Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[-=buzz=-]

Thanks for digging into all this. It is hard to know for sure what all Tesla is including in the 20TWh cost estimate. I do believe that it is more than just the tooling that Panasonic is rolling out at $28M/GWh. Specifically, BDay presentation included processing of raw minerals and recycling. At the 20TWh scale quite a substantial portion of materials are recycled, but at the present scale mostly third party recyclers recycle the small portion used. Optimizing raw processing and recycling is one of Tesla's strategies for keeping battery material costs low. To be sure there is a tradeoff between capex (for raw and recycled mineral processing) and cogs (for the cost of processed minerals). Additionally the Panasonic tooling might not include the cost of land and and buildings. Originally this was around $20M/GWh, but as Tesla shrinks the footprint to one tenth, this cost too can come down 90% or so. (Naturally ther is some geographical variation in these.

I think using the $28M/GWh for total cost is misleading, as Panasonic AFAIK is upgrading their existing lines. So unless this is basically touching every process step by the same amount, we are only seeing part of the cost per GWh with this estimation....

 

[gabeincal]

Nice, could give a decent bump to income at end of quarter.

My car is now 3 days late with no word from Tesla. Wondering if I even get to purchase the upgrade before month’s end....

 

[Skryll]

Then China ended fossil fuels yesterday.
.

hina is reportedly planning to ramp up its energy transition strategy in Beijing’s 14th five-year plan, which sets the nation’s goals for 2021 through 2025. “A plan to derive 20 percent of its primary energy from non-fossil fuels may be brought forward by five years from 2030 and the share of coal in the energy mix cut to 52 per cent by the same date from 57.5 per cent this year,” Fickling writes, based on insider information published in a recent Bloomberg report..

.

Reducing coal from 57 to 52% - what am I missing ?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Reducing coal from 54 to 50% - what am I missing ?

There's a deeper conversation in the Energy and Environment forum.

Edit: Pardon the mistake, I see I posted the wrong link from before they made their announcement yesterday. Capping CO2 emission growth by 2030 and carbon neutral by 2060. Basically.....no longer gonna add any fossil capacity.

Enjoy the dip everyone, I expect you all to have sold and rebought by the time I'm out of the shower.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Tesla big battery in South Australia delivers stunning windfall profits | RenewEconomy

 

[M|S|M MYP]

My car is now 3 days late with no word from Tesla. Wondering if I even get to purchase the upgrade before month’s end....

Def a bullish sign when a consumer wants to 'throw' $$ at a company and can't!

 

[Yuha]

I agree with you, the DBE compacts and speeds-up the manufacturing, reduces Capex setting up the Iines, less operational waste, etc., but doesn't add to the cell performance, or if it does, this wasn't stated.

According to Jordan Giesige of The Limiting Factor channel, DBE also increases energy density and reduces resistance.
See for example this video at 2:35:

 

[M|S|M MYP]

This GM micro car overtakes Tesla Model 3 to become the most-selling EV in China

Seems like a fair comparison

 

[humbaba]

I forgot about the short interest update. As a reminder, on August 31st it was down to a new low of 54.89M shares. This was expected as there was plenty of evidence of short covering leading up to the split. The next day (Sep 1) was also strong, but Sep 2nd the shorts returned with a vengeance. At the time I said I expected the increase to not be covered by the next short interest reporting and I was right. On September 15th the short interest was up to 59.04M shares, a ~7% increase.

However, it was higher on every prior reporting period other than August 31st which I take to indicate that, despite the bump, the overall trend remains net short covering. While there was assuredly more shorting around battery day at most I expect that the next reporting date (September 30th) will at most extend the bump with perhaps a small increase in short interest, but only if the stock price stays around $400. Any significant rise will likely result in -- at least -- minimal net covering, but possibly a ~4% further decline.

All of which is to say that the evidence shows opportunistic shorting with the overall increase in stock price driving continued net short covering.

 

[bkp_duke]

Reducing coal from 57 to 52% - what am I missing ?

My understanding is that China was still going to be on the upswing in Coal usage during their next 5-year plan (2021-25). This pulls that back, and goes into reduction territory, which was planned for their subsequent 5-year plan.

Also, they are the largest producer of CO2 emissions from coal worldwide, so while it is 5%, that's a large total value.
Coal Consumption by Country - Worldometer
Currently they use almost 6X what the US does.

 

[tinyrodent]

Slide deck would be nice. Quick google and Tesla IR pages search didn't find it.

Tesla Battery Day Slides 2020/09/22

 

[M|S|M MYP]

On a side note:

Europe: Plug-In Electric Car Sales Increased In August 2020 By 171%

 

[woodisgood]

Just a fun local news piece for your Friday:
This tech entrepreneur is building a Tesla off-roading resort near Yosemite

TLDR: Entrepreneur creating an EV off-roading “resort” near Yosemite. Clueless SFGate editor joins him for some fun in a Model 3, followed by Q&A. Overall the piece raises EV awareness but also highlights some editorial ignorance.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Market-makers. They actually have the ability to move the stock price (especially when volume is low) by buying and selling. They have enough stock to sell (and legal exemption to naked-short) and enough money to buy.

Look at it from the perspective of an average-Joe retail who sells some calls against his stock (like many on this forum do). When those calls look like they will lose money (stock will be called away for less than it's worth), what can the investor do? Nothing except for hope and pray and try to move the stock price with his mind. But now pretend that you actually had the means (and no fear of legal ramifications) to move the stock price. Why wouldn't you?

Thanks, but I still don't see something...
Why would MMs want to pin the price to Max Pain on maturity dates?
Who wins from this?

 

[woodisgood]

Thanks, but I still don't see something...
Why would MMs want to pin the price to Max Pain on maturity dates?
Who wins from this?

Maxpain is an estimate of the stock price at which MM’s make the most money from all of the puts and calls they have sold. They win.

Puts make money when the stock goes down. Calls make money when the stock goes up. There exists a middle ground where basically the vast majority of the gamblers don’t make big money and the house wins. Maxpain.

I think the key fact you may be missing is MMs themselves sell a lot of options. Hence they have a large financial incentive to move the SP and the ability to do so.

 

[Tslynk67]

According to Jordan Giesige of The Limiting Factor channel, DBE also increases energy density and reduces resistance.
See for example this video at 2:35:

Interesting, didn't see that before. Thanks!

 

[bpjod]

This GM micro car overtakes Tesla Model 3 to become the most-selling EV in China

Seems like a fair comparison

Yes it’s “27 hp electric motor hooked up to a compact 13.8 kWh battery pack” and top speed of just 62 mph (100 km/h) is sure to convince Tesla enthusiasts to change their minds. I’d love to see it’s crash test results!

At 1/10th the price of a Model 3 I guess it does have some appeal as a city runabout or second vehicle. I’d consider it more of a moped competitor than a Tesla killer.

I often wish there were a different metric used for comparing car sales data such as total kWh sold or $ sales rather than just units. Then we’d get a much truer picture of Tesla’s impact on the industry.

 

[Zero CO2]

THIS IS TRUE!

As such, in an abundance of caution I've tried to follow the short argument as best as I could, for years, but every "negative/warning" or "Watch out!" article about Tesla almost always lead down the same path:

1. A tipranks.com ranking in the basement, suggesting that the pundit was actually a contra-indicator: DO THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHAT THEY RECOMMEND.

2. A throwback from the ICE automotive industry with views locked in the past (looking at you Bob Lutz).

3. Just a clueless analyst that might have done well predicting events in a previous period (say the housing/mortgage bust), but that was missing the boat/didn't "get it" with Tesla.

This said, I'm concerned of what else we, here in the echo chamber, might be missing . . . there must be something?

Perhaps some of the smarter/better informed here might chime in, but Tesla seems likely to be the most valuable company on Earth in a few years.

My biggest concern is losing Elon in the short term 1-2 years ... I know the line about no one is irreplaceable... but this is not true for Musk... he is a once in a lifetime leader

He sets such a great vision for design and engineering that it is hard to imagine anyone being able to drive Tesla like he does .. he just knows how to motivate engineers and scientists....

it is so strange I am and systems engineer by day ... and i get absolutely no motivation in my company from my leadership , however Musks enthusiasm and technical leadership rubs off on me in my work .... I constanlty say "what would elon do" ?

Edit: I just realized one thing Elon would say to me is "why are you wasting so much time on TMC"

 

[Tslynk67]

Thanks, but I still don't see something...
Why would MMs want to pin the price to Max Pain on maturity dates?
Who wins from this?

The Max Pain price is where the maximum $ value of calls and puts expire worthless on that given date. The MP quote is as of close previous day and if there's substantial changes to the open positions, will vary within the day, especially on the strike date itself, but this isn't visible with the website tools. I'm yet to work-out if the info on my broker site is updated throughout the day, but I got the impression it was.

Every put and call that expires, means the MM has pure profit in the form of the premium they got when then sold the position. Every call that exercises incurs a cost (not necessarily a loss on the trade though), so the more they can position the price, the more the pain to the buyers.

Update: nah, just checked MaxPain.com against some open interest values at my broker and they're the same, so not updated, even though I subscribe to real-time updated for the SP. I guess you can pay for the fresh info with some tools out there, if you're trading options big-time then it would be worth the money, but not for the little fish like us.

 

[Green Pete]

Thanks, but I still don't see something...
Why would MMs want to pin the price to Max Pain on maturity dates?
Who wins from this?

Call and Put writers. Max pain the the price at which most of them expire out of the money, so the writer/MM keeps all the premium and doesn't have to buy or sell and shares of tesla.