Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

If you sell covered calls that are in the money when you sell them, it restarts the long term gains clock on the underlying shares. If you actually have long-term stock this is a disaster. (In the US, taxable account, IANATL, not advice.) You can sell OTM calls though.

Are you sure on that? (I know nothing other than these results)
What Are The Tax Implications of Covered Calls? - Fidelity

A qualified covered call is a covered call with more than 30 days to expiration at the time it is written and a strike price that is not "deep in the money." The definition of "deep in the money" varies by the stock price and by the time to expiration of the sold call.

According to Taxes and Investing (page 23), "Writing an at-the-money or an out-of-the-money qualified covered call allows the holding period of the underlying stock to continue. However, an in-the-money qualified covered call suspends the holding period of the stock during the time of the option’s existence.

You might be thinking of what happens if they are exercised:
How Does a Covered Call Strategy Increase Your Taxes?

You may hold stock that you have owned for more than one year, have significant gains in the stock and you want to sell calls against the shares. If you sold the shares outright, the gains would be taxed at the lower, long-term capital gains rate. If you sell deep in-the-money calls against your shares, you negate the long-term holding period for capital gains. Deep in-the-money calls most likely will be exercised, calling your stock away and leaving you with a big tax bill. To avoid this situation, only sell out-of-the-money calls against your longer-term stock holding.

Other technicalities related to dividends.
The tax impact of selling calls - InvestmentNews

 

[MP3Mike]

Is the China Cybertruck announcement a stock price mover on Monday?

Maybe a little, but I think the announcement about LG increasing battery cell production capacity for Tesla would have more of an impact.

 

[StealthP3D]

Is the market for pickup trucks as robust in China? Anecdotally at least, I would think not. Why wouldn't production start in the country that buys the most trucks?

Cybertruck production will start in the US. but don't under-estimate the number of Cybertrucks sold in China. The all-electric Cybertruck will greatly expand the sales of pick-ups in China. The potential market is huge and much of the country is rural with improving economics.

 

[Captkerosene]

Imagine, getting deliveries from Tesla Eats. And if was all somehow handled with a full self driving car, you wouldn't have to pay a tip!

(Don't rightly know how that could be done, but wonders never cease in the new world)

You send your own car to pick up food instead of having it delivered. Car parks itself in your own garage and texts you that dinner is ready.

 

[wipster]

You send your own car to pick up food instead of having it delivered. Car parks itself in your own garage and texts you that dinner is ready.

Wow!!! Had not thought of that! That changes everything!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anything's possible. They could also announce S&P inclusion between now and earnings based on nothing more than P&D numbers, likely profitability, and the size and importance of Tesla to the market.

The cries of 'FOUL' and 'Special treatment' by the shortzes from that 'Premature action' would be louder than even the bird flu of 1929...

Cheers!

 

[MC3OZ]

As it is the weekend, I'll share my overall thoughts on Tesla.
I'll be retired in 5-7 years time, by that time, Tesla might be paying dividends, which may help partially fund my retirement.
I see the next 5-7 years as a time of rapid growth based around "peak opportunity"
.
If you have seen those graphs of declining ICE demand and rising BEV demand/supply, the graphs always show BEV supply lagging demand "the valley of unsatisfied EV demand", that is "peak opportunity".
In simple terms most when buyers want a BEV, but supply is lagging demand, due in part to cell supplies lagging demand, which is due to lagging investments in mining, chemical processing, and battery factories..

On Battery Day we will see Tesla focused on growing cells/packs supplies to allow them to ramp vehicle production quickly to tap "peak opportunity"..

While all Tesla products are great and all are important, "peak opportunity' at this time is scaling Model 3 and Model Y production quickly in US, China and Europe, in simple terms getting to scale...

Products + Opportunity + Scale + Efficiency = Model 3/Y US, China and Europe = Cash flow + Margin

New/Better/Cheaper Products = Cash + R&D + Innovation + Efficiency = Diversity + Growing Market Share..

Growing Market share = Improved Tesla ecosystem, Supercharging, Service, FSD,

Taking opportunities when they are there is beneficial in terms of making money and satisfying the mission.
It is "peak opportunity' for making money, but also "peak opportunity" for the mission...

Tesla is a tech company, Tesla is a car company, Tesla is an energy company, Tesla is greater than the sum of these parts and may diversify to many more areas... there are opportunities everywhere...

A tech company can be disrupted by a better tech company, s car company can be disrupted, a well run tech+car+energy+whatever company is very hard to disrupt, especially if it is efficient and innovative..

In fact efficient, innovative companies, that can scale quickly and generate the cash to fund additional rapid expansion, tend to disrupt a lot of other companies, and may eventually expand into areas many didn't see coming.

That is how I see the next 5-7, making money is important I think the mission is even more important, and Tesla can do both. For multiple reasons, they are extremely well placed to take full advantage of "peak opportunity".

 

[Quesder]

Well, today I got withdrawal symptoms.
I tried watching the Frankfurt exchange but it just wasn't enough.
Itl be a long weekend.

Frankfurt Tl0 turned out drop 20 euro. does this bother you? Is there any bad news?

 

[Fobble]

IMO, they will build the first 'few' Cybertrucks in USA, probably Cali, so that they can be tested near the home base. However, significant production will occur first in China, then US factory in TX or OK (either of which will be slower to build than China or Germany).

Why do we think CT will be built in China? Unless China is a big market for large pickup trucks (which I am not aware of), it does not make sense to build there and then import back to the USA.

 

[StealthP3D]

This is one of the reasons I follow Gary.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1279095456753225729

He has several other posts popping Trevor Milton's bubble.

