Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

At least in the US, if you donate the shares of stock, and not sell, pay the taxes and then donate, both the charity and you are much better off.

The charity gets the full value of the donated shares (any charity worth its salt has a policy that they immediately sell any stock that they receive - not taking any market risk). You get the full value of the stock as a charitable donation (subject to your income and carryover rules) and you don't have to pay any capital gains taxes. In addition, if the person is donating 10,000 shares (worth today $20M) then most probably they would be over the estate tax limit and save additional potential estate tax. If you are in a high tax bracket, this could mean that not only does the charity receive the full value of the stock donation, but you could be saving 40% or more in future estate taxes, as well as getting federal and state income tax deductions (current limit is 30% of AGI if contribution is securities and not cash, with carryover allowed for 5 years). If you are donating and have large pretax IRAs, this would be a very good time to convert to a Roth IRA, since you can shield a good portion of the income tax you would have to pay with the tax deduction from the contribution.

Tax accountants and other experts, please correct me or make additional comments.

I know, but he preferred to do it this way, don't know the details:

 

[Tslynk67]

To be clear, my take on the mouse picture was from the perspective of a short seller. Try to short TSLA (i.e., take the cheese) pre-split and get burned...and that’s currently on-going. After the split, and naked shorting with synthetic shares is exposed, I’m sure the dust will settle and shorts will suit up (using a helmet, to reference that part of the picture) and try again, but...it still won’t matter. There are no precautions that will make shorting TSLA a wise move into the future. Quite the contrary.

However, if Elon truly was referencing himself in that picture then...I’m completely lost on the meaning. Getting married again maybe??

Hopefully it’s this and not another #FundingSecured

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Hopefully it’s this and not another #FundingSecured

Secured.. post split? Haha

 

[Steve m]

The Rolling Naked Tesla Short

Also invite you to consider that over 100,000 2,000 08/28 calls exchanged hands on Thursday, with open int barely moving day over day.

Lets consider these... How many shares were involved? What long term effect will these have?

 

[EV forever]

Wow - folks here seem to be in a prickly mood today. Just scanned through the last few pages - all those arguments over stock split vs stock dividend effect on naked shorting, investors vs traders......

A person can be both investor and a trader - I know where my portfolio would be with only a long term hold strategy - still with 300 shares bought in 2014/15 instead of the portfolio containing more than 5X of that number. Those were obtained via trading options - balancing long term hold with some trading keeps things interesting. But I am still an investor since I haven't sold any of my stock holdings since 2014. And my strategy of selling the options in October may work or may disintegrate - its fine either way. Most of my plans don't work as anticipated and will change it as we get closer to those dates.

Take a deep breath, have a few beers and celebrate - an year back around this time TSLA SP was $220, today it is almost $2050! Sometimes I really have trouble believing this when I log in to my portfolio

 

[CorneliusXX]

If you focus only on the last few weeks, the rise of the SP after the split announcement looks bizarre, and is leading us to some fanciful explanations.

But widen the lens to see all of 2020. The SP really broke through a multi-year drought in Q1 as investors finally started believing in the Tesla story. The SP was rising fast In Q1, and was on a trajectory that could have taken it to 2000 in Q2.

But then Covid hits, Fremont shuts down, and the SP rise is halted.

Until July 2. When the P&D report is released showing that Covid hadn’t really slowed Tesla down. Boom, the meteoric rise that had started pre-Covid resumes.

When the SP hit the nice round 1500, there was a very brief pause for profit taking and consolidation.

The announcement of the split may have accomplished nothing more magical than ending the brief consolidation, allowing the continuation of a meteoric trajectory that really started in Jan-Feb.

If this is what’s going on, the question then is: what stops the 2020 meteoric trajectory? Unless there is a really adverse macro development or adverse Tesla-specific development, this rise may continue for some time, and really has very little to do with the split, potential S&P inclusion or Battery Day.

