Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EinSV]

You'd have to know the size of the order book for Model Y in N. America. It's very possible that Giga Berlin is producing Model Ys before N. America has satisfied the backorder demand.

The 2nd issue is spare Model 3 capacity. With Europe having only the ability to purchase Model 3s for the next 1 year+ its a highly effective backstop to maintain demand for Fremont Model 3s if N.American demand shifts strongly toward Model Y during the period of backorder production.

Cheers!

Yes, those are both possibilities. Other possibilities include (1) Model Y ramp is slower than expected (unlikely IMO); (2) Tesla is battery constrained so doesn't mind starting Model Y SR+ early to free up batteries for GF Shanghai Model 3, Semi, Megapack, etc. or (3) GF Berlin Model Y production starts ahead of schedule.

Even with all those possibilities, I still think the most likely scenario is Tesla ships some Model Ys to Europe in advance of GF Berlin production.

Either way, one thing this discussion drives home is how far Model Y demand outstrip supply this year as Tesla ramps up production at Fremont -- a great problem to have in the midst of all the coronavirus inspired turmoil.

 

[carterm2]

Powerwalls are getting very popular and now have longer lead times. Since PGE decided to run "fire and wind risk blackouts" more customers are opting for power walls for their homes. (I would need 2 to avoid splitting off the main appliances.)

 

[sundaymorning]

Shorter who called the Corona Virus panic is now turning bullish:

Hedge-fund manager who called the coronavirus market meltdown says selloff is overdone, covers shorts

Wang’s short positions took a hit initially as the market seemed to shrug off the initial doom-and-gloom headlines. He might have been shaken from his short thesis had he not taken a holiday to China’s tropical island of Hainan, where what he saw convinced him to maintain his positions

“After Wuhan was closed you could feel the panic,” Wang told Bloomberg. “Normally for Chinese New Year there would be people everywhere queuing for restaurants and going to the beach, but this year there was no one — everything was empty.”


So he stuck with his bearish stance, and it paid off handsomely for investors to the tune of a 77% surge for his Singapore-based fund through the first two months of the year.

Now that most Shorters have made their booty,it’s time for them to buy, and here’s why:

Wang said he doesn’t expect this downturn to be as serious as the one that hobbled markets during the global financial crisis, so he’s now taking a more bullish position. At this point, he’s preparing for central banks around the world to ramp up liquidity and cut interest rates even further.

catching the falling knife, or getting too greedy with your short position? When will the bleeding stop?

By the looks of the futures market, Wang might have taken profits too early. On Sunday night, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures YM00, -4.804% was down more than 1,100 points, while both S&P 500 futures ES00, -4.895% and Nasdaq futures NQ00, -4.822% were

I guess the signal now is to wait for more easing from governments around the world.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Isn't that article several months old? I swear I saw it posted on this forum months ago...

Original article in the Financial Times today, was picked up by Reuters and MarketWatch.

 

[lklundin]

A tiny but actual data-point is that at the end of today's (!) trading session at the small, German market maker Lang & Schwarz, the bid - ask for TSLA was:
604.1 - 608.2 (€)
- with most recent trade (8 shares...) at 608.1€,

Tesla Inc. Aktie | Aktienkurs | Chart | A1CX3T | US88160R1014

At this time this small exchange trades TSLA at 568€, (ca. 648$), in about 10 minutes Frankfurt opens.

 

[MC3OZ]

Yes, those are both possibilities. Other possibilities include (1) Model Y ramp is slower than expected (unlikely IMO); (2) Tesla is battery constrained so doesn't mind starting Model Y SR+ early to free up batteries for GF Shanghai Model 3, Semi, Megapack, etc. or (3) GF Berlin Model Y production starts ahead of schedule.

Even with all those possibilities, I still think the most likely scenario is Tesla ships some Model Ys to Europe in advance of GF Berlin production.

Either way, one thing this discussion drives home is how far Model Y demand outstrip supply this year as Tesla ramps up production at Fremont -- a great problem to have in the midst of all the coronavirus inspired turmoil.

I quoted a post on Reddit a while ago where European customers where told their Model Ys are coming from GF Berlin.

