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I know this sila nano doc has been posted a couple of times in the middle of last week's frenzy. But if you didn't have a chance to read it then this is a good way to spend a part of your labor day weekend. Or a Sunday evening for those not stateside.

Must read for those who what to get a birds eyeview of what's going to transpire in the next decade or so, in the batteries space.
 
...A good way to de-risk at this stage of the markets would be S&P 500 to Russel 2000 (which also has TSLA, although a lesser percentage)...

Interesting suggestions. However Tesla is not in the Russell 2000. It is in the Russell 1000, which includes the largest companies in the Russell 3000. The Russell 2000 includes the smallest companies in the Russell 3000.

barchart.com: Russell 1000 Index Chart, Components, Prices - Barchart.com

If Tesla continues to be excluded from the S&P 500, I'd expect more funds to make the Russell 1000 their benchmark. It better reflects the daily activity of market participants in large capitalization stocks.
 
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I know this sila nano doc has been posted a couple of times in the middle of last week's frenzy. But if you didn't have a chance to read it then this is a good way to spend a part of your labor day weekend. Or a Sunday evening for those not stateside.

Must read for those who what to get a birds eyeview of what's going to transpire in the next decade or so, in the batteries space.

Check out - The Limiting Factor videos ( https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIFn7ONIJHyC-lMnb7Fm_jw) - for battery tech deep dive.

(like Trip Chaudhary said -- learn your periodic tables to appreciate Battery day ;) )
 
Warning: anecdotal evidence but...

In the Swedish Tesla fb owners groups there is a lot of talk lately about “phantom braking” on the latest versions of the firmware in their Teslas. What happens is that the car slams the brakes on the highway scaring the driver and passengers and the traffic behind them. No accident yet fortunately.

Doesn’t seem to be similar widespread mentions of this in the national Tesla society forums (not on Facebook but a forum similar to this one), but a quick search on the Swedish forum I found some recent discussion threads mentioning that this has gotten worse since firmware 2020.32.x (I think the latest is .5). Some people are experiencing this often, others not so much it seems.

Two hypotheses:
1. This problem is greater in Europe or Scandinavia or Sweden because of something particular about the construction of roads here.
2. Experienced Tesla owners are more aware of that phantom braking can happen sometimes but have learned to counteract phantom braking and are not as surprised by it. Facebook groups are more populated by new owners while the Tesla society is more populated by long-term Tesla owners.

In any case I find this a bit worrying. Some of the stories I read on fb indicated that serious accidents on the highways were dangerously close due to phantom braking events. Something to look out for and hopefully that Tesla will prioritize fixing soon.
 
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I know this sila nano doc has been posted a couple of times in the middle of last week's frenzy. But if you didn't have a chance to read it then this is a good way to spend a part of your labor day weekend. Or a Sunday evening for those not stateside.

Must read for those who what to get a birds eyeview of what's going to transpire in the next decade or so, in the batteries space.
Thank you for posting this, I must have missed it when it was shared previously.

There's an executive summary which gives a very interesting overview, without requiring that the reader be a chemist (which I'm not - I'm going to have trouble on B-Day).
 
Warning: anecdotal evidence but...

In the Swedish Tesla fb owners groups there is a lot of talk lately about “phantom braking” on the latest versions of the firmware in their Teslas. What happens is that the car slams the brakes on the highway scaring the driver and passengers and the traffic behind them. No accident yet fortunately.

Doesn’t seem to be similar widespread mentions of this in the national Tesla society forums (not on Facebook but a forum similar to this one), but a quick search on the Swedish forum I found some recent discussion threads mentioning that this has gotten worse since firmware 2020.32.x (I think the latest is .5). Some people are experiencing this often, others not so much it seems.

Two hypotheses:
1. This problem is greater in Europe or Scandinavia or Sweden because of something particular about the construction of roads here.
2. Experienced Tesla owners are more aware of that phantom braking can happen sometimes but have learned to counteract phantom braking and are not as surprised by it. Facebook groups are more populated by new owners while the Tesla society is more populated by long-term Tesla owners.

In any case I find this a bit worrying. Some of the stories I read on fb indicated that serious accidents on the highways were dangerously close due to phantom braking events. Something to look out for and hopefully that Tesla will prioritize fixing soon.

There is no doubt in my mind that phantom braking is a huge issue.

I assume that this is a known issue for Tesla and that it is one of the problems that are dealt with in the promised rebuild.

Speaking of the rebuild, I expect large improvements overall. And if not then this whole FSD thing is pretty much guaranteed vapourware for the next five years minimum.
 
