Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Matias]

Update: -16%

DAX

DAX Index (GDAXI) - Investing.com

Not double digits..

edit: thought you were speaking about DAX, but you're speaking about TSLA?

 

[Fact Checking]

Update: -16%
Update: Now back up to -11% during early pre market trading.

Nasdaq pre-market trading just opened, and TSLA bounced back from the Frankfurt-equivalent of ~$600 to now ~$625 - which is -11% drop from the regular trading close and a -9.4% drop from the Nasdaq after-market close.

The EUR-denominated drop was deeper, because EUR/USD strengthened to 1.1430 as expectations of another Federal Reserve interest rate cut are getting priced in.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I don't pretend to understand OPEC, WTI, Brent crude price wars etc; however I do understand this

I was on a Jet Blue flight from Newark NJ to Orlando Florida Saturday evening and I had no one next to me and the row in front and behind was empty(great to ward of COVID-19) ... this is unreal .. these flights are typically jam packed with snowbirds and parents with kids going to Disney etc ... I have not been on a flight this empty since post 9-11... so there is an impact ... not sure how long it will last ...

also i was thru security and sitting in the terminal A in about 5 minutes ....

Air Canada was attempting to combine flights to Toronto while i was sitting there ... just saying

I'm seeing similar things in London. Yesterday was the first day that could passably be called the start of spring and the parks were relatively empty. Normally they would be a sea of pasty white on a day like that.

Some people are definitely starting to stay out of the public areas.

 

[Artful Dodger]

SP bottomed out in Frankfurt at 521.00 Euro minutes before NYC opened, then recovered substantially to equiv. US $634.31 after 04:00 EDT

555.30 EUR −56.90 (-9.29%)
Mar. 9, 9:09 a.m. GMT+1​

NASDAQ Realtime quotes start in about an hour. Until then, Google Pre-market data.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Nasdaq pre-market trading just opened, and TSLA bounced back from the Frankfurt-equivalent of ~$600 to now ~$625 - which is -11% drop from the regular trading close and a -9.4% drop from the Nasdaq after-market close.
[...]

I could see the current SP dip during early trading in Europe as an exaggeration as Europe got news about Italy quarantining it economical heart (the northern part of the country) over the weekend.
Any news on the US reaction to the corona virus during the weekend?

 

[Fact Checking]

I could see the current SP dip during early trading in Europe as an exaggeration as Europe got news about Italy quarantining it economical heart (the northern part of the country) over the weekend.
Any news on the US reaction to the corona virus during the weekend?

Frankfurt is always a low liquidity market, most of the time it under-estimates TSLA price moves, now it overestimated it - on very low liquidity of a few thousand shares. I wouldn't be reading too much into the specific percentages when overall markets are panicking - the main Nasdaq session will set the TSLA price.

Now that Nasdaq pre-market trading has opened the European price will follow that more or less.

 

[Fact Checking]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

With a proper non-robot title:

"Tesla’s Fast-Track German Plant Charts a Path Through Red Tape" (Bloomberg)
​

There's nothing new in this GF4 article that wasn't discussed here already, but the usual Bloomberg anti-Tesla FUD is absent, it's a proper article reporting about facts, which is refreshing. Of course not written by Dana Hull.

There's a nice quote from the Brandenburg ministry:

“Tesla should be able to use local green power,” the ministry said in a note to Bloomberg News.​

I.e. Tesla will be able to purchase wind and solar energy generated in Brandenburg for GF4's power use.

 

[vikings123]

Looks like we are swinging wildly during premarket with low volumes. I agree that we probably get a good indication of SP around 7 AM EST.

 

[vikings123]

With a proper non-robot title:

"Tesla’s Fast-Track German Plant Charts a Path Through Red Tape" (Bloomberg)
​

I've seen nothing new in it, but the usual Bloomberg anti-Tesla FUD is absent, which is refreshing. Of course not written by Dana Hull.

Yeah sorry lol. No idea why that was flagged.

 

[ProfTournesol]

For how long is the future market halted? Until pre-Market opens in 40 min?

Is it halted, or volume to high for pricing?

 

[Matias]

China's NO2 emissions (which are good proxy for economic activity) have dropped 20% and have not rebounded. NO2 emissions can be measured with satellite data.

Airborne Nitrogen Dioxide Plummets Over China

 

[Fact Checking]

Yeah sorry lol. No idea why that was flagged.

All Bloomberg links pasted directly into TMC comments look like that, it's not your fault.

 

[mars_or_bust]

China's NO2 emissions (which are good proxy for economic activity) have dropped 20% and have not rebounded. NO2 emissions can be measured with satellite data.

Airborne Nitrogen Dioxide Plummets Over China

The data is almost a month old - I suspect the NO2 emissions have mostly rebounded by now.

