Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chocochip]

In the hopes we can wrap up this whole Taycan discussion, here's a post I can fully get behind as it expresses how I've been looking at this situation:

You know I bet there were people who asked about early adopters of Tesla's and that was prior to super chargers and a reliable power train. Roadster was not exactly cheap.

Think of the Taycan as a mix between the first Roadster and the early versions (2012-2013) of the Model S:

Is it sometimes tricky to drive it long distances because of insufficient and unreliable or slow charging availability? Yes.

Does it enter a somewhat rarified market (not much competition for its specific class)? Yes.

Is it the best value for money? Hardly!

Is it a good driver's car? Definitely!

The people buying the Taycan these days are the early adopters and/or people who won't use it as their only car. Sometimes as their main car (but with a backup), sometimes as the weekend fun drive thing. But remember, it's not for everybody, so let's not treat it as if it were. It doesn't tick all the boxes, it doesn't even tick most of them. Teslas, any of them, are clearly the superior EV in terms of range, charging convenience, space... just practicality. Taycan probably wins the luxury feel category, and -- according to people who have driven it -- it might win marginally on the driving feel category.

The Taycan is a Porsche. By that, I mean it fits the Porsche image. In that respect, Porsche can be proud of their accomplishments. The Taycan HAD TO have great driving performance, and a luxurious feel. Efficiency would have always had to come second.

So, the way I look at it is, more EVs in the market are good for Tesla. I really don't want a world where the ONLY EVs are Teslas. Because that would mean that people choose to buy Teslas rather than choosing to buy EVs. It would be: either a Tesla or an ICEV. No! Let the people have choices, and let Tesla vehicles be the best overall choice out of all EVs. I want to be able to say "Tesla is the best EV, and the best car overall", but for that we need something to compare them against. So, I don't want the Taycan project to die, I want it to improve and to thrive. Or at most, let it be "killed" by the Roadster 2. Again, efficiency numbers mean almost nothing to the target audience, it's really all about performance and feel.

 

[Fact Checking]

Jason Yang's report contains a few details about the effects of the coronavirus on GF3 production and containment/safety measures:

"The assembly work of the Gigafactory model 3 has been operating normally. New cars are constantly being loaded on transport trucks. Delivery of scheduled users should not be affected by the covid-19."

"Construction workers in the second phase of the project must return to Shanghai for quarantine for two weeks to ensure that they are not infected and sick."​

If I'm reading that right any migrant workers who left Shanghai for the Lunar New Year must add a two weeks delay from their return, to the first day they are allowed to start working.

The "second phase" either denotes the "Battery Workshop" or the Model Y expansion - I've seen conflicting reports about the nomenclature there.

A couple of observations from the video:

These are the General Assembly loading docks, and they are almost fully utilized, with a higher utilization I've ever seen in any of the drone videos, which is very encouraging and suggests an increase over production rate from the December peak that was observed.

6 new MIC Model 3's leaving on a trailer. The parking lot had another ~30 cars, which suggests that the delivery pipeline is humming well, all cars made by the factory are loaded and shipped out relatively quickly.

(It might also suggest a lower production rate, but that is contradicted by the utilization of the GA loading bays: there's relatively little space for extra storage at the GA lines, so high dock utilization suggests high production rate.)

Container trailers stored in Tesla's new, enlarged north side parking lot. It's unclear to me what this signals, does Tesla now own these trailers? Seems unlikely, considering the mixed badging. Is Tesla storing these trailers like in a trailer yard and driving them to suppliers on an as-needed basis, to reduce dependency on trailer availability at those suppliers? Can anyone who knows logistics better give an explanation for the increased trailer storage at GF3?

Edit: the second image with the four orange tractors suggests that the orange trucks might be Tesla owned, the containers/trailers are specific the shipping company or supplier that they are shipping from, and Tesla drivers might be pulling all those trailers. This would be a sensible setup in that those drivers would have good experience working with the various suppliers and loading into the factory loading docks efficiently. It would also reduce costs, and the drivers would be directly employed and the trucks and trailers company owned.

New cars being prepared for the QA run on their test-track. Highest level of activity (most cars) I've seen on this particular site within the factory, which suggests an ongoing ramp-up.

The new Supercharger site close to the end of the GA line (where cars are completed), being charged. Here too high level of activity.

Construction workers installing new HVAC equipment at the roof of the Battery Workshop. This suggests that GF3 construction work has resumed last week as well.

