Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BlindPass]

The million mile battery hype is kind of hilarious to me.

I mean, the media and most of the analysts don't believe in autonomy, so why do they even care about a million mile battery? It has quite little value without autonomous robotaxis.

Little value without Robo? Robo taxis isn’t that much of the Million mile battery value.

The million mile battery converts Tesla from being an EV company to an energy storage company. V2G, Energy arbitrage, and FinTech/blockchain become Tesla’s domain. It’s just as needed as Dojo/AI for Tesla to be the preeminent IoT super power.

 

[pz1975]

Probably because Million Mile Battery is a catchy phrase they can use as click bait 1 kazillion times. I'm tired of hearing it, especially with regards to Sep 22.

If robotaxis happen, obviously the MMB concept is crucial.

The Milton Mile Battery, on the other hand, keeps the headlights and radio on while a vehicle rolls downhill.

 

[StealthP3D]

Interesting how the stock is going to move like crazy for an event talking about 2022 technology

It's not a 2022 technology, I'm sure it's here today - it's current technology, Tesla just needs a couple more facilities building them and in much larger volumes. It does take time to ramp into seriously high volumes and you wouldn't want to ramp too quickly because a slower ramp manages risk that things need to be tweaked. Whenever you go into a new product/technology you don't want to crank out billions of them before you know it's actually a liability for an unknown reason. Risk management is good thing.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Look, I don’t know if Elon reads this thread, but if TSLA pops big on Tuesday, I’m going to preorder a Roadster. If it’s going to be big, just give me a sign Elon! Post a video, and wink once for yes, and twice for no on your Twitter.

Elon gave me a sign. Thanks, Papa. That wasn’t the sign I wanted, but it’s OK, these LEAPs are dated 2023. I can wait.

 

[sonofjorel]

Tomorrow is going to be such an exciting day! Anyone else expect to have trouble sleeping tonight and getting work done tomorrow? I expect many probably took the day off, though.

I would like to thank everyone here for their contributions. I didn’t start investing in TSLA until 2018 and without you all my portfolio wouldn’t be anywhere near where it currently is although I still have a long, long way to go to reach my goals. Mostly I would like to thank @StealthP3D for his invaluable insight. Your words of wisdom about Tesla, past investments, bringing a calm when it’s storming, and so much more is extremely appreciated!

 

[Jack6591]

It's not a 2022 technology, I'm sure it's here today - it's current technology, Tesla just needs a couple more facilities building them and in much larger volumes. It does take time to ramp into seriously high volumes and you wouldn't want to ramp too quickly because a slower ramp manages risk that things need to be tweaked. Whenever you go into a new product/technology you don't want to crank out billions of them before you know it's actually a liability for an unknown reason. Risk management is good thing.

Well reasoned analysis. The ability to think on your feet at critical junctures, is the mark of an astute business mind. You have my respect.

 

[jhm]

The battery tech unveiling is for the benefit of long-term investors. We'll be discussing it for years. Don't be surprised if the market can digest the information in the span of 24 hours.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, lithium supplies secured! Which probably means they have a nice nickel mine partnership to announce as well. I don't think the press or Tesla's competitors were anticipating this...

Jul 15:

Jul 25:

 

[Buckminster]

Elon : "These announcements that we're making tomorrow, that you have no clue about, will be going into production soon for semi and future models. However, it won't be in the current models until 2022 so don't stop buying those in the mean time"

There is an expectation here that the new batteries are going in M3/MY. I am not so sure. My thinking:

• I'm thinking the new cell will be a singular size
  • Fewer machines to design, more commonality, economies of scale
  • New technologies are inter-related and can't be easily added to 2070
  • This also avoids IP transfer to Pana etc.
• Rumour is that the new BFC is taller
  • Not compatible with existing M3/MY chassis
• Serious production is referring to fulfilling the needs of the CT, R2 & Semi which is serious production
  • Semi battery requirement could be big and imminent
  • M2 will require tons of batteries
  • TE products could also use the new cell immediately and acts as a great way to be able to flexibly increase battery demand (TE loses out if autos demand cannot be fulfilled)
• Potential benefits for taller battery
  • R2 could be single stack
  • Other platforms would allow the stack to be less than full length
    • Improved weight distribution
      • Better moment of inertia to improve handling
    • Footwells could be battery free
      • Lowers vehicle roofline height, reduced frontal area, improved range / smaller battery
      • This is a virtuous circle
• Getting batteries is the problem
  • Moving M3/MY to the BFC means switching off Pana etc.
  • Tesla have provided long term contracts
• Refresh of MS/MX could employ new batteries sooner than M3/MY

 

[Chunky Jr.]

My guess is that Kato will build roadrunner cells in limited quantity until giga Texas is online to crank them out in serious high volume.

 

[Green Pete]

Anyone else remember some event or tweet a few year back that Elon gave and then some companies stock started tanking and Elon had to say something to the effect of Tesla was still going to buy their batteries or something.

I think today's tweet could have been as simple as making sure not to damage a suppliers stock

 

[Tslynk67]

Yeah, they’re not gonna spin this at all (Benzinga):


Tesla Shares Down ~9% After Hours Following Elon Musk Tweets Previewing Several Points About Tuesday's Battery Day, Warned Of Shortages Of Battery Cells, Production Ramp Delay

Curious that there's a "delay" when no time-line has yet been given

 

[hobbes]

Regarding which new battery tech goes where - there was info from carsonight I think last week that GF Nevada has a new line that produces 2170s with an improved chemistry https://twitter.com/carsonight/status/1305332657622978560 (which doesn´t appear in the discussion here much). I would think those would be for updated S/X for now (while carsonight thinks they´ll be for Cyber Truck). Kato Road (likely tabless, dry cathode, cell-to-pack) for new products not on the market yet (different form factor, not as much proven as of now).

 

[Tslynk67]

I listen to the podcasts. Is there value-added to watch the video version?

He often shows spreadsheets and the like

 

[Dave EV]

Wow love that two finger pour...

Hm. One finger away from a "shocker" of a pour.

 

[Donatas]

Battery Day Drinking Game:

Pick one word, then take a drink of your choice every time Elon mentions it.

1. Lithium
2. Nickel
3. Density
4. Scale
5. Production


Who gets blasted first?

6. Order of magnitude
7. Alien

 

[Singuy]

I listen to the podcasts. Is there value-added to watch the video version?

Ever since he started youtube, the podcast is usually hours delayed before it's uploaded.

 

[Green Pete]

Also question... Has anyone who ordered short shorts recieved them? Serious question. Like are they waiting to ship until after the next short burn

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1308284091142266881?s=21

 

[Nurkbonis]

I'm gonna say maybe just put the phone down until after battery day.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1308284091142266881?s=21
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