 

[Fact Checking]

China's NO2 emissions (which are good proxy for economic activity) have dropped 20% and have not rebounded. NO2 emissions can be measured with satellite data.

Airborne Nitrogen Dioxide Plummets Over China

Actually, that's not true. There's a lot of extra remote work and avoidance of travel in China.

A much better proxy for economic activity is coal use by Chinese power plants, which can be real-time tracked via satellite pictures and is independent of any Chinese economic data ... inaccuracies:

​

Note the 2020 line - it's still not back to the baseline of 140-150, but it's above 110 already, which is 75-80% resumption from the low. (Note that the graph is a bit misleading and starts at 60.)

More importantly, there was a significant rebound in Chinese industry activity levels in the last week, and from the low of ~60% utilization of power plants they are now around ~80% utilization.

 

[Mike Smith]

Ford is at 5.90, GM at 26.80. And here we are upset about being up only 68% this year.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yeah sorry lol. No idea why that was flagged.

Bloomberg has purposely rigged their own website so it displays that by default when posting a link on a BB-code forum like TMC. The only workaround is to go back and edit your comment to insert the real webpage title. MODs request that people do so instead of just posting a link without context or comment.

 

[Fact Checking]

Anyone else making an absolute killing lately, having figured out this virus thing 6 weeks ago?

I'm holding longer term SPY puts as insurance against November U.S. elections volatility, but not enough.

What's your current expectations, how long will the coronavirus panic last in your opinion? Do you have any particular benchmark for calling the bottom? I suspect the July expiry was just a wild guess?

South Korea has recovered very nicely, new infections rate is down to 2.2% today, after a peak of ~50% just two weeks ago:

# "South.Korea" daily new infections log:
Feb 19:    27 new cases,     57 total cases (+46.5%)  
Feb 20:    53 new cases,    110 total cases (+47.7%)  #
Feb 21:    96 new cases,    206 total cases (+46.3%)  ###
Feb 22:   232 new cases,    438 total cases (+52.8%)  ########
Feb 24:   397 new cases,    835 total cases (+47.4%)  #############
Feb 25:   144 new cases,    979 total cases (+14.6%)  #####
Feb 26:   284 new cases,   1263 total cases (+22.4%)  #########
Feb 27:   505 new cases,   1768 total cases (+28.5%)  #################
Feb 28:   571 new cases,   2339 total cases (+24.4%)  ###################
Feb 29:   813 new cases,   3152 total cases (+25.7%)  ############################
Mar 01:   586 new cases,   3738 total cases (+15.6%)  ####################
Mar 02:   599 new cases,   4337 total cases (+13.8%)  ####################
Mar 03:   851 new cases,   5188 total cases (+16.4%)  #############################
Mar 04:   435 new cases,   5623 total cases ( +7.7%)  ###############
Mar 05:   467 new cases,   6090 total cases ( +7.6%)  ################
Mar 06:   505 new cases,   6595 total cases ( +7.6%)  #################
Mar 07:   449 new cases,   7044 total cases ( +6.3%)  ###############
Mar 08:   272 new cases,   7316 total cases ( +3.7%)  #########
Mar 09:   165 new cases,   7481 total cases ( +2.2%)  #####

Note how sharply the rate of new cases has dropped - this is similar to how sharply the rate of new cases started dropping in China ~5 weeks ago.

This very fast transitional nature of the outbreak will IMO make it very hard to call the bottom for Europe and for the U.S., which bottom might be mirrored by TSLA too.

Or not. Not advice.

 

[Matias]

Actually, that's not true. There's a lot of extra remote work and avoidance of travel in China.

A much better proxy for economic activity is coal use by Chinese power plants, which can be real-time tracked via satellite pictures and is independent of any Chinese economic data ... inaccuracies:

​

Note the 2020 line - it's still not back to the baseline of 140-150, but it's above 110 already, which is 75-80% resumption from the low. (Note that the graph is a bit misleading and starts at 60.)

More importantly, there was a significant rebound in Chinese industry activity levels in the last week, and from the low of ~60% utilization of power plants they are now around ~80% utilization.

Good. Thanks.

Butt still low compared to 2019?

 

[JBRR]

I'm holding longer term SPY puts as insurance against November U.S. elections volatility, but not enough.

What's your current expectations, how long will the coronavirus panic last in your opinion? Do you have any particular benchmark for calling the bottom? I suspect the July expiry was just a wild guess?

No signal in my choice of expiries - mostly just picked for "long enough for panic to set in".
Main thing I'm looking for right now is broad quarantines and total school shutdowns in the US, and sentiment in average person to reflect how serious the situation is. At that point I think we could have bottomed.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

U.S. 10 year treasury back up to 0.5% from 0.33%: US10Y: U.S. 10 Year Treasury - Stock Price, Quote and News - CNBC