Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Opus BC fan]

Paper losses are still losses.

Holding shares indefinitely without regard to what is happening in the world is a valid strategy. Probably the optimal one for mental health. But it begs the question of why such an investor would spend time on an active trader forum.

Because it is just so informative and entertaining. Seriously.

BTW a big THANK YOU to @ M|S|W for the video download. Awesome!

 

[ZeApelido]

Meanwhile, Nikola is trying to get out and IPO before they have the rug pulled out under then by Tesla Semi production:

Nikola is going public to try to become the first zero-emission big rig company

 

[tinm]

I don't pretend to understand OPEC, WTI, Brent crude price wars etc;

Here’s my blue-sky theory of what’s going on with oil: the rest of the oil-producing world really does not like seeing the US as the biggest producer of fossil fuels. Especially Russia and Saudi Arabia. They know there is a price of oil below which that oil-gushing goldmine known as the Permian Basin in NM and TX is no longer profitable. I think they decided to make a move on the US by dialing down the world price of oil to make the US not only squirm, but to kill the Permian by causing a lot of oil producers there to go bankrupt. I suspect that is what we’re about to see unfold: a move to knock the US off the top of the oil producing charts.

I’m curious what this might do to EV sales if gas goes way under $2 a gallon. I’m sure the oil producers would not mind if EV sales drop as a consequence of their price war.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Reality doesn’t cope well with hope. We may have some market halts tomorrow at 7% and (but hopefully not) 13% drops tmrw. Some will take advantage of drops and adapt and profit. Others will argue the long term nature of stocks and how profiting off market plunges is unethical or unneeded. Neither is wrong. I’m going to try and make money on it though...

Given NASDAQ-100 Futures (currently -4.84%) times the typical 2x beta applied by traders, TLSA could open Mon near the SP which trips the "Uptick Rule" curcuit breaker:

$703.48 - 10% = $633.13​

In this scenario, TSLA could open near the Lower-BB, where it should find support also with the 50 day Moving Avg - MA(50), forming a local bottom. Here's the 50-day Chart:

I'll watch to see how much naked short selling occurs tomorrow if the -10% uptick rule is triggered. MMs the likes of UBS (with their bear price tgt of $425) may be tempted to take advantage while the Market is distracted. The #SEC needs to pay attention.

Naked short selling by Market Makers to support their proprietary trading is ILLEGAL.

On the other hand, if there ISN'T wide-spread naked short selling by MMs (a level playing field in the market) then TSLA could bounce toward the Middle-BB over following 2 days.

That scenario takes the SP back toward a local peak around $775-780 (the Middle-BB continues a slow decline), before selling pressure appears once more, and the next Act begins in this saga of Kabuki Theatre we call Wall St.

Of course, all of this is influenced by News, and is just one possible way in which TSLA market action could play out in the short term. Long term, HODL'ers will be fine.

Not Advice™. Trade Carefully. GLTA.

Cheers!

 

[loquitur]

If you were disappointed you didn't get to watch a video from the twitter thread that featured a video of Jeff Dahn speaking about the research towards the million mile battery and single-crystal approach, thought I would post a link to IOPscience for the Dahn/Dalhousie's papers from September 2019 and the latest one in January 2020, both were published in the Journal of The Electrochemical Society. The twitter thread had screen grabs from the speech that match the images used in the papers, also references to NMC532 (Published 9/6/19) and NMC811 (Published Jan 10). Not as fun a read as listening to Jeff speak (as a professor he's a great presenter and easy to follow) but thought many of you would like to read through both papers before Battery Day.

You can read and/or download the papers (open access) on IOPscience's website. It has this Notice at the top: "NOTICE: Our engineering team is currently investigating significant increases in our website traffic...." Hmmm batteries popular research, who would have thought.

IOPscience

September paper entitled "A Wide Range of Testing Results on an Excellent Lithium-Ion Cell Chemistry to be used as Benchmarks for New Battery Technologies"
Jessie E. Harlow, Xiaowei Ma, Jing Li, Eric Logan, Yulong Liu, Ning Zhang, Lin Ma, Stephen L. Glazier, Marc M. E. Cormier, Matthew Genovese, Samuel Buteau, Andrew Cameron, Jamie E. Stark and J. R. Dahn, 2019 J. Electrochem. Soc. 166 A3031.
Search by: 10.1149/2.0981913jes

January paper entitled "Microstructural Observations of "Single Crystal" Positive Electrode Materials Before and After Long Term Cycling by Cross-section Scanning Electron Microscopy"
Yulong Liu, Jessie Harlow and Jeff Dahn, Published 10 January 2020 • © 2020 The Author(s). Published on behalf of The Electrochemical Society by IOP Publishing Limited, Journal of The Electrochemical Society, Volume 167, Number 2.
Search by: 10.1149/1945-7111/ab6288