New tent on the northern parking lots, apparently used to unload trailers. Might be supporting ongoing construction work, to unload covered trailers with interior equipment not weather-proof, on buildings that don't have working loading bays yet, such as the Battery Workshop. Or it might be a temporary unpacking area for a particularly troublesome parts supply source that would take up too much space within the factory.

​

This is a shot of the north side 45-degree angled saw-tooth pattern loading docks of the Body In White body shop lines: appear to be about 20% occupied, which is higher than normal levels as well. I presume these bays are loading relatively densely packed metal parts, which don't need nearly as much truck and loading bay traffic as the assembly line loading bays where hundreds of different suppliers provide often lightweight and low density parts.

Most of the material for the BIW lines comes from the stamping presses, which I believe are loading rolls of sheets of metal.

 

[Prunesquallor]

If the intent is to build out a factory in record time, such as what transpired in Shanghai for GF3, every week counts. If the bureaucracy in Germany is at this state so early in the project, it does not bode well for the overall project schedule of G4. The World, and Germany, needs to advance to green technology now. Each lost week is critical. Looks like GF5 is spoken for. Unless other Countries want GF6 through GF10 built out in China, they better bring their A game.

EDIT. This land plot at G4 is not a forest. It is a tree farm. Having lived in Vancouver, Canada for many years the difference is clear.

Agree. Hosting and accelerating construction of a Tesla Giga should be viewed as proof of a nation's credentials in the battle against climate change. If the bureaucracy allows delay after delay it should be viewed as complicit in big oil/big auto's crimes.

 

[SO16]

In the hopes we can wrap up this whole Taycan discussion, here's a post I can fully get behind as it expresses how I've been looking at this situation:



Think of the Taycan as a mix between the first Roadster and the early versions (2012-2013) of the Model S:

Is it sometimes tricky to drive it long distances because of insufficient and unreliable or slow charging availability? Yes.

Does it enter a somewhat rarified market (not much competition for its specific class)? Yes.

Is it the best value for money? Hardly!

Is it a good driver's car? Definitely!

The people buying the Taycan these days are the early adopters and/or people who won't use it as their only car. Sometimes as their main car (but with a backup), sometimes as the weekend fun drive thing. But remember, it's not for everybody, so let's not treat it as if it were. It doesn't tick all the boxes, it doesn't even tick most of them. Teslas, any of them, are clearly the superior EV in terms of range, charging convenience, space... just practicality. Taycan probably wins the luxury feel category, and -- according to people who have driven it -- it might win marginally on the driving feel category.

The Taycan is a Porsche. By that, I mean it fits the Porsche image. In that respect, Porsche can be proud of their accomplishments. The Taycan HAD TO have great driving performance, and a luxurious feel. Efficiency would have always had to come second.

So, the way I look at it is, more EVs in the market are good for Tesla. I really don't want a world where the ONLY EVs are Teslas. Because that would mean that people choose to buy Teslas rather than choosing to buy EVs. It would be: either a Tesla or an ICEV. No! Let the people have choices, and let Tesla vehicles be the best overall choice out of all EVs. I want to be able to say "Tesla is the best EV, and the best car overall", but for that we need something to compare them against. So, I don't want the Taycan project to die, I want it to improve and to thrive. Or at most, let it be "killed" by the Roadster 2. Again, efficiency numbers mean almost nothing to the target audience, it's really all about performance and feel.

It’s just unfortunate when people like Bill Gates buy a Taycan and then mention how bad range anxiety is, how slow to charge, how difficult for long distance travel, how expensive EVs are for what you get and how amazing gasoline is for energy density. Had he instead purchased a Model 3 or Model S long range with Tesla’s super charger network, he may be less likely to stress those points as much. By bill saying what he did, I bet he turned off many future EV buyers.

I can see why MKBHD didn’t, but too bad he couldn’t have said a Tesla practically removes those concerns. The TM3 is an average priced car too. (Albeit quickly can get a bit pricey.)

 

[jerry33]

I'm not sure how the market works in the US, it seems your utilities do transmission, generation and retail....

That is how it is in Texas (TGR), but I believe the rest of the country has a different structure. Batteries belong with transmission, but the legislators have lumped them in with generation to protect the peaker plants. If they did it the right way, peaker plants would be gone very shortly.

