Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mickificki]

I don't know why people think technicals are hot garbage. It's like a freaken clairvoyant for what happens in the 24hrs the past two weeks straight from these youtubers I am following.

Which YouTubers are these? If you don’t mind providing links. Thanks.

 

[dc_h]

Just sounds like he was sandbagging the timelines of the new cells to me. While he says Berlin Model Y will get new cells, he didn't say they are getting the high nickel cell. Remember there are essentially 3 versions of the new cell.

This still pretty much lines up with Semi and S/X high nickel cells coming from Kato first, medium nickel cells coming from Giga Berlin next since it will be the next new factory completed.......then Giga Texas will get the new cell's when it's completed and then they'll focus on retrofitting Fremont/Giga China/Giga 1

They're likely doing this to not interrupt production. If they start retrofitting Giga China/Giga 1/ and/or Fremont first with new cell production, it will definitely result in downtime in production

They can take a model 3 risk without risking the company. This is Elon getting the manufacturing to the next level, factory version 2.0? Shanghai took the lessons of Fremont and streamlined, now they can build with first principles and take the time to get it right. Once Berlin is ramped up, they can afford to take lines down at Fremont for a few weeks at a time and stay very profitable.

 

[Singuy]

Which YouTubers are these? If you don’t mind providing links. Thanks.

This guy you watch first as he gives a great overview of the technicals of s&p, Qqq, Dow, Financials, Healthcare, USD, Gold, and two stocks which are Apple and Tesla.

I then watch this guy to have two sources.

 

[Destination]

Good news AH upgrade (likely reason for AH bump):

Tesla upgraded to Buy from Neutral at New Street New Street analyst Pierre Ferragu upgraded Tesla to Buy from Neutral with a $578 price target. The analyst says the company's transition to a "fully-fledged profitable premium car manufacturer" is no longer a "controversial" view. Ferragu adds that only a ramp of production capacity limits Tesla's growth in at least the next 5 years, and he anticipates no pressure on prices, leading to expanding margins. The analyst further states that before 2025, Tesla's addressable market will have quadrupled in volume and its energy storage opportunity will have matured, representing a $750B addressable market.

Read more at: Tesla upgraded to Buy from Neutral at New Street TSLA - The Fly

also New Street Research Upgrades Tesla (TSLA) to Buy; 'Decade of Hyper-Growth Ahead'

The bull case is so inevitable.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Wed, Oct 07, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "Production Email Produces Pop"

Traded: $18,258,970,846.64 ($18.29B)
Volume: 43,135,248
VWAP: $423.30

Close: $425.30 / VWAP: 100.50%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $396.298B / $185.621B = 213.50%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $384.62
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $253.35
Nota Bene: 3rd tranche of CEO comp. unlocked as of Fri, Sep 04, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 54.2% (56th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 37.3% (44th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.41% of Short Volume (44th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "A/hrs tweet on Berlin Y tech (per B/day) spurs another pop"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

The Ferragu report seems pretty substantial.
New Street Research Upgrades Tesla (TSLA) Price Target To $578 From $400 With A Buy Rating

Edit: just reread it. Holy crap.
“Traditional OEMs therefore cannot compete as long as they do not get to cost parity, and they are still at least 5 years away. EV pure plays are flourishing and doing better, but won't have any competitive advantage to beat Tesla. At best they will follow suit the leading brand in its success, with less scale and less experience.”

“This means Tesla, as it stands today, will become the largest and most profitable premium car manufacturer in 2026.”

“Before 2025, tesla's addressable market will have quadrupled in volume, with lower-price cars. The energy storage opportunity will have matured, representing a $750BN addressable market. This means tesla will be even larger and still in hyper-growth mode.”

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Barron's - 24 minutes ago: A Tesla Bull Makes a Bold Call: The Stock Can Hit $1,200

Excerpt:

He doesn’t see credible new competition on the horizon, which will help Tesla maintain growth and leading profit margins. Ferragu sees Tesla generating more than $100 billion in sales and $16 in earnings per share by 2026. “ Amazon has traded in the 50 [to] 100 [times] earnings range for over a decade, and we expect Tesla to follow suit.” At the midpoint of that range, with that level of earnings, Tesla could trade for $1,200 a share by the end of 2025. (Stocks trade on forward earnings.) “At this price, the stock would still deliver 20% [average annual] return.”

2025??? Come on. We can all be dead by then. I have stuff to get. Don't have time for no 2025. Lets go for $1.000 in 15 months and then add on $1.000 every year from there. I need my yacht.

 

[Prunesquallor]

2025??? Come on. We can all be dead by then. I have stuff to get. Don't have time for no 2025. Lets go for $1.000 in 15 months and then add on $1.000 every year from there. I need my yacht.

Maui house.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Taiwan is an amazing place! It ranks 2nd both on my list of favorite places to live (2nd to Singapore) and list of favorite places to travel to (2nd to Japan). I'm sure you'll have a great time there!

