Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SteveG3]

FWIW I coded my own neural network from scratch and have been coding for a scary 39 years *cracks knuckles*.
Yes, teslas approach is not only the best, but IMHO the ONLY one that can possibly offer a truly universal solution, and the only one that can produce a really safe solution to FSD.

But hell... this stuffs hard. Neural networks become a lot more like art than science. Its a messy *fuzzy* business, and starts to feel more like voodoo than normal code. Despite all the memes, its not that hard to predict how far through a project you are when its normal object-oriented traditional C++, but the minute you have a massive neural net involved... things get way harder to predict.

FWIW my entirely subjective opinion is that they may still be another small rewrite away from FSD. I think the big gear change was karpathy. He understands that you need the code to be mostly neural net, with minimal procedural code. I think thats the only answer, and its a tough one to agree with unless you work on this stuff all day, because it feels SCARy as a coder to effectively cede control of decision making to a neural net nobody can understand.

From what I read, karpathys time at tesla has been one of progressively lobbying for the NN to take over more of the decision making. I think it will make up an overwhelming proportion of all the FSD code eventually.

I dont think we will get FSD until end of 2021 at best. But I am 100% certain nobody will beat tesla to it, or even get close. Persuading trad auto companies to let software control a car is very hard. persuading them to let software *nobody understands* to do it is almost impossible. Its only possible at tesla because elon is a coder with an interest in how brains work.

thanks cliffski

I agree traditional automakers are not at all likely to venture into this on their own.

if I have it correct that a neural network approach requires real world miles on something like the scale Tesla is using, than even the big tech companies like Google, Apple, Intel, Nvidia, who in one way or another have a foot in the FSD door, would need to both go the neural net route (not sure if any are yet) AND pair up with an automaker who agrees to have the hardware, software, and upload data/download updates model Tesla has feeding from the automaker partners cars to the tech giants FSD team.

Curious if you see this as a reasonably accurate read of the pathway these tech companies would need. If so, it implies, Tesla has a lead time that we can monitor and estimate based on when any such potential 'big tech/large automaker' partnership arises (not 20K Waymo/Ipace, but, scale like Tesla), and our estimate on how long it would take from that point to achieve FSD, depending on what we think of the quality of chips and software teams at such a large tech company are.

 

[Causalien]

I agree. Freedom to spend you time as you wish is just one of the first rungs on the ladder of (economic) wealth. It's an important rung, although its perceived importance varies a lot between people. After comes expensive toys or hobbies, a fortune size that provides unreasonable power to help others, get favors or shape the world around you, and then stuff yet to be invented. Advanced health technology, trips to Mars and so on.

It isn't certain that you'll need a massive fortune to access some of these things after a certain point, though. If we succeed the right way at creating strong AI, there won't be much for money left to buy. But that's in the distant future, plenty of stuff to think about before then

There is a sense of zen once you lock down your life and know that you are set. Helps in prolonging life by reducing stress. Helps in your interaction with peers, helps your leadership abilities as your decisions now are no longer life and death. Sure, the all in method may gain you more money, but I suspect that the ability to think rationally without the stress will eventually bring you more "wealth" that you need in the end whether it be money or something else more valuable.

 

[jerry33]

There is a sense of zen once you lock down your life and know that you are set. Helps in prolonging life by reducing stress. Helps in your interaction with peers, helps your leadership abilities as your decisions now are no longer life and death. Sure, the all in method may gain you more money, but I suspect that the ability to think rationally without the stress will eventually bring you more "wealth" that you need in the end whether it be money or something else more valuable.

Pretty much. It helps your peace of mind a lot when you can be pretty sure you won't end up on the street eating cat food.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I know that's on my list (autopilot trailering). My guess is it's not soon - maybe with CT. I personally find that except for chill mode (which I don't really need) and more like a 55-60 driving speed, towing in Model X seems like the same as driving without the trailer. So I don't see the problem with Autopilot and trailering..

But I've also read that you can get trailer sway and I don't know what else where the trailer starts wagging the car, and thus you want the human handling the reaction to that (rather than autopilot). Then again, the car already makes minute adjustments to damp that out that I don't feel or worry about (I might suck at towing trailers with anything other a Tesla, as I don't really understand issues that others towing trailers need to deal with; I just drive).

I agree, and the Semi will teach Cyber how to trailer! Jackknives can be controlled if you have motors on each side, or likely just with independent wheel braking for all I know. There was stuff on this with Nikola recently (how not to do it).

 

[lafrisbee]

Oh...So your neural nets determine how much and what you know about neural nets (acquisitions) and make decisions about what neural nets are and can do.... and that's why I have no clue.

