Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

Nekkei up 600 points. Shanghai up about 1%

US surgeon general: Americans should be more concerned about the flu than coronavirus

 

[LeonHe]

WTH this Grace Tao Lin(Tesla China VP for External Affairs) was hinting GF3 might stay closed until Q2 or Q3 yesterday
Tesla China pushes back MIC Model 3 deliveries amid coronavirus outbreak

And today it will open again on Feb 10 as Zach said in the call?

Do opinions on this really need to change that often?

No, stop making FUD. Grace was simply replying to a customer (full of vitality J) on Weibo . The customer, whose estimated delivery was in Q2, asks if his delivery will be postponed to Q3 because of the nCoV. Grace replies that early Feb deliveries will probably be temporarily postponed due to nCoV, they will certainly catch up these postponed deliveries once the nCoV situation is better, and they are making various plans.

 

[M3Rider]

Your statement is very irresponsible and completely inaccurate. The link you provided does not hint that GF3 might stay closed until Q2 or Q3. You just made that up out of thin air.

I'm quoting what the article said. Specifically the part

who noted on Weibo that MIC Model 3 deliveries will likely be pushed back, perhaps as far back as the third quarter of 2020.

You still insist I made that up?

My post also said that as of today the plan is to restart on Feb 10.

Honestly, that tweet is confusing. Maybe something was lost in translation.

Including by Teslarati.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Patience, fortitude, and an omnivorous appetite for knowledge together with a synthesist’s mind comprise what ‘superpower’ I may have.

Indeed, NOBODY expected the Spanish Texas acquisition! Amongst our weaponry are such diverse elements as: fear, surprise, ruthless efficiency, an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope Musk, and nice red uniforms.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I told my wife today, at least we were Tesla millionaire for like half a day. I told her I would try to make it last little longer next time. Maybe we can be Tesla millionaire for two days next time. At least I got the screenshot saved on my phone.

But seriously, my wife and I know it's only matter of time before we pass that mark again. And once we pass it next time, we intend to keep going because we're in Tesla for the long haul.

But seriously, just watch the Upper Bollinger Band. This is as hard to predict as the Tides.

 

[LeonHe]

I'm quoting what the article said. Specifically the part

You still insist I made that up?

My post also said that as of today the plan is to restart on Feb 10.

Honestly, that tweet is confusing. Maybe something was lost in translation.

Including by Teslarati.

Yes, you are lying. Grace never said Q2 deliveries pushed to Q3.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Congrats - don't do anything rash before you retire!

Oh, if it's the utility I think it is, the one that starts with "P", has a "G" somewhere in the middle, and ends with "E" then I can assure you it's not only despised by their customer base. I despise them and I've never even been a customer!

If so, my area sent them their new CEO.

 

[ggr]

A question please...
I buy a share for 100 dollars.
A year later I buy another for 50 dollars.
The next day I sell half (one) for 200 dollars.

Gain is 100 or 150 dollars?
Did I hold investment for more than one year (for capital gains tax purposes)?

I know the answer in the US. But despite being Australian, I'm not sure. Once upon a time Oz didn't distinguish between short- and long-term capital gains, but what is your cost basis? Dunno.

 

[StealthP3D]

You still insist I made that up?

Yes, you made it up. Nowhere does it say or even hint that GF3 might be closed until Q2 or Q3.

You just made it up.

 

[kengchang]

I'm quoting what the article said. Specifically the part

You still insist I made that up?

My post also said that as of today the plan is to restart on Feb 10.

Honestly, that tweet is confusing. Maybe something was lost in translation.

Including by Teslarati.

This is the original Weibo post

Q: Is the coronavirus going to affect the delivery schedule? I was estimated to pick up in Q2, not sure if it will be pushed to Q3.

A: So far it looks early February will be delayed. We will make sure to catch up once the coronavirus situation gets better. Developing plans.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This ^^^^. I bought them, I'll hold them. Of course, it helps that my most expensive shares are $299.

$284.70 here, Brother. Long and strong. 2027+ for me.

P.S. That's the year, NOT the tgt SP.

 

[ggr]

people knew it was a squeeze because the high short interest in VW combined with a “buyout rumor.” It was a two day ever.

The current situation with Tesla is like 2013, a slow burn taking the company into a new valuation Freon $30 to $180. The current burn has been propelled via profits since October. Short squeezes generally don’t last for months like the current situation. Just pay attention to Tesla’s valuation, most analysts have us at $600-800 with ridiculously brain dead bearish analysts giving us $350.

It wasn't a rumor. Porsche announced that they had more calls than the market float and they were going to exercise them.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

The Jeff Bezos Regret Minimization Framework - A Wealth of Common Sense

Regret can also be highly motivating. Before he decided to start Amazon.com, Jeff Bezos had a secure and well-paid position at the investment company D. E. Shaw & Co. in New York. Starting an online bookstore in Seattle was going to be a big leap — something that his boss (that’s D. E. Shaw) advised him to think about carefully. Says Bezos:

“The framework I found, which made the decision incredibly easy, was what I called — which only a nerd would call — a “regret minimization framework.” So I wanted to project myself forward to age 80 and say, “Okay, now I’m looking back on my life. I want to have minimized the number of regrets I have.” I knew that when I was 80 I was not going to regret having tried this. I was not going to regret trying to participate in this thing called the Internet that I thought was going to be a really big deal. I knew that if I failed I wouldn’t regret that, but I knew the one thing I might regret is not ever having tried. I knew that that would haunt me every day, and so, when I thought about it that way it was an incredibly easy decision.”