 

[mblakele]

Looks like GF4 could see a decision on Tuesday afternoon at the earliest, local time. More likely by end of week, I’d guess.

https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1228988383931904002

 

[jerry33]

There are a number of independent road tests that show the actual range of the Taycan to be better than the EPA numbers. Much better in fact than Tesla's as a percentage of actual compared to EPA estimates.

I can also get much better than EPA range in my Model S. Different tests will result in different findings. It still doesn't make the additional cost worth it. And then there's the reliability of the transmission, and the slow speed efficiency issue. There will be some that purchase the Taycan, but most will purchase a Tesla.

 

[jerry33]

Pure speculation. I think Tesla will eventually spin off the "energy" related divisions, including solar and energy storage, into a separate company ...

You're kidding. If they do that, it will be vulnerable to Chanos and his ilk just like it was when it was Solar City. Remember that Chanos' main reason for hating Tesla and Elon is that they prevented him from bankrupting Solar City.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

its true that the taycan may be comparable (in some ways) to early adopters of the very first model S. however...

when the very first model S cars were being bought by Tesla early-adopters, there was no other choice. if you wanted an EV with performance, then your only choice was the Tesla,. despite no charging network, and relatively poor range.
THATS NOT TRUE NOW.
If porsche launched the taycan in 20212, then yay, it would be an automatic buy, but IMHO porsche owners are having to try VERY hard to ignore the existing tesla range, supercharger network and other features that they can get *right now* for a *lot less* than the cost of their Porsche.

If it was me, I'd be selling the porsche taycan way cheaper, even sell the first few at a major loss until they can crunch down on costs. They simply cannot justify the price of that car, for some 'nicer interior styling'.

 

[ammulder]

The Taycan is a Porsche. By that, I mean it fits the Porsche image. In that respect, Porsche can be proud of their accomplishments. The Taycan HAD TO have great driving performance, and a luxurious feel. Efficiency would have always had to come second.

Yeah, it sounds like a mistake to buy the Taycan for road trips. Even if it gets the stated EPA range, driving for long stretches on a straight road at the same speed does not seem to play to its advantages. (Never mind the cargo space or charging network.)

On the other hand, I assume most buyers are buying it for reasons other than road trips, in which case it may suit their wishes perfectly.

I can't say I've seen a lot of Porsche cars (vs. SUVs) on long highway drives (though there are plenty "around town"), so I'm not sure this is different from the non-EV Porsche world.

 

[jerry33]

You’ll rarely find me defending the Taycan, but in all fairness, I’ve played the “musical stalls” game at superchargers plenty of times.

And I've done it twice in over 60K miles of road tripping. Anecdotes are not data.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Last night my kids and I watched Solo, A Star Wars Story < about Hans Solo before he met Luke Skywalker. Directed by Ron Howard, this is my favourite Star Wars movie apart from the original Star Wars IV A New Hope. It is on Netflix.

Shortly into the movie it occurred to me that our M3 now has Netflix after recently downloading the latest OTA update. I wonder....yes, after a five minute temperature warm-up, we left the comforts from our family room and watched the remainder of the movie in the Tesla, parked in our closed door garage with -10 degrees temperature outside the car. Loved the venue. I'm still processing what transpired. How is this even possible? Consider:

Most of the new houses that are being built in my neighbourhood have basement theatre rooms. My neighbours are spending more money on their theatre room than the cost of my M3. Ironic that the seats, surround premium sound, and even screen (when viewed in close proximity) is better in our M3 than what any neighbour theatre room could offer.

A few weeks back a very good friend showed me his latest prize possession in his garage. When he opened his garage door, I thought it would be a Tesla, but alas, a Mercedes AMG V8. He did say it would be his last ICE, he knows what is coming. The interior fit and finish and materials was a far cry better than my M3 no doubt. He was eager for me to press the START button which resulted in a rumble somewhere between a Harley Davidson and...another Harley Davidson. Performance exhaust. Then after about five seconds he quickly motioned me to turn the car off. He had backed his car into the garage and the fumes were slowing killing us, literally.

Now it all happened so fast, I'm trying to remember that if I pressed the START button to turn ON the car, did I also press the START button to turn OFF the car? Good thing I don't have to worry about that again.

 

[Fact Checking]

Jason Yang's report contains a few details about the effects of the coronavirus on GF3 production and containment/safety measures:

"The assembly work of the Gigafactory model 3 has been operating normally. New cars are constantly being loaded on transport trucks. Delivery of scheduled users should not be affected by the covid-19."