I think NKLA is gonna crash next week.

As it turns out, popping Trevor Milton's bubble isn't very difficult.

NKLA might crash next week. But I wouldn't count on it. It's already defied the odds and any sane person's sensibilities to be where it's at now. I think real crashing might not happen until significant founder/insider selling is allowed to happen (but I'll admit I'm unclear on that timeline). I also think it will hover in at least the $20's if not the $30's far longer than any sane person thinks it should be there.

 

[StealthP3D]

Why do we think CT will be built in China? Unless China is a big market for large pickup trucks (which I am not aware of), it does not make sense to build there and then import back to the USA.

Cybertrucks will be built in China to meet huge Chinese demand. They will not export them out of Asia to the rest of the world!

 

[Navin]

Frankfurt Tl0 turned out drop 20 euro. does this bother you? Is there any bad news?

just hope your consulting agreement doesn't lapse..A management fee on invested capital only goes so far - typically - fund managers pay consultants out of their promote... hard to justify with whats going on with TSLA right now.. All the best to you

 

[goinfraftw]

So, Q - as I was driving earlier today, I couldn't help but notice the ICE cars on the highway and how much so many have such emotional connections to their cars that, in some cases, have lasted generations. Also, just how much those cars pollute and how much climate change matters now and going forward. I think we're starting to have major changes in how people are listening to about this climate change issue for the first time in decades. With that said, to take so many cars off of the road in such a short amount of time (5-10 years rather than multiple decades) and replace them, largely, with a monopoly of Tesla passenger and logistics vehicles...

...anyone get the sense that a real amount of turmoil is about to occur and/or is already occurring?

This level of stock-price swings is a lot to take in and I'm trying to make sense of it of the relevance and amplitudinal emotional effect its having worldwide.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Just tell us when to sell and when to buy back in

Zero incentive to do so especially with the degree of cynicism prevalent
I always do my own trading with quite satisfactory results
At the end of the day it’s the account bottom line that counts and everything else is conversation
And I feel absolutely no reason to provide any kind of detailed analysis because I am super busy and I don’t need to justify or present logic for my trading decisions all I care about is whether it works for me or no
I post here and on Twitter purely for amusement and don’t take my opinions seriously

 

[HG Wells]

Well, today I got withdrawal symptoms.
I tried watching the Frankfurt exchange but it just wasn't enough.
Itl be a long weekend.

Frankfurt Tl0 turned out drop 20 euro. does this bother you? Is there any bad news?

Could mean there will be a sale going on monday morning.
Limited time. First come first served.

 

[tinm]

OT

If you recall, a few weeks ago I posted in here about how I tried to get a friend to buy a Tesla ever since my first S in 2013. And how he finally warmed to the 3 in 2019 and then I kept persisting until just recently he not only decided to go for it, but spend more, on a Y!

Well today was delivery day. He told me the Y they gave him had such bad fit-and-finish quality he refused to accept it.

This is mortifying. Tesla, how many brand-new customers are going to be put through this negative experience before you fix the quality control problems at Fremont?

They told him they’d have another Y for him tomorrow. I sure hope it’s acceptable.

 

[Fred42]

IMO, they will build the first 'few' Cybertrucks in USA, probably Cali, so that they can be tested near the home base. However, significant production will occur first in China, then US factory in TX or OK (either of which will be slower to build than China or Germany).

Chicken tax

 

[Twooz]

Zero incentive to do so especially with the degree of cynicism prevalent
I always do my own trading with quite satisfactory results
At the end of the day it’s the account bottom line that counts and everything else is conversation
And I feel absolutely no reason to provide any kind of detailed analysis because I am super busy and I don’t need to justify or present logic for my trading decisions all I care about is whether it works for me or no
I post here and on Twitter purely for amusement and don’t take my opinions seriously

1. It was a joke, mate.
2. If you don't wanna share your 'analysis' then why make the post?

 

[MC3OZ]

So, Q - as I was driving earlier today, I couldn't help but notice the ICE cars on the highway and how much so many have such emotional connections to their cars that, in some cases, have lasted generations. Also, just how much those cars pollute and how much climate change matters now and going forward. I think we're starting to have major changes in how people are listening to about this climate change issue for the first time in decades. With that said, to take so many cars off of the road in such a short amount of time (5-10 years rather than multiple decades) and replace them, largely, with a monopoly of Tesla passenger and logistics vehicles...

...anyone get the sense that a real amount of turmoil is about to occur and/or is already occurring?

This level of stock-price swings is a lot to take in and I'm trying to make sense of it of the relevance and amplitudinal emotional effect its having worldwide.

50 Trillion dollars worth of FF assets are about to become stranded... something like 7 out of the largest 10 companies in the world are oil companies, they face a bleak future, we are about to see an era of winners and losers as rapid change resets the landscape.

IMO staying out of the loser column, is just as important as being in the winner column..

This is a permanent an long lasting redistribution of wealth, COVID-19 is a short term change accelerator.. It is important not to let the short term cloud your vision of the long term.. change is inevitable and will happen faster than many expect.

 

[StealthP3D]

To increase margins, Tesla could offer some of the options other manufactures have used over the years. Incredibly OEMs have been able to charge extra for vinyl roofs, racing/rally stripes, shark logos, wire wheel hub caps, spoilers on non performance cars, hood scoops, gold tone anodized aluminum trim and many other non-value but high cost "Editions". No need for inconvenient and costly engineering, just ad some junk and market it. There's one born every minute.

I would only be in favor of this if it were to suck money from people who wanted things like twin chromed over-sized exhaust tips and hood scoops.

Seriously though, Musk finds such sort of gimmicks to be tasteless and would never do it.