Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LJS22]

I agree. Though I disagreed with what Elon was saying the actual audio was not the unhinged rant the click bait headlines made it out to be.

I wish they had played the sound bite where he’s pleading the case for his suppliers and small businesses. People are pretending the government will bail every last business out. The truth is many of these businesses will go under and many will lose their jobs, unemployment benefits will be cut in half and covid will exist in the fall. This is going to be a sad truth that comes of all this. Everyone can enjoy staying inside pretending they are saving lives, but eventually the reality of what we are doing will roost.

As far as Trump considering tariffs on China I wonder how the market will view Tesla’s move into China. Last year when the tariffs started we had no factory and tariffs were bad. While tariffs still suck, it would likely be less of a blow

 

[EVNow]

To be honest, this is why I'm afraid to ever dip my toes into options.

Didn't do any option trades this time for ER. They are so expensive now-a-days, I'm only selling a contract or two, no buying.

Wondering whether its our old friend - Musk Tweet that caused the downfall. He is surely tweeting / talking like further extension to stay-at-home order is going to damage Tesla. Zach downplayed liquidity issues - I guess its just Musk's frustration showing.

 

[Nate the Great]

It will be interesting to see when they eventually use the cast aluminum section of the Model Y in Model 3, this would help with the margin number of parts. ECT....

 

[Krugerrand]

There's a 5th, but it's kind of private.

Imma get to Tesla/TSLA related...

Yeah, that can cause issues but often it’s rooted in something else. Deal with the something else and a resolution can happen.

Like anger comes from fear. Anger isn’t the issue, it’s the symptom. Fear is what needs to be addressed.

If someone believes spare the rod, spoil the child and the other person believes children should be reasoned with, given time outs — that’s a core belief and philosophy difference that causes strife from the get go and rarely can be worked out without leaving behind a lot of turmoil.

How it relates to the situation we find ourselves in here: So many people angry at Elon. They think it’s because of his words, or the time and place of the words, etc... but really it’s because there’s a core belief/philosophy that is at odds as it relates to money, politics, and/or society/family.

It bothers me not what Elon says because my society/family philosophy hinges on actions not words, it hinges on morals and ethics not words said in anger or under stress/duress. My money philosophies don’t allow me to place enough importance on money in general to care one way or another what happens to the SP based on what he says. And my political philosophy just doesn’t even get a voice beyond, ‘I don’t want to vote for any of them except if it’s to vote them off my island, in which case I’ll cast multiple votes for each.’

If people looked below the surface of their reactions and dug down a little they’d soon realize that being angry at Elon because what he said makes them think he looks stupid is not really the issue.

It’s more along the lines, if I think he looks and sounds stupid, then other people think it too, and some of those people know I’ve invested in Tesla, so now they’re going to think I’m stupid for investing in a company run by this foul-mouthed stupid person and on top of that now my investment is going to take a hit — and we’re off to the races; stupid Elon, grrrr.

That’s just one way the thought process can go. It can be, that’s a stupid thing for Elon to say, I’ve just lost a loved one to this virus, I don’t want anyone else I love to die — and away we go.

Because I think he sounds stupid, every potential customer is going to think he sounds stupid, now Tesla will go under and I’m going to lose my chance to retire early — giddy up.

Regardless of the path it takes it all started from fear based in core beliefs and philosophies under opposition.

Let’s end our session with this nugget; it’s your parents’ fault.

 

[Phobi]

Like countless other times in the past, the lesson is always the same:

Always have GODDAMN dry powder ready to buy more shares


-Long and Strong.

 

[friit]

OT
I've seen this asked at least a couple of times without answers I could find. Does anyone know if @Fact Checking has any other online presence? Karen can be followed on Twitter, but I cannot imagine such a prolific writer as FC without an outlet of some sort.

 

[willow_hiller]

OT
I've seen this asked at least a couple of times without answers I could find. Does anyone know if @Fact Checking has any other online presence? Karen can be followed on Twitter, but I cannot imagine such a prolific writer as FC without an outlet of some sort.