"Construction workers in the second phase of the project must return to Shanghai for quarantine for two weeks to ensure that they are not infected and sick."​

If I'm reading that right any migrant workers who left Shanghai for the Lunar New Year must add a two weeks delay from their return, to the first day they are allowed to start working.

The "second phase" either denotes the "Battery Workshop" or the Model Y expansion - I've seen conflicting reports about the nomenclature there.

A couple of observations from the video:

View attachment 511736​

These are the General Assembly loading docks, and they are almost fully utilized, with a higher utilization I've ever seen in any of the drone videos, which is very encouraging and suggests an increase over production rate from the December peak that was observed.

View attachment 511737View attachment 511738​

6 new MIC Model 3's leaving on a trailer. The parking lot had another ~30 cars, which suggests that the delivery pipeline is humming well, all cars made by the factory are loaded and shipped out relatively quickly.

(It might also suggest a lower production rate, but that is contradicted by the utilization of the GA loading bays: there's relatively little space for extra storage at the GA lines, so high dock utilization suggests high production rate.)

View attachment 511739View attachment 511746​

Container trailers stored in Tesla's new, enlarged north side parking lot. It's unclear to me what this signals, does Tesla now own these trailers? Seems unlikely, considering the mixed badging. Is Tesla storing these trailers like in a trailer yard and driving them to suppliers on an as-needed basis, to reduce dependency on trailer availability at those suppliers? Can anyone who knows logistics better give an explanation for the increased trailer storage at GF3?

Edit: the second image with the four orange tractors suggests that the orange trucks might be Tesla owned, the containers/trailers are specific the shipping company or supplier that they are shipping from, and Tesla drivers might be pulling all those trailers. This would be a sensible setup in that those drivers would have good experience working with the various suppliers and loading into the factory loading docks efficiently. It would also reduce costs, and the drivers would be directly employed and the trucks and trailers company owned.

View attachment 511740​

New cars being prepared for the QA run on their test-track. Highest level of activity (most cars) I've seen on this particular site within the factory, which suggests an ongoing ramp-up.

View attachment 511744​

The new Supercharger site close to the end of the GA line (where cars are completed), being charged. Here too high level of activity.

View attachment 511747​

Construction workers installing new HVAC equipment at the roof of the Battery Workshop. This suggests that GF3 construction work has resumed last week as well.

View attachment 511748​

New tent on the northern parking lots, apparently used to unload trailers. Might be supporting ongoing construction work, to unload covered trailers with interior equipment not weather-proof, on buildings that don't have working loading bays yet, such as the Battery Workshop. Or it might be a temporary unpacking area for a particularly troublesome parts supply source that would take up too much space within the factory.

View attachment 511754
​

This is a shot of the north side 45-degree angled saw-tooth pattern loading docks of the Body In White body shop lines: appear to be about 20% occupied, which is higher than normal levels as well. I presume these bays are loading relatively densely packed metal parts, which don't need nearly as much truck and loading bay traffic as the assembly line loading bays where hundreds of different suppliers provide often lightweight and low density parts.

Most of the material for the BIW lines comes from the stamping presses, which I believe are loading rolls of sheets of metal.

Ran out of the 10 attachments limit, here's more observations from yesterday's GF3 video:

This big parking lot is right across the road to the general assembly line, and might in fact be the parking lot Tesla workers normally use. There's very few employee parking slots on the GF3 site itself - and those might be for management only.

If so then this parking lot is well packed, suggesting that the GF3 workforce is mostly present.

This is the original Supercharger right at the exit point of the GA where new cars exit the factory. This was clearly too small and was extended with the other Supercharging location with ~4 times as many stalls. Both locations are well utilized.

While cells come fully charged from the cell factory, the use of Superchargers suggests that they are still mostly using GF1 battery packs: the ~30 days shipping time from Nevada to Shanghai probably creates about ~20-30% vampire drain on the battery pack that must be recharged before delivery.

Once the LG Chem battery packs become dominant in new cars we should start seeing lower utilization of these Supercharger stalls.

"Phase II" construction work is ongoing: the webbed pattern of deep foundations is visible - this might either be for a new hydraulic stamp for the Model Y, or might be a foundry similar to the one in Lathrop casting the new, lighter, less expensive Model Y underbody.