It’s really just about Tesla starting to achieve such obvious profitability and construction growth, that overall investor sentiment flipped this year from the five-year darkness of investor perception.

It is completely possible that your scenario is correct and this is just the continuation of the revaluation of Tesla. But the higher the stock price goes in the short term the lower the likelihood of this being the prime mover of the stock. If the price settles down shortly then perhaps you are right but if next week is anything like last week it will be difficult to believe there is not some sort of market dynamic applying a squeeze.

Just because Tesla made a little profit this year shouldn't, by itself, cause a 10x increase in the price when it was already a $35b company. Even if market sentiment has clearly improved, there is still inherent risk in buying a company with 50% growth rates when it is priced as richly as it is getting now. What was an absolute no-brainer at $35b requires a little more thought at $350b.

 

[Steve m]

Is this the investors thread or the speculators thread?

I ask this because if you are flipping options you ain't investing you are speculating.

 

[Steve m]

And if you are speculating and injecting conspiracy theories then don't be surprised when I laugh at you.

 

[Green Pete]

Alameda/freemont issued preemptive evacuation warnings because of the SCU Fire and the potential for evacuation routes being blocked by fires.

Unfortunetly the alert system just tells you to look up the evac map and all the maps I found were completely useless. So I'm not sure if the evacuation covers Tesla freemont.

 

[Tslynk67]

Other options:
Hedging:
Well, if I had sold hedged calls at 2100 (or above) and the stock was hanging at 2080, I'd think about selling those share. Likewise, if I were holding 2100 (or higher) calls, I might sell to close thus removing the need to hedge, if repurchased by MMs.

If I also had sold 2050 (or above) I had hedged, I might just go for a dump of shares to reduce exposure.

Could also short shares to drive it down, but that implies I didn't hedge to begin with. No need to naked short, I could just borrow and buy them back in 10 minutes.

Plain old fashion manipulation:
Alternatively, volume from 3:30 drop to 2050 was around 900k shares, very similar to the 12:00 jump up from 2050.
One could

• buy calls and sell puts
• bulk buy to drive up the price
• sell calls and buy puts
• bulk sell to drop the price
  
• close all positions

No shorting needed.

Indeed - 12AM, Market Monkey wants to cream a bit more from the option-jockeys. Buy 1m shares to pump the stock into the $2190's, lots of people by c2050 and c2100's, expecting it to rise more, existing call holders, hold...

Then, just before close, dump those same shares - likely profitably, too, crashing the SP, killing the calls, lots of profit, no shorting.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Alameda/freemont issued preemptive evacuation warnings because of the SCU Fire and the potential for evacuation routes being blocked by fires.

Unfortunetly the alert system just tells you to look up the evac map and all the maps I found were completely useless. So I'm not sure if the evacuation covers Tesla freemont.

Evacuation orders East of Mission Boulevard, does not cover Tesla Factory.

Link to map: https://nifc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/V...9d&extent=-123.2395,36.6849,-119.5618,38.1032

Red is mandatory evacuation order, yellow means standby/be prepared to leave on a moment’s notice.

This is the 2nd largest fire in California history

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Ok so this is a stretch, but a little Google sleuthing turned up this 2007 article.

Nanowire battery can hold 10 times the charge of existing lithium-ion battery

Lead author Yi Cui founded Amprius Technology Home.
Guess where Amprius headquarters is?

1180 Page Ave., Fremont, CA

Across the street from Tesla Corporate Offices. Coincidence?

Good find. There are two similar technologies:

1. nanowire supercapacitors - this is what the Tesla Accessories and News | TESMANIAN article I linked to above was suggesting.
2. nanowire anode - this is what Amprius Technology has developed.

Tesla (Jeff Dahn) has been working on lithium metal anodeless technology, but that seems still a few years away from production. Nanowire silicon anode might be a step towards this. Also Amprius Technology has developed a continuous production method for silicon nanowires on substrate, this might be usable for production of nanowire supercapacitors.