There's also a fair amount of Teslas in Taiwan. When I was last in Taipei last October, I didn't see any 3s driving around yet (although they had it at the Tesla store), but I saw a very large number of Model X and a couple of Model S.

One of my friend worked 1 year in Taiwan and it was a paradise for road bicycling.
When he moved back to Montreal, he completely stopped cycling. He went on a post travel depression.

 

[steve3]

Interesting that the email talks of making and not delivering. Sounds like they might straddle the line, slightly more production, slightly fewer deliveries. At least, that seems to be what they're setting expectations for.

Twitter

 

[Cosmacelf]

Looks like they think Rivian will get their truck out first.

Based on announced timelines, that's what's supposed to happen. But as many others have stated, it doesn't matter since Tesla will sell more trucks within a year of the first Rivian truck sale than Rivian will.

I think Rivian's real hot seller is going to be their SUV, which is the ONLY full size SUV being brought to market. With zero competition and decent specs, I can't see how they can't sell a lot of them.

The weird thing is that Rivian focuses all their PR and marketing on their truck, and pretty much zero on the SUV. And their positioning isn't even right on the SUV. Rivian is building a brand image (who the cares about brand image) araound "adventure vehicles", but it'll be soccer moms gobbling up the SUV. It's all part and parcel of what I see as frequent missteps coming from Rivian. Except for raising money. They've got that figured out.

 

[willow_hiller]

Rivian is building a brand image (who the cares about brand image) around "adventure vehicles", but it'll be soccer moms gobbling up the SUV.

And they're already spending pretty serious cash on that image too. Not only did they provide two prototype vehicles for that Long Way Up show, but they paid for and installed 240 charging stations in rural parts of Latin America.

 

[asburgers]

Pierre Faragu appears to be an above average analyst.
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/pierre-ferragu

"Ranked #1,929 out of 6,976 Analysts on TipRanks (#3,252 out of 14,619 overall experts)"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not every American has $35k for a Model 3 but that doesn't stop Tesla from selling Model 3s to Americans.

Indians, like Chinese and Americans, want the middle class lifestyle. And there will be 10s of millions of Indians that will be able to afford a MiI Model 2. Perhaps 100s of millions.

The average price of a new car in the USA in 2019 was $36,700. The average price of a new car in India is $10,500.

That's not the Model 2, that's the Model 1 for India.

 

[Discoducky]

Looks like they think Rivian will get their truck out first.

It simply won't matter as their production ramp will be slower. They have a great truck and I look forward to driving it. I hope the spec's will compete and they find a niche.

 

[Paul_SF]

The average price of a new car in the USA in 2019 was $36,700. The average price of a new car in India is $10,500.

That's not the Model 2, that's the Model 1 for India.

Tesla TransPod

 

[DragonWatch]

Quite Observer.

S&P 500 approval.

Tesla’s failure to be include in the S&P on my first take was that the S&P was/is a good ‘ol boy network. Elon/Tesla has taken more than an appropriate share of heat seeking rounds. Elon has suffered the consequences of self inflicted wounds.

This article, you may have already read, paints clearer picture for me. Energy credits. This may be the reason S&P is holding back.

Personally, it makes no difference if Tesla (TSLA) is a part of or not a part of the S&P. I always look and lean forward in the foxhole.

It is easy to make a decision based on cold hard cash; it is quite another to envision a better place.

Is there a really, really, really important technical reason to be included in the S&P? Other than so-n-so thinks so

 

[ZsoZso]

Somebody mentioned earlier on this thread, that some of the tech giants (Amazon / Facebook, don't remember the detail) was added several quarters after it reached eligibility according to rules. This mathces the old guard thinking that these youngster tech corps are not "real" companies so they have to prove themselves over longer period to be accepted -- in addition to the frowning upon of the use of ZEV credit sale revenue to push into profitability (which is just an excuse really). So it may take another year of straight profitability to be added. And if Tesla misses a quarter, then the clock restarts*...

* I know thats not how the rules state it, just the sum of 4 quarters supposed to matter, but reality is different, so any excuse will do

 

[Fobble]

2025??? Come on. We can all be dead by then. I have stuff to get. Don't have time for no 2025. Lets go for $1.000 in 15 months and then add on $1.000 every year from there. I need my yacht.

Exactly in my mind when I read it. 1200 is triple of current SP in 5 years. It's bullish, but not bullish enough

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Somebody mentioned earlier on this thread, that some of the tech giants (Amazon / Facebook, don't remember the detail) was added several quarters after it reached eligibility according to rules. This mathces the old guard thinking that these youngster tech corps are not "real" companies so they have to prove themselves over longer period to be accepted -- in addition to the frowning upon of the use of ZEV credit sale revenue to push into profitability (which is just an excuse really). So it may take another year of straight profitability to be added. And if Tesla misses a quarter, then the clock restarts*...

* I know thats not how the rules state it, just the sum of 4 quarters supposed to matter, but reality is different, so any excuse will do

It would be a shame for all those SPY owners to miss out on TSLA gains for another year. Hopefully Q3 is profitable without including ZEV credits. Maybe that would convince the comittee to add Tesla.