Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

3 month free FSD is a great way to lay the groundwork for FSD as a service. Not many people want to spend 10,000 cash, after they have their car loan, so uptake on FSD as an after market purchase is going to be a lot lower than 3000 or 5000 FSD, but $100 a month uptake could be pretty high. Giving 1-3 month free FSD for all new purchases could increase subscription service. With only 100,000 cars at $100 a month, that’s 10 million a month. By 2022, when there’s close to 2 million cars on the road, monthly FSD could be 20 to 50 million a month. Very hard to estimate the take rate, but services cash flow should start growing dramatically in 2021 and grow 100% annually for the next 5 years or more.

These are important points you're making. Once FSD becomes safe enough that (at-fault) accidents become exceptionally rare, then Tesla can bundle vehicle insurance for FSD-owners for essentially the current cost insurance. Your monthly FSD subscription replaces your monthly insurance payment, and Tesla pockets the (high-margin) proceeds.

Also, this argues strongly that the monthly FSD subscription for individual use (not-Robotaxi) will be in the same range as current Insurance rates, or about $100 per month (not the $300 per month that some imagine).

Cheers!

 

[BigDawgz]

No wonder. @TroyTeslike published his estimate today. His estimates are accurate (+/- 3%) Seems like investment banks are waiting for his estimate and not doing their own homework.

Did he post it on Patreon early? He said it would be coming out both on and off Patreon tomorrow.

 

[Cosmacelf]

At fist I thought "burnished" was negative. I had to look it up. I was wrong.
View attachment 622479

You're probably thinking of "tarnished" which is the opposite of burnished.

 

[ABCTG]

A look through all the used listings on the Tesla website shows all 2019 and newer are sold with Full Self Driving

 

[WattsHappening]

These are important points you're making. Once FSD becomes safe enough that (at-fault) accidents become exceptionally rare, then Tesla can bundle vehicle insurance for FSD-owners for essentially the current cost insurance. Your monthly FSD subscription replaces your monthly insurance payment, and Tesla pockets the (high-margin) proceeds.

Also, this argues strongly that the monthly FSD subscription for individual use (not-Robotaxi) will be in the same range as current Insurance rates, or about $100 per month (not the $300 per month that some imagine).

Cheers!

I sure hope you're right. But I have a hard time seeing $100/month pricing. That would be 8+ years before it becomes more expensive than the $10K up front price. That seems too long to me, particularly since Elon has stated buying will be a better deal than subscription.

If they offer $100/month, I would think that would have a huge adoption rate!

 

[ZeApelido]

Wanted to go outside and play, they said.

 

[WattsHappening]

So do we think today's SP is a battle between MMs trying to keep the SP down and PMs buying for year end window dressing, with MMs not being able to keep up, especially with most weak longs already out of the stock? Seems reasonable to me.

 

[Mike Smith]

Curt's warming up his youtube..

 

[Mo City]

Looks a little to pricey for me

Not surprised. I bought a large number of Jan 2023 900Cs last week when TSLA was in the $660s (yeah, I know, very poor timing), but they are up nearly 20% while TSLA is only up 4% since.

 

[Phobi]

So do we think today's SP is a battle between MMs trying to keep the SP down and PMs buying for year end window dressing, with MMs not being able to keep up, especially with most weak longs already out of the stock? Seems reasonable to me.

Here’s hoping it’s just the universe moving back into balance after being out of whack for the last 4-5 years... (mind you a lot of “correction” this year already )

Long and strong.

 

[Rohan]

Oh this is ridiculous, I'm being stymied from opening a bottle of bubbles by the strength of the pound- more like the weakness of the dollar - oh well, it's only a matter of time Good luck to the longs!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So do we think today's SP is a battle between MMs trying to keep the SP down and PMs buying for year end window dressing, with MMs not being able to keep up, especially with most weak longs already out of the stock? Seems reasonable to me.

Today's stock action has everything to do with imminent Q4 P/D numbers.

 

[wipster]

Damn! And I mean that in a good way!

 

[Mike Smith]

It's panic time for the active S&P trackers..

 

[Mo City]

Mom woke up to find this beauty parked in the driveway. It’s perfect...Panel gapless!View attachment 622503

That is so beautiful. It's exactly what I'm ordering next week for my wife.

I was going to take her somewhere and have my son switch cars while we are inside. But maybe her waking up to it in the garage or driveway is the way to go.

 

[StealthP3D]

Curt's warming up his youtube..

I hope you're not suggesting Curt's YouTube runs on vacuum tubes!

 

[Joe F]

Mom woke up to find this beauty parked in the driveway. It’s perfect...Panel gapless!View attachment 622503

Please warn her that cars in the rear view mirror are further away than they appear, by the second.

 

[H Mak]

Blimey! Just checked the share price

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Guess the MM's are pushing hard to keep this below $695

 

[vikings123]

Looking at Arhun Bhat S’s information shown in @elasalle’s post -

Can someone familiar with India tell us if the GST numbers he provides are nationwide charges, or are they state-specific?

It is a national level tax that combines both the state and central taxes, mostly fixed and does not vary by state.