Paying attention to them. More a hogs get slaughtered issue. lol
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Paying attention to them. More a hogs get slaughtered issue. lol
Remember when we used to worry about the odd fire that would generate lots of bad press?
Now there is press about EV fires, and it is about the fires at every OEM EXCEPT Tesla. Oddly no mention of Tesla at all in this article.
Auto Makers Grapple With Battery-Fire Risks in Electric Vehicles
Now there is press about EV fires, and it is about the fires at every OEM EXCEPT Tesla. Oddly no mention of Tesla at all in this article.
Auto Makers Grapple With Battery-Fire Risks in Electric Vehicles
Coinstar... hmmm, had forgotten about that metallic asset. I might be able to buy half a share!If NAS and market weren't such a POS today...$TSLA would prob be $450....oh well...just more time to pick up some shares when i cash in my coinstar coupon.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Who would have thought we'd close red today, so close to a smashing Q3 ER?
Also, post-close, this guy does great videos, and his latest one is mostly for lol's.
Also, post-close, this guy does great videos, and his latest one is mostly for lol's.
DurandalAI
Member
Well, I stocked up today, averaging about $435. If I hadn't bought earlier in the day, it could have been lower. Oh well.
Did you happen to try trading around MMD?FWIW I day trade this stock to get funds to buy more shares for my long account. I'm still up a lot for the year [duh], but I've gotten hosed in the past few trading days. lol
My best success recently has been buying at close and selling ~7:30am. If I just did that and backed away it would be a much different story. ah well.
Can't win em all.
I didn't expect today to happen this way at all, but worked out OK anyway.
I think Nancy threw a dry dog biscuit knowing it would go nowhere just to drive her point. It sure tracked the NASDAQ like I've never seen in my life here.
Put a buy order in at $429.50 thinking it wouldn't reach but hey....i have 17 more new shiny shares thanks partly to all my change i cashed in
Yeah that's what I've been doing, usually with great success. The past few weeks the bounce off MMD hasn't been as sustained as expected. The patterns seemed to have changed in September for reasons beyonds my pay grade. It used to be buy the dip ~9:40 and sell around noon. All this while of course playing the BB etc. I think unfortunately there's the change in my pattern my keeping the emotions out of it. There were many days I was up $500 and should have known to walk away, only to end up down double that. Since my Friday error I was on tilt today. I just need to hit the reset button. I was making $250 in a couple hours easy but got greedy as I kept being frustrated on missing out on the upside. I need to remember that's what my long account is for. I've been dealing with [maybe post COVID] fatigue and an inflamed heart [pericarditis] so that's not helping on a number of levels as I'm unable to run [which is my life] and my brain is going to *sugar*.
. Stay safe all! <3
This could time quite well. Nancy gave a 48 hr notice. This gives way for a Wed macro mini-recovery, and a step up for TSLA.
Springboard coming IMO!
Springboard coming IMO!
Monday, October 19th sticks in the minds of older investors, at least subconsciously. Today marks the 33rd anniversary of the Crash of '87, AKA Black Monday. The DJIA dropped 22.6% in just that one trading day.
That day I was one of the hosts of the "Stock Market Observer" program on channel 26 in Chicago. We kept the show going into overtime. One of the potential interviewees I tried to get is a friend who is currently running for Congress in my district. At the time his main job was running a financial firm, and he refused to come to the phone.
It's possible that some investors with lingering memories of that day were especially cautious today.
That day I was one of the hosts of the "Stock Market Observer" program on channel 26 in Chicago. We kept the show going into overtime. One of the potential interviewees I tried to get is a friend who is currently running for Congress in my district. At the time his main job was running a financial firm, and he refused to come to the phone.
It's possible that some investors with lingering memories of that day were especially cautious today.
Ah, that Core... For me it changed over time, but mostly bc I changed to the 50/50 strategy. I missed out on a lot of upside, but still made out and felt safer in these times. Right now I'm TSLA heavy so looking to sell a few sometime Wed in afterhours maybe. Or not.
Thanks for the response.
> Its priced where it is because Tesla is executing on its growth strategy and expanding a tech and software lead.
Perhaps we have some differences in the interpretation of some terms.
By "Price to perfection", I didn't mean overvalued. Also, I was focused more on Q3 ER effect on SP, not Q4 and next year.
