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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Margin figure suggests Shanghai margin is around 30%! Based on that, Q2 S&P inclusion chances are improved but still low likelihood.

Q3 inclusion looks nailed on.

Zach commented Shanghai margins are approaching Fremont margins, so they are not at 30% yet. I'm guessing they were ~15%.

Agree about S&P 500 inclusion being basically a lock for Q3.
 
Absolutely agree, but I expected him to have a much more cerebral reaction than this. He sounds like a spoiled brat who's throwing his toys out of the pram because he can't get what he wants from gov. and state officials as easily as he used to.


If the federal says you’re essential, the state can say you can open, you can prove that your business is most likely safer than a grocery store, could possibly make S&P by being open 2/3 of the quarter instead of 1/3, have proven your factory can run successfully with COVID as proven in China, but then held up by some local asshat in the Bay Area? Yeah.....I think you’d be upset too. But, I do wish he would have been a bit more tactful. One thing is for sure, we know exactly how he feels.
 
Exactly. According to the Federal government, Fremont is essential business. The governor said to open manufacturing. But the Bay Area is doing it's own thing.... o_O

Honestly it’s unclear to me why as a Bay Area resident. The leadership isn’t providing the reasoning. I’d have confidence in the decisions if I knew the public health and government leadership to be particularly “talented,” but I know this not to be the case.

This is the void that I think Elon’s dealing with and I can see how it could drive him crazy. It doesn’t excuse the manner in which he’s conveying his frustration, however.
 
Imma prob call it quits now.

I’m made.

Mods need to delete or remove posts from users yelling at other users of where they should post.

Because if user A is semi-off topic and in a general forum, replying or adding to a topic

Their post is 100% better and contributes more than somebody typing “HURR DURR GO POST THAT THERE”

I’m not a mod. I don’t tell people where to post.

And you non mod people who sign on and berate aren’t mods either.

Mods do your jobs or do your jobs.

No benefit in Karen’s taking over.

I’m out. Best of luck. Love, except Karen’s, y’all go **** yourselves.
 
wouldn’t be the first tech company to move jobs out of Cal to Tx and other states due to Governmental regulations/cost.

I don’t doubt Tesla will be a less centric Cal company as they vigorously expand in the next 10 years.
Yep the Santa Clara valley used to be the predominant manufacturer of Hard Disk Drives. Almost all of it was moved out of the US in the 1990s. Whole factories of equipment were packed up and relocated.
 
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That's a lot of credits. InsideEV's reported 21,225 Teslas sold in Q1 in Europe.

Europe: Tesla Model 3 Sales Surged In March To #1 In Q1 2020

so that would be $16,700 per vehicle! Per some earlier analysis I did, those would all be "Supercredit" vehicles with a maximum penalty reduction value of $21,194 each (19,490€) which would imply FCA is paying Tesla ~80% of their penalty reduction value. That seems like an awfully lot.

There are a lot of variables in those calculations, mainly the number of FCA ICE vehicles sold. I may try to dig that up when tonight's hangover wears off.

It's likely that ~$135M of Q1's credits were from 2019 credit sales to FCA that were on the balance sheet as of Q4'19. So I don't think you can use these to calculate 2020 credit payments from FCA.

One other poster made a good point about credit sales usually peaking in Q1. It seems quite possible we won't see the 2020 FCA credit sales hit the income statement until Q1'21.
 
I’m up an island.

Maybe 2 jet skis? Idk. I’m already spending my gains. Anybody recommend a jet ski?

I’m in the market for 2 that a model x can tow. It was from my last gains.

I personally invested in these guys (who I wish Tesla would buy as it goes perfectly with the 'fun' theme): Taiga
Expect to receive my 'founders' electric watercraft this summer.
 
The report is good. Yes.. But those numbers are not realistic, unless $TSLA magically added a bunch of crazy shorts during the march dip who haven't covered yet.

For those who are talking about S&P inclusion... Can you explain to me how we get to a profitable Q2? What's the path to profitability this quarter?
Q1 profits are primarily derived from credits (which may not be this large). They lost ~1month in Q1. They have already lost 1month in Q2, and will lose another 2-4 weeks (if not more)...

Also S&P inclusion has historically been a ~5-10% movement... Which in the $TSLA world, is just another Tuesday... So may not be as big a deal. If anything, it would dampen volatility, which would suck honestly.

Twitter stock went from $25 at the start of 2018 and $30 before Q1'18 earnings all the way up to $45 upon S&P 500 inclusion in June 2018, a 50% move.

And we all know that due to delta hedging mechanisms and the price elasticity of a large portion of TSLA holders, TSLA is a lot more volatile than most other stocks.

It's hard to say for sure, but upon the forced buying of 10-20M shares as part of S&P 500 inclusion, I could easily see TSLA @ $1,500-2,000. It'd definitely be more than a 5-10% movement. It is possible though that a small portion of S&P 500 inclusion is already priced into TSLA stock as of earlier this year.
 
Model Y production is impressive:
  • faster than Model 3 rampup at Giga Shangai
  • already profitable at launch

As Zach also commented, it's likely that at least part of this is due to sharing some costs with the M3 program at Fremont. I doubt this would've been possible in a brand new factory at such low volume.

Nonetheless it's impressive, and I wasn't expecting positive MY gross margin this soon.
 
please stop this. he's been an anti vaxxer on c19 from the start. he's repeatedly downplayed it, he thinks the death tolls are fake, he thinks doctors and hospitals are basically listing patients as death from c19 to get more money, or putting them on vents to get more money. its absolutely insane. he's just straight off on this.
Get back in the loony bin Coronavirus circlejerk thread with this nonsense!

Feeling that a lockdown is counterproductive isn't in the same dimension as vaccine paranoia.