Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

I'm guessing the FOMO rise will start within the next half hour.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Several questions:
transformative boring machine

Very cut-down quote!


Plenty of useful info, bit hidden - FAQ — The Boring Company

Zac/Jesse/Now You Know videos -

(playlist) and

(final/summary)

Fill yer boots @c041v

Personally I'm convinced and look forward to pedestrian, cycle, EV tunnels/loops/hyperloops and equally the ground above devoid of any cars with plenty more human and green space. I want to invest in the Boring Company above all other Elon companies.

 

[Tslynk67]

is the consensus here that a profit is a long shot that would be awesome or that it is likely?

I'm 100% certain about it. I copy here what I wrote in the other thread:

How could it be a loss when the previous quarter was a profit, with 5k less deliveries, Plus 5k of the deliveries in Q2 came from inventory, the factory was shut for 6 weeks, with most workers being furloughed, all staff took a pay cut of between 10-30%, lots of high-spec MY in the Q2 mix, more MIC M3 with higher margins, and we all bought loads of merchandise in the final few days of the quarter.

Based on all that alone, I expect profits, and THEN Tesla can choose to recognise some deferred revenue and ZEV credits, finally they could bring deferred tax-revenue into play, which is $1.8b on the balance sheet when they feel like it.

 

[LJS22]

Sounds about right.

I'm expecting a beat and profitable, however even if it isn't a beat or is a loss, ultimately the company was shut down for half the quarter....COVID is a pretty good excuse...so while there might be a wild short-term swing, I expect it to be temporary. Bigger thing is guidance...Reaffirming guidance would be great, as the market has uncertainty about demand (as usual) only this time due to COVID.

Exactly, if we are to be mad at anything it would be Elon Musk’s *sugar* talking. However, even that served a purpose in that a ton of shorts have covered simply on his comments about this quarter.

With that said this has been one of the most fun quarters I’ve ever had. Elon makes it personal and I can get behind that. Let’s enjoy the day though! Fireworks are coming

 

[mejojo]

Just made my earnings play, 93k worth of 9/18 2000 calls

Not trying to capture battery day?

 

[azaz]

Not trying to capture battery day?

Think this earnings report and SP inclusion will be much bigger drivers of the stock, also don’t plan on holding these for more than a week or so. Not very confident in macro conditions

 

[ninpb]

I was surprised to learn how auto dealerships paid their mechanics. Not base pay but per service rate. No car to work on, no pay. I haven't gone out to verify but it was from one person who worked as one at an MB dealership. Curious how Tesla operates.

 

[Curt Renz]

Does anyone have to take AJ's question? I'm sure there are a lot of great questions submitted in say.

Can Tesla just ban that fool...or not take any questions from it...I mean him?

The callers are first screened by a Tesla operator. If Elon doesn't approve of a name, the caller can be ignored. There is no legal requirement to engage with any or all callers.

 

[StealthP3D]

CNBC - earlier in the hour:

It kills me every time a so-called "analyst" says Tesla has had almost no competition for years. What is it that they don't understand about the fact that Tesla has been competing directly with ICE cars the entire time? Are they that stupid? Consumers buy cars to get to work, to shop and to recreate, not to consume gas or electricity, that is just a symptom of getting the job done.

So every time they say "Tesla has had almost no competition" it's like they are admitting gas cars can't compete with electric cars.

 

[woodisgood]

Can Tesla just ban that fool...or not take any questions from it...I mean him?

I'm sure they'd love to, but obviously he represents Morgan Stanley, and it might not be a great idea to blackball one of the firms that runs your capital raises...

 

[UkNorthampton]

It kills me every time a so-called "analyst" says Tesla has had almost no competition for years. What is it that they don't understand about the fact that Tesla has been competing directly with ICE cars the entire time? Are they that stupid? Consumers buy cars to get to work, to shop and to recreate, not to consume gas or electricity, that is just a symptom of getting the job done.

So every time they say "Tesla has had almost no competition" it's like they are admitting gas cars can't compete with electric cars.

They see EVs as a segment like SUVs, B, C etc. They don't understand that Model 3 is against BMW 3 & Merc C, Zoe is against Yaris or whatever.

Do they compare diesel Focus against petrol Golf - I don't think so. But OEMs offer both normally. Very different driving experiences and one company can make a good diesel & awful/unreliable petrol or vice versa

 

[Xepa777]

Sorry if regarded as off-topic, but The Boring Company has been mentioned a lot and I think it is a key enabler of Tesla and EVs in general. [Now You Know videos show build a tunnel, sell more Teslas]

I'm trying to get a list of securities as proxy for SpaceX that I (UK) and others (USA, EU, RoW) can buy

I've got a list below, but percentages of fund in SpaceX for only a few. It's in a google spreadsheet that I cannot share, but I can post formulas when complete.

I'm hoping someone has already done this or similar work. I want to buy SpaceX - with as high a % of fund as possible in the UK. Any help appreciated.

