Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[HG Wells]

I always combine a stop loss with a buy order 7 points lower.
Worked the first time, but only that first time.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

All the stop loss's got wiped yesterday, so this dip isn't likely to rebound today, at least the way it did yesterday. Might be some FOMO in the last hour of the day but we're likely end the day around this level.

Congrats to everyone who is able to buy for getting a 6% discount on shares the day of Battery Day!

Stop losses getting wiped out yesterday shouldn’t have any bearing on the SP recovering today. Only means it’s going to be harder to push stock down since there isn’t as many stop losses to trigger. If anything, it’ll help SP recover sooner bc there is confidence in dips being bought and less likely off dips not being bought

 

[jerry33]

Pfft! How about (in 2023) the owner of that 2013 S85 visits a Tesla mobile bty swap station (beep-beep), and drives out with a car that charges at 250 kW (effectively halving the time spent at a Supercharger)?

Wouldn't that be nice. I actually asked about a new battery and was told it would have the same limitations, so no gain there. That (and the new safety features) are why I'm driving an X.

 

[S3XY]

Nah I agree with those who thinks Elon is trying to calm suppliers and preventing some osbourne. It's not his nature to ease hype. He said the word insane like 3 times the last week, and blow your mind during the earnings report. Not only that he said it still blows his mind and he knows what it is. I don't know about you but that's peak hype.

I would think that Elon has (or will) spoken to the suppliers directly. Why would he let them know via tweet what could easily and clearly be said directly to avoid a misunderstanding?

 

[Singuy]

Right now
NKLA is +4%
TSLA is -6%

Stock Market is really out of this world

Because the bear case is that Semi wouldn't reach volume production at least 2022 plus Elon time. Investors see this as good news for Tesla's competitors. Too bad it's the wrong conclusion again and probably wrote Tesla off way too prematurely.

Nio and Xpeng are all green today.

 

[Artful Dodger]

But then I realized: the very thing that makes the tabless cell such a great performer in terms of power, would also make it a great performer for thermal management.

Lol, you need to watch more Jordan Giesige | "The Limiting Factor" on Youtube. This was discussed months ago.

 

[Singuy]

I would think that Elon has (or will) spoken to the suppliers directly. Why would he let them know via tweet what could easily and clearly be said directly to avoid a misunderstanding?

Because people like analysts and retail investors for those companies are not in the know, so you wouldn't want them to prematurely price in or subtract things that has a false misconception.

 

[smorgasbord]

And so it looks like the impact of Battery Day on investors will be in the same vein as Autonomy Day. IIRC, I got a bunch of dislikes when saying that months ago, but it's already started. Heck, even here there were several posts speculating that the new tech would be in Model Ys this year.

Remember, Tesla showed great technology potential in April 2019, but near the end of the session when the analysts asked Musk about the business model for robo-taxis he didn't have a crisp answer and so the stock tanked. And most people to this day (not here of course) do not think Tesla is ahead of anyone in terms of getting to actual practical autonomy - some still think Tesla is near last. And, remember, this was even with Musk saying that the new FSD computer chip was already in production vehicles and that free upgrades to prior vehicles were on the way. So, no Osborning there.

And now we have Battery Day. History won't repeat, but we're already seeing it rhyming. The "million mile" stuff has been perverted by know-nothing analysts to be anything from being able to charge a million times to driving a million miles on a single charge. And even for the few that get it right, it's discounted because CATL has already announced such a thing themselves, so Tesla is merely "catching up."

If we were to analyze based on First Principles, what is Musk's intent with Battery Day? It's certainly not about stock price pumping. It's not about getting more people to buy Tesla vehicles. With Autonomy Day, I believe Musk was intending to show the world that Tesla was on the right track, and to get others on that track as well. In that regard, Autonomy Day worked - a number of articles in the days after were quoting others in the field agreeing that Lidar wasn't as necessary.

So, think about what Musk's intent with Battery Day really is. It's not about the stock price, it's not about selling more cars, and I don't think it's about getting everyone else to make better batteries. If anything, it's about Musk showing the world where the industry as a whole should be heading, and why BEVs are better than fool cells or any other tech. But, don't expect Mr. Market to understand and react with a long term vision understanding.

 

[humbaba]

I would think that Elon has (or will) spoken to the suppliers directly. Why would he let them know via tweet what could easily and clearly be said directly to avoid a misunderstanding?

He's not letting the companies know. He was informing investors. Not that twitter is a great medium, but what do you suggest would be a better way to let all of those investors know? Musk's twitter account has far greater visibility than an investor press release, particularly when it comes to non-TSLA investors.

 

[traxila]

Hard to see a sell the news here. Has Musk’s tweet turned this on its head?

Going to see a buy the news?

 

[S3XY]

Tesla's Battery Day is a potential paradigm-changer
A uncharacterisitcally positive take on CNBC on Tesla today. Thank you Dan Ives!

This is just an example of my point that analysts are focusing on the million mile battery rather than the speed and volume of battery production that is coming. It should sink into their thick skulls eventually.

 

[Chocochip]

But then I realized: the very thing that makes the tabless cell such a great performer in terms of power, would also make it a great performer for thermal management.

That is, the metallic foil that's a great power conductor is also a great heat conductor. And that tabless design that radically increases the area of contact for electron flow also increases the contact area for heat extraction. And there aren't multiple anode/cathode/sperator layers for the heat to travel through when traversing the foil to the edge where it contacts the cell cap.

And Tesla already has to make a mechanical connection to the cap to collect current. That current collector is metallic, which is also a great conductor of heat.

