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OK. Don't want to hijack this thread but with all the talk of retirements, what's your retirement number?

I have like 3 different numbers.

Base number is 3.5 million which includes 1.5 million that will go into a mixture of dividend based investments to generate some stable income to cover fixed expenses and the other 2 million wil go towards a lake home, a sizable boat(big enough to where I feel comfortable taking it down the west coast) and expenses that are not fixed.

Next level up is 6 million with 2 million going towards dividend income for fixed expenses and 4 million to upgrade that lake home and boat. Maybe buy a condo in a 2nd state to get out of seattle during the winters.

High number is 10 million which includes all of the above but living more lavishly, that 2nd home condo turns into a house, and donating/giving away some of the money.

I absolutely could do lower than 3.5 million if my investments didn't turn out the way I need them to. I could pretty easily manage with 1.5 million. I actually don't really get that hot and bothered by lavish things and/or excess. But I'm already above my base case number, though as I mentioned in a post earlier, half of my wealth is tied up in options with my current company so I won't be retiring until I'm about 39-40 yrs old regardless of what tesla stock does over the next 3 years
 
I need some hand holding. After Q2 earnings I said I wouldn't sell anything until after S&P500 inclusion. Now we also have the split at the end of the month. I need to retire at the end of the year. I am willing to sell 1/3 of my shares to do it. I could sell now and do ok, but if we go to 2500 or 3000 things get really good. I'm freaking out a little because if it goes back down before I sell, then I'm screwed. My anxiety level is at a 10. There is no way the SP is lower than this in a month... right?!? Excuse me while I go breathe in a brown paper bag.... :(
I've sold 70-75% of my TSLA to finance my retirement (at 50), and to create another 50% salary for my wife. This was at prices between $380-$900, and I haven't regret it. I've been living stress free for months, and what's left is likely to be enough to finance my (younger) brother's retirement soon. Difference may be that I've had my share of the toys(few Porsche's and Tesla) before all of this, and I'm very content with simple life, no dreams of islands or jet-setting around the world.

In situations like yours where there is high level of uncertainty, and either decision can turn out to be wrong, I found that I sleep most soundly by doing selling in portions, 5-10-15% at one price, etc... It robbed me of the opportunity to make it big, but it locks some certainty, so that I can stay calm trough periods of downdrafts.

One technique that helps me make decisions is to think unthinkable - how would I feel with TSLA at $700 at year end? Because those, and worse I've experienced already with Tesla trough last 5 years of owning the stock, and that is while being leveraged. And hence another possible difference, I have so many scars from owning TSLA too aggressively (2015-2018 mostly) that my risk appetite is lower. Admittedly, TSLA stock is different beast nowadays, so my experience is more likely to be one of the person bitten by a snake and being afraid of the lizard... Yet, are we sure this is a lizard? My last sale was after Elon said that stock price was too high, as I couldn't go trough drama anymore. The rest I own is super long term, other than buying out my bro from the slavery...
 
One more thing. Ultium Motors would have 200k Federal EV credits.

Volvo and Polestar each get 200k Federal EV credits since they have different tax ID numbers.

They can have make a deal where GM buys CARB/CAFE credits from Ultium Motors at 50% face value for the next 20 years. Or until GM goes bankrupt.

So if Tesla were to spin-off a company called "Cybertruck Motors" the new company would receive 200K Federal EV tax credits?

Sounds good to me!
 
HW4 samples in Q4 2020, mass production in Q4 2021:

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/ibu5md/tesla_nextgen_7nm_chip_will_be_produced_by_tsmc/


It is reported in the industry that the new high-performance computing (HPC) chip jointly developed by the global IC design leader Broadcom and the electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla (Tesla) will be produced using TSMC’s 7nm advanced process and integrated with TSMC System-on-Wafer (SoW) advanced packaging technology for InFO (InFO) system is expected to start production in the fourth quarter, with an initial production scale of about 2,000 wafers.

Production of the new chips will begin in the fourth quarter, with an initial production of about 2,000 wafers, and it is expected to enter full mass production after the fourth quarter of next year.

It is understood that the HPC chip created by Broadcom for Tesla will become the core computing special application chip (ASIC) for Tesla electric vehicles in the future, which can be used to control and support advanced driving assistance systems, electric vehicle power transmission, and car entertainment. The four major application areas of automotive electronics such as systems and car body electronic components will further support the real-time computing required for self-driving cars. The HPC chip jointly developed by Broadcom and Tesla should be an important cooperation project from electric vehicles to self-driving cars.
 
One thing nobody has mentioned yet regarding retirement is supposedly you can sell 4% of your total stock equity each year and you will never run out of money in your account during a long retirement. They ran backtracking models for various entry points and long time periods. Of course, that was for the S&P 500, not an extremely volatile name like TSLA. Anyway, applying this plan to TSLA means one can sell $40K per $1M of TSLA stock per year.

I use a diverse portfolio of dividend-paying REITs (yes some divvies are suspended due to COVID-19 but all of mine have enough runway to survive for an extended period), and some closed-end funds that own ~45% leveraged bank preferred stock portfolios (e.g. FFC return = ~7.3%) instead of an allocation to "Bonds" that pay almost nothing.

