Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Was planning to buys another 50 shares in the near term.

Who’s waiting for the stock to split before buying again?

What is the « usual » stock trajectory after a split? A small dip or meteor rise?

Time in the market beats trying to time the market!

 

[StealthP3D]

Well another mistake on my part may net me some money.
I failed to close out 10 1650 calls on friday and failed to call the broker by 430 to decline execution.
It was in the money by 71 cents.

Dont have 1,650,000 in cash in the account.
Called broker to ask what happens monday. Was worried they might sell my LEAPS to pay for the call.


Don't know what other brokers do but mine will sell the stock that the calls obtained at market open.
I will then owe or be owed the difference.

Will I be banned from trading for 10 days ?
WILL THE WIFE FIND OUT ?

You might make out like a bandit on that!

Or lose your shirt. Hard to say which one for sure, lol!

 

[jerry33]

You might make out like a bandit on that!

Or lose your shirt. Hard to say which one for sure, lol!

If you are like me, many of your shirts are so old they are ripped in places--so no big loss.

 

[ggies07]

Morning mods - this thread is coming up to 10,000 pages. Do we need a new thread?

Don't want it to meltdown in the middle of an inclusion squeeze!

Could one of the mods make a pop-up window the day of Battery Day, so that when you first visit here you are given a direct link to a dedicated thread?

 

[LN1_Casey]

Could one of the mods make a pop-up window the day of Battery Day, so that when you first visit here you are given a direct link to a dedicated thread?

Don't think pop ups are within the capabilities. They could just lock the post with the last post being a link to the new one.

 

[theschnell]

Well another mistake on my part may net me some money.
I failed to close out 10 1650 calls on friday and failed to call the broker by 430 to decline execution.
It was in the money by 71 cents.

Dont have 1,650,000 in cash in the account.
Called broker to ask what happens monday. Was worried they might sell my LEAPS to pay for the call.


Don't know what other brokers do but mine will sell the stock that the calls obtained at market open.
I will then owe or be owed the difference.

Will I be banned from trading for 10 days ?
WILL THE WIFE FIND OUT ?

If you are authorized to trade pre-market, then you can sell some portion of these shares with a limit order during pre-market so that you have some control, vs risking your brokerage dumping them all at open.

 

[Artful Dodger]

08:00 a.m. Whistle: Mon, 17 Aug 2020

• TSLA share price: $1,673.20 +22.49 +1.36%
• NASDAQ Pre-market Volume: 130,698
• NASDAQ-100 Futures: +76.75 +0.69% 08:06:54 ET

Comment: "Pre-Market Volume is moderate"

Cheers!

 

[CLK350]

If you are like me, many of your shirts are so old they are ripped in places--so no big loss.

It *is* a big loss .. these days you can't find 100% cotton shirts made with cotton that hasn't been nano coated for no iron properties. So new cotton shirts have this plastic feel - not the same more comfy feel as traditional non-treated cotton shirts.

OT. Just like trying desperately to find a vaccine for C19 while neglecting the obvious safer and more effective preventive measures. In case you didn't know (not blaming you, the paid press also doesn't make a buck of these news): better diet that improves your immune system is the keto diet as a very good first approximation. Check out also Richard Cheng's recs (Chinese US MD who happened to be in Shanghai when C19 hit). Health is wealth, just sayin' while enjoying the pre market moves ... 1679 just now 8:47AM 8/17/2020.

 

[Jack6591]

To those that have done well while doing good — those that have prospered while advancing sustainable transportation and renewable energy — I would like to meet. I feel as though I have a group of virtual friends sharing common beliefs; I would love to put faces and voices to many that have become fixtures in my life. I am proud to call you friends, and hope we can take it to the next level.

In the near future, we will see pandemic remedies. Once the time arrives, my greatest hope is that can meet in person.

 

[redan]

To those that have done well while doing good — those that have prospered while advancing sustainable transportation and renewable energy — I would like to meet. I feel as though I have a group of virtual friends sharing common beliefs; I would love to put faces and voices to many that have become fixtures in my life. I am proud to call you friends, and hope we can take it to the next level.