New rule -
Anytime anyone on this thread mentions panel gaps again, the cat people on this group get to buy 1 share of TSLA
For those of us without cats, we get to buy 2 shares :D

(Owning an early 2018 Model 3 - never been bothered about panel gaps. After all the hoopla about paned gaps in the media, we checked our car again and compared it to our Honda Clarity FCV. The panel gaps on the Clarity are way worse than anything on the Model 3. Mind you, the Clarity FCV is supposed to be premium everything - and Honda has what, a million years of experience building cars. But hey, that is just me - I am happy and loving my Model 3 - including the snazzy multicoat red paint, which also in my eyes is perfect)
 
The problem with this analysis is that it presumes that the market was correctly valuing TSLA at your "starting point". I'm pretty sure 12 months ago TSLA was very significantly undervalued by the market.
Any point in time reference is arbitrary, but that's the point I was trying to make. There can be huge swings in market cap regardless of company performance due to a myriad of factors outside their control. The market price doubling or halving because of these factors due to sentiment is not unreasonable in the short term.

Perhaps it's just my interpretation of all the disagrees received by any comment that mentions stock prices can drop within a reasonable range of volatility that I find worrisome. It can build up false expectations of certainty around stock price movements in the short term.

Don't get me wrong, I've got a wildly irresponsible percentage of my net worth in Tesla and use some leverage to increase my returns because I've got high conviction that Tesla will still be worth many multiples of its current market cap in 5-10 years. But there are clearly scenarios where the stock price could halve before going on to greater heights and we as investors need to be positioned to handle that.
 
New rule -
Anytime anyone on this thread mentions panel gaps again, the cat people on this group get to buy 1 share of TSLA
For those of us without cats, we get to buy 2 shares :D

(Owning an early 2018 Model 3 - never been bothered about panel gaps. After all the hoopla about paned gaps in the media, we checked our car again and compared it to our Honda Clarity FCV. The panel gaps on the Clarity are way worse than anything on the Model 3. Mind you, the Clarity FCV is supposed to be premium everything - and Honda has what, a million years of experience building cars. But hey, that is just me - I am happy and loving my Model 3 - including the snazzy multicoat red paint, which also in my eyes is perfect)
I think the last time people cared about panel gaps on anything other than the Tesla was way back in the days of the ball bearing commercials. FWIW, both the 2013 and the 2020 don't have any panel gaps, though I suppose you could find some with sensitive enough measuring devices.
 
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Warning: anecdotal evidence but...

In the Swedish Tesla fb owners groups there is a lot of talk lately about “phantom braking” on the latest versions of the firmware in their Teslas. What happens is that the car slams the brakes on the highway scaring the driver and passengers and the traffic behind them. No accident yet fortunately.

Doesn’t seem to be similar widespread mentions of this in the national Tesla society forums (not on Facebook but a forum similar to this one), but a quick search on the Swedish forum I found some recent discussion threads mentioning that this has gotten worse since firmware 2020.32.x (I think the latest is .5). Some people are experiencing this often, others not so much it seems.

Two hypotheses:
1. This problem is greater in Europe or Scandinavia or Sweden because of something particular about the construction of roads here.
2. Experienced Tesla owners are more aware of that phantom braking can happen sometimes but have learned to counteract phantom braking and are not as surprised by it. Facebook groups are more populated by new owners while the Tesla society is more populated by long-term Tesla owners.

In any case I find this a bit worrying. Some of the stories I read on fb indicated that serious accidents on the highways were dangerously close due to phantom braking events. Something to look out for and hopefully that Tesla will prioritize fixing soon.
Had this happen last month in Texas. Collision warning setting?? set to “early”.
 
There is no doubt in my mind that phantom braking is a huge issue.

I assume that this is a known issue for Tesla and that it is one of the problems that are dealt with in the promised rebuild.

It's not a Tesla problem- it's an "anybody that uses radar" problem...

There's other car makers where it's much worse- to the point they've had to do mandatory recalls and faced class action lawsuits.


I do expect the re-write to help...it might help a little, it might help a lot, we'll have to wait and see... but it's unclear it can ever be "fixed" entirely under the current range of sensors consumer cars are using (again not specific just to Tesla).


That said- I'm not aware of any accidents (where AP was being used someplace it's intended to be) caused by this.

Also (getting far afield now) there's been at lease 1 previous thread where numerous owners found through testing it happens, on a tesla specifically, far less often if you have your emergency brake warning set to medium or late rather than early.

And lastly, pretty much every firmware update you've got roughly equal numbers of folks posting on the relevant forums who are SURE that the new firmware:

Made their car faster
Made their car slower
Increased phantom braking
Reduced phantom braking
Increased regen
Reduced regen
Increased their reported range
Decreased their reported range
Made Dashcam/Sentry more reliable
Made Dashcam/Sentry less reliable


and so on...
 
There is no doubt in my mind that phantom braking is was a huge issue.
FTFY

With fleet size growing exponentially, any problem would appear to be worsening in online forums.
My own experience is phantom braking has been steadily improving, and had got so much better over the past year or so.
It used to brake for overhead bridges etc, but with latest few releases I never experienced those at the same places.
 
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