My plan is to withdraw (instead of DRIP) our REIT dividends to pay some bills and withdraw 1-4% annually to cover the rest. We're fortunate because we have already paid off our Silicon Valley home mortgage. The cost of housing here is by far the highest living expense. We are debt-free except for the remaining balance on our Model 3 auto loan. We also have a steady stream of monthly property management fees that is easy to maintain during retirement without much effort, and my wife started collecting some SocSec.

None of the above is advice since everyone's situation is different and I'm not licensed to give financial advice.
 
Goodmorning everyone, Frankfurt already at +2.9% :)

Macros also not negative, another day at the races?

Who knows? There is almost certainly some buying pressure left this week. When it will come is anyone's guess. i wouldn't look towards Frankfurt for the answer though. I think you will find that +2.9% is just the amount to get it roughly equal to the NASDAQ closing price today.
 
Who knows? There is almost certainly some buying pressure left this week. When it will come is anyone's guess. i wouldn't look towards Frankfurt for the answer though. I think you will find that +2.9% is just the amount to get it roughly equal to the NASDAQ closing price today.
Oh I know how useless it is staring at that particular ticker but it’s the only one moving at the moment ;)
 

Lol I have FSD on a 2016 Model S, so I’ve been waiting for a looong time to get my HW3 install date. In fact, it finally got done by the Service Center two weeks ago.

Despite Neroden’s (in)famous protestations I’m happy to report the Service Center service was excellent and efficient, with most of communication occurring via app. Really very good. Progress!

Also, if HW4 comes up in a year, hopefully that makes me eligible for the upgrade to that chip too...
 
I continue to be bullish on Tesla for the following reasons:
I looked back and my first Tesla investment began in 2014. I believe it was around that time when I had a conversation with my cousin's husband who worked at SpaceX. He told me he worked on getting all of the different hardware to "talk" to each other. The hard part was that after working long hours to get everything to work he'd have to almost do it all over again because so many of the parts had been upgraded.

This surprised me because I assumed the same version of rocket kept being used for launches and he insisted the improvements were ongoing and happened at breakneck speeds. "It's practically a new rocket every few weeks!"

This was a clear sign to me that Elon Musk operated at a different level. Specifically his pace of innovation far outpaced anyone else and this was a strong moat and competitive advantage that I saw for Musk-led companies.

Over time and with the introduction of the model s and then the model x I saw that Tesla was producing performance vehicles jam-packed with technology. Technology and innovation was a soft spot that I saw in the auto industry. I was always disappointed with the technology in vehicles and the molasses-slow micro improvements in performance.

Years later I learned the number one and two companies that engineering students wanted to work at was SpaceX and Tesla.
Elon Musk's Tesla, SpaceX top list of most attractive employers for engineering students
This is the same "brain drain" that I researched with a college professor at USC. His hypothesis was that when companies like Google are recruiting the top graduates every year they cannot help but innovate at a faster rate than the competition. Furthermore the competition is left hiring the "leftovers". This is another competitive advantage.

China and Europe both have worked on policies to phase out ICE engines by 2040. China's All In On Electric Vehicles: Here's How That Will Accelerate Sales In Other Nations.

China and Europe had 2019 auto sales of roughly 20M and 15M new vehicles. Bottom line here is that Tesla has plenty of room to grow.

Lastly I had hours long discussions with a relative who initially did not believe in Tesla or Musk and the end result of these discussions led him to not only invest in Tesla, but he now works for Tesla in the energy side of the business. He can't divulge information, but he is maxed out on the employee stock purchase program. Nuff said.

And we aren't even getting into how boring company and robotaxi will be disruptive and lead to exponential growth in valuation.

As I continue to read every post on this forum and read any Tesla related news I am left feeling confident that Tesla is on the right path and an ideal investment for the foreseeable future.

Tl;Dr: I'm buying what Elon's selling.

Thanks for this. Out of curiosity, what’s your thesis on how Boring Company evolves in the future and how it impacts Tesla?
 
Lol I have FSD on a 2016 Model S, so I’ve been waiting for a looong time to get my HW3 install date. In fact, it finally got done by the Service Center two weeks ago.

Despite Neroden’s (in)famous protestations I’m happy to report the Service Center service was excellent and efficient, with most of communication occurring via app. Really very good. Progress!

Also, if HW4 comes up in a year, hopefully that makes me eligible for the upgrade to that chip too...

Yep you may as well go straight to HW4...

I'm already on HW3 .. no HW4 for me...
 
To celebrate the latest milestone in my TSLA investment I just reserved a Model Y for Europe. Production will start early 2021 it says.

I have never bought a new car before and have some remorse because I will have to sell some TSLA shares to fund it...

But then I also want my family to travel in the safest car there is. And YOLO!

It is the base version at sale currently in Europe: long range, all drive, white. If my investment passes some more milestones then I will upgrade it to a blue Performance, mainly because I think the black rims look dope on the Y!
 

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