Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

So how did the other family members read it?

TIA

More literally. Not bullish, rather expecting if he really meant it then he would have a higher percentage.....think dumb and dumber....

 

[UncaNed]

Here is how "The Register" handles the NLRB ruling.

Tesla broke US labor law with anti-union efforts – watchdog

And Elon Musk must delete 2018 tweet threatening loss of benefits for unionizing

www.theregister.com

I presume this "might" get another rehashing as part of ESG evaluation on the corp level but not very familiar with how ESG works exactly.

What happened to freedom of speech??

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Sorry to be picky, but actually mostly BRITISH programmers . I know this because demis used to be my boss and dave silver my line manager when I worked at elixir

Respect! I forgot that DeepMind was a, one must say, very fortuitous acquisition, not a Google native invention. Go Britons!

 

[insaneoctane]

Regarding supercharger access Tesla would be negotiating from a point of strength.

In addition to entering a contract with a given car maker, they can also require that a specific EV-owner that wants to use the Supercharger Network for their car create a Tesla-account, to enable the payment - giving them an opportunity to check out Tesla's other products...

Naturally, a non-Tesla, slowly-charging EV cannot reduce the Supercharger throughput. So the payment of the non