In the near future, we will see pandemic remedies. Once the time arrives, my greatest hope is that can meet in person.

I know just the place, paging @Krugerrand.

 

[tinm]

To those that have done well while doing good — those that have prospered while advancing sustainable transportation and renewable energy — I would like to meet. I feel as though I have a group of virtual friends sharing common beliefs; I would love to put faces and voices to many that have become fixtures in my life. I am proud to call you friends, and hope we can take it to the next level.

In the near future, we will see pandemic remedies. Once the time arrives, my greatest hope is that can meet in person.

If you’re not a member of your nearby Tesla Owners Club, join it. The one here in New Mexico hasn’t met since January and we’re going crazy. All looking forward to our monthly meetings again.

I plan to travel to a dozen or two TOC events next year in a nationwide road trip hawking my Tesla book. I am hoping there will be much to celebrate in 2021.

And more on-topic: I expect the stock to touch 2000 before the split, then catch a breather between early and mid-September, followed by a rise pre-Battery Day and after that, well, Battery Day better be good. (I figure chances near 100% that they’ll unveil new S/X refreshes since I got a new S LR+ in June.)

 

[vikings123]

Some Monday morning humor.

Einhorn: Tesla has been "abusing its stakeholders"
Einhorn also discussed Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which he said has been "abusing its stakeholders" so much that he could write pages about it every quarter. This time he talked about once instance involving sudden unintended acceleration in Tesla vehicles.

He cited a study conducted by Dr. Ronald A. Belt which found an issue with how the Tesla braking system interacts with the battery regeneration system. The result is that in some situations, pressing the brake causes the vehicle to accelerate, and the harder the driver presses the brake, the faster in accelerates.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said in January that it will investigate the complaints, although Tesla denies there is a problem. Einhorn said the more technologically complex products become with "intertwined hardware and software systems, the more difficult it is to design them for universal adoption in real-world large scale deployments.

He believes the combined software and hardware problem might be easily fixable and compared it to Boeing's issues with the 737 MAX. Einhorn added that a massive recall on a defective product can financially ruin a company and end management's career, but Tesla can't be trusted to do it on its own. He added that it will be up to the NHTSA to order a recall of Tesla vehicles with safety-related defects.

Einhorn also noted that there is speculation about Tesla joining the S&P 500, but he believes the company has been abusing the accounting rules.

"Through what appears to be sheer abuse of the accounting rules, TSLA has now contrived reported profits to make it technically eligible [to enter the S&P 500]," he wrote. In addition to its routinely questionable accounting maneuvers, Tesla appeared to defer employee compensation, depreciation expense on its new plant in China, and research and development spending."

He also called attention to the sharp increase in sales of regulatory credits in the automaker's latest earnings report. The company previously included a statement that it recognizes revenue on the sale of credits at the time control of the credits is transferred to the purchasing party.

However, Tesla sharply increased its recognition of regulatory credits sharply in the first and second quarters. Einhorn said that in the past, Tesla received cash for sales of regulatory credits, but this year they have "piled up in accounts receivable."

Further, he said Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) is the company's primary customer for those credits, and Tesla's recognition of the revenue from those credits isn't consistent with Fiat Chrysler's recognition of expenses for those credits. He questions whether Tesla's accounting and the way it handles the transfer of regulatory credits and payment for them conform to GAAP accounting.

"We suspect that TSLA changed its accounting policy during a non-audited quarter to manipulate eligibility in the S&P 500 index," Einhorn wrote. "The consensus is that S&P will add TSLA to the S&P 500 index at the next opportunity with a large weighting, forcing millions of passive investors to sell the other 499 stocks to make room for TSLA at whatever the price du jour. We think the S&P 500 Index Committee has a tough decision to make as to how to respond to being gamed like this."

 

[Prunesquallor]

Some Monday morning humor.

Einhorn: Tesla has been "abusing its stakeholders"
Einhorn also discussed Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which he said has been "abusing its stakeholders" so much that he could write pages about it every quarter. This time he talked about once instance involving sudden unintended acceleration in Tesla vehicles.

