Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dc_h]

Shipping from China to Europe is a huge wildcard. I don’t want to get ahead of myself, but Shanghai can handle multiple shiploads at a time, where SFO had room for one roro for Tesla. If they delay local China deliveries for 3-4 weeks they can ship ~5000 cars a week to Europe.
I think the downside for Q4 is the Fremont speed of Y production. Not yet seeing VIN reports that imply ramp has accelerated significantly. At this stage the ramp can suddenly change week to week. VIN numbers are hard to track, but production rate may be linear from Q2. 20-30% quarter over quarter is not so bad though, just not matching model 3 production yet.

 

[Christine69420]

What I think of as an interesting thought process is the coal powerhouse in the background. If not already, soon will be shut down and all that space goes to waste. What if the stacks were demo'd and the interior space emptied out and Tesla put a modified Megapack assembly line inside which wouldn't take up much space. My reasoning is the entire place could be filled up with massive amounts of battery storage.. MASSIVE. It already has all the grid connections it needs. Then solar could fill the roof and property. Look at how small this large Megapack installation is compared to the size and multiple floors of the powerhouse. I say modified assembly line because you would not need the water tight structures and cooling concerns might have to be addressed with them inside.

Not that I expect this to happen but some people outside of us seem to think there is no way to have enough batteries to backup the grid for days of clouds. I say you can store more kWh with lithium batteries on that property than those coal fire turbines could generate. The coal fired steam turbines are at best 500mWh each. You could basically turn that building into a Terapack. Realistically I believe it would be better to have distributed battery pack rather than all in one spot.

The point of this here? Think of how many batteries it will take to supply the needs of a green future. I can definitely see Tesla Energy exceeding cars.

Not coal but natural gas according to Wikipedia. Still not clean ofcourse.

 

[Tslynk67]

Is the new strategy of the manips to bore us out of our shares?

As an aside, I was at Brussels Service Centre today to get my summer wheels swapped for winter - not that we can drive anywhere with this C19 nonsense and not that we really get winters any more, but that's beside the point.

Was a 9 calendar-day lead-time for the appointment, compared to 6 weeks in the past, which a dramatic improvement. I asked one of the guys about it and seems it's down to both farming out simple stuff to the mobile units and increasing efficiency for the rest.

Hopefully this is being seen in other SC's and countries too, especially NO, for instance.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Less than a year til Elon can resume the Chairman's role.

what would be gained by replacing Denholm? I think this separation has been working and gives Elon plausible deniability. The board of directors are responsible for protecting the shareholders. Those shareholder lawsuits are ultimately fruitless, because Elon can claim that he doesn't control the board.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Is the new strategy of the manips to bore us out of our shares?

As an aside, I was at Brussels Service Centre today to get my summer wheels swapped for winter - not that we can drive anywhere with this C19 nonsense and not that we really get winters any more, but that's beside the point.

Was a 9 calendar-day lead-time for the appointment, compared to 6 weeks in the past, which a dramatic improvement. I asked one of the guys about it and seems it's down to both farming out simple stuff to the mobile units and increasing efficiency for the rest.

Hopefully this is being seen in other SC's and countries too, especially NO, for instance.

No one is buying squat, anywhere. IV must be a record low as I haven't seen TSLA option pricing this rational probably ever.

If you're bored, you can always just buy some Nov20th $500's for $18.40. Eighteen dollars!

 

[Tslynk67]

No one is buying squat, anywhere. IV must be a record low as I haven't seen TSLA option pricing this rational probably ever.

If you're bored, you can always just buy some Nov20th $500's for $18.40. Eighteen dollars!

I've already got Nov20th $300's, thanks very much, they're keeping me nervous enough as it is

 

[corduroy]

a wide mouth bottle

Nice humblebrag.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

If NAS and market weren't such a POS today...$TSLA would prob be $450....oh well...just more time to pick up some shares when i cash in my coinstar coupon.

