Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

I don't thin this was posted, but Sean Mitchell posted about his theories in regards to the new batteries.

Gali did the same, but I haven't watched his yet to see if they're different.

 

[kanweg]

That bible verse led me to science...

There is only one reality and in what reality is, we don’t have any choice. Scientists are people who study reality, trying to figure out what it is. If they figure out they were wrong in the past, they change their mind. I think that is an excellent mindset. It beats sticking to opinions based on what has been handed over culturally. The fact that kids all over the world adopt the religion of their parents irrespective of the religion shows to me that the veracity of the religion is not an important factor in the process of adopting the religion.

I want to put reality first when it comes to investing too. That means that I support masks and social distancing and dread those opposed because of religious or political views. Nor do I like echo chambers (I have been lurking here quite a while, and mostly I like it here).

I’ve invested a couple of times in the past. With Tesla I started in October last year, as support for their goal. (I loved seeing more and more Tesla’s on the road. Only after that I started learning more about the company and read the biography. I then realized, Elon doesn’t stop. That gave me confidence to invest more. I learned about hodl. That was very hard however, and on one day I sold all shares except one, for fear of losing the money I had invested so far and hoping to buy them back at a little cheaper. That day was 18 March....

I started buying shares back (it will be an important part of a modest pension). Needless to say I have less shares than I had.

I already learned a lot here. Thanks for that.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

I'll take the over on these numbers. Especially 2021 should be much higher than 790k.
...

Tesla's production capacity end of 2022:
Fremont: 580k
Shanghai 3+Y: 500k+
Berlin: 250k+, hard to predict exactly at this point.
Texas: Hard to predict, but should be at least 100-200k Cyber, and perhaps Y production too.
Nevada: There should be semi production, but hard to say how many. Maybe 50k/year?
Total: 2M-ish?

I would expect demand for Semi in China and Europe to be at least as high as in the US. Would have thought Tesla would aim to manufacture Semi in Shanghai and Berlin ASAP to avoid shipping costs and tariffs.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Quite a few pre-cast concrete beams have been shipped to GigaBerlin.

Progress at GB has appeared relatively slow (IMO) compared to GigaShanghai, however hopefully the arrival of pre-cast material hints that factory construction may accelerate if more of the building is being manufactured offsite and only needs to be slotted together onsite.

It also answers the question as to why larger cranes are being used at GB when they weren't used at GS - They need to lift heavier sections.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Not that any more evidence is required around Nikola hydrogen tech being a dead end for trucking, but the wonderfully named Chicken Genius Singapore has a nice video breaking down the total costs of a Nikola truck v Tesla semi. His assumptions are well defined and he gives generous assumptions Nikola's truck and Tesla is still the clear winner.

It's worth the 10 minutes if Trevor has been bamboozling you.

 

[Intl Professor]

Ring, ring! "Hey human, this is your cat. I'm inside the dog and just found a cell phone. Get me the heck out of here, and quick!"

You must be of Ukrainian extraction.

 

[AlMc]

To counter some of the 'fit and finish' questions about the Y:

Took delivery on my red/white interior LR Y (non performance) yesterday. It was in pristine condition in terms of fit and finish. Delivery was delayed because they had so many deliveries going on that they got 'backed up'. Staff could not have been nicer while my family waited.

I thought I might be disappointed (settling!) for a non performance Y having come out of two previous Ss...a '13 85P+ and '14 P85D. I was not, The 'feel' was that it is much quicker 0-60 than advertised. It was quiet/had a solid feel/cornered well on the 19" tire/wheel set.

IMO, the Y will outsell all other current Tesla vehicles combined. Any 'new to Tesla' potential buyers when shopping for a small SUV (more on that in a minute) or CUV will buy this hands down. (OK, I am a little prejudice)

Aside: as to a 'small' SUV....the Tesla rubber mats from my S actually fit all footwells and even the trunk of the Y fairly well. I will replace them with a 'made for model Y set when they become available but these will suffice nicely till then.

 

[FrankSG]

Apparently Semis are being used to deliver vehicles in the bay area:

Tesla Semis are being used to deliver cars in the Bay Area! - Reddit r/teslamotors

A really good sign that Tesla is moving ahead with the Semi. I'd guess these are early release candidates like we saw pop up from the MY around October/November last year. Wouldn't be surprised at all if the semi starts to be produced in more serious volumes later this year.

I expect an update on the status of the Semi in the Q2 ER.

 

[MartinAustin]

To counter some of the 'fit and finish' questions about the Y:

Took delivery on my red/white interior LR Y (non performance) yesterday. It was in pristine condition in terms of fit and finish. Delivery was delayed because they had so many deliveries going on that they got 'backed up'. Staff could not have been nicer while my family waited.

