Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zero CO2]

It appears that $1475 is the new $1500 ....

 

[Mo City]

Well I have used that name since the AOL day's.
First airline went out of business and I was a unemployed pilot.

Circle is complete. This time is better

I've been in the industry for over 30 years, not as a pilot. From reading your posts here, you are a very nice and polite person and a credit to your profession. Wish there were more like you.

Congratulations on retirement and I hope to be there soon.

 

[Jovian]

I wanted to ask some feedback on a trading strategy.

I live in Europe, so trading options for TSLA from my local bank is not possible.
I am contemplating opening account with some of the outlets that support trading for non US citizens, but untill then I decided to try something different.
It is inspired by the ARK fund - from what I have heard they have a requirement where they can not own more than 10% of the fund's equity value in any stock (or maybe it was only for TSLA). This has the built in feature that if TSLA goes up (compared to the rest of the assets in the fund) they need to sell and if it goes down they can re-buy on lower price.

In my local bank there is a warrant product that is tracking TSLA roughly 3x. So if TSLA goes up 1% the products goes up 3%.
The trading in this product is free - there are no trading fees.
So I dedicated approx. $20000 and bought stock for that amount deciding that this is what I want to have in that stock.
If the value of the stock I have goes above $21500 I sell so the value of is back to $20k. If the value goes down to $18500 I buy to get to the $20k.
So far (in the $1430-$1550 range) it has been going good... but of course there are some risks. I am trying to find out more about risk/reward of such system, especially long tail (or wipe out) effects. Or a way to simulate this for longer period of time.

I can not find what is this called - I found about value averaging, but it is not the same.

Any links/info/help would be appreciated.

This sounds similar to 3x leveraged ETFs. It's not as magical as it may sound as long term performance won't match the same long term as TSLA. They are using leveraged instruments such as options and other things to match the daily fluctuations (if it's daily matching), but paying fees and such in the long term. I don't fully understand it's details I used it for trading when SPY was super volatile, but then got freaked out with all these warnings and bailed as I didn't really understand what was going on behind the scenes.

Just remember nothing is free. If you are getting something on the front-end you're giving something up on the back-end. So you're getting 3x leverage, but losing ___________.

Here's a primer: Why 3x ETFs Are Riskier Than You Think.

Could still be worth it for you as it may outperform stock in the long-term, I just like to know what I'm giving up and how much, otherwise seems too much like a dice roll.

 

[clmason]

Seems like we could start applying pressure to the S&P Committee. Lest they allow themselves to age out, like fossil fuels. Can we release the hounds via twitter? #TSLA_S&P500

 

[Yoona]

Frankly, investing in non public companies through SPVs Is a spectacularly bad idea ....

I keep it simple: I don't deposit my money on investment institutions that haven't been around for decades, or have no visibility, or those who exist only on apps, or those controlled only by one guy (think Bernie Madoff).

I have watched enough "American Greed" episodes to know anyone can set up shop and print "statements".

 

[StealthP3D]

Seems like we could start applying pressure to the S&P Committee. Lest they allow themselves to age out, like fossil fuels. Can we release the hounds via twitter? #TSLA_S&P500

I'm sure the S&P 500 committee contains some long-standing members who have "seen it all" it terms of various shareholders trying to apply pressure to get their pet stock included.

Personally, I'm of the mind that while the announcement of inclusion could cause quite a bump to the share price, the actual inclusion isn't very relevant to the actual business Tesla is engaged in. Yes, it would help if Tesla ever wanted to raise vast sums of money to grow the solar or energy storage parts of their business but I think S&P inclusion will come, it just a matter of the exact timing. Because it will almost certainly be this year, I'm not anxious, at all.

That said, any public pressure applied should be in the form of general ridicule that the index purporting to represent the largest American public companies, doesn't include a single automaker, nor the most innovative modern and forward-looking of them all, Tesla. The obvious implication is the index is no longer as relevant as it pretends to be. In other words, ridicule that the index doesn't contain TSLA would be more effective than demanding that it be included.

 

[Tslynk67]

Seems like we could start applying pressure to the S&P Committee. Lest they allow themselves to age out, like fossil fuels. Can we release the hounds via twitter? #TSLA_S&P500

You think those Luddites use Twitter?

You think they remotely care, unless it's in their best interests?

For all we know, the decision is made to join and the index funds have the nod to accumulate, but are give whole August to do so, nice and slow while there's low summer volume.

 

[MP3Mike]

Seems like we could start applying pressure to the S&P Committee. Lest they allow themselves to age out, like fossil fuels. Can we release the hounds via twitter? #TSLA_S&P500

Let them do their job. Maybe part of the committee is on vacation. They will get to it when they get to it.

 

[Silentk]

Seen on Twitter:

Could be another money spinner for Tesla....