Funds in spoiler to save space.

Spoiler

Ticker Exchange Manual name Name lookup %SpaceX
_ Space Exploration Technologies Corp _Space Exploration Technologies Corp
BATS: PRNT ARK ETF TR/3D PRTG ETF
NYSEARCA:ARKF ARK ETF TR/FINTECH INNOVATION ETF
BATS:ARKG ARK ETF TR/GENOMIC REVOLUTION
BATS:ARKG ARK ETF TR/GENOMIC REVOLUTION
BATS:ARKQ ARK ETF TR/INDL INNOVATION ETF
BATS:ARKQ ARK ETF TR/INDL INNOVATION ETF
NYSEARCA:ARKK ARK ETF TR/INNOVATION ETF
NYSEARCA:ARKK ARK ETF TR/INNOVATION ETF
BATS:IZRL ARK ETF TR/ISRAEL INNOVATIVE T
NYSEARCA:ARKW ARK ETF TR/WEB X.0 ETF
NYSEARCA:ARKW ARK ETF TR/WEB X.0 ETF
LON:USA Baillie Gifford US Growth Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust PLC
MUTF:BFTUX Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund Class R6
MUTF:BFTHX Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund Retail Class
MUTF:BFGIX Baron Focused Growth Fund Institutional Shares 3.90%
MUTF:BFGUX Baron Focused Growth Fund R6 Shares
MUTF:BFGFX Baron Focused Growth Fund Retail Shares
MUTF:BPTIX Baron Partners Fund Institutional Shares 4.00%
MUTF:BPTRX Baron Partners Fund Retail Shares 4%
LON:EWI Edinburgh Worldwide (EWI) Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust plc
MUTF:FBGRX Fidelity® Blue Chip Growth Fund
MUTF:FCNTX Fidelity® Contrafund® Fund
MUTF:FOCPX Fidelity® OTC Portfolio
LON:SMT Scottish Mortgage (SMT) Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust PLC

You can't invest in SpaceX directly, but if you're accredited then you can invest in a fund that's 100% SpaceX shares (so effectively the same thing, minus some fees and voting rights). Thread here - SpaceX

Several people on TMC (myself included) are invested in SpaceX through that.

 

[mekberg]

If each Tesla buyer "infects" family, friends, coworkers with "Teslaitis" at a rate of only 1 other person per owner per year, what kind of sales growth rate does that result in? The answer is it depends upon the average time between the original sale and the resulting sale. I honestly don't think Tesla will need to advertise for years to come.

Basic reproduction number - Wikipedia

My "R nought" is easily 4 in the couple of years I've owned my Model 3.

 

[GOVA]

I did actually address some of this - I'm not questioning the team or their ability to innovate, I just don't clearly understand the innovation at present. A faster, smaller diameter TBM is not a Model S or Reusable rocket. It's just a faster, smaller, TBM (which already exists for utility boring applications, we use them all the time).

What I'm curious and excited about is exactly how The Boring Company plans on innovating and addressing the challenges I mentioned, as Construction is in dire need of disruption and so far, nobody has been able to figure out how to change the status quo. I do realize top talent is drawn to Musk's companies as well and that is part of the secret sauce as it's not the B team trying to do the same thing over and over, which is a common frustration of mine with regards to my current employer.

<-- boring company thread is that way
The Boring Company

 

[Maxstorz]

I'm guessing the FOMO rise will start within the next half hour.

You’re right

I just FOMOed and bought

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I really wish Elon would come to this thread and read some of our 'thoughts, ideas and support" I bet he'd get a big kick out of this thread and may even say "GAAP is for sure and 130k deliveries for Q3 will be on the low end" This is going to be the longest 2.5 hours of our lives....hahahahaa!! Good luck to all!!

 

[Maxstorz]

I'm 100% certain about it. I copy here what I wrote in the other thread:

How could it be a loss when the previous quarter was a profit, with 5k less deliveries, Plus 5k of the deliveries in Q2 came from inventory, the factory was shut for 6 weeks, with most workers being furloughed, all staff took a pay cut of between 10-30%, lots of high-spec MY in the Q2 mix, more MIC M3 with higher margins, and we all bought loads of merchandise in the final few days of the quarter.

Based on all that alone, I expect profits, and THEN Tesla can choose to recognise some deferred revenue and ZEV credits, finally they could bring deferred tax-revenue into play, which is $1.8b on the balance sheet when they feel like it.

I hope you are right!

 

[woodisgood]

Can't decide if I want to go all-in on this one or keep some free for a potential sale...

My head says the latter but my heart says the former.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

I really wish Elon would come to this thread and read some of our 'thoughts, ideas and support" I bet he'd get a big kick out of this thread and may even say "GAAP is for sure and 130k deliveries for Q3 will be on the low end" This is going to be the longest 2.5 hours of our lives....hahahahaa!! Good luck to all!!

What makes you think he's not already here ? (Cue Twighlight Zone Music)

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla Daily - early this morning: