Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

Just wanted to be a bit more precise so did this drawing. I'm sure there's some math that could calculate it but I'm into hexagons:

View attachment 592673

Slept late, haven't caught up on posts, so sorry if this has been addressed.

Go look at Sandy Munroe's 2170 pack teardown. There are cooling "sheets" a few mm wide in between all the 2170 cells. Those won't exist for the 4680-based packs. So the "compression" is actually higher than what this diagram suggests.

 

[traxila]

I read something the other day that said TSLA stock price was so high because it had all the future car (CT, Semi, Roadster, etc) and technology "baked in" the ~$450/sh price but then Battery day came and Elon dropped revolutionary battery tech and car layout and the stock dropped. So either they thought Elon was going to unveil some crazy alien tech where cars run on rainbows and sunshine (Oh wait, they kinda do) or the stock price doesn't have the real future of TSLA "baked in" and we are going to see huge returns in the next 5-10 years.

People are giving the Traders and Mr. Market too much credit for these short term moves. Had nothing to do with the perception of where Tesla was technologically or what they revealed.

It was a buy the rumor sell the news. If you noticed all the articles prior were hyping and all the articles afterwards were like “what, no infinite battery that never needs to be charged?”. They were just doing their jobs. Push stock up. Push it back down. Get pissed as Musk for daring to sabotage process via tweets revealing lack of infinity battery present in all cars manufactured since 2018 prior to event.

 

[traxila]

Word is that the "ban" is political posturing. In 2035 "new" ICE vehicles will be irrelevant concerning climate change. And ICE vehicles will be undesirable by almost all segments of the car-buying public. ICE cars will be a vehicle of the poor, or the old guys that pretend "gas engines are cool."

Think old ICE cars will become expensive pretty fast once everyone jumps off the bandwagons. Hope those used BEVs are up to the task.

 

[ZeApelido]

Only if we get a government by then.
.

You can have ours.

 

[SarahsDad]

Regarding Q3 2020 production numbers/predictions, it's worth looking at what Elon said during Q2 earnings call way back in July 2019:

Yeah. I think we'll -- demand in Q3 will exceed Q2. It has thus far and I think we'll see some acceleration of that. So -- and then I think Q4 will be, I think very strong. So we expect that quarter-over-quarter improvements. I think Q1 next year will be tough. I think Q3 or 4 will be good, Q1 will be tough. Q2 will be not as bad, but still tough. And then I see like Q3 and Q4 next year will be incredible.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q2 2019 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

I think Q3 numbers will be "incredible".

 

[printf42]

The way I see it, AAPL is a 2 trillion dollar company because everyone's got to have their phone. How much will TSLA be worth when everyone's gotta have their car? Yes, I agree, we are going to have huge returns over the next decade.

My back of napkins calculation goes like this:

• I pay about $50 per month for my iPhone (excluding plan)
• I paid about $300 per month for my ICE car(excluding fuel)
• For a Tesla I am willing to pay(and I am paying) $800 per month.

There you get your scale of revenue Tesla is going to have for automotive alone.

 

[Unpilot]

Legacy companies don’t have to implement any new changed because the same old same old works just fine for them.

Yep.....until it doesn't.

 

[JRP3]

primarily, yes, but if that was all, then why would he say he'd be talking more about the relevant advancements on battery day? casting really wasnt a subject, unless it was briefly touched on and i missed it.

Tesla Battery Day: Revolutionary Casting Alloy Requires No Heat Treating or Coating

 

[JRP3]

Nice quick explanation for anyone trying to claim Tesla is only profitable because of credits:

 

[Remus]

Regarding Q3 2020 production numbers/predictions, it's worth looking at what Elon said during Q2 earnings call way back in July 2019:

Yeah. I think we'll -- demand in Q3 will exceed Q2. It has thus far and I think we'll see some acceleration of that. So -- and then I think Q4 will be, I think very strong. So we expect that quarter-over-quarter improvements. I think Q1 next year will be tough. I think Q3 or 4 will be good, Q1 will be tough. Q2 will be not as bad, but still tough. And then I see like Q3 and Q4 next year will be incredible.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q2 2019 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

I think Q3 numbers will be "incredible".

I won't take all his predictions at face value. He also predicted the virus cases would improve significantly by April. Although based on the abundant caution taken in the past nerual link and Tesla events, he changed his mind.

 

[pz1975]

For everyone speculating on the release date for Q3 delivery numbers, Q2 results were released July 2 prior to market opening. I think there is a good chance we see results released October 2 premarket. I believe that the IV for weekly options expiring next week are too low (currently 85% for ATM calls) and do not accurately represent the odds of delivery numbers being reported October 2 premarket.

I already purchased a number of weekly calls Friday expecting a spike Monday. If the IV stays low like this all week then I will be buying large number of speculative OTM calls (and probably some puts as well) Thursday before close to take advantage of a potential delivery numbers release that will definitely move the stock one way or the other.

This could be one of those rare massive lottery profit opportunities. And if I’m wrong then I will accept the loss (won’t be a lot of capital since OTM options will be super cheap by then) and move on.

 

[Singuy]

Regarding Q3 2020 production numbers/predictions, it's worth looking at what Elon said during Q2 earnings call way back in July 2019:

Yeah. I think we'll -- demand in Q3 will exceed Q2. It has thus far and I think we'll see some acceleration of that. So -- and then I think Q4 will be, I think very strong. So we expect that quarter-over-quarter improvements. I think Q1 next year will be tough. I think Q3 or 4 will be good, Q1 will be tough. Q2 will be not as bad, but still tough. And then I see like Q3 and Q4 next year will be incredible.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q2 2019 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

I think Q3 numbers will be "incredible".

Elon said the word "challenging" a few times so let's keep our expectations in check and just follow Troy's numbers. They also guided down due to COvid from "easily exceed 500k deliveries" to "it's more challenging" to hit 500k deliveries but still remain as a goal.

I am very curious to see some power pack numbers and solar. Especially solar, I am expecting some 100% qoq increase with the new pricing and permitting office open.

 

[Robocop]

Elon said the word "challenging" a few times so let's keep our expectations in check and just follow Troy's numbers. They also guided down due to COvid from "easily exceed 500k deliveries" to "it's more challenging" to hit 500k deliveries but still remain as a goal.

I am very curious to see some power pack numbers and solar. Especially solar, I am expecting some 100% qoq increase with the new pricing and permitting office open.

Do we remember when they started showing solar as the first product on their homepage? Was that q2 or entirely q3? They have since shifted, but still saw it as a bullish sign that they wanted to start ramping solar.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - yesterday: SPAC King Chamath Palihapitiya On Facebook, Tesla And Bitcoin

Excerpt:

Palihapitiya On Tesla: In 2016, Palihapitiya made a “fairly large” investment in Tesla TSLA 5.04%.

Palihapitiya has been vocal about Tesla becoming a $1-trillion company and sees cars as only the first wave of growth.

“In my opinion, [Tesla] now is on a death march to being the largest company in the world. It will be on the scale of Apple, probably larger than Amazon,” he said.

The company’s growth objectives and its ability are the reasons it has such potential, Palihapitiya said.

 

[kanweg]

This weekend I visited a PhD friend of mine who has been working in the glue industry for many years. I wanted to know his thoughts on the torsion box. This torsion box is composed of metal (casings) of cells and plates, and the car will be subjected to a wide range of temperatures (from Death Valley to Alaskan winter), and Subjected to vibration and shocks. (ADDED: and hold up for many years). He didn’t see a problem with it. He said that polyurethane would be used (epoxy is too rigid), which does have to be shielded from light (easy, given its location) and water (think of rain or people fording a stream). Entirely doable, in his opinion.

As an aside he told me that the problem is similar to gluing wind shields in a car, where the coefficients of expansion are also very different. In fact, modern cars derive part of their rigidity from the windshields glued to the metal frame as well. For a wind shield, the glue is protected from light and water by EPDM rubber.

 

[Christine69420]

Tesla has bought more land in Shanghai. To be able to build a new road on the east side of the factory making access to the new factory buildings easier:

This info is from the latest Wu Wa video:

 

[kbM3]

I’ve seen some confusion on Twitter of people thinking we get both a 54% range increase coupled with a 56% cost savings. If any of you happen to think the same way, I want to explain why this is wrong.

Let’s take the LR 78 kWh pack. A 54% range increase probably would mean they could do a 120 kWh pack in the same volume or more likely for the same weight. A 56% cost savings per kWh would reduce the price compared to the current pack to 1.56 * 0.44 = 68% cost of the original pack.

‘So still incredible, but it’s not as good as getting a 120 kWh pack for less than half the cost of the current pack.

‘I’m assuming the range increases are really a gravimetric energy density increase at the pack level including weight savings in the structure, so bottom line, you couldn’t fit a 120 kWh pack in the Model 3. I may be wrong on this point, but that would almost seem to be too good to be true.

Another thing to remember is that there was a graph showing the cost decline over time (bending the curve) and it didn’t hit the 56% cost reduction until 2025.

 

[DutchDriver]

Latest Q3 delivery prediction from https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike is now 144.500
TroyTeslike has a high accuracy when it comes to this delivery predictions.

 

[Rarity]

With the added 381 acres, the Austin site is gigantic (~2,500 acres). Additionally, I wouldn't be surprised to see Tesla purchase ~800 acres West of 130 and East of the Colorado River.

Tesla will have enough room for many gigafactories plus a second headquarters on this land. I doubt they could have assembled this size and type of contiguous land elsewhere that is so near downtown of a (any other) major U.S. city and a major airport.

 

[RobbyJ]

Tri-motor Plaid powertrain has existed since at least the Roadster reveal, which was Nov 2017 (almost 3 yrs ago). Roadrunner batteries almost certainly did not exist yet back then.

The Plaid prototype demonstrated at the Nürburgring in Sep 2019 was limited to 500 kW motor power. Since we now know the current Plaid prototype has 820 kW (1,100 hp), the 2019 prototype Plaid S more likely had power limitations from the old battery pack, the 18650 100 kWh pack.

We also know that the Summer 2019 Plaid S spotted at the Nürburgring was a returned Customer car repurposed for the development exercise. So less and less likely to have the cast aluminum structural bty tray that was highlighted at bty day. IMHO, this is the primary reason for the delay.

Last year, Elon tweeted that 'Plaid was getting too complicated' and they would go with a simplified version for production in Fall 2020. That will not happen. The new tech must be too good to ignore, too much of a step change not to have it for Plaid. Finally, with Lucid coming too market eventually, Tesla needed to step up with a tad more 'oomph' for Plaid.

Imma say 1.9 sec 0-60 mph, 8.9 sec qtr mi, and 200+ mph top speed gets that done. Ooh, did I mention 520 miles rge? Or 7 seats?

Cheers!

Yes plaid powertrain was in development for a long time, i agree.
How do you know the plaid in september was limited to 500 kW? And if correct, could just as easily have been powertrain or cooling limited, hence plaid powertrain redesign that elon mentioned.
I see no argument excluding roadrunner cells being tested at the time. That plaid model S was completely retrofitted for this test, I see no reason that that can't involve the battery.
Also initially battery day was somewhere in april or may? Hence extensive battery testing 6-8 months before!