Based on the Q4 Model Y disclosures by Tesla my guess is now that this is a new high-tech foundry, located close to the BIW lines which will be able to make both Model 3's and Model Y's. The stamp shop might already have the required 300,000/year capacity to serve both Model 3 and Model Y stamping needs.

The steel beams being arranged at the site suggests that the new building's steel frame construction is about to begin - the concrete foundations have likely already set sufficiently to bear the construction related loads, and will fully set by the time heavy equipment is installed.

Edit, LOL, I should have watched the video to the end:

Construction of the steel frame of the new building has just begun.

Battery Workshop loading bays are still inaccessible, so there's no volume production of local battery packs yet, but I suspect they are already in trial production since December, as suggested in their Q4 update.

This is a particularly sharp shot of the General Assembly loading dock numbering system, they are labeled "GA Dock" and numbered from 01 to 97.

The stamping shop's loading docks are labeled "ST Dock" and go from 01-09.

TL;DW, TL;DR: GF3 production seems to have ramped up in the first week of February production, both new car supply and shipments to delivery centers seems to be progressing at a brisk space. Construction work on Phase II is ongoing. No new construction sites. There's no externally visible bottleneck in GF3 production.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Agree. Hosting and accelerating construction of a Tesla Giga should be viewed as proof of a nation's credentials in the battle against climate change. If the bureaucracy allows delay after delay it should be viewed as complicit in big oil/big auto's crimes.

That's not necessarily true. If Texas (I know you said nation, but states are more appropriate here since states have different views/law/regulations concerning the environment) gets a gigafactory, and it gets built in a day, that will be all about the perceived economic impact, and nothing about the environment. Otherwise, the inverse would be true - how quickly a host tears down an oil well would be an indication of a state's credentials on the environment. And that isn't going to happen any time soon in Texas.

I'm OK with delays in Germany for genuine concerns. These protections were put in place to protect the environment, the ecosystem, and people. They should be followed and respected no matter the purpose of the factory being built. Now, the political abuse of the laws and regulations is another story.

 

[Unpilot]

I'm not going to wade into the Taycan debate too deep except to say......Fool me once Diesel gate
It seems to me If a company lies to the extent that VW group did .......that ANY further testing/validation of performance/energy usage would AT A MINIMUM be held to a very high standard. To see that it appears they are AGAIN not being honest and TRYING AGAIN to....hmmm...massage the numbers....well you won't fool me twice.

 

[Chocochip]

Ran out of the 10 attachments limit

First, thank you for letting everyone else know that such a limit on the number of attachments per post exists. Second, I have to wonder if you are one of the main reasons the limit exists...

 

[ZeApelido]

Yes, I do find it interesting that we hate when people or so called short sellers bash Tesla but we are Ok to bash Porsche EV’s or any other EV that is not Tesla. I am the biggest Tesla/TSLA fan there is, but I also like actual driving and Track driving and own 3 Tesla’s and 3 Porsche’s and they are all excellent vehicles for what they are meant to do. Remember, when I bought my P90D (not even the P100D which was more when it was launched) or should I say, donated my money to Tesla back in mid 2016, that car was almost $150k. Now we are disparaging Porsche’s that are this much and more? Remember, just like Tesla, there will be economies of scale and pricing should come down. But what is different is that the Taycan definitely handles and has a much better interior look than the Tesla at this price range. Each car has its plus and minuses but please don’t knock it till you have driven it. Yes, I know, wait for the Plaid....and my money is waiting...it just is not here yet. Thanks.

I have always listed the pros of the Taycan vs Tesla ad nauseum and will do it again:












Done.

 

[ZsoZso]

Marques Brownlee on Twitter

MKHBD did an interview with Bill Gates. Gates bought a Porsche Taycan and now lecturing about EV's and range anxiety...

Dumb move. If he was a smart person, he could have bought faster and better EVs with 4X that range for the same money! How ? Of course, buying 2 Tesla Model S at nearly 400 miles range each

BTW, this morning Google recommended me this article:
Buy a Brand-New Car Online in California at a Great Price - Ageful
Looks like Tesla-effect hitting the traditional OEMs?
And CNBC anchors still wondering why TSLA valued so high...
Maybe because they keep selling every car they make at 60+% yearly growth rate ?

 

[Off Shore]

In the hopes we can wrap up this whole Taycan discussion...

Rated your post "Funny" solely for this phrase.

 

[GBleck]

Nice nice