think he said "in a few months hopefully".

My pet theory:
They are trying to buy something big/sign some big deal, and they are waiting until its inked before they reveal what they are up to at battery investor day. Ongoing R&D progress would not be causing them to keep putting this back. They can report and update at any time. It feels like they don't want to show their hand on something until they know they cant miss-out.
Knowing tesla its not something they are patenting, it wont be a new tech thing, they wouldn't be coy about either. They have bought a mine, or a mining company, or something similar.

 

[Opus BC fan]

you're naive if you don't think it already is. they will continue to post publicly about how Tesla will surely go bankrupt next week, even while closing out their positions. remember, their goal above all else is to get out leaving others holding the bag, even if it's their TSLAQ cohorts.

There is no honor among thieves.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Just had a salesman in the office for our packaging needs. I am switching to his company for more and more of our packages because they use FSC cardboard, but also because their salesmen drive electric. This guy came over in a BMW i3, and was complaining that the range is only 150 km in winter and he constantly has to stop at Fastned chargers (charging too slow, so he has to wait a long time). I've decided to send an e-mail to his boss to get him in a Model 3 as soon as possible, so he can use his valuable time visiting customers instead of wasting it away at a slow charger. I will promiss his boss more of my business if he gets him in a decent electric car, that is in a Tesla.

 

[larmor]

Cramer on CNBC just reiterated it’s not just about EV’s Tesla cars are just fun to drive – – – there’s that emotional pull that everyone said Tesla and EV in general didn’t have.