Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Remus]

Although Bay Area hospitals are anticipating a large influx of cv patients starting this week so not sure about that...

Comparing to New York?

I'm not saying we are out of woods already. But clearly from the number of confirmed case and the number of hospitalized cases we are no were near the level of New York or Italy.

Santa Clara being one of the hardest hit area early on, now no longer the national focus should tell you something. Large percentage of people in the area hunkered down even before the restrictions from the government contributed greatly. Bay area tech companies asked their employees to work from home earlier than the government did much.

We called thecounty health office starting February asking them to shut down the area. They draged their feet but still was the first in the nation to do that. Huge community effort of donating PPE to hospital. All these effort paid off as you can see calm from Bay area doctors and hospitals.

 

[Lessmog]

Medium is an open blogging platform that anyone can post to. The author here cites no scientific study, just conjecture. I can post a hundred SeekingAlpha articles with charts and graphs proving Tesla is doomed - did you read this article with the same skepticism that you would them? If not, it's worth asking yourself why.

The entire country of South Korea believes that fans left on overnight kill people. There are plenty of blog posts to support this, and fans in South Korea are legally required to have timers that automatically switch them off to protect people. There is no science to back this either.

No, the fattened portion is right out not true. I just re-scanned the article and counted about a dozen links (did not follow them but they seemed bona fide by their titles and urls).

AND YOU ARE STILL POSTING IN THE WRONG THREAD!! Stop that. Go here instead:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/coronavirus

 

[dww12]

Weeks ago there were a lot of potential outcomes, most concerning was this idea we'd see 2.2M deaths in the US.

It's become clear that's no longer a possible outcome, so markets are popping back. They may still tank on an eventual recession, but they now know the end of the world isn't here.

We are not out of the 2.2M woods. 1/2 the country still thinks it’s a hoax and the other 1/2 have to periodically interact with them, undoing everything.

 

[mrdoubleb]

If I believed a good P&D report was capable of keeping us above $600 over the next month, I would be deploying more dry powder at these levels. The reason I don't believe that is I think the uncertainty of just how long production will be shut will seep into the investor mindset and have more sway than even a really strong P&D report. In other words, any bounce would be short-lived without evidence that production would be re-starting soon. That's kind of a fundamental requirement to moving substantially higher and staying there.



Yeah, a strong P&D report would definitely support a higher floor for the likely case when the fear of a protracted recession is peaking. Personally, I don't see a protracted recession because the underlying economy is strong. CV has definitely dented the economy deeply. You can't just "buff that out" but I don't see a protracted recession.

I think any forward looking projections on Q2, annual numbers, or factory restarts will be much more important in the report than actual Q1 deliveries. These are optional of course, Tesla may just keep it short and only talk about Q1.

For Q1 I think if they are above 100k deliveries that may initiate a short spike up, but the likelihood of that is low. If they are in the 85-95 range, that would be "as expected". Anything less than 80k will be taken badly.

Still all of this will be marginally important in the current situation as everyone will focus on Q2 and beyond. If they say nothing, we may lose support at the 500 level as it will keep the uncertainty high. If they do some downward guidance, I think to a certain point that may be priced in already, so it would be better just to get over with it. I see zero chance of anyone believing them if they say 2020 targets are unchanged.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Their reasoning for this recommendation is that they don't believe you are smart enough to wear a mask without putting it on incorrectly because you haven't been through 8 years of medical school. I did 4 of engineering school, so I think I can figure out when I have the mask on inside out and upside down.

I had old stock of N95 masks that are not "new, still in the wrapper," so I wouldn't donate them because they don't want someone else's used masks. But I sure do wear them to go grocery shopping. You can see the gears turning in the heads of other shoppers. They look at you like something's wrong with you at first, then you can see in their eyes that they start wondering why they aren't wearing a mask.

After wearing one, I put it in the toaster oven at 175 degf to disinfect it.

Looking forward to the day when everyone is wearing masks. Right now it's the only explanation why some countries have lower rates of infection.

I don’t see TSLA discussion here. It seems this might be more appropriate in the CV thread.

 

[powertoold]

Oh my, are you guys seeing that new article on Electrek about RWD Model Y? What a joke. Tesla isn't starting RWD deliveries. I have a RWD order, and I completed that info on my order 2 weeks ago. It's more a glitch on the website than "demand drop."

What a joke!!

 

[jerry33]

Oh my, are you guys seeing that new article on Electrek about RWD Model Y? What a joke. Tesla isn't starting RWD deliveries. I have a RWD order, and I completed that info on my order 2 weeks ago. It's more a glitch on the website than "demand drop."