I thought I might be disappointed (settling!) for a non performance Y having come out of two previous Ss...a '13 85P+ and '14 P85D. I was not, The 'feel' was that it is much quicker 0-60 than advertised. It was quiet/had a solid feel/cornered well on the 19" tire/wheel set.

IMO, the Y will outsell all other current Tesla vehicles combined. Any 'new to Tesla' potential buyers when shopping for a small SUV (more on that in a minute) or CUV will buy this hands down. (OK, I am a little prejudice)

Aside: as to a 'small' SUV....the Tesla rubber mats from my S actually fit all footwells and even the trunk of the Y fairly well. I will replace them with a 'made for model Y set when they become available but these will suffice nicely till then.

The original Model Y event appears to show a base configuration that will start at $39,000 in the USA. I think that is going to cause orders to explode when it comes out. Currently the base price of Model Y is $53,000 and the optics of that number don't look good for many people.

Also (weekend off topic) I hope banks get clued in about BEVs and loans. As a bank, when you OK a loan application for a gasoline car of, say, $500/month, you are surely going to assume one or two hundred $/month for gasoline and other running costs. Those additional expenditures eat into the applicants's ability to pay the loan every month. However, a $500/month loan application for a BEV - especially a Tesla (not as sure about the other brands) - should come with the knowledge that there is less additional spending, even down to $50/month for the electricity. This will raise the applicant's ability to repay the loan. Or to put it another way, the applicant should in theory be able to qualify for a $600/month payment and still be more easily able to pay that off than a $500/month gasoline car loan! As long as banks know this, it might be easier for more people to afford a $39,000 vehicle that they ordinarily would be ruling out, and buying a $34,000 ICE vehicle instead, only to find they have to find extra money for gasoline.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Important battery article about a company that recently may have been acquired by Tesla. Info in this article comes from the time before SilLion went 'dark'. Here are some important points:

• The team at SiILion is beginning to rewrite the rulebook for lithium-ion battery design
• Not only do the cathode and anode materials need to be next-generation, the entire battery also needs revamping
• They are shifting their focus to auxiliary battery materials, building a support system for the modern silicon and nickel-rich electrodes using unique electrolyte compositions and electrode binders*, while maintaining the advantage of decades of manufacturing expertise by premising their designs on compatibility with existing lithium-ion battery manufacturing methods
• As Dr Molina Piper explains, ‘enabling the next-generation electrode materials will mean enabling a next-generation lithium-ion system design’.
• Moreover, the strategy for attaining next-generation performance must be commercially viable.
• SiILion’s cell technology, through utilisation of lower cost materials and manufacturing compatibility, will be 30% less costly ($/kWh) than state-of-the-art lithium-ion cells.
• By approaching the problem from the view of the battery cell system, SiILion achieves its breakthrough energy density and performance.

*electrode binders = is this a veiled ref to Maxwell DBE manufacturing process?

I think the pieces are all on the table now, but can we put this puzzle together before Bty Day?

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Trading thoughts:

1. There is too much credit given to technical analysis using tools like Bollinger bands. I don't buy the BS.

Well you certainly decreased the level of discussion with this nugget. Do you have any actual evidence, or is "B.S." your standard method of analysis?

No one here is offering advice. We discuss possible approaches. You, alternately, have provided your personal opinion, which remains baseless since you've chosen an emotional appeal to support your claim.

"Who hurt you? Will you go broke?" See? Not very helpful, is it. But it is a form of FUD.

TL;dr Show your evidence, or you're more likely displaying motivated reasoning.

 

[elasalle]

...

Apparently Semis are being used to deliver vehicles in the bay area:

Tesla Semis are being used to deliver cars in the Bay Area! - Reddit r/teslamotors

A really good sign that Tesla is moving ahead with the Semi. I'd guess these are early release candidates like we saw pop up from the MY around October/November last year. Wouldn't be surprised at all if the semi starts to be produced in more serious volumes later this year.

I expect an update on the status of the Semi in the Q2 ER.

Not Sure why they bring out the Semi as part of "end of Q antics" (do they run out of regular delivery trucks at end of Q?). I thought Tesla bought a Trucking company last year?
They should put it to use b/w a know route (say Fremont/Reno) for all times.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Gali did the same, but I haven't watched his yet to see if they're different.

As usual, Gali bounces around like a pea in a whistle. First he says he doesn't think that "Roadrunner" is a beta product. After talking to himself for a while, he concludes that "Roadrunner" isn't the real "Roadrunner", its just a beta, and that Texas will get the real "Roadrunner".