For some background some time ago Elon tweeted that Tesla had managed to cut Cobalt down to less than 3% and will use none in the next gen ( Tesla Shanghai Model 3 May Go Cobalt-Free Using CATL's LFP Cells — Diving Deeper | CleanTechnica )
A recent article stated that GM had reduced the use of Cobalt 70% in their new Ultium battery using a proprietary chemistry of their own ( GM says its new low-cobalt EV battery cell has 60% more capacity - Electrek ). Theirs uses NCMA. GM reportedly plans to license theirs to other companies. Here's an article on Tesla's patent on their new million mile battery ( Tesla patents new chemistry for better, longer-lasting and cheaper batteries - Electrek ).

Not everything mentioned in the twitter thread by those that had watched the video of Jeff's speech was included in the papers. No luck finding the video anywhere and looked to be from possibly a lecture he was holding and recorded by one of the students there. Probably won't resurface. My husband watched part of it but it was late and he only got half way through and thought he could come back to it and when I went to watch it myself it had been taken down. Glad to have found the papers nonetheless.

You mean this Prof. Dahn video, perhaps: Dropbox - Jeff Dahn (Tesla Battery Research) Talking Lithium Battery Additives.mp4 - Simplify your life

 

[StealthP3D]

Holding shares indefinitely without regard to what is happening in the world is a valid strategy. Probably the optimal one for mental health. But it begs the question of why such an investor would spend time on an active trader forum.

Oh my! Really?

Even long-term buy and hold investors need an early warning to exit their position in the event something fundamental changes their original investment thesis! I'm surprised I would even need to explain this to you. It makes me wonder what else you are missing. There is no better way to stay informed about your investments than an investor forum such as this.

We could do without the fear-mongering and innuendo pretending this forum is only for "active traders". That's ridiculous. I'll trade at any moment I think it increases my return, reduces my risk/reward ratio or I want to deploy the capital elsewhere. And not before. You are free to trade as many times per day or week you like.

 

[sundaymorning]

The Taycan looks like a sad clown. Your Model 3 seems to have a smile on it.

Taycan is a good looking car, Tesla needs to refresh the Model S after the Y is scaled and put everyone to sleep for good. Make the S look like a longer and wider version of the Roadster with 4 doors and count me in.

 

[ABC2D]

Futures trading halted, a bood-bath Monday is here

 

[StealthP3D]

Paper losses are still losses.

I don't know where to begin on this.

Let's just say that on the way to becoming a millionaire many times over, I have paper "losses" more than 100 times as large as the millions that I took home in the form of realized gains.

You are counting "paper losses" on intra-day price moves, aren't you? Or do only end of day closing prices count?

Taken to the extreme, we can count losses anytime the bid price drops from the last trade.

 

[SMAlset]

You mean this Prof. Dahn video, perhaps: Dropbox - Jeff Dahn (Tesla Battery Research) Talking Lithium Battery Additives.mp4 - Simplify your life

yes, thanks @mblakele beat you to posting a dropbox link for me a few pages back. Everyone here is great and very helpful

 

[vikings123]

Given NASDAQ-100 Futures (currently -4.84%) times the typical 2x beta applied by traders, TLSA could open Mon near the SP which trips the "Uptick Rule" curcuit breaker:

$703.48 - 10% = $633.13​

In this scenario, TSLA could open near the Lower-BB, where it should find support also with the 50 day Moving Avg - MA(50), forming a local bottom. Here's the 50-day Chart:

View attachment 519715

I'll watch to see how much naked short selling occurs tomorrow if the -10% uptick rule is triggered. MMs the likes of UBS (with their bear price tgt of $425) may be tempted to take advantage while the Market is distracted. The #SEC needs to pay attention.

Naked short selling by Market Makers to support their proprietary trading is ILLEGAL.

On the other hand, if there ISN'T wide-spread naked short selling by MMs (a level playing field in the market) then TSLA could bounce toward the Middle-BB over following 2 days.

That scenario takes the SP back toward a local peak around $775-780 (the Middle-BB continues a slow decline), before selling pressure appears once more, and the next Act begins in this saga of Kabuki Theatre we call Wall St.

Of course, all of this is influenced by News, and is just one possible way in which TSLA market action could play out in the short term. Long term, HODL'ers will be fine.

Not Advice™. Trade Carefully. GLTA.

Cheers!

Great stuff. how does this scenario play out if TSLA goes below 10% in premarket? Or is the market halted until regular open because the futures are down 5%?

 

[PeterJA]

...The permabull mindset will cost a lot of people a lot of money. It cost me a lot of money in my earlier experiences trading TSLA.

I'd say what cost you a lot of money was selling TSLA, not the permabull mindset. If you hadn't sold, you would've lost nothing.

