Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

I can explain everything about the recent drop. Musk was disappointed that we skipped right over $420 so he convinced the board to allow a $5B capital raise "at market prices" and then flooded the market with new shares to achieve $420. As we can see he overshot, but that simply gave investors two chances to collect their $420 shares.

 

[dww12]

Done. In the money call Jan '22.

On sale!

Thanks, got a Jan 22 320 for $190. Hopefully it makes up for the Sept 4 480 I bought yesterday that basically went to 0.

 

[StealthP3D]

I reread your post, and you are right. It indeed mentions theory. My bad for not reading carefully enough. Thank you for clarifying.

Keep in mind, an analysis doesn't have to be labeled "theory" for it to be a theory. If you say, "The stock split is not forcing naked short sales to cover.", that is also a theory, at least until it is proven. This is true whether you state it as a fact (as above) or add a "I think" to the beginning.

I'm skeptical of all theories to varying degrees (because the very nature of a theory is it's unproven). However, some theories fit the known facts better than other theories. And this is where you and I disagree. I was rubbed the wrong way when you were dismissive of one theory while apparently being unaware that your view was also a theory (because it was unproven). Saying "I don't believe cats drink water" can be a theory. It would be disproven rather easily but it can still be a theory until it's disproven.

 

[Singuy]

I haven’t seen that video yet.
Wow, no matter how much love we have for Tesla, that is some insane speed. Have to hand it to them.

Good, it's going to need it since the nearest lucid service center from me is 2500 miles away.

 

[MaxPain]

It’s going to bounce so hard lmao seeing huge call sweeps

How did you see this?

 

[follow.johnny]

I can finally say I bought TSLA shares at $420! Woot woot

 

[StealthP3D]

I've been following this discussion closely and I find it very interesting. The way I understand it is that you and Artful Dodger presented a theory and Frank questioned it. There is no theory that Frank is bringing forward he is only questioning yours since there are no givens or hard facts that support your theory. I think that your theory is more than likely to be correct but it is almost impossible to prove it without a professional advice from someone on the "inside".

Frank is theorizing that our theory is wrong. It is every bit as much of a theory since neither scenario has been proven or disproven. At least not on this thread.

 

[mikevbf]

In theory, they've lost access to their biggest tool now, short selling due to the 'Uptick Rule' being in effect for the remainder of today and for tomorrow.

However, what we've learned in the past 3 weeks is that the LARGEST weapon that shortzes/hedgies have is to dump large number of options contracts, which in turn invokes automated selling by market maker's.

This can be done instantly, and even if no shares are available to borrow, due to Options Market Maker's exemption to the prohibition against short selling (SEC Regulation SHO).

In effect, hedgies can leverage naked short shares and dump the SP even with the uptick rule in effect. We've seen this during 3 other episodes with a similar setup earlier this year.

If enough of this happens, the stock price is high enough (420), they could just do another split to catch them out. Or am I just too focussed on that number again?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I can finally say I bought TSLA shares at $420! Woot woot

I was going to but then the order executed at $410 ....

 

[FYMR]

I have a lot to learn here. Never heard of an "Uptick Rule". The more I read this thread the more I realize how little I know. All interesting though.

 

[Big Time]

Bought 2 @ 415

 

[jpsgoneev]

and picked up 2 more at 408.97.
My dry powder is gone
I couldn't just spectate this.

Lol ... Fast Fingers if that was a market order!
Nicely done.

 

[Chocochip]

"worlds quickest production sedan" -- but I didn't think they were actually being produced just yet? Kinda putting the cart before the horse, doncha think? When Tesla does an official announcement of plaid the claim won't be true anymore.

Personally I don't really mind that claim, I believe there won't be significant differences between this beta and the production vehicle. We probably should welcome competition, as it will accelerate the advent of the Plaid.

 

[anthonyj]

Tesla has shortseller-19 antibodies, don’t worry. ‘Tis but a little cold

 

[traxila]

So we’re now trading at $427 from a pre market high of $540 yesterday morning (= $565 drop pre split). All that’s changed is that Tesla announced that they have the option to raise up to $5B at the share price of their choosing. Am I missing something here?

We went from a pre split 1370 all the way to an equivalent post split 2700 and all that changed was a split announcement.

I definitely missed something there, no doubt.

 

[humbaba]

Good, it's going to need it since the nearest lucid service center from me is 2500 miles away.

I actually feel for them -- and anyone else looking to get in on the EV market.

Tesla started at the high end in order to fund the low end. For anyone else to enter seriously they are looking at the high, mid and low ends.

low end: this just isn't going to work well as -- even after getting everything spun up -- profit margins will necessarily be slim and at the beginning there will be a lot of money spent without any return until after fully up for years.

mid range: while not as tight as trying to enter at the low end it still has costs and facing stiff competition from Tesla's offering. Outdoing ICE is quite possible, but new entrants will still have an uphill battle and legacy makers have the weight of sunk costs working against them.

high end: while it is relatively easy to outperform ICE in this realm, shooting for any titles is tough because Tesla was not content with having made the starter money on the high end and has kept pushing the limits. Musk obviously likes high performance and whether it is plaid model S or the new roadster it will be hard to keep any title, no matter how narrowly focused it is (nurburgring, best quarter mile, whatever).

 

[dww12]

So did the BofA price upgrade come at the peak bottom? I guess they got their buys in.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Thanks, got a Jan 22 320 for $190. Hopefully it makes up for the Sept 4 480 I bought yesterday that basically went to 0.

You got much better price, same day.
But... I also scooped up 25 shares at $419.

 

[elasalle]

Got up yesterday thinking Sept 18 CC at 600+ (post split) need to be managed - rolled. Looks like they will be safe (The 5B Cap raise helped) ... some more pennies

 

[vikings123]

It’s going to bounce so hard lmao seeing huge call sweeps

Prior to the drop I think I read on twitter that the 400 puts were getting bought. Have you subscribed to one of the option flow sites? If so which one?