Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Skryll]

Has Tesla Hid A Model S Battery Issue Since 2012 That Could Cause Fires? clickbait title on an article about a 2020 Lynette Lopez article reminding me of the good old 2016...

I guess the shorts are really scared.

 

[Mike Smith]

 

[tinm]

Has Tesla Hid A Model S Battery Issue Since 2012 That Could Cause Fires? clickbait title on an article about a 2020 Lynette Lopez article reminding me of the good old 2016...

I guess the shorts are really scared.

Wait’ll they all find out about the transmission problems in the first batch of Roadsters back in 2008! Get ready for the stock to plummet next week!

 

[MC3OZ]

Wait’ll they all find out about the transmission problems in the first batch of Roadsters back in 2008! Get ready for the stock to plummet next week!

In 2000 Teslas were vapourware with Y2K issues...

 

[JusRelax]

In 2000 Tesla's were vapourware with Y2K issues...

This is why you never see any teslas that were manufactured before year 2000... they all completely stopped working at the turn of the millennium and were scrapped.

 

[Mo City]

I'll take the over on these numbers. Especially 2021 should be much higher than 790k.

Actually, out of these 6 numbers, I'm least confident about Tesla hitting the 527k in 2020. I think 2021-2023 are almost certainly going to be higher, and 2024 and 2025 are a bit hard to predict at this point.

Tesla's production capacity today:
Fremont S+X: 80k (90k, but demand might not be there, so let's say 80k)
Fremont 3+Y: 400k
Shanghai 3: 200k
Total: 680k

Tesla's production capacity end of 2020:
Fremont S+X: 80k
Fremont 3+Y: 500k
Shanghai 3: 250k
Total: 830k

Tesla's production capacity end of 2021:
Fremont: 580k
Shanghai 3: 250k
Shanghai Y: 250k at least, quite possibly more.
Berlin: Just starting to ramp
Texas: Cybertruck should be starting?
Nevada: Semi?
Total: 1,080k+

Tesla's production capacity end of 2022:
Fremont: 580k
Shanghai 3+Y: 500k+
Berlin: 250k+, hard to predict exactly at this point.
Texas: Hard to predict, but should be at least 100-200k Cyber, and perhaps Y production too.
Nevada: There should be semi production, but hard to say how many. Maybe 50k/year?
Total: 2M-ish?

There's not enough visibility beyond the next 2-3 years to make any accurate guesses, but I'll be surprised if Tesla's production capacity and deliveries don't grow in excess of 50% for the next couple of years.

Question about your 2021 numbers:
Tesla's production capacity end of 2021:
Fremont: 580k
Shanghai 3: 250k
Shanghai Y: 250k at least, quite possibly more.
Berlin: Just starting to ramp
Texas: Cybertruck should be starting?
Nevada: Semi?
Total: 1,080k+

Is it not likely Giga Berlin begins production on or around July 1, 2021 (>12 months from now) and contributes 50-100k or more for the year?

My thinking is 2021 production exceeds 1 million barring another global economic downturn because of MIC Model Y and Giga Berlin.

 

[AZRI11]

This is why you never see any teslas that were manufactured before year 2000... they all completely stopped working at the turn of the millennium and were scrapped.

 

[RobStark]

Weekend Semi O.T.

BTW in 2019 Canada doesn't make the list. Canada manufactures and consumers ~2M vehicles per year.

 

[FrankSG]

Question about your 2021 numbers:
Tesla's production capacity end of 2021:
Fremont: 580k
Shanghai 3: 250k
Shanghai Y: 250k at least, quite possibly more.
Berlin: Just starting to ramp
Texas: Cybertruck should be starting?
Nevada: Semi?
Total: 1,080k+

Is it not likely Giga Berlin begins production on or around July 1, 2021 (>12 months from now) and contributes 50-100k or more for the year?

My thinking is 2021 production exceeds 1 million barring another global economic downturn because of MIC Model Y and Giga Berlin.

This is certainly possible. However, although I'm confident predicting Shanghai Phase 2 will go up just as fast as Phase 1 did, because it's built by the same people, I'm not as confident yet in predicting Berlin will be built and ramped at the same speed.

But it's certainly possible that by the end of 2021, Berlin will be where Shanghai Phase 1 is now, and will be at a yearly production capacity of 200k and still ramping.

 

[Jack6591]

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain...

Tesla Delivery Estimates Are Rising. It Could Be Bad for the Stock.

It still astonishes me, the calories they burn setting up FUD...

 

[EVortex]

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain...

Tesla Delivery Estimates Are Rising. It Could Be Bad for the Stock.

It still astonishes me, the calories they burn setting up FUD...

Also no mention of profitability or qualifying for inclusion in S&P 500.

 

[Todd Burch]

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain...

Tesla Delivery Estimates Are Rising. It Could Be Bad for the Stock.

It still astonishes me, the calories they burn setting up FUD...

Tesla’s delivering more cars than you think, so sell?

That’s the dumbest thing I’ve read in the last 2 minutes!

(Just came from Facebook reading a comment that COVID is a lefty media conspiracy, so...)

Someone explain why the birthplace of the computer, electricity, flight, and so much more is also home to some of the biggest morons on the planet?!?

 

[oldTAVguy]

Good cost comparison on Nikola and Tesla....

 

[oldTAVguy]

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain...

Tesla Delivery Estimates Are Rising. It Could Be Bad for the Stock.

It still astonishes me, the calories they burn setting up FUD...

The analyst quoted is:

Joseph Spak
RBC Capital
Wall Street Analyst
Ranked #6,315 out of 6,720 Analysts on TipRanks (#13,459 out of 14,133 overall experts) (just a very small tip of one star)

Make your own judgement on the quality of his work, and the article.

 

[StealthP3D]

Also no mention of profitability or qualifying for inclusion in S&P 500.

No, those things would be good news which also could be bad for the stock. Of course bad news is simply bad for the stock.

In other words, you should sell. /s

 

[Unpilot]

I don’t need you helping @Unpilot and bringing technicals to his attention; not that he would understand anyway. So, if you could please refrain from even so much as acknowledging his existence, I’ll make sure @mongo ‘s pistol isn’t loaded.

Ok I just enrolled in @Artful Dodger class on technical's......and a class on cat baiting.

 

[Unpilot]

It's the weekend....
The array of dishes has an effective area (in terms of resolution/ beam width) equivalent to a single dish that covers the same area .Energy collection/ senstivity is limited to the amount of physical antenna area.

The Starlink antenna is really an array of antennas to provide electronic beam steering/ forming which is not possible with a fixed physical antenna. Small antennas have a larger beam width, so an array of those allows more ability for electronic steering.

Right......

 

[Unpilot]

That bible verse led me to science...

Ok weekednd OT. The bible is childlike to many people....myself included.
It seems any story told often enough becomes ...."truth?

 

[lafrisbee]

Ok weekednd OT. The bible is childlike to many people....myself included.
It seems any story told often enough becomes ...."truth?

Say that again?

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Fri, Jun 26, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "Macros head South taking TSLA to Mid-BB"

Traded: $8,089,718,741.82 ($8.09 B)
Volume: 8,380,684
VWAP: $965.28

Closing SP / VWAP: 99.49%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = 178.008B / 173.363B = 102.68%​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 57.1% (53rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 48.7% (49th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.11% of Short Volume (50th Percentile rank)​

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!