Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mkorpal]

This hour long webcast was held by Viya, who is arguably the number one influencer in China (TOP 5 Chinese Influencers that sell out products in minutes in 2020! Tmall and WeChat). IMO, this is HUGE. This is how much she normally charges to advertise products, though.. so no idea if Tesla actually paid for her to do this webcast or what:

View attachment 537128

Does Tesla qualify as a domestic makeup brand or an oversees makeup brand?

 

[Boomer19]

I bought some of Tesla's 2024 convertible bonds at a discount some time ago.View attachment 537118

It seems that Tesla has opened up optional conversion of these bonds now. I just got email from ETrade:

a) I think it's an interesting move on their part at this instant in time. I'm trying to understand their motivation. Basically it converts borrowing into equity if someone converts. This is not dilution, in the sense that it doesn't water down the value per share of the company, since the assets go up in lockstep. It could be preliminary to another capital raise though? Clean up the balance sheet to make it look better?

b) What does it mean for me personally? If I convert now, I get 32.276 shares at a cost basis of $309.83, funnily enough that's $10,000.08. But I forgo the 2% annual coupon which is $800 over the next 4 years (I presume I get this year's $200).

c) This is actual news... why can't I find it reported anywhere, or commented about, in the media?

I think I'm going to convert, on the theory that it must be good for Tesla or they wouldn't have made the offer, and hence it will increase the value of my other Tesla investments.

convertibles may have pre-defined periods “windows” where holders can convert - or it my be up to the company, agent, brokers, i’m not really sure which. so that would explain why there’s no news.

the sec documentation should state so. if i have a chance i’ll look it up and try to find it. i just can’t remember off hand. but it’s an interesting point

for part B
yes, you’re swapping the $10,000 you paid for 10 bonds for $10,000 worth in shares of tesla at a deep discount to current market price $30x.xx. the terms state tesla can dictate cash, stock. or mixed. but etrade i clearly telling you that you can convert for shares. which i can’t imagine taking any other choice but shares right now anyway.

for the interest.
you’ll get pro-rated accrued interest for the part of the year you held your converts. you shouldn’t miss out on the whole year of AI


excerpt from prospectus - 424B5
Holders may convert their notes at their option at any time prior to the close of business on the business day immediately preceding February 15, 2024 only under the following circumstances: (1) during any calendar quarter commencing after the calendar quarter ending on September 30, 2019 (and only during such calendar quarter), if the last reported sale price of the common stock for at least 20 trading days (whether or not consecutive) during a period of 30 consecutive trading days ending on the last trading day of the immediately preceding calendar quarter is greater than or equal to 130% of the conversion price for the notes on each trading day; (2) during the five business day period after any five consecutive trading day period (the “measurement period”) in which the trading price (as defined below) per $1,000 principal amount of notes for each trading day of the measurement period was less than 98% of the product of the last reported sale price of our common stock and the conversion rate on each such trading day; or (3) upon the occurrence of specified corporate events. On or after February 15, 2024 until the close of business on the second scheduled trading day immediately preceding the maturity date, holders may convert their notes at any time. Upon conversion of notes, we will deliver cash, shares of our common stock or a combination of cash and shares of our common stock, at our election, as described in this prospectus supplement.

The conversion rate with respect to the notes will initially be 3.2276 shares of common stock per $1,000 principal amount of notes (equivalent to an initial conversion price of approximately $309.83 per share of common stock). The conversion rate will be subject to adjustment in some events but will not be adjusted for any accrued and unpaid interest. In addition, following certain corporate events that occur prior to the maturity date, we will increase the conversion rate for a holder who elects to convert its notes in connection with such a corporate event in certain circumstances.

 

[Mike Smith]

You do realize you're advocating for an increase in sickness and death for money, right?

If you want to save lives beyond what is necessary to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed, a much smarter approach would be to ban cigarettes. Cigarettes kill 500,000 Americans per year and banning them would not require shutting down the entire economy..

 

[CaliBear1]

Perhaps because he knows the overreaching Bay Area Lockdown is going to significantly impact Tesla's bottom line and create a negative cascade effect. I sure hope guidance in a few hours assures me that this interpretation is completely off!

What concerns me most is that Elon is seemingly desperate and emotional, neither is a good sign. All caps rage tweeting is not a good look, nor is it productive or rational.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think Q3 and Q4 could see such rapid growth that you will be fine. But if you are more comfortable with a later call that’s not a bad move. Someone more experienced than me can speak on it but rolling up to a later date and possibly having the chance to buy back the same call you have now for cheaper tomorrow could be a win win.

Oh that's the temptation but also how your total holdings in TSLA can slip away (if the stock goes up tomorrow and keeps going).
I'm pretty sure I can at least get this price again by Jan '21 as well.
This is feeling like this time last year this time when earnings were really bad and the stock dove. I'll be saddened, my Model Y won't get ordered yet, but at least I'll still have the same ownership of the company. The comeback is always stronger with this one, and I have lots of powder ready.

 

[MP3Mike]

Elon has deleted his controversial Coronavirus tweets from last night.

And they're back... So he must not have deleted them. Twitter must have hid them.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC just now teased that it will shortly be interviewing an analyst regarding Tesla.

 

[Jovian]

And they're back... So he must not have deleted them. Twitter must have hid them.

Yeah during those 25 minutes they were still viewable with the link, but weren't showing up when you visited his twitter page. So either Twitter was hiding them electively or with some algorithm, or it was glitching which ThirdRow seems to be claiming:
Third Row Tesla Podcast on Twitter

Guess it depends on if it was happening to other accounts to figure out which it was.

I've since deleted those posts as to clear up some confusion.