Meanwhile, he conveniently ignores the existing bty operation at Fremont Kato Road (called "Tera") while this new project uses a new name.

Yet somehow, when the "real" bty project gets built, it will reuse the name "Roadrunner". Possible he sat out in the sun too long; the mind wanders...

Gali being gali. Good for lite entertainment, but not investment grade information.

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

Also (weekend off topic) I hope banks get clued in about BEVs and loans. As a bank, when you OK a loan application for a gasoline car of, say, $500/month, you are surely going to assume one or two hundred $/month for gasoline and other running costs. Those additional expenditures eat into the applicants's ability to pay the loan every month. However, a $500/month loan application for a BEV - especially a Tesla (not as sure about the other brands) - should come with the knowledge that there is less additional spending, even down to $50/month for the electricity. This will raise the applicant's ability to repay the loan. Or to put it another way, the applicant should in theory be able to qualify for a $600/month payment and still be more easily able to pay that off than a $500/month gasoline car loan! As long as banks know this, it might be easier for more people to afford a $39,000 vehicle that they ordinarily would be ruling out, and buying a $34,000 ICE vehicle instead, only to find they have to find extra money for gasoline.

That’s a really good, logical viewpoint and therefore has to be way too sophisticated for your average loans department.

I think we should all make a few phone calls to our favorite banking establishments and test out the theory.

 

[Krugerrand]

...


Not Sure why they bring out the Semi as part of "end of Q antics" (do they run out of regular delivery trucks at end of Q?). I thought Tesla bought a Trucking company last year?
They should put it to use b/w a know route (say Fremont/Reno) for all times.

You think it’s antics to use every available source of transport logistics to make the company successful?

They absolutely have used the semi between Fremont and Reno hauling supplies and such. That was established a long time ago and reported on.

They’ve also taken those semis all over the country to show to trucking companies and other businesses to get feedback and market the viability of them in terms of, at
minimum, cost savings.

I don’t understand how a long time regular such as yourself doesn’t know that. The prototypes have been testing and working and getting the crap beat out of them for a long time and they have been used for car deliveries in the past.

 

[MartinAustin]

I think the pieces are all on the table now, but can we put this puzzle together before Bty Day?

I think Tesla has so much overlapping technology improvements from all these corporate acquisitions and research groups, that the notion that Tesla has no "moat" or "differentiating technology over others" will be annihilated following battery day. Battery Day will show the industry how a true leader innovates in its field. Everyone else's so-called "innovation" (Ultium, looking at you) will be compared with this from now on.

Hate to discuss it due to Osborning factors, but I'm also convinced an all-new Model S will be debuted on or around the same time. Elon said years ago that seven years is about the amount of time a car should see between refreshes, and of course we're after that on Model S. The door interiors, with their lack of storage bins, are still the same part since 2012! 3+Y have storage in the doors. And cabin cameras. Cybertruck already showed us the new "large format interior dash" with one landscape display. I'm sure supporting two displays in S+X is a tax on the software department. Plus, plaid powertrain going into production in "summer," revised rear-facing seats and you may as well have a different exterior. This will be Tesla's first vehicle refresh ever to go into production... can't wait! (No refresh for Model X yet IMO but happy to be wrong)

Discussion of the 2020 Fremont downtime for switching to new vehicle styles and powertrains is something I haven't seen much of. Might be a small negative factor in total yearly production. (The Y+3 juggernaut will keep rolling of course) The Raven switchover was quite an impact to production in Q1 2019, single-shift and all that. Am I wrong?

 

[CorneliusXX]

...


Not Sure why they bring out the Semi as part of "end of Q antics" (do they run out of regular delivery trucks at end of Q?). I thought Tesla bought a Trucking company last year?
They should put it to use b/w a know route (say Fremont/Reno) for all times.

Plenty of potential reasons in no particular order:

• Marketing - Tesla uses the product they're going to sell for their own transportation needs
• On the job testing - Looking for any real world niggles that haven't been picked up in regular tests
• Logistics issues around EoQ as per Elon's tweet
• Cost saving on transport
• reducing emissions

 

[DrL90]

Important battery article about a company that recently may have been acquired by Tesla. Info in this article comes from the time before SilLion went 'dark'. Here are some important points:

• The team at SiILion is beginning to rewrite the rulebook for lithium-ion battery design
• Not only do the cathode and anode materials need to be next-generation, the entire battery also needs revamping
• They are shifting their focus to auxiliary battery materials, building a support system for the modern silicon and nickel-rich electrodes using unique electrolyte compositions and electrode binders*, while maintaining the advantage of decades of manufacturing expertise by premising their designs on compatibility with existing lithium-ion battery manufacturing methods
• As Dr Molina Piper explains, ‘enabling the next-generation electrode materials will mean enabling a next-generation lithium-ion system design’.
• Moreover, the strategy for attaining next-generation performance must be commercially viable.
• SiILion’s cell technology, through utilisation of lower cost materials and manufacturing compatibility, will be 30% less costly ($/kWh) than state-of-the-art lithium-ion cells.
• By approaching the problem from the view of the battery cell system, SiILion achieves its breakthrough energy density and performance.