 

[LTC_RRR]

CNBC Video - half hour ago: Tesla shares surge more than 200% in 2020—Watch three experts discuss what's next for the stock

That video highlights one of the unfortunate consequences of popular adaptations in the current pandemic: cheap microphones and non-studio venues yield terrible, barely comprehensible audio.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Meanwhile, the battle for 1400 is joined again...

 

[PeterJA]

Blah blah ends around 2 minutes in.

Highlights:

Sandy thinks Cybertruck will appeal to off-road Jeep drivers in addition to the pickup truck market. Farmers are interested for the power.

Not worried about facilities for body repair, since dents and scratches will be a "badge of honor" for outdoorsmen.

Production will be simpler and cheaper. "Fancy curves are expensive to make."

Other manufacturers will likely copy the design.

 

[mekberg]

thanks cliffski

I agree traditional automakers are not at all likely to venture into this on their own.

if I have it correct that a neural network approach requires real world miles on something like the scale Tesla is using, than even the big tech companies like Google, Apple, Intel, Nvidia, who in one way or another have a foot in the FSD door, would need to both go the neural net route (not sure if any are yet) AND pair up with an automaker who agrees to have the hardware, software, and upload data/download updates model Tesla has feeding from the automaker partners cars to the tech giants FSD team.

Curious if you see this as a reasonably accurate read of the pathway these tech companies would need. If so, it implies, Tesla has a lead time that we can monitor and estimate based on when any such potential 'big tech/large automaker' partnership arises (not 20K Waymo/Ipace, but, scale like Tesla), and our estimate on how long it would take from that point to achieve FSD, depending on what we think of the quality of chips and software teams at such a large tech company are.

Closest that I know of is MB/NVDA.

 

[eloder]

Man, the FUD really is trying to stretch for new fantasies...

Tesla Downside If China Arrests Musk

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - today:

 

[lafrisbee]

I’m from Tuscaloosa, that’s hands — plural.

You've just explained to me why you need to wash your hands.... Hubris

 

[oldTAVguy]

Man, the FUD really is trying to stretch for new fantasies...

Tesla Downside If China Arrests Musk

This was yesterday but the following is even funnier...

https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus

Posted again because some may have missed because of the large number of posts.

 

[copyhacker]

Thoughts on the hiring of the Apple Pay chap. Don't forget, Elon likes to disrupt banks and had to sell PayPal before it had reached its full potential.

Tesla will create Tesla Pay.
...
This will be used to buy stuff for...

Just wait until it's blockchain-ified and hooked up to Tesla Solar, enabling all kinds of mindblowing stuff like:

- using excess solar generation to pay for Supercharging or lunch or anything, really
- getting paid by the utilities for excess charge sitting in your car's battery going to the grid
- earning credits towards car upgrades, FSD, Tesla Network rides, even a whole new car

This isn't even taking the Autobidder virtual utility stuff into account.

Starting a whole new economy based on electrons is at least an order of magnitude bigger than anything else Tesla is currently doing, and almost all the pieces are there today.

 

[hobbes]

Pretty much. It helps your peace of mind a lot when you can be pretty sure you won't end up on the street eating cat food.

This is like an early 2010´s revival party today, with all the long time members back and consecutive posts from @SteveG3 @Causalien an you . One of the best things about reaching all time highs.

 

[Jack6591]

You've just explained to me why you need to wash your hands.... Hubris

I wear chocolate shoes. It tastes better when I put my foot in my mouth.

 

[oldTAVguy]

A lot of work ($$$) being expended keeping the price under 1400 today. It's been fun to watch and they provided the opportunity to get more discounted shares earlier this morning.

Edit: they may fail

 

[EV forever]

What happened to that beautiful 3pm dip like yesterday? I was all ready with some dry powder to pick up a few shares and no dip!
We cannot even rely on MMs to manipulate consistently anymore, what is the world coming to?

 

[mekberg]

Just wait until it's blockchain-ified and hooked up to Tesla Solar, enabling all kinds of mindblowing stuff like:

- using excess solar generation to pay for Supercharging or lunch or anything, really
- getting paid by the utilities for excess charge sitting in your car's battery going to the grid
- earning credits towards car upgrades, FSD, Tesla Network rides, even a whole new car

This isn't even taking the Autobidder virtual utility stuff into account.

Starting a whole new economy based on electrons is at least an order of magnitude bigger than anything else Tesla is currently doing, and almost all the pieces are there today.

TSLA buy SQ?

 

[Steve m]

Who is going to buy shares when it hits 1420?