He cited a study conducted by Dr. Ronald A. Belt which found an issue with how the Tesla braking system interacts with the battery regeneration system. The result is that in some situations, pressing the brake causes the vehicle to accelerate, and the harder the driver presses the brake, the faster in accelerates.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said in January that it will investigate the complaints, although Tesla denies there is a problem. Einhorn said the more technologically complex products become with "intertwined hardware and software systems, the more difficult it is to design them for universal adoption in real-world large scale deployments.

He believes the combined software and hardware problem might be easily fixable and compared it to Boeing's issues with the 737 MAX. Einhorn added that a massive recall on a defective product can financially ruin a company and end management's career, but Tesla can't be trusted to do it on its own. He added that it will be up to the NHTSA to order a recall of Tesla vehicles with safety-related defects.

Einhorn also noted that there is speculation about Tesla joining the S&P 500, but he believes the company has been abusing the accounting rules.

"Through what appears to be sheer abuse of the accounting rules, TSLA has now contrived reported profits to make it technically eligible [to enter the S&P 500]," he wrote. In addition to its routinely questionable accounting maneuvers, Tesla appeared to defer employee compensation, depreciation expense on its new plant in China, and research and development spending."

He also called attention to the sharp increase in sales of regulatory credits in the automaker's latest earnings report. The company previously included a statement that it recognizes revenue on the sale of credits at the time control of the credits is transferred to the purchasing party.

However, Tesla sharply increased its recognition of regulatory credits sharply in the first and second quarters. Einhorn said that in the past, Tesla received cash for sales of regulatory credits, but this year they have "piled up in accounts receivable."

Further, he said Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) is the company's primary customer for those credits, and Tesla's recognition of the revenue from those credits isn't consistent with Fiat Chrysler's recognition of expenses for those credits. He questions whether Tesla's accounting and the way it handles the transfer of regulatory credits and payment for them conform to GAAP accounting.

"We suspect that TSLA changed its accounting policy during a non-audited quarter to manipulate eligibility in the S&P 500 index," Einhorn wrote. "The consensus is that S&P will add TSLA to the S&P 500 index at the next opportunity with a large weighting, forcing millions of passive investors to sell the other 499 stocks to make room for TSLA at whatever the price du jour. We think the S&P 500 Index Committee has a tough decision to make as to how to respond to being gamed like this."

Do we know who pays this guy for this stuff, or does he just despise Elon?

 

[Jack6591]

Einhorn: This hardball.

Musk: I can throw a lot harder than you can catch.

 

[replicant]

Some Monday morning humor.

Einhorn: Tesla has been "abusing its stakeholders"
Einhorn also discussed Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which he said has been "abusing its stakeholders" so much that he could write pages about it every quarter. This time he talked about once instance involving sudden unintended acceleration in Tesla vehicles.

He cited a study conducted by Dr. Ronald A. Belt which found an issue with how the Tesla braking system interacts with the battery regeneration system. The result is that in some situations, pressing the brake causes the vehicle to accelerate, and the harder the driver presses the brake, the faster in accelerates.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said in January that it will investigate the complaints, although Tesla denies there is a problem. Einhorn said the more technologically complex products become with "intertwined hardware and software systems, the more difficult it is to design them for universal adoption in real-world large scale deployments.

He believes the combined software and hardware problem might be easily fixable and compared it to Boeing's issues with the 737 MAX. Einhorn added that a massive recall on a defective product can financially ruin a company and end management's career, but Tesla can't be trusted to do it on its own. He added that it will be up to the NHTSA to order a recall of Tesla vehicles with safety-related defects.

Einhorn also noted that there is speculation about Tesla joining the S&P 500, but he believes the company has been abusing the accounting rules.

"Through what appears to be sheer abuse of the accounting rules, TSLA has now contrived reported profits to make it technically eligible [to enter the S&P 500]," he wrote. In addition to its routinely questionable accounting maneuvers, Tesla appeared to defer employee compensation, depreciation expense on its new plant in China, and research and development spending."