*electrode binders = is this a veiled ref to Maxwell DBE manufacturing process?

I think the pieces are all on the table now, but can we put this puzzle together before Bty Day?

Cheers!

"Along the way to enabling vehicle electrification, SiILion is targeting the application of its technology in unmanned vehicles, specialty applications, and consumer electronics, with its current generation of prototypes designed to meet the requirements of these markets."

If Tesla acquired SilLion would they be designing prototypes for anything other then what Tesla produces?

"SiILion’s first generation prototype technology is under evaluation or requested for evaluation by numerous lithium-ion manufacturers and end-users active in its target markets"

I'm not the best reader but this makes me skeptical they're locked in with Tesla

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think Tesla has so much overlapping technology improvements from all these corporate acquisitions and research groups, that the notion that Tesla has no "moat" or "differentiating technology over others" will be annihilated following battery day. Battery Day will show the industry how a true leader innovates in its field. Everyone else's so-called "innovation" (Ultium, looking at you) will be compared with this from now on.

Agreed. I think its gonna be the whole package: cost, energy density, manufacturing volume, service life increase, charge rate and performance. Can't wait.

Hate to discuss it due to Osborning factors, but I'm also convinced an all-new Model S will be debuted on or around the same time. Elon said years ago that seven years is about the amount of time a car should see between refreshes, and of course we're after that on Model S. The door interiors, with their lack of storage bins, are still the same part since 2012! 3+Y have storage in the doors. And cabin cameras. Cybertruck already showed us the new "large format interior dash" with one landscape display. I'm sure supporting two displays in S+X is a tax on the software department. Plus, plaid powertrain going into production in "summer," revised rear-facing seats and you may as well have a different exterior. This will be Tesla's first vehicle refresh ever to go into production... can't wait! (No refresh for Model X yet IMO but happy to be wrong)

Gonna disagree with the Model S body refresh. Stamping dies aren't cheap, and their is no obvious need/benefit to change simply to chase fashion. Ask yourself how much VW changed the Beetle between 1949 and 1974 and you'll have your answer.

Discussion of the 2020 Fremont downtime for switching to new vehicle styles and powertrains is something I haven't seen much of. Might be a small negative factor in total yearly production. (The Y+3 juggernaut will keep rolling of course) The Raven switchover was quite an impact to production in Q1 2019, single-shift and all that. Am I wrong?

Avoiding production downtime is another arguement to NOT do frivolous body style changes. Tesla has enough on its plate with the new bty pack and powertrain (which I do expect will include an upgraded HVAC system ala the Model Y heatpump/octavalve.

Oh, and fashionable cupholders too.

Cheers!

 

[lafrisbee]

Okay, I'm game:

1. Neil Young's LincVolt:
   
   
   
   
   
   Reason: 6,000 lbs and 100 MPGe.... You know, for weekend crusin'.
   .
2. Westphalia Weekender:
   
   
   
   
   
   Reason: Minivan w.small fridge + folding table/bed. You know, for weekend campin'...
   .
3. Electric Hot Hatch
   
   
   
   
   .
   Reason: a small EV w/o compromises: a Tesla Model 2 for the rest of the week...

Thanks for the trip down Future Ave... it's gonna be fun!

Cheers!

THANKS! for playing. Others should lighten up and share some of their viewpoints as to where they would take Tesla future vehicle design...
Concerning the Lincvolt, I love the 60-ish convertible lincolns with suicide doors and minimal lines.
The Westphalia... Perhaps you read my retelling of my great uncle visiting our family in the 1960's, once a year, as he toured the USA in an endless loop..with ever changing "Great Aunts." As a 7 yr old, sitting at the table while the car was driven through the neighborhood felt like a Disney ride.
And YES, 100%, Electric hatchback as the Model 2. I know Tesla has opened up to the public for their design ideas for the Model 2. I would gladly vote for a hatchback that just looked like a hatchback because it is going to be the "economy" car...and it shouldn't stand out and be identified as the weird looking car that is cheap. And I had a Dodge Colt from 1988 to 1999... It was a jack of all trades, enough said.