What a joke!!

Electrek is only in it for clicks. Best not to give them any.

 

[dww12]

Oh my, are you guys seeing that new article on Electrek about RWD Model Y? What a joke. Tesla isn't starting RWD deliveries. I have a RWD order, and I completed that info on my order 2 weeks ago. It's more a glitch on the website than "demand drop."

What a joke!!

There is a posts in the Y MB about picking up an inventory PY.

Model Y delivery yesterday - few thoughts relative to a 2017 MX P100DL

 

[StealthP3D]

I think any forward looking projections on Q2, annual numbers, or factory restarts will be much more important in the report than actual Q1 deliveries. These are optional of course, Tesla may just keep it short and only talk about Q1.

I see zero chance of anyone believing them if they say 2020 targets are unchanged.

Forward guidance can't happen until the end of April after earnings are released. Management is unlikely to give solid guidance unless production has restarted (or they have good visibility on when that would be). And if production has started, I would expect whatever guidance management gives to be taken very seriously by a lot of people.

 

[HG Wells]

Is the FED buying stocks ?
Would we know if they are ?

 

[hobbes]

True, not only that the leveling works are almost finished they also now officially applied for ground breaking to start with the foundation.

That request will very likely be approved as sources confirm it. Also its under the same restriction they used before which sets that if something unexpected happened its on Teslas risks to rebuilt the area. Thats the legal restriction but unlikely to happen.

As of now all workers, material and resources to continue the works are available and I don't see a reasons for that to stop.

In fact the German Government is looking for positive news in this crisis and will continue to do what is needed to get that factory asap up and running.

Beside the GF3 in china the development in Germany is promising indeed. It may take time for the market to understand that and once they do they will start to see Tesla more positive again.

The same is true for deliveries. All Automakers did stop deliveries but Tesla because of their direct sales model and touchles hand-over process. There is a lot where Tesla can surprise.

Found a newspaper article that also says Brandenburg state government plans to allow foundation laying:
Google Translate

According to BZ information, Brandenburg's state environmental agency now wants to allow foundation construction in advance. Despite 373 objections to the project. Reason: the positive forecast for the final approval of the car factory, confirmed by the Higher Administrative Court.

 

[Ameliorate]

Is the FED buying stocks ?
Would we know if they are ?

There was talk of some large buys on bonds going through.
Then Curt posted about hedge fund re balancing end of quarter because they were weighted too heavily into bonds vs equities after the bonds performed better as of late.
Either way, if the feds buy bonds or equities the money trickles into equities eventually. Very possible that's the reason for the positive macros today.

 

[anthonyj]

Buy calls?

 

[Christine69420]

Only Electric, please

Norwegian EV site elbil.no has an article about the VW Golf and it's four different engines.

Bensin=petrol.

In 2010 90% of the VW Golfs sold had a diesel engine. But now in 2020 the fossil fuel options has fallen dramatically out of fashion.

Later this year VW launches the 8th generation VW Golf. It will only come in petrol and hybrid variants. The ID 3 will continue Volkswagen's EV efforts from now on.

Source: Historien om Golf i Norge – fra diesel til elektrisk

 

[ProfTournesol]

Not an investment advise, but Q1 looks good! I’m ready!

(edit)
Expect very few cars that have to be delivered next quarter. If you follow the shipments, you know what has been delivered this quarter in Europe.

 

[TLLMRRJ]

I don’t see TSLA discussion here. It seems this might be more appropriate in the CV thread.

Tesla will be impacted by what I said.

 

[Buckminster]

Forward guidance can't happen until the end of April after earnings are released. Management is unlikely to give solid guidance unless production has restarted (or they have good visibility on when that would be). And if production has started, I would expect whatever guidance management gives to be taken very seriously by a lot of people.

Good point - likely they will delay earnings date in order to capitalise on any good news and improved data.

 

[The Accountant]

Tesla will be impacted by what I said.

Your're kidding....right?
putting your mask in the toaster oven at 175 degf to disinfect it.....so what are you saying? Should I sell or buy?

 

[Christine69420]

It's snowing in Grüneheide - but the GF4 area work goes on.

Youtube user GigaBerlin/GigaFactory4 filmed this earlier today:

 

[Dwdnjck]

On 3/18 BofA/ML, after 10 years of being wrong, upgraded their rating of TSLA to hold with a 12 month price target of $500. Bullish? Or Bearish?