 

[AudubonB]

~~~Supercharger amenities and lack thereof belong elsewhere. No more such discussion to appear here.~~~

semi-mod: sorry for overlap, but I just deleted them. --ggr

 

[Dreadnought]

How come we are not talking about the upcoming earnings report?

Is it that BAD ? /S

As others pointed out before me, with Near-future quarterly financial projections, there's a dedicated thread where well-informed members generously share their diligently prepared and peer-reviewed estimates. I certainly don't feel qualified to contribute there but since the level of activity in this thread once more mirrors the volume on Nasdaq, let me throw in some speculation.

Volume has been anaemic for the last two weeks and volatility has been low by TSLA's standards. But what strikes me particularly odd this quarter is that wall street estimates that used to creep up in the last weeks leading up to ER in previous Qs have remained constant this time. WS consensus and estimize are once again blissfully ignoring the growing operational leverage and will again rub their eyes in disbelief.

I for myself have leveraged up a bit but with exploding CV-19 numbers in EU and elections ahead, anything is possible and this is certainly not advice.

 

[Knightshade]

It's kinda hard for there to be a "sell on the news" event when there's been no "rally/buy on the rumor".

Not saying that the stock won't get pushed down if this low volume continues, but there's no set up here in the past month of a buy the rumor.

I expected last week to close roughly flat... that's what the stock has done EVERY week-before-ER going back at least 4 quarters now.... (Q3/19 flat, Q4/19 up ~3%, Q1/20 down ~3%, Q2/20 up like 0.3%)

Week OF earnings is usually more interesting though....

Q3/19 basically flat until day of ER then big spike and mostly stayed there next 2 months

Q4/19 basically flat until day of ER, then a small bump (like 3-4%) but up nearer 20% by Friday and that began the big rally that ran almost another full month

Q1/20 bout a 10% spike Monday of ER week but by end of week closed down from previous Friday and remains flat for weeks after before starting a slow climb.

Q2/20 ~10% jump spike Monday of ER week, but again closed down by end of week from the previous Friday and stayed very roughly flat for another 3 weeks before the mid-august rally.




I suppose if we went by that, ER weeks without a big Monday spike, like today, are better for post-ER bumps.

(Past performance is no guarantee of future results, not an advice, etc)

 

[wtlloyd]

What I think of as an interesting thought process is the coal powerhouse in the background. If not already, soon will be shut down and all that space goes to waste. What if the stacks were demo'd and the interior space emptied out and Tesla put a modified Megapack assembly line inside which wouldn't take up much space. My reasoning is the entire place could be filled up with massive amounts of battery storage.. MASSIVE. It already has all the grid connections it needs. Then solar could fill the roof and property. Look at how small this large Megapack installation is compared to the size and multiple floors of the powerhouse. I say modified assembly line because you would not need the water tight structures and cooling concerns might have to be addressed with them inside.

Not that I expect this to happen but some people outside of us seem to think there is no way to have enough batteries to backup the grid for days of clouds. I say you can store more kWh with lithium batteries on that property than those coal fire turbines could generate. The coal fired steam turbines are at best 500mWh each. You could basically turn that building into a Terapack. Realistically I believe it would be better to have distributed battery pack rather than all in one spot.

The point of this here? Think of how many batteries it will take to supply the needs of a green future. I can definitely see Tesla Energy exceeding cars.

Moss Landing is a gas peaker, and in the middle of nowhere logistically speaking.

 

[Tslynk67]

As others pointed out before me, with Near-future quarterly financial projections, there's a dedicated thread where well-informed members generously share their diligently prepared and peer-reviewed estimates. I certainly don't feel qualified to contribute there but since the level of activity in this thread once more mirrors the volume on Nasdaq, let me throw in some speculation.