He also called attention to the sharp increase in sales of regulatory credits in the automaker's latest earnings report. The company previously included a statement that it recognizes revenue on the sale of credits at the time control of the credits is transferred to the purchasing party.

However, Tesla sharply increased its recognition of regulatory credits sharply in the first and second quarters. Einhorn said that in the past, Tesla received cash for sales of regulatory credits, but this year they have "piled up in accounts receivable."

Further, he said Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) is the company's primary customer for those credits, and Tesla's recognition of the revenue from those credits isn't consistent with Fiat Chrysler's recognition of expenses for those credits. He questions whether Tesla's accounting and the way it handles the transfer of regulatory credits and payment for them conform to GAAP accounting.

"We suspect that TSLA changed its accounting policy during a non-audited quarter to manipulate eligibility in the S&P 500 index," Einhorn wrote. "The consensus is that S&P will add TSLA to the S&P 500 index at the next opportunity with a large weighting, forcing millions of passive investors to sell the other 499 stocks to make room for TSLA at whatever the price du jour. We think the S&P 500 Index Committee has a tough decision to make as to how to respond to being gamed like this."

Even worse, Tesla has yet to deliver his short shorts. This delay cannot be tolerated, as it might reveal Einhorn was swimming naked all along even when S&P500 tide goes in!

 

[Tslynk67]

Well another mistake on my part may net me some money.
I failed to close out 10 1650 calls on friday and failed to call the broker by 430 to decline execution.
It was in the money by 71 cents.

Dont have 1,650,000 in cash in the account.
Called broker to ask what happens monday. Was worried they might sell my LEAPS to pay for the call.


Don't know what other brokers do but mine will sell the stock that the calls obtained at market open.
I will then owe or be owed the difference.

Will I be banned from trading for 10 days ?
WILL THE WIFE FIND OUT ?

With my broker you go into a short-fall status and you get 5 days to clear the balance, after which they'll do whatever they think is necessary. It's a rather nice system, actually, because essentially they by the stocks on margin (even though there's no margin agreement), and then you can sell them pithing 5 days for profit, or whatever.

 

[Tslynk67]

To those that have done well while doing good — those that have prospered while advancing sustainable transportation and renewable energy — I would like to meet. I feel as though I have a group of virtual friends sharing common beliefs; I would love to put faces and voices to many that have become fixtures in my life. I am proud to call you friends, and hope we can take it to the next level.

In the near future, we will see pandemic remedies. Once the time arrives, my greatest hope is that can meet in person.

We can resuscitate the Iceland trip...

BTW, pre-market looks very fishy - capping at $1680, no? $1700 seems to be this week's target at this moment in time.

 

[Knightshade]

Musk has stated that the main goal of Starlink is for it to not bankrupt.

How many Superchargers are there and how much potential revenue can SpaceX get from those based on an arm-length deal? There are roughly 2000 SC locations worldwide, and let's assume that it grows to 5000. At an arm-length deal, Tesla would be paying wholesale rate for 5000 hotspots, SpaceX would be lucky to get 500k a month from Tesla for that service. And what's 500k a month for SpaceX burn rate? Not even spare change.

The reasonable thing for Starlink's survival would be to work out a deal with Tesla to provide the hardware and connectivity for Tesla cars and maybe split the $10/mth per vehicle that Tesla charges. Let's say they go half way, SpaceX makes $5/mth per car, that's millions of dollars of revenue every MONTH.

If you were Elon, where would you put your effort on when you have executive power in both companies? I'd make it happen as it's win-win for both Tesla and SpaceX.

But the possible customer base for fixed internet for starlink is at least tens of millions in the US alone currently on slow/rural internet... and billions worldwide with none at all...all at significantly more than $5/mo (in the US anyway, dunno what pricing would be in say India)


So redesigning the entire system (including tiny aero antennas vs the medium pizza box ones now) to capture $5/mo, even from a million customers, doesn't make much sense at all as an early priority.

Which is probably why Elon has been so dismissive of the idea when asked about it.