When I'm 80 years old, I will look back and say that no, I didn't regret investing in a company which was trying to save our species from climate change. This is regardless of whether I somehow become rich or not from this investment.

By the time I am 80 years old, according to the various formulas climate change scientists are throwing around, I will be able to see for myself if our species is doomed or not. This may or may not be an admission of my current age.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes, you are lying. Grace never said Q2 deliveries pushed to Q3.

Not only that. His original claim was that she "hinted" that the factory would be shut until Q2 or Q3.

Which of course she did not say anything like that.

 

[Cosmacelf]

A question please...
I buy a share for 100 dollars.
A year later I buy another for 50 dollars.
The next day I sell half (one) for 200 dollars.

Gain is 100 or 150 dollars?
Did I hold investment for more than one year (for capital gains tax purposes)?

Depends on Australian laws. In the US, you can explicitly say that you are selling the first share you bought, and thus $100 long term capital gains. Or you can say you are selling the share you just bought, so $150 short term capital gains, your choice.

 

[Phobi]

Steve, I drive a Tesla and openly advocate renewable energy and sustainable transportation. At work some would describe me as a heretic while others support me. Just as Tesla is a partisan subject in the general public so it is amongst utility employees, supervision, and management. I draw a great deal of attention to myself, because I speak out. I suppose that’s on me.

My view is that many utility employees consider solar power a minor annoyance and perceive little threat. I often hear stories of how expensive solar is and how solar companies are cheating customers; how solar leases are impractical and make homes unmarketable. Today, a supervisor explained to me in detail how EVs were powered from coal fired generation and far worse for the environment than internal combustion engines. It is difficult, if not impossible for me to hide my disdain. My hope is that I can someday better advocate renewable energy without angering those with different viewpoints.

In a nutshell, utilities are monopolies embedded into the Earth, literally and figuratively. Their culture of entitlement, nepotism, and cronyism has been entrenched for decades. All of their strengths are the weaknesses that will empower their disruption.

This post speaks to me a great deal. I currently work on the assembly line for one of the big three in Ontario, Canada and as the lone Tesla driver in the entire plant (99% sure lol). From the inside looking out, people don't see what's coming. Like you mentioned with solar, people I talk to day to day just see EV's as an annoyance and brush them off as stereotypical "neutered" green-mobiles. The writing really is on the wall for legacy OEM's because everything Sandy Munro has referenced with regards to OEM's retrofitting to EV's and the capital cost's involved is real. I thank the heavens (and Elon ) I got my initial purchase of shares in April of Last year after taking a test drive in a relative's Model 3. Been WOKE ever since (P3D- purchased in August) three more tranches this year and i am holding long and strong.

Also this was released Tuesday, but I refer everyone to this clip from Joe Rogan's podcast with Lex Fridman and his learnings from Elon, if Cathie Wood's words don't soothe the selling itch, take a listen and enjoy WHO we're getting behind.

P.S I think Lex is referring to institutional investors

 

[Artful Dodger]

Who are the biggest bears birds on TMC?

FTFY

 

[Cosmacelf]

I'd love it if Tesla bought Rivian. Their design is awesome, if only it had tesla plugs and could use superchargers.

Won't happen. Ford is a big shareholder, and no doubt has a veto on such a sale. Besides, there is nothing of value in Rivian for Tesla.

BTW, has anyone seen any evidence of manufacturing activity at Rivian? Shouldn't they be installing equipment into their factory? Buying dies? Something?

 

[Carl Raymond]

I know the answer in the US. But despite being Australian, I'm not sure. Once upon a time Oz didn't distinguish between short- and long-term capital gains, but what is your cost basis? Dunno.

Oz Law seems remarkably similar to US law on this, so I was happy to hear either US or Australian response. Responses have been useful. Until now I thought all my TSLA shares were equal. Now I realise I must have batches of shares, each batch with a purchase time stamp and a price per share.

At some point I may learn how to selectively sell shares from the earliest or latest batch. I haven’t come across that option yet in IG.com’s interface.

Australian govt site:
Investing and tax - Moneysmart.gov.au

If you sell an investment for more than the cost to acquire it, you make a capital gain. You need to include all capital gains in your tax return in the year you sell the investment. Capital gains are taxed at your marginal rate.

If you've held the investment for more than 12 months, you're only taxed on half of the capital gain. The is known as the capital gains tax (CGT) discount.

 

[SMAlset]

CNBC - hour ago:

Regarding 2019Q4, at the end of the segment Dan said that all of their net income came from tax credits. That’s not what I recall - in fact the subsidies were described by Tesla as very small. Cathie didn’t dispute Dan’s comment but did say that ARK didn’t even factor in EV subsidies in to their work.

Am I not understanding what was said or misreading the Q4 report?