> Next year, I believe Tesla will make 1 million vehicles
This is one data point we differ in, I am not at a million, but certainly at being closer to a million than 750k.
I am factoring in a ramp up having some trail-and-error as new aspects of production are incorporated in Berlin and Texas.
> Tesla shares today pretty cheap
My TSLA All-in (and beyond) position agrees with the growth, growth in the lead, and shares being cheap.
Perhaps it's me being > 100% in TSLA that's making me be cautious. Thus the reason for me seeking varied views.
Also, I am factoring in some probability of market lowering the multiples across the board in 2021.
May I know the 2021 EPS you have in your current calculations?
Yeah that's what I've been doing, usually with great success. The past few weeks the bounce off MMD hasn't been as sustained as expected. The patterns seemed to have changed in September for reasons beyonds my pay grade. It used to be buy the dip ~9:40 and sell around noon. All this while of course playing the BB etc. I think unfortunately there's the change in my pattern my keeping the emotions out of it. There were many days I was up $500 and should have known to walk away, only to end up down double that. Since my Friday error I was on tilt today. I just need to hit the reset button. I was making $250 in a couple hours easy but got greedy as I kept being frustrated on missing out on the upside. I need to remember that's what my long account is for. I've been dealing with [maybe post COVID] fatigue and an inflamed heart [pericarditis] so that's not helping on a number of levels as I'm unable to run [which is my life] and my brain is going to *sugar*.
Stay safe all! <3
> playing the BB etc.
Can you share more details?
Hope you will be back to your best soon!
Reductionist
Member
For what it's worth, Troy has just posted his 2021 delivery estimate - he's forecasting 60% growth in deliveries relative to his expectation for 2020 (500k). Glancing over his numbers, seems like there is still quite a bit of upside potential there, especially for Giga Berlin.
As a point of reference, Volvo delivered 705k in 2019.
https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1318253550665949184
As a point of reference, Volvo delivered 705k in 2019.
https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1318253550665949184
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Mo City
Active Member
His Model 3/Y projection for Fremont is well below capacity and I believe (hope?) Berlin starts sooner and ramps up much faster than he does. Berlin's ramp is subject to how fast they get the bugs out of the new battery lines.For what it's worth, Troy has just posted his 2021 delivery estimate - he's forecasting 60% growth in deliveries relative to his expectation for 2020 (500k).
As a point of reference, Volvo delivered 705k in 2019.
https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1318253550665949184
View attachment 600260
This puts a damper on my hopes for 1 million in 2021, but whatever. 1M is just an arbitrary number.
For what it's worth, Troy has just posted his 2021 delivery estimate - he's forecasting 60% growth in deliveries relative to his expectation for 2020 (500k). Glancing over his numbers, seems like there is still quite a bit of upside potential there, especially for Giga Berlin.
As a point of reference, Volvo delivered 705k in 2019.
https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1318253550665949184
View attachment 600260
Troy's Q4 estimate and his 2021 full year estimate doesn't add up. If Tesla is able to do 170-180k production in Q4 between Fremont(which is still not at full Model Y production) and Giga 3(that's still ramping Model 3 and has not started Model Y at all), then they'll easily hit 200k deliveries in Q1 2021 and ramp up from there.
Reductionist
Member
I don't really care for specific delivery milestones that much tbh. I just want to see ~50% CAGR for deliveries for the next 5+ years. If they manage that, the company as a whole is on a good trajectory.
Not sure why you would take Troy's estimate of 2021 as anything other than a wild guess. He has literally no insight that far out from his data gathering method and has no information that we don't have when it comes to Tesla's production ramp for Giga Berlin and Austin, as well as Giga 3 Phase 2. He has no knowledge of any upcoming price drops(which I do think will happen as MIC Model Y and then Berlin Model Y being production). Troy's estimate is very much below production capacity for 2021 based on what we do know right now. So in a way, Troy thinks they're going to have trouble selling more than 750,000 vehicles between S/X/3/Y. If you believe that Tesla is going to be selling millions of cars in a few years, then I think there's something very off about a view that Tesla will have issues selling 900,000 S/X/3/Y in 2021.
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Off Shore
Off Topic Member
And OMG please faster with the Cybertruck!
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