Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

I remember in their press letter that said they have the capacity to produce 500k cars this year.

There are a couple different things. In terms of the number 500,000, the Q2 letter said installed capacity at Fremont for 3/Y was going from 400k to 500k. Which means at the end of the year, the plant has the ability to make 500k a year, not that it would make 500k in 2020.
It also showed 690k total current global production capacity for all models and factories. The first half had 185k production, requiring 315k more or a yearly capacity of 630k, so 500k was possible. Q3 added 145k, so we need 170k more or a 680k annual rate.

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf

Although the Model Y production line was operating for about four months in the first half of 2020 due to shutdowns, we exited Q2 with Model Y production running at installed capacity. This ramp was significantly faster than our initial Model 3 ramp, which took over nine months to reach the same weekly rate. We are installing additional machinery at the Fremont Factory, which is expected to increase total Model 3 / Model Y capacity from 400,000 to 500,000 units per year.

 

[kengchang]

Apparently the above is for deliveries in the US.

Source : 2020 U.S. Auto Manufacturer Sales Figures | GCBC (goodcarbadcar.net)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Y in US will likely get it when Terafactory Texas goes online. I would not be surprised to see 100% of Y production shift there, so that they can retool Freemont.

Just my reading of the tea leaves.

Yeah, unlikely that Y goes to Texas-only production. Elon already said 3/Y for the West coast will come from Fremont, and for the Eastern U.S. from Texas.

It's logistics. Unless Alameda County bones the pooch again, the brand new GA5 line at Fremont will be producing Models Y as fast as California can consume them. Remember, HALF of all Tesla sales in N. America happen in California.

Cheers!

 

[insaneoctane]

We are getting off the topic of the thread, but I run a business, and do business in CA. It's VERY expensive to do business in this state compared to most others. I spend a @#$% ton of time minimizing as much as I can in CA.

Labor, especially skilled, is about 30% more. Then there are taxes, which you get hit for at multiple levels (state income, unemployment, etc.) which are higher than other states.

Politics aside, it is comparatively expensive to run a business in CA. Anyone that has done so will tell you that.

Taxes undoubtedly, but don't forget the cost of dealing with the unprecedented regulation and red tape.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1313854912212750346
Does anyone think this reduces the likelihood of Plaid having 4680s and structural battery and castings from & rear?

 

[adiggs]

Yeah, unlikely that Y goes to Texas-only production. Elon already said 3/Y for the West coast will come from Fremont, and for the Eastern U.S. from Texas.

It's logistics. Unless Alameda County bones the pooch again, the brand new GA5 line at Fremont will be producing Models Y as fast as California can consume them. Remember, HALF of all Tesla sales in N. America happen in California.

Cheers!

And as may Teslas get delivered in California, last I checked it was still a market with huge opportunity for Tesla to grow. Something like 7% of new car sales in the state?

 

[Todd Burch]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1313854912212750346
Does anyone think this reduces the likelihood of Plaid having 4680s and structural battery and castings from & rear?

No, I think he's referring to Y/3 in that Tweet. Foregone conclusion IMO that Plaid will use 4680s. Why unveil a new drivetrain architecture 1 year from now that doesn't use the latest and greatest?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Elon is so freaken confusing. First he says these cells going into plaid, cybertrucks, semi and roadster. Then he says high nickel 4680 only basically cementing the fact that it's not coming to the 3 and Y because he literally have a slide that tells us this
Now he is saying it's going to the Y first in berlin? Da F is going on?

If Y is getting 4680 in Berlin then they have no plan on importing Fremont Ys with inferior cells to prevent osbourne.

But then wouldn't Y in the US get it as well? Seems like they have indeed figured out how to mass produce or else there's no way they are putting in a beta cell line in Berlin.

In that tweet thread, Elon cautioned that a lot of brand new technology is going into giga Berlin MEANING that production could be delayed and/or some of that new tech might not make it in there right away. So, talking about Fremont versus Giga Berlin production and what is going to come out of each is premature at this point. No one knows yet, not even Elon.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Elon has now essentially indicated that MY in Berlin will have 4680 cells. However, that doesn't mean it will have all of the new battery puzzle pieces yet.

I suspect initial MYs might "just" have the new form factor/pack and tabless. New anode/cathode etc. could be integrated later.

DBE is also needed at sufficient yield rates. Otherwise they need to redesign the factory for gigantic drying ovens and air handling of solvents.

 

[hobbes]

One of these things is not like the other...

https://twitter.com/tesla_master/status/1313908031713808386

View attachment 596198

What country is this data from?

 

[CyberDutchie]

Watch for MMs (or bots) to push share price down to $420 again (or lower) in the after hours, this seems to be happening every day lately.

 

[mrdoubleb]

One of these things is not like the other...

https://twitter.com/tesla_master/status/1313908031713808386

View attachment 596198

Source : 2020 U.S. Auto Manufacturer Sales Figures | GCBC (goodcarbadcar.net)

Yeah, I saw this the other day but it seems to be seriously off.

• Tesla has sold 318k cars this year so far
• Europe was 64k as per the official registration data we collect regularly
• China had 70k Model 3s until end of August, so with a couple of thousand S/X plus September sales it should be 90-100k.
• This leaves 164-174k for the ROW plus the US

@Troy estimates ~130k for the US. This is still awesome, basically same as last year while everyone is down serious double digits. But the 229k goodcarbadcar suggests is total.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

What country is this data from?

I believe it is North America (or US) only

 

[dhrivnak]

Sorry if this was posted already but Tesla nailed it in 3rd quarter with the Model 3 the best selling car in the USA. Outselling common cars like Camry, Civic, Corolla and Accord. Awesome.

And as a manufacturer they did better. They were the ONLY manufacturer to show a sales increase YTD, a hefty 65% increase where the average car company saw a 18% drop.

 

[dc_h]

The benefits of the 4680 cell will not be that obvious to the consumer. The 4680 pack should be much cheaper to produce, but that doesnt mean Berlin Y will be priced lower. Elon did mention the 4680 pack has a lower polar moment of inertia so maybe Berlin Y will handle better for a given pack size? Other than that, why would customers care what cells they have?

It should have a better ride, firmer chassis and likely slightly better weight distribution and possibly longer range. It will also have more color options.
Interesting he didn't say Austin will follow. So is Austin all Semi to start or move some other production to Austin?

 

[Tslynk67]

What's this, a rise in AH?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

What's this, a rise in AH?

Weird aint it? Almost a given its in the red AH these days.

 

[Christine69420]

What's this, a rise in AH?

Yeah - bread taste better if you make it rise twice. And the delicious smell attract buyers.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What's this, a rise in AH?

This news in just hitting the Wires:

Teslarati

Tesla Model Y from Giga Berlin will utilize 4680 cells and structural battery pack

"Elon Musk has confirmed some interesting details about the vehicles that Tesla will be producing at Giga Berlin. According to the Tesla CEO, the Model Y that ...

10 mins ago​

 

[jbcarioca]

Elon is so freaken confusing. First he says these cells going into plaid, cybertrucks, semi and roadster. Then he says high nickel 4680 only basically cementing the fact that it's not coming to the 3 and Y because he literally have a slide that tells us this
Now he is saying it's going to the Y first in berlin? Da F is going on?

If Y is getting 4680 in Berlin then they have no plan on importing Fremont Ys with inferior cells to prevent osbourne.

But then wouldn't Y in the US get it as well? Seems like they have indeed figured out how to mass produce or else there's no way they are putting in a beta cell line in Berlin.

One plausible reason is that German cars need more range than do cars elsewhere, at last when people use the Autobahn system optimally.