So...Market is super green, Tesla is sharing in this rally, what are your expectations on stock price movement in the next 1-2 months if guidance is reiterated or if guidance is removed?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Perhaps because he knows the overreaching Bay Area Lockdown is going to significantly impact Tesla's bottom line and create a negative cascade effect. I sure hope guidance in a few hours assures me I completely misread his tweet!

And yet the SP is holding up very well, even after bad factory news and controversial tweets. That means all those institutional investors believe the correct thing is to hold through today.

The tweet was just some anger in the moment, and dumb. Nothing more. Q2 will suck... but 2nd half, look out, $1,300 IMO.

 

[Jovian]

Seems manufacturing may not be included in modification to shelter at home order in Alameda county (I think modifications go into effect next week), but the full story and details will be available at eastbaytimes.com soon.

"Breaking: New Bay Area shelter at home order revised to allow: Golf, tennis, Construction with safety protocols, landscaping and gardening, groups of 12 or fewer kids meeting for recreational or educational purposes. story soon"

David DeBolt on Twitter

 

[oldTAVguy]

CNBC just now teased that it will shortly be interviewing an analyst regarding Tesla.

Joseph Osha JMP Securities Ranked #986 out of 6,525 Analysts on TipRanks

A good one

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - 7 minutes ago: California proposes an increase in electric trucks to 300,000 by 2035 - Electrek

 

[ggr]

(1) during any calendar quarter commencing after the calendar quarter ending on September 30, 2019 (and only during such calendar quarter), if the last reported sale price of the common stock for at least 20 trading days (whether or not consecutive) during a period of 30 consecutive trading days ending on the last trading day of the immediately preceding calendar quarter is greater than or equal to 130% of the conversion price for the notes on each trading day;

OK, it looks like it was a routine triggering of that clause. I would have read the prospectus at the time I bought in, but hey, that was a year ago.

 

[Hock1]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Apparently millions in China watched a Tesla webcast about the car? This has to be bullish

Today, at 3:00, there is a webcast of "Tesla Energy Products" exclusively for Florida Tesla Enthusiasts Club. Any other Clubs on this "exclusive" webcast??

 

[Remus]

It's not the crazy tweet I am most worried about.

Elon has shared some information online only to confirm his belief, to the degree not unlike climate change deniers cherry-pick information to confirm their belief. The similarity is striking. With climate change, although with overwhelming evidence indicating the likeness of human caused global temperature rising and dire consequences, there are still literatures from legitimate scientists questioning or argue against these evidences. The climate change deniers grab on these and deny the existence of real evidence. Here with this new virus there is a lot we don't know. Unfortunately Elon only look at one side of the arguments and ignore the overwhelming facts that contradict his belief.


In my opinion this is pretty far away from the first principle thinking he was known for. He allowed himself into an echo chamber of confirmation bias. Fortunately from the past experiences we know there are people near him who are not just yes men, and maybe these people can help him get out of that echo chamber

 

[juanmedina]

OK, I think I was debating the same action (but not quite up to speed on the lingo).
I have an $800 Call Exp Jan '21. It's double what I paid already.
If there is another deep dive on TSLA this year, I'd rather have more time for things to recover. So should I cash in today and buy one for say late '21 instead?

from my limited experience I can only say that if you are going to sell the call buy the other ones right away. I had two calls that I sold when they were double what I paid for and I planed to buy some more calls with that money. I decided to wait until the next day thinking that the stock would go down and I would get a better deal..... long story short the next day the stock when up 100 bucks and I decided not to chase the call and now they are worth double what I sold mine for .

 

[StealthP3D]

So whether you believe he’s right in his opinions or not, your main concern should be with how that affects Tesla’s public image when those tweets are put out.

I think substance is more important than image. In other words, how the tweets actually impact our future vs. the superficial image of them.

Just remember, you and I are not the final arbiters of how tweets impact the world. Things are not always how they appear on the surface. Are you familiar with chaos theory and the butterfly effect?

Elon is.

 

[Singuy]

Elon's tweet suggests that Fremont won't open for another month. Q2 will be a disaster with only one month of production in the US. No S&P 500 this year. I'm predicting we are below 700 at the end of the week. (Since I'm usually wrong, now is a good time to buy OTM calls while I miss out....)

P.S. - I've learned that for the opposite to happen, I have to actually post my thoughts on the www so the world can keep track of how often I'm wrong. You're welcome, again.

I think demand and gross margins are all that matters to wall street right now as they figured Tesla can make it up with pent up demand later in the year. Tesla not opening until June was priced in when the county announced shelter in place until then. Everyone knows Tesla sells well in the US. It was always a huge ? about China. As confidence grow in China this stock is being prices in for that certainty.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Seems manufacturing may not be included in modification to shelter at home order in Alameda county (I think modifications go into effect next week), but we'll have full story and details at eastbaytimes.com soon.

"Breaking: New Bay Area shelter at home order revised to allow: Golf, tennis, Construction with safety protocols, landscaping and gardening, groups of 12 or fewer kids meeting for recreational or educational purposes. story soon"

David DeBolt on Twitter

Call me biased from the poor side, but those all seem to almost exclusively benefit the richer side of Americans. Not many poor people play golf or tennis, have gardeners or landscapers, richer classes are smaller, and construction may seem more all--but it's the richer neighborhoods who tend to get their streets worked on sooner and more often.

I can see the reasoning behind it--those activities are notably further distance-based than, say, football--but still. I can see some people bringing up these "rich privileges" being excepted when they can't do their own ones. Hopefully the order details the basis behind these exceptions (such as the distance between tennis partners) and not just names them.

 

[Remus]

I said that before and I say it now, you don't like it -> GTFO

Simple.

I remains a Tesla supporter but disagree with your sentiment. Tesla's mission sends a message of respecting science and live/consume responsibly. The recent tweet make a lot of people who has been on board with that message disappointed.