 

[Todd Burch]

Over the past several weeks we've hovered generally around the $1500 trading range. This has resulted in discussion about TSLA being a bubble virtually disappearing. This is a good thing as it establishes a new springboard that the stock can jump from when we pass our next positive news milestone (Q3 prod/deliveries and battery day).

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I keep it simple: I don't deposit my money on investment institutions that haven't been around for decades, or have no visibility, or those who exist only on apps, or those controlled only by one guy (think Bernie Madoff).

I have watched enough "American Greed" episodes to know anyone can set up shop and print "statements".

Or can manipulate legitimate statements by cutting and pasting over the numbers Amazes me how people get away with things, get busted, and then go on and do the same thing again.

 

[Tslynk67]

Over the past several weeks we've hovered generally around the $1500 trading range. This has resulted in discussion about TSLA being a bubble virtually disappearing. This is a good thing as it establishes a new springboard that the stock can jump from when we pass our next positive news milestone (Q3 prod/deliveries and battery day).

Indeed, a perusal of the yearly chart shows that just before most big break-outs we've had protracted plateaus.

So it's all good, although I'm still looking for an anomaly to sell those weeklies...

 

[Brian121]

I wanted to ask some feedback on a trading strategy.

I live in Europe, so trading options for TSLA from my local bank is not possible.
I am contemplating opening account with some of the outlets that support trading for non US citizens, but untill then I decided to try something different.
It is inspired by the ARK fund - from what I have heard they have a requirement where they can not own more than 10% of the fund's equity value in any stock (or maybe it was only for TSLA). This has the built in feature that if TSLA goes up (compared to the rest of the assets in the fund) they need to sell and if it goes down they can re-buy on lower price.

In my local bank there is a warrant product that is tracking TSLA roughly 3x. So if TSLA goes up 1% the products goes up 3%.
The trading in this product is free - there are no trading fees.
So I dedicated approx. $20000 and bought stock for that amount deciding that this is what I want to have in that stock.
If the value of the stock I have goes above $21500 I sell so the value of is back to $20k. If the value goes down to $18500 I buy to get to the $20k.
So far (in the $1430-$1550 range) it has been going good... but of course there are some risks. I am trying to find out more about risk/reward of such system, especially long tail (or wipe out) effects. Or a way to simulate this for longer period of time.

I can not find what is this called - I found about value averaging, but it is not the same.

Any links/info/help would be appreciated.

There are other members who have already provided valuable information. And I have not clicked some of the links so my information maybe repetitive.

Yes. 3X something is like leveraged ETFs, there are some mutual fund company who specialized in this, cannot remember now since it's not something worth remembering.

Not sure how they structure 3x TESLA, but there are many 3 time long and short ETFs on certain indexes, oil, etc. They used options and future contracts to try to magnify the effect. But there is heavy fee involved. So it could happen that even though the stock price goes range bound and side way, the 3x leveraged ETF could show continuous downward trend due to the fee and cost they have to pay to roll over those options and future contracts.

So it is a saying that if you want to long a stock, you actually would like to short the 3x short ETF on the stock or related index. The reason being that 3x short means it will go down if the underlying stock goes up (3 times maybe?). And even if the stock goes side way, the 3x short ETF would still goes down due to the fee. So two forces all work in your favor.

Anyway, that's the idea. Could be wrong since I never treat them as investment, just gambling so never paid close attention to them.

Oh, there is another common wisdom, even if you put money in 3x ETF, This is not something you want to hold long term. even several days holding is too long, regardless of long or short. Due to the fee and other unknown factors. Pure gambling.

 

[vikings123]

TSLA literally going to sleep with these low volumes. It might end up being the lowest volume traded for Tesla in a long time, 6.362 million on June 22nd. So boring yawn....

 

[Beezer_9]

The calm before the STORM!

 

[scaesare]

Yeah that fender sliding open is a good idea/S

Indeed.

My first thought in seeing that was "What happens if you crank the steering wheel to the right?"

 

[elasalle]

Is it Friday (@1495 max -Pain) yet

 

[dl003]

The calm before the STORM!

But we don't want the calm; we want the storm.

 

[UncaNed]

Seems like we could start applying pressure to the S&P Committee. Lest they allow themselves to age out, like fossil fuels. Can we release the hounds via twitter? #TSLA_S&P500

DON'T DO THAT NEITHER.

 

[bobo]

If that product is a 3x certificate - where it follows tsla up and down with a 3x multiplier - tsla volatility will pretty much make it worthless in the long run.

Yeah, you are correct! Theoretically since my strategy is locked on value that should not matter as long as the income from the strategy is larger than the costs for the warrant. I was more interested in feedback to the strategy and not the product. The same strategy can be applied to a normal stock.