Tesla closed production because suppliers were not meeting the orders. Opening the production line will require all suppliers are back to work. Hard to see if this is possible without Tesla commenting on it.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Tesla closed production because suppliers were not meeting the orders. Opening the production line will require all suppliers are back to work. Hard to see if this is possible without Tesla commenting on it.
powertoold
Active Member
Tesla Fremont factory isn't closed because of the order.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
The action here at the close and into after hours looks very suspicious to me. You’d expect a bigger recovering based on the volume of the green bars (disclaimer: E*Trade doesn’t provide the best of graphs)
I know. But it might be a harbinger for difficulties in other areas of the country / world. Maybe not. Hopefully not.
But that's just the production component. Again I think folks here are vastly underestimating the potential hit on demand this upcoming recession is going to take.
Tesla is better, but not fundamentally different from other Auto companies.
Coronavirus drives U.S. March auto sales off a cliff
Car buying in April is going to plummet.
After people are back to work around the globe, demand will come back month by month, but it may take a while (3, 6 months?).
Remember I was always noting how Model Y was underhyped to reduce hurting of Model 3 (maybe S/X too). This was intentional. So fear of Model 3 drop in sales / ASP was real, even before any COVID recession issues.
It's mindboggling to think that demand is not going to be significantly affected.
powertoold
Active Member
There are estimates that EV sales will approach 8-9 million a year by 2025. If Tesla has a demand problem with 400-500k cars a year now, EVs are not the future.
Demand for EVs, ICE vehicles, vacation trips and many many products will have major demand issues this year.
You can’t extrapolate from one year with a pandemic and the associated global economic slowdown with which products will and won’t be “the future”.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Man, I don't know when we've become so lazy.
There's a trend that I've been noticing lately. When I state something I read and says that the result is certain outcome. So many people asks for a link or just says that the proof is not credible because it is from such and such website.
If you only bothering googling it (and I am just pulling it out my behind here) "Scientific studies on effectiveness of masks for protection against influenza". You'd find numerous studies that are done according to PHD standards with peer reviews. In fact I know this to be true because I did exactly this when people didn't believe me at the beginning of the outbreak.
Now this is not a post about COVID19. This is a post about ppl being lazy. Especially recently. It might be due us being pampered by people like Fact Checking who always provide perfectly reasoned post with links to various research. But seriously, it is up to each individual to research claims and to choose who to believe. People who provide more research and links might be easier to believe because it doesn't take effort to verify, but the biggest profits are from statements that are hard to verify. Do your own due diligence. Because ultimately, your investment decision should be your own choice to make.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
You can when you're supply constrained, total market is growing 50% every year, and there are literally no product alternatives.
China is already back to work, 2 months after lockdowns began there in Wuhan. Tesla's Wuhan store reopened today.
Tesla reopens Wuhan store as China regains footing after COVID-19 outbreak
USA sheltering in place began 2 weeks ago. Your guess of 3-6 months more to go seems unlikely.
Depends how you define "significant." Enough to affect TSLA traders looking for any excuse to sell or delay buying? Of course. Enough to affect buy-and-hold investors? No.
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While nobody knows how long this will last, it's misleading to compare any other place to Wuhan. People were basically nailed to their flats for weeks in Wuhan. There was a period when it wasn't allowed to leave home at all. All food was delivered by three express services (China post, JD express, SF express) operating during the lockdown. There is no comparable lockdown currently even in Spain or Italy, let alone US.
European or US version of lockdown might work too, but measures taken in Wuhan were completely next level.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
In all seriousness, I think Elon is a fan of S-curves (especially as they pertain to technological innovation). The image shows exponential graphs, but his text is "Logarithm graphs coming soon" which means he's expecting the top-half of the S-curve to arrive shortly for infections.
powertoold
Active Member
Prior to corona, let's say Tesla has worldwide S3XY demand of 750,000 a year. The corona has hit, and we can estimate a 40% drop in demand (a lot). That's still over 400k a year of demand.
I'm not saying that Tesla is safe, but it's definitely safer than a lot of OEMs.
So car sales there are back to normal?
If anything my guess is shanghai production numbers
Tesla car sales are likely to be up, since Tesla is ramping China production as fast as they can, and doubling the size of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai hits 3K Model 3 per week as China revives car production in C-19 epicenter
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I hope so too, but it's far from clear.
Europe (and probably US too) are seeing a decrease in cases, but I cannot see numbers going to zero anytime soon. Wuhan has had zero domestic cases recently. We don't know yet what happens in Europe&US if cases are above zero and quarantine measures are loosened.
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