We may find out more on battery investor day, but cells are a likely constraint, there there is the complexity of making the EU Model Y in Fremont, the delivery wave etc...

So my guess is EU Model Y comes from GF Berlin and that possibly only delays it around 6 months,, mid-late 2021 as opposed to early to mid-2021.

 

[JBRR]

Anyone else making an absolute killing lately, having figured out this virus thing 6 weeks ago?

 

[Mike Smith]

672 in Germany. Not bad at all. I don't think we're the only ones aware of the great progress at Giga Shanghai.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Frankfurt open now... equiv to:
$645.89 United States

Tesla Inc
FRA: TL0
565.00 EUR −47.20 (7.71%)
Mar. 9, 8:11 a.m. GMT+1 ·​

Reminder, on Friday the Lower-BB closed at $645.98 Traders are so transparent. This is definately not rocket science.

EDIT: $621.96 equiv @ 03:28 EST

542.70 EUR −69.50 (-11.35%)
Mar. 9, 8:28 a.m. GMT+1​

EDIT2: In the 500 USD's now ... $596.98

521.10 EUR −91.10 (14.88%)
Mar. 9, 8:49 a.m. GMT+1​

 

[StealthP3D]

672 in Germany. Not bad at all. I don't think we're the only ones aware of the great progress at Giga Shanghai.

Yeah, this stock is a bright spot in a depressing market. I don't know of any other company with as much good news coming down the pipeline and steady progress on the front lines. It's actually exciting to be invested in such a company.

I think the price has stayed as firm as it has because it's viewed by an increasing number of investors as a flight to safety and long-term value with which to ride out this rocky market. That's how I see it.

 

[Mich]

For how long is the future market halted? Until pre-Market opens in 40 min?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hast seen the White Whale?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

-14% during early trading in Germany.

 

[re04586]

For how long is the future market halted? Until pre-Market opens in 40 min?

Technically it's not halted, it can still trade, but only at prices higher than the lower limit - E.g. 2819 on the SP500.

 

[MC3OZ]

Hast seen the White Whale?

I'm just glad my wife hasn't seen this..

 

[Earlian]

Dax Down: -9,37% ! 08:40 am

It's almost impossible to trade anything.

 

[Fact Checking]

BTW., there's a fresh leak from China, apparently there was an "investor call" last week between unspecified investors and Tesla China representatives (?), the notes of which were leaked:

Kelvin Yang on Twitter

• GF3 investor call: GF3 has been doing single 6 days shift at 2k/week. In March it’s going to add a second shift and probably back to 5 days week, to reach 3.5k/week. That’s planned capacity.
• Stress test scheduled in June and new target for July onwards is 5k/week. 2020 production estimate 170k. 2021 250k.
• With 100% localized supply chain and production ramp, a China made Model 3 costs as low as ¥230k($33.2k)
• MiC Model Y had been planned for December delivery, but pushed to January due to COVID-19
• Long range Model 3 in development, volume production in H2 this year
• Tesla is willing to cut prices if production > orders and margin is stable

These are some pretty impressive ramp-up figures - and apparently the second shift is not yet up, they managed those February numbers with a single shift, 5-day work week and Saturday overtime, and reached a production volume of 2,000 units/week.

Note that the 2020 and 2021 production figures are MIC Model 3 only - Model Y comes on top of that.

Also note the currently planned initial production capacity of 180k/year - in the Q4 letter it's listed at a lower figure with 150k/year, with an unspecified "we'll increase existing production capacity". That unspecified figure is, apparently, 250k/year.

GF3 March production will have to be adjusted upwards again.

No doubt TSLA will be affected by the coronavirus panic, but I expect it to bounce the hardest of all stocks once the coronavirus recovery is underway.

 

[sundaymorning]

-14% during early trading in Germany.

Rough Waters ahead guys.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm just glad my wife hasn't seen this..

Lol, make sure she doesn't read Elon's twitter feed. That's where this picture is from.

Cheers!

 

[ev-enthusiast]

-14% during early trading in Germany.

Update: -16%
Update: Now back up to -11% during early pre market trading.