This is all very complicated, there are lots of things that Tesla might be doing, we will learn which of these they are doing on Battery Day.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Does anyone knows how RNA microfactories actually work? what technology and what know how are they using for it? Can there be some synergy to nano tubes?

Not in detail, but the technology is very different. So probably no synergy.

 

[kanweg]

I don’t think that the nanowire are for capacitors. Elon said in this interview with the Third Row People that capacitors were unnecessary.

 

[jerry33]

1. Battery day may provide some boost to SP in the week after Sept 22. I am saying 'may' because it is not always that MMM recognizes the value immediately

Would love to hear what folks think of this strategy and reasoning.

My expectation is that Battery Day will go right over the heads of the analysts just as Investor Day did. Analysts only see and look at the numbers--the current crop doesn't even seem to accept them--and they never see the vision (as always, with an exception or two). Other than that, it sounds pretty reasonable.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Amazing thing about Tesla/TSLA is how little the average person (even smart people) knows about the company. We are spoiled here. This website is literally worth billions of dollars of stock appreciation gains. Not a joke. There is no other stock with such an intelligent, knowledgeable group of investors that willingly share their knowledge for free. Seriously this is a once in a lifetime stock and online presence and I thank you. I would not have had the conviction and confidence in this company without you. To quote Napoleon Dynamite, you have made all my wildest dreams come true.

Another coworker I am working with yesterday says he is not buying the stock because he thinks it’s a bubble. He has been following the stock price for months now but thinks Tesla is just another regular car company...

 

[jamaatta]

Good find. There are two similar technologies:

2. nanowire anode - this is what Amprius Technology has developed.

Tesla (Jeff Dahn) has been working on lithium metal anodeless technology, but that seems still a few years away from production. Nanowire silicon anode might be a step towards this. Also Amprius Technology has developed a continuous production method for silicon nanowires on substrate, this might be usable for production of nanowire supercapacitors.

This is a really interesting piece of information.

Excerpt from their web site:

"Developed on a patented technology platform that includes a 100% silicon nanowire anode, Amprius Technologies batteries provide significantly more energy and power with less weight and volume than any other lithium-ion battery technology. Amprius Technologies batteries provide up to 50% higher energy density than standard lithium ion batteries with carbon anodes."

And:

"The company has developed new manufacturing methods for producing 100% silicon anodes. Setting a precedent for scalable silicon anode production, Amprius Technologies developed a unique manufacturing tool that employs a multi-step deposition process to grow 3D structures on a moving foil in a roll-to-roll system."


About

I checked that Amprius is situated just on the backyard of Tesla Fremont. Or actually their adress is in the very same building with Tesla..!?

"Contact Amprius Technologies

Headquarters:
1180 Page Avenue
Fremont, CA 94538 USA"

 

[jerry33]

I thought about the theory of naked shorts would be forced to cover.

But, even if that’s true, they could just borrow shares for the weekend and make the balance legitimate shorts, right?

Unless, the balance is larger than shares available to borrow?

I don't think so because all that would do is shift who is responsible the imaginary shares. Just as in musical chairs, everyone is fine until the call to sit down occurs. (assuming it's true of course).

 

[CaliBear1]

Yep. I trot out this great photoshop (not mine, kudos to its creator) of a refreshed S featuring elements of the The Roadster 2.0 every time this issue is raised. I think it's beautiful and does nothing to damage the timeless lines of Franz's design. It would be an instant success. Sign me up!

The S is still a very timeless car IMHO, but wouldn't be surprised to see s/x with Roadster 2 front and rear lights / bumpers

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Tesla is unusual in that there are four (maybe five) stock moving events in quick succession: split, S&P, battery day, P&D and Q3 results. Any one of those could cause a significant spike in the share price, each could be "buy the rumor, sell the news".

So I think the share price will be really volatile with perhaps one or more spikes to greater than $600 ( > $3000 pre-split).

So don't get caught out and plan your strategies for what to do if there is a major spike.