Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

What a surprise, someone is capping at $650 (large orders being put in and pulled as TSLA has tried to go above $650, and especially large orders when it dares to cross $650). There is a sell order at $650 for 4,600 shares that keeps being put in and pulled.

Well, it is the Triple Witching Hour: a quarterly expiration of stock index futures, their options and individual stocks. An examination of TSLA option open interest and trading volume suggests that $650 would be the most profitable target for big option writers with the means to manipulate the share price. Volume is low enough to make that reasonable. They may be winding a spring that could be released on Monday.

 

[Buckminster]

Will benchmark funds be buying at the closing cross?

 

[asburgers]

You REALLY need to take him into gas stations and explain how it all works right now.... just so he can tell his kids all about it. Hell do it until there aren't any...his perception will evolve.

Yes. When gas stations used to check your air and oil levels...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Tempted to grab one more call contract at $700 for next week. $7 is too juicy to ignore. My thought is that we'll see all this SP smashdown unwind Mon/Tues and approach $700 by midweek. Hmmmmm

 

[Opus BC fan]

I am shocked I tell you, shocked...

I'm not seeing a catalyst for this game changing next week...

 

[viridi]

Seems MMs may be losing the battle!!!!

 

[Sofie]

So next week we go down? Or we go up? Lol
Thoughts welcome

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Is it within the definition of "market making" to naked short a stock until 3:50 on a triple witching Friday then close out your short in the last 10 minutes? That doesn't seem to me something that would fall within the bounds of transparent MM.

 

[Christine69420]

Great news from Giga Berlin:

Tesla, GIGA BERLIN, March 19/2021, GigaBerlin is close to the finish first offices are occupied.​

Skip to around 10:20 for a view of the offices.

 

[pz1975]

I took all my proceeds from the sold puts and calls placed this morning when it became clear $650 was the target and bought 20 April 1 $800 calls for $1.89 each. I like free lottery tickets.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

So next week we go down? Or we go up? Lol
Thoughts welcome

Yes

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA +$1.71

 

[elasalle]

Keep Q1 hopes up

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372732432487616512

 

[dl003]

As some of you may remember, the first week of February saw a massive put buying on TSLA in the last hour of Friday which caused put premiums to 3x in about an hour before Friday ended. The next Monday out came the news of Chinese regulators vs. Tesla. We were green Monday due to the BTC news. GB sold that same day. From Tuesday on we went straight down. That was shortly before the yield spike and tech correction.
I just saw the same thing happen to a lesser degree. Put premiums just went up 60% in minutes even as the stock broke out of 650. Maybe someone was trying to hedge their position ahead of further yield spikes. Maybe someone knows something TSLA specific. The magnitude of the move was decently smaller than last time so I'm not as worried. SPY just broke through 390 support at the very last minute so this is probably macro related.

 

[Mo City]

Confirmation from IDRA of orders placed for the 8000 ton Gigapress for Cybertruck:

It will be a wonderful day to see the first CTs rolling off the line in Dec/Jan.

 

[woodisgood]

I suspect they'll need more than one of those 8K presses for CT, no? I guess not until they really hit volume production in 2022, but the timing of that second order will be very telling on the overall progress of the ramp.

 

[capster]

When I read this I thought of different China news than the prohibition of Teslas with cameras on military bases, I thought of the detention and sham trials of the 2 Canadian Michaels that are prominent on Canadian media today. This brought forward my awareness that there is geopolitical risk in Tesla's China investment, and has caused me to be less confident of the value of that investment.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say China may be disinclined to act against Tesla in a big way. (And I don’t think restricting Tesla cars on their military bases is a big thing. )

The Chinese are rightfully proud of their part in the Tesla success story in China. Interfering now would be high profile and let all kinds of folks say "see, they’re not reliable partners."

Interfering would also place their own exports at risk, and not just new energy vehicles, as other governments respond in kind. You can be sure others would in the current climate.

Also, companies would more aggressively shift or split their supply chains to mitigate risk from political fallout. ABC (anywhere but China) has already been a factor for some years.

