Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

I think our speculation has gotten way off track due to this tweet induced AH nut punch.

The Panasonic relationship issue was sorted out after the 1Q19 bottleneck fiasco. Knowing how Elon works, it's all good moving forward. He doesn't compromise in a way that keeps Tesla beholden to a partner, especially after that partner tried to leverage production to renegotiate.

I don't see any way on Earth the gf1 relationship with Panasonic is today a hindrance to Tesla's plans. We shall see.

 

[dw4ngg]

I can play the bear.

Tesla investing more into battery production from other companies goes to show that.

1. The Tesla batteries is probably not some magical breakthrough in chemistry or manufacturing or else why would you want to use outdated tech? ->this will be answered on battery day

2. S3XY will not be getting any range bumps because apparently they are still using cells from other companies so the competition can catch up. And by using batteries from other companies, the cost/kg is not going to dramatically shift down at the pack level for Tesla's highest volume producers meaning margins wouldn't go as high as we expected. ->also will be answered on battery day

However these are some short term concerns for prematurely "selling the news", if Tesla disappoints.

answer to 1 is pretty obv if you’re running a biz; same for 2. Same answer to both. To keep making profits in the meantime

 

[mikevbf]

Michael F.?

That's one of only two questions in the top 10 I've upvoted. Great question, thanks!

Thank You. The question is now in the top 5.

 

[Prunesquallor]

With tacos?

Why Margaritas made with Teslaquila, of course...

THIS!! What’s wrong with you people?

 

[Prunesquallor]

2022 is literally next year. Elon is playing 15d chess as usual and wiping out the short term idiots asap

I don’t think "literally" means what you think it means.

 

[dc_h]

The LA Metro area:



From my look at the map there are ~40 open or in progress:
View attachment 590702

So a ~25% increase in sites.

I assume LA Metro is the Metro station, not LA metropolitan.

 

[Thekiwi]

I think our speculation has gotten way off track due to this tweet induced AH nut punch.

The Panasonic relationship issue was sorted out after the 1Q19 bottleneck fiasco. Knowing how Elon works, it's all good moving forward. He doesn't compromise in a way that keeps Tesla beholden to a partner, especially after that partner tried to leverage production to renegotiate.

I don't see any way on Earth the gf1 relationship with Panasonic is today a hindrance to Tesla's plans. We shall see.

I dont think Panasonic & GF1 are a hinderance to Tesla's plans - what I think is that they will soon be redundant within a few years. It's possible GF1 doesn't grow any bigger from here, unless all the lines get converted to "roadrunners" via some reorg of ownership.

 

[Thekiwi]

Apparently wall street (Factset) are now expecting 144k deliveries for Q3. I guess they are all following @Troy and his estimates:

"According to a survey of analysts by FactSet, Wall Street expects Tesla to report vehicle deliveries of 144,000 for the quarter. The estimates range from 123,000 to 190,000."

 

[Artful Dodger]

"GF3 may be building one of the world's largest Tesla super charging stations / Tesla Gigafactory 3" | Wu Wa

 

[Ameliorate]

Apparently wall street (Factset) are now expecting 144k deliveries for Q3. I guess they are all following @Troy and his estimates:

"According to a survey of analysts by FactSet, Wall Street expects Tesla to report vehicle deliveries of 144,000 for the quarter. The estimates range from 123,000 to 190,000."

190,000 I'm sorry what?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I hope they have someone with sock puppets to interpret what Elon says to the analysts.

 

[Singuy]

190,000 I'm sorry what?

Pretty sure Gordon revised his projections as the new not peak.

 

[Green Pete]

I don’t think "literally" means what you think it means.

They updated the definition of literally a few years back.
I'm being serious.

Dictionaries include definition of literally that isn't literal - CNN.

Maybe so people stop giving eachother annoying grammar lessons.

 

[EVCollies]

I don’t think "literally" means what you think it means.

That is inconceivable.

 

[mikevbf]

I hope that tomorrow Tesla shows it has similar view to Northvolt's aspirations which is to vertically integrate all the way to the mine. Here is a quote from an article on it:

"To pull this off, Northvolt has adopted a different business model than that of other automakers and battery manufacturers. Tesla, for example, currently buys ready-made battery cells from its partner Panasonic, while battery makers buy components like cathode materials from suppliers such as Umicore or BASF.

In contrast, Northvolt is bringing most of this long and complex supply chain in-house. It will deal directly with mining companies and refiners to buy raw materials; it will prepare its own cathode materials, assemble its own cells and battery modules, and recover materials from spent cells through its own recycling program. This vertical integration should help the company make cells with 60–70% lower CO2 emissions than equivalent batteries made in China, says Emma Nehrenheim, Northvolt’s chief environmental officer. China is the world’s current leader in battery production."

I believe Tesla does want to do this. it is hard to imagine how they can accomplish their growth goals without doing this. Achieving the closed loop is truly controlling their own destiny. However it is a monumental task which will take many years and huge investment.

 

[MC3OZ]

I dont think Panasonic & GF1 are a hinderance to Tesla's plans - what I think is that they will soon be redundant within a few years. It's possible GF1 doesn't grow any bigger from here, unless all the lines get converted to "roadrunners" via some reorg of ownership.

They can always use 2170s for Powerwalls and Powerpacks.
Longer term most vehicle batteries will be made at or near the vehicle factory.
I read Elon's tweet was getting Model 3/Y buyers off the fence.
If / when Model 3/Y are made with Roadrunners, they don't necessarily have to be cheaper or better.
IMO the best path is steady slow improvement, and slow steady price drops.

 

[JustMe]

They updated the definition of literally a few years back.
I'm being serious.

Dictionaries include definition of literally that isn't literal - CNN.

Maybe so people stop giving eachother annoying grammar lessons.
View attachment 590780

Maybe *this change was made* so *that* people *would* stop giving each other annoying grammar lessons.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

THIS!! What’s wrong with you people?

Wait.....I forget......does Teslaquila really exist? Can I buy it tomorrow?

 

[JustMe]

One more sleep until battery day

 

[scaesare]

They updated the definition of literally a few years back.
I'm being serious.

Dictionaries include definition of literally that isn't literal - CNN.

Maybe so people stop giving eachother annoying grammar lessons.
View attachment 590780