As someone may have mentioned before, paper losses are not losses (if you don't sell).

 

[Krugerrand]

But it begs the question of why such an investor would spend time on an active trader forum.

Free entertainment.

 

[StealthP3D]

We may have some market halts tomorrow at 7% and (but hopefully not) 13% drops tmrw. Some will take advantage of drops and adapt and profit. Others will argue the long term nature of stocks and how profiting off market plunges is unethical or unneeded. Neither is wrong. I’m going to try and make money on it though...

You list two outcomes:

1) Sit tight, do nothing.
2) Take action and profit.

You forgot the third possibility:

3) Take action and lose either your position or your money.

 

[MP3Mike]

Chinese model Y starts end of March, says Chao Zhou on Twitter.

Twitter

Loving this hypergrowth.

But yet another news source today said that the MIC Model Y had been delayed from December to early next year because of COVID19. So maybe he means March 2021.

Here is more information: 首批国产特斯拉车主，被“割了韭菜”

In addition, the domestic Model Y is currently in the pre-fixed stage, is expected to be put into production in October, the original plan to be listed by the end of December 2020, but because of the impact of the outbreak, the listing plan was delayed, is expected to be postponed to January 2021 listing;

 

[Ameliorate]

We have investors with every type of strategy and instrument available, while the buy and hold shares indefinitely is a lovely plan for some, it wont be picked up by everybody. I pretty much just buy calls and puts for now, and while it's not as safe by any means, I was able to transform a very small amount of money by a huge amount on TSLA calls so this is one case where leverage was certainly worthwhile. Even if I lost 95% (not gonna happen ) I still have a much larger sum to invest into Tesla. My SPX puts will be up huge and my thoughts on this whole situation is the better our investors do here, the more money ultimately flows into TSLA shares and calls which should be celebrated.

I certainly appreciate the people who sound the alarm when global events are going off as much as I appreciate those sharing their insights and knowledge on Tesla. I would be....nowhere without you all. So thank you.

That said, this should never turn into WSB and important sub topics that bring a lot of discussion seem to do well in their own thread, please help the mods by using appropriate threads (guilty at times). If it absolutely feels pertinent to post in this thread, lets say some NCOV emergency, maybe cross post in both threads and in this TSLA thread mention "Replies in coronavirus thread only" and anyone interested in the topic can zip over there. Just a thought?

The better we do as a whole, the better we can support Tesla, and in a virtuous circle one begets the other and Tesla keeps hitting ATH's.
I don't know how much we add up to as a whole but as our portfolio's grow and TMC membership expands, all I can say is there's only 140M roughly shares up for grabs after Elon. Doesn't seem like a whole lot when many of you have thousands and have no plans to go anywhere except accumulate more

I'm not going to comment on which strategy is best, you do you; and whichever you pick, you own it. doesn't matter who's recommendation you went off of. But definitely acknowledge that for some of us, daily events can be important, and some of us couldn't care less what the stock does between now and 2030 so long as fundamentals are good. Just because it's not Your strategy doesn't make it wrong. We're all here (mostly ....) for Tesla to succeed.

 

[SMAlset]

Meanwhile, Nikola is trying to get out and IPO before they have the rug pulled out under then by Tesla Semi production:

Nikola is going public to try to become the first zero-emission big rig company

Less than a year ago, just last April Milton said he had no plans to go public. Nikola Motor Company shows off two real trucks and... a new jet ski?

There are now a few oil companies in the Hydrogen Council so you can be sure the negative pressure will still be on BEV technology and Tesla—nothing new from the oil guys. Hydrogen Council membership swells to 81 companies

 

[Dr. J]

Anyone thinking of putting in some super low buy orders to try catching the falling knife?

 

[Artful Dodger]

But it begs the question of why such an investor would spend time on an active trader forum.

This is NOT an active trader forum. It is an INVESTOR forum. There is a trader's forum on TMC; recommend you visit.

Wall St. makes money on the churn. That's why they love to whipsaw TSLA.

But ask yourself, with all the trading you did, are you ahead vs simple buy'n'hold or is just your Broker ahead? And at what cost to your time and stress level? What is your investment horizon, or are you simply day trading this stock because its volatile?

There's no answer you will hear to the question you asked about why else investors are at this forum if not to trade TSLA, if you can't first answer these questions yourself.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Mike Smith wrote, 35 minutes ago
"Huh, WTI crude is down 32% tonight..."

"On Friday, Saudi authorities rounded up the brother and a nephew of Prince Mohammed’s father, King Salman bin Abdulaziz, on the grounds they were plotting a coup, according to a person familiar with the matter."​

Saudi Arabia MBS Middle East News: Power in Oil Kingdom | Bloomberg