I‘m not saying it can’t happen. After all it’s not a great look for China to fail to live up to its agreement with the UK regarding Hong Kong. And, it’s not a great look for them to fail to buy promised amounts of imports from the US.

So China is definitely willing to casually throw its weight around in an attempt to get the West to go back to just rolling over for them. The Chinese leadership is in for a rude awakening when they realize those days are gone for good.

Still, most countries are looking for more employment for their citizens as a result of the pandemic and many are looking for effective responses to China’s mercantilism. For China to step on Tesla would be tantamount to them saying they are closing for business. I’d be surprised if they’d make such a misstep, but you never know.

tl;dr: Many governments would love for China to present them a poster child of an excuse to push back hard and repatriate lost jobs.

 

[Pras]

I’m going to go out on a limb and say China may be disinclined to act against Tesla in a big way. (And I don’t think restricting Tesla cars on their military bases is a big thing. )

The Chinese are rightfully proud of their part in the Tesla success story in China. Interfering now would be high profile and let all kinds of folks say "see, they’re not reliable partners."

Interfering would also place their own exports at risk, and not just new energy vehicles, as other governments respond in kind. You can be sure others would in the current climate.

Also, companies would more aggressively shift or split their supply chains to mitigate risk from political fallout. ABC (anywhere but China) has already been a factor for some years.

I‘m not saying it can’t happen. After all it’s not a great look for China to fail to live up to its agreement with the UK regarding Hong Kong. And, it’s not a great look for them to fail to buy promised amounts of imports from the US.

So China is definitely willing to casually throw its weight around in an attempt to get the West to go back to just rolling over for them. The Chinese leadership is in for a rude awakening when they realize those days are gone for good.

Still, most countries are looking for more employment for their citizens as a result of the pandemic and many are looking for effective responses to China’s mercantilism. For China to step on Tesla would be tantamount to them saying they are closing for business. I’d be surprised if they’d make such a misstep, but you never know.

tl;dr: Many governments would love for China to present them a poster child of an excuse to push back hard and repatriate lost jobs.

China banning tesla in military areas is not even a news, I mean I was surprised that they even allowed this long as most militaries don’t even allow cameras or phones in sensitive areas.

CNBS had a tesla 30sec commentary on how this ban bodes badly on Tesla’s China growth story. Really! They aren’t this dumb so are they doing it on purpose?!

 

[Johnny Ma]

I’m going to go out on a limb and say China may be disinclined to act against Tesla in a big way. (And I don’t think restricting Tesla cars on their military bases is a big thing. )

The Chinese are rightfully proud of their part in the Tesla success story in China. Interfering now would be high profile and let all kinds of folks say "see, they’re not reliable partners."

The military base thing is not a big deal at all. I posted earlier that the tweet in Chinese was only about the interior cameras. Somehow, that got linked to military base ban. The tweet did not have any relation to a Chinese military ban on cars that are basically equipped such that they could be spy vehicles because of their ADAS and autonomous capabilities (all the cameras).

I doubt China will be a risk for Tesla anytime soon. Maybe in a decade, if ever at all.

 

[MXWing]

New Max Pain as of this morning is 640.

I had 650 short puts expiring today which I closed for small green. Feel dirty not diamond handing it until the end. We'll see how it goes.

I hope I gave up 100% profit on this for all the other apes here.

@Lycanthrope

Gave up 4000 in premium over just 4.87 price movement!

Very happy to see us in the green, no matter how little. It's a nice morale boost for everyone going into the weekend.

It doesn't play out over a day but I am expecting positive tailwinds if we can hang on.

- Current share prices have a higher probability of moves up versus moves down. 650 is closer to 550 than 900.
- The market will get tired of bond rates and NEGATIVE REAL WORLD YIELD versus also a 'sure bet' on hypergrowth Tesla.
- I believe Tesla will say something to the positive regarding the chip short shortages affecting all other auto when P/D and discussed.
- March continues to GF Berlin, GF Austin. So looking forward to the Cybertruck.