But using it at supercharger locations to provide wifi adds no costs on the SpaceX end, and requires no redesign or receiver changes at all- you just install it like you would anywhere and a pizza box receiver is just fine. So that's a much easier lift while giving Tesla a value add at SC locations.

Einhorn: This hardball.

Musk: I can throw a lot harder than you can catch.

Einhorn is a great example of a bad stock picker.

He got lucky with Lehman so people threw money at him to manage... and he's mostly pissed it away on bad choices since... (and not just Tesla- remember he's the guy who thought Keurig had a tiny potential market...he also sold off Apple shares in 2014 and is long coal... who the hell is long on coal?)

 

[Driver Dave]

Some Monday morning humor.

Einhorn: Tesla has been "abusing its stakeholders"
Einhorn also discussed Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which he said has been "abusing its stakeholders" so much that he could write pages about it every quarter. This time he talked about once instance involving sudden unintended acceleration in Tesla vehicles.

He cited a study conducted by Dr. Ronald A. Belt which found an issue with how the Tesla braking system interacts with the battery regeneration system. The result is that in some situations, pressing the brake causes the vehicle to accelerate, and the harder the driver presses the brake, the faster in accelerates.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said in January that it will investigate the complaints, although Tesla denies there is a problem. Einhorn said the more technologically complex products become with "intertwined hardware and software systems, the more difficult it is to design them for universal adoption in real-world large scale deployments.

He believes the combined software and hardware problem might be easily fixable and compared it to Boeing's issues with the 737 MAX. Einhorn added that a massive recall on a defective product can financially ruin a company and end management's career, but Tesla can't be trusted to do it on its own. He added that it will be up to the NHTSA to order a recall of Tesla vehicles with safety-related defects.

Einhorn also noted that there is speculation about Tesla joining the S&P 500, but he believes the company has been abusing the accounting rules.

"Through what appears to be sheer abuse of the accounting rules, TSLA has now contrived reported profits to make it technically eligible [to enter the S&P 500]," he wrote. In addition to its routinely questionable accounting maneuvers, Tesla appeared to defer employee compensation, depreciation expense on its new plant in China, and research and development spending."

He also called attention to the sharp increase in sales of regulatory credits in the automaker's latest earnings report. The company previously included a statement that it recognizes revenue on the sale of credits at the time control of the credits is transferred to the purchasing party.

However, Tesla sharply increased its recognition of regulatory credits sharply in the first and second quarters. Einhorn said that in the past, Tesla received cash for sales of regulatory credits, but this year they have "piled up in accounts receivable."

Further, he said Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) is the company's primary customer for those credits, and Tesla's recognition of the revenue from those credits isn't consistent with Fiat Chrysler's recognition of expenses for those credits. He questions whether Tesla's accounting and the way it handles the transfer of regulatory credits and payment for them conform to GAAP accounting.

"We suspect that TSLA changed its accounting policy during a non-audited quarter to manipulate eligibility in the S&P 500 index," Einhorn wrote. "The consensus is that S&P will add TSLA to the S&P 500 index at the next opportunity with a large weighting, forcing millions of passive investors to sell the other 499 stocks to make room for TSLA at whatever the price du jour. We think the S&P 500 Index Committee has a tough decision to make as to how to respond to being gamed like this."

From: Einhorn’s Greenlight Hedge Funds Lose 5% in June, Extending Drop

"Einhorn’s value-oriented investment strategy has largely gone against market trends in recent years. He’s still recovering from losses that started in 2015, when his main fund fell 20%, and deepened with a record 34% decline three years later.

At the end of May, there was a short-lived pivot toward beaten-down shares as recovery bets mounted. That fizzled in June, with growth stocks again climbing and value losing ground.

Greenlight managed $2.6 billion as of Jan. 1, down from $12 billion at its peak."


Simple Investing Rule I Follow:

Don't bet against a guy landing rockets on barges.

 

[Krugerrand]

I know just the place, paging @Krugerrand.

No.

If anybody thinks I’m falling for a sappy post by some dude named Jack, who’s been featured in a handful of only slightly entertaining memes, you’re out of cotton pickin’ mind.