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) | Twitter

Edit for those who are new: Who's Fact Checking on the Tesla club forum?

 

[anthonyj]

Never been so effing confident. NEVER. Tesla is positioned to dominate. I LOVE MUSK. He's the only one with BALLS. I am LONG BALLS. ALWAYS go long balls.

 

[Remus]

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) | Twitter

To be honest FC wouldn't make such outlandish tweets as Musk did.

 

[Tim S]

OT
I've seen this asked at least a couple of times without answers I could find. Does anyone know if @Fact Checking has any other online presence? Karen can be followed on Twitter, but I cannot imagine such a prolific writer as FC without an outlet of some sort.

Running this site probably keeps him busy...
FactCheck.org

 

[MC3OZ]

The Semi might have been delayed because it will now be built at the new US GF, or because it is now using Maxwell packs.
The other reason it might be delayed is simply preserving a bit of cash by slightly slowing capex of lesser importance.
High priority projects like Model Y, are not being slowed.

With $8B in the bank they don't need a capital raise to survive, but we might still see an capital raise after battery day to fund aggressive expansion. Say they raise another $2.5B, Tesla can direct around $3B to aggressive expansion while still keeping most of their cash buffer for survival.

Things that could be funded are:-

• US GF - Cybertruck/Semi/Model Y (Battery Day)
• Energy Storage batteries - Megapack. (Battery Day)
• Buying or taking a significant stake in struggling suppliers.

Buying suppliers is to keep those suppliers in business, so Tesla has parts to make cars, buying out right, or taking a majority stake, is preferable.

They only need to help suppliers with problems, which is mostly smaller suppliers,

If they are thinking of a raise, after Battery Day is the prefect time, I'm sure some of the plans laid out in Battery Day will require significant investment... Prior to COVID-19 they probably had the cash to fund all of those investments, with COVID-19 keeping, a healthy cash balance is ideal. a business can never have too much cash in challenging times.

 

[Ameliorate]

The Semi might have been delayed because it will now be built at the new US GF, or because it is now using Maxwell packs.
The other reason it might be delayed is simply preserving a bit of cash by slightly slowing capex of lesser importance.
High priority projects like Model Y, are not being slowed.

With $8B in the bank they don't need a capital raise to survive, but we might still see an capital raise after battery day to fund aggressive expansion. Say they raise another $2.5B, Tesla can direct around $3B to aggressive expansion while still keeping most of their cash buffer for survival.

Things that could be funded are:-

• US GF - Cybertruck/Semi/Model Y (Battery Day)
• Energy Storage batteries - Megapack. (Battery Day)
• Buying or taking a significant stake in struggling suppliers.

Buying suppliers is to keep those suppliers in business, so Tesla has parts to make cars, buying out right, or taking a majority stake, is preferable.

They only need to help suppliers with problems, which is mostly smaller suppliers,

If they are thinking of a raise, after Battery Day is the prefect time, I'm sure some of the plans laid out in Battery Day will require significant investment... Prior to COVID-19 they probably had the cash to fund all of those investments, with COVID-19 keeping, a healthy cash balance is ideal. a business can never have too much cash in challenging times.

I didn't see this posted earlier, definitely may have missed it as it's old news (April 22, 2020) but :
U.S. Patent Office Rules In Favor Of Nikola In Lawsuit Against Tesla Semi - Tesla Motors Club
maybe also relevant?

 

[Maitri982]

Yes...and his “science" said no new infections at end of April. So far off it's ridiculous. I knew he could be stupid sometimes but this whole response from him on this virus has significantly lowered my opinion of him as a person.

Sold a bunch today, but still own a bunch. They literally cannot make cars now in their biggest plant. The supply chain will be disrupted for some time. 30 Million are unemployed. That's three big elephants in the room you cannot ignore.

Longer term they should be fine unless knucklehead does something assinine, but for next 6 months all bets are off and caution is best approach. Likely much better entry points coming IMO.

I don't think he will be.

Sure Elon is science based, but the problem is, the science hasn't caught up with this virus yet.