So here's my not-really-a-prediction for battery day: A single mechanical connection to the cell cap provides both electrical and thermal coupling.

Yes, your intuition is correct: significantly improved thermal conduction / cooling is one of the main advantages of the tabless cell. It was described as such in Tesla's patent application.

(disclaimer, I didn't watch every single battery day video

This was discussed in several videos on the The Limiting Factor youtube channel (too lazy to put up links, sorry), as well as in one of Rob Maurer's videos.

if this idea has already been covered, please ignore me)

Ignored!
/s

 

[Chunky Jr.]

To me, Autonomy Day was done in desperation to keep investors from bailing and showing them the bigger picture. Battery Day is being done to flex their muscles and announce that there's a new sheriff in town.

 

[H Mak]

I went for a run and put in a buy limit order for a few more at $419 and when I got back it had been fulfilled. Very pleased as that brings me to a nice round number of shares owned, so I can relax now and enjoy the evening ahead

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Same here M3 awd - used to have option for perf upgrade; now "you have all of the eligible upgrades"

FSD and Performance Boost still available for me.

 

[scaesare]

Lol, you need to watch more Jordan Giesige | "The Limiting Factor" on Youtube. This was discussed months ago.

What was his speculation for end-cap connection that handled both electrical conductivity and thermal conductivity?

 

[Artful Dodger]

In case anyone wonders why $423.24 is so popular in today's SP, it's the Mid-BB:



Channelling @SpaceCash I would say "pinned AF".

Cheers!

 

[Nocturnal]

So, think about what Musk's intent with Battery Day really is. It's not about the stock price, it's not about selling more cars, and I don't think it's about getting everyone else to make better batteries. If anything, it's about Musk showing the world where the industry as a whole should be heading, and why BEVs are better than fool cells or any other tech. But, don't expect Mr. Market to understand and react with a long term vision understanding.

I disagree on Autonomy day. They showed the path to FSD, not the product. Battery day will be showing the product, and a path to scale it.

FSD and Performance Boost still available for me.

You haven't bought them yet? What kind of bull are you?

 

[kbM3]

3. Life cycle. This battery lasts 1 million miles. People can understand that.

4. Cost. This cuts the cost of battery packs by x%. People can understand that.

This is why, when the dust settles, as long as we get at least one of the above tangible improvements (probably more), then even in the short term (within a few days) I see the stock rising. But Tesla will probably need to eclipse Lucid's numbers (assuming Lucid will be able to realistically hit the numbers they announced).

Normally I would agree that the million mile battery is self-explanatory, However on Twitter someone pointed out that other analysts, in addition to Cramer, think that it means 1M mile range!

 

[StealthP3D]

These are entirely new lines including huge amounts of new technology and a new supply chain. The feedback loop on cell longevity is also quite long as cells need to be cycled a significant number of times before there is comfort that the cells are performing as expected and can be moved into full production.

Jeff Dahn discovered that battery longevity can be measured quickly and directly without extensive testing. It is done with sensitive electrical measuring equipment that can very accurately measure the resistance of the cell as it goes through a few charge/discharge cycles. This basically allows researchers to "see" the degradation happening in real time. It turns out that the most efficient cells (those with the lowest resistance) last the longest. Resistance = heat and heat = degradation and lack of efficiency. The techniques developed by Dahn and team have greatly speeded up the development of new chemistries and additives because the fast results can quickly guide researchers down the most productive paths.

That's not to say that conventional accelerated longevity/stress testing is not performed, but that the state of the art has progressed to the point that developers of new battery variations have a VERY good idea of their ultimate longevity long before the extended torture-testing is actually performed.

The specific chemistry and technology of the cells being produced at Kato Rd. have undoubtedly been under development for many years in the lab. Maybe you remember some comments Elon made about battery breakthroughs a couple of years ago when responding to people who were hoping for battery breakthroughs on grand scales? I could tell this naivety slightly irritated Musk. His response was something along the lines of "there is nothing of that magnitude on the immediate horizon" (or he would know about it). People bring their battery breakthroughs to Tesla first and Tesla follows battery research very closely so they are very aware of all the promising developments. He also said it takes something like at least 5 or more years to bring a new battery to market due to extensive laboratory testing and manufacturing development before bringing it to production. He said there are things in development that will increase energy density and other desirable metrics but these improvements are not orders of magnitude improvements but 10% here, 20% there types of improvements (I've paraphrased here). He also commented that bringing the cost of batteries down is one of the most important metrics to improve.

What we will see announced later today will be the result of years of work on the next generation of batteries. It will be better than the current state-of-the-art in more than one important metric but they will be relatively small/gradual "step changes", not orders of magnitude different. But that's all you need for a competitive advantage.

This raises the question, then what will blow our minds? I think Elon was referring to the scale and speed of manufacturing/lowering of costs that his vision results in. And that "blowing your mind" will not happen overnight - it takes time to build the machine that builds the batteries. But they have a proof of process production line running at Kato Rd. as we speak that I believe will be shown to the world this afternoon. From there it's just a matter of scaling processes and supplies - still a big task but I don't think they would be sharing it with the world if they couldn't see the path with clarity.

I wouldn't be surprised of super high production slips to 2023. This isn't anything against Elon, just acknowledging that when your forging into the unknown you will inevitably find issues that were unknown.

Well, anything is possible but I doubt it. Here's why:

The basic process and product performance are both already proven or they wouldn't be at this stage of announcing it. It's just a matter of scaling production up. The machines set up to produce the batteries have to get bigger/faster. And that leverages one of Tesla's particular strengths - the ability to solve problems.

Has betting against Elon and team served you well before? I didn't think so!