Volume has been anaemic for the last two weeks and volatility has been low by TSLA's standards. But what strikes me particularly odd this quarter is that wall street estimates that used to creep up in the last weeks leading up to ER in previous Qs have remained constant this time. WS consensus and estimize are once again blissfully ignoring the growing operational leverage and will again rub their eyes in disbelief.

I for myself have leveraged up a bit but with exploding CV-19 numbers in EU and elections ahead, anything is possible and this is certainly not advice.

We've had a whole string of "sell the news" events since Q2ER, other than the reaction to the split, everything has gone the opposite of what you would expect. Also the overwhelming little daily positives we're getting don't seem to move the needle, as neither do the analyst upgrades/increased price-targets that have been quite regular since Battery Day.

Maybe we're due a "buy the news" later this week. It'd certainly baffling.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I expected last week to close roughly flat... that's what the stock has done EVERY week-before-ER going back at least 4 quarters now.... (Q3/19 flat, Q4/19 up ~3%, Q1/20 down ~3%, Q2/20 up like 0.3%)

Week OF earnings is usually more interesting though....

Q3/19 basically flat until day of ER then big spike and mostly stayed there next 2 months

Q4/19 basically flat until day of ER, then a small bump (like 3-4%) but up nearer 20% by Friday and that began the big rally that ran almost another full month

Q1/20 bout a 10% spike Monday of ER week but by end of week closed down from previous Friday and remains flat for weeks after before starting a slow climb.

Q2/20 ~10% jump spike Monday of ER week, but again closed down by end of week from the previous Friday and stayed very roughly flat for another 3 weeks before the mid-august rally.




I suppose if we went by that, ER weeks without a big Monday spike, like today, are better for post-ER bumps.

(Past performance is no guarantee of future results, not an advice, etc)

This is all interesting, but would be more useful if viewed within the context of the broader market and what information was presented to investors at each earnings call. One could then take a step further and speculate on the information likely to be presented at this upcoming call to try and model an outcome. I don't have the time to do that now; perhaps I'll have a moment to do so between now and after hours on Wednesday and share with this group.

One thing is for sure -- the uncertainty around stimulus and the election is weighing on TSLA just as much as it is on the rest of the market.

 

[jerry33]

We've had a whole string of "sell the news" events since Q2ER, other than the reaction to the split, everything has gone the opposite of what you would expect. Also the overwhelming little daily positives we're getting don't seem to move the needle, as neither do the analyst upgrades/increased price-targets that have been quite regular since Battery Day.

Maybe we're due a "buy the news" later this week. It'd certainly baffling.

People are purchasing iPhone 12 rather than three shares of TSLA.

 

[phantasms]

FWIW I day trade this stock to get funds to buy more shares for my long account. I'm still up a lot for the year [duh], but I've gotten hosed in the past few trading days. lol

My best success recently has been buying at close and selling ~7:30am. If I just did that and backed away it would be a much different story. ah well.

Can't win em all.

 

[corduroy]

I did not expect it when I placed it at 8am, but my $430 order just filled.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I've got another 100 Buy at $431, but no way unless MMD hits hard. But then it's smooth sailin' for the week.

Yeah, got to $431 by 3:27 PM instead on the slow fade w. macro assist:

The next obvious tgt for shortzes is the Mid-BB (currently at 426.26)

SP intraday low down to 428.88 by 15:27 hrs.

 

[Artful Dodger]

FWIW I day trade this stock to get funds to buy more shares for my long account. I'm still up a lot for the year [duh], but I've gotten hosed in the past few trading days. lol

My best success recently has been buying at close and selling ~7:30am. If I just did that and backed away it would be a much different story. ah well.

Can't win em all.

Ignoring the moves off the BBs at your peril?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Yeah, got to $431 instead on the slow fade w. macro assist:

View attachment 600192
The next obvious tgt for shortzes is the Mid-BB (currently at 426.26)

SP intraday low down to 428.88 by 15:27 hrs.

Oh, it did execute. Thanks.