He's commenting on things absolutely that are not yet absolutely know-able.

And calling people "facists" who are just trying to put us in a spot where it really doesn't go totally out of control.

I mean, sorry, but his black and white position is a "nuts" point of view to have right now. It is one that is not based on science. Because the science is not black and white.

Because no one really knows anything yet so static absolute positions are all stupid.

And Elon is firmly in stupid land right now.

And the stock is reacting to it.

He needs to stop shouting at clouds and focus on navigating TSLA through the reality of what is going on.

TSLA is in a way better position that most, so get to capitalizing on that.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Picked up 40 shares after hours. Wish I could get more orders to hit. Could we go down further? Yes. But $765 is 15.3% of $5000/share. $650 is 13%. The point being that any short term downside pales so much in comparison to the inevitable upside. The business is too good. I’m uninterested in timing anything. I just want more shares.

 

[MC3OZ]

I didn't see this posted earlier, definitely may have missed it as it's old news (April 22, 2020) but :
U.S. Patent Office Rules In Favor Of Nikola In Lawsuit Against Tesla Semi - Tesla Motors Club
maybe also relevant?

Almost no one thinks Nikola is going to win the suit, similar designs have been built in the past..

Tesla was just trying for a quick and simple kill, it now now going to take longer to be resolved.

I'm not sure if any decision by the court prevents Tesla building.

But perhaps, it is another reason to delay just in case the court case requires them to make design changes, I think that is most unlikely

Tesla Semi design lawsuit moves forward, Nikola Motors keeps looking weaker - Electrek

Fred isn't always right, but he seems right about this..

The three specific design aspects that they claim Tesla stole are a mid-entry door, wrap windshield, and the shape of the body, which have been around for decades – way before Nikola Motors existed:

 

[generalenthu]

This bodes well for the future..

 

[RobStark]

Great numbers.

Bad Elon.

Elon talking about public policy on a pandemic is like
Fauci talking about landing rockets on barges.

He may have some points, but overall, he’s just not quite on the actual reality and facts of things.

I’ll put in super harsh terms. If Elon’s mom just went through what my friend’s Dad just went through, hooked up to a tube, dying with his family stuck on the other side of a glass wall, he’d have a way different outlook.

Other than that, great numbers. Keep it up Elon. You are doing great work. Just don’t get ahead of yourself on things you just don’t quite know yet.

Just keep checking yourself: “Am I Fauci talking rockets?”

But you yourself are omniscient and can pass judgement on Elon and Fauci?

 

[XHabjab]

This is probably so eminently clear to the veterans on this board that people don't bother discussing it, but I did just have a personal revelation about the biggest hole in the TSLAQ theory: their vocalness.

I imagine in the minds of a lot of TSLAQ, they see themselves as leading characters in "The Big Short." But you know what those protagonists didn't do? They didn't shout their discoveries to the rooftops; they kept it quiet among themselves and their personal connections.
...

The TSLAQ characters can not possibly believe the nonsense that they project. The way that the stories are slanted, the data cherry picked and misrepresented... All of their "science" is clearly manipulated and intentionally distorted. There is no way that they could believe their message. Their main goal is clearly to misrepresent, lie and generate FUD.

In my mind, there is a lot of room for speculation why each TSLAQ individual generates FUD but there is no doubt to me that every single one of them know what they are doing is a big lie.

 

[Krugerrand]

Wondering whether its our old friend - Musk Tweet that caused the downfall. He is surely tweeting / talking like further extension to stay-at-home order is going to damage Tesla. Zach downplayed liquidity issues - I guess its just Musk's frustration showing.

It’s the finance guy’s job to ‘balance the checkbook’ and keep them afloat. He’s got +$8 billion to play with with reduced wages and other expenses etc...

It’s the other guy’s job to fight on behalf of and for his employees and company.

They got this.

 

[XHabjab]

The standard is so low right now, are you sure I’d do worse?

I'm not sure how to answer that but I will say that you are one of the 20 or so people that I know with a Black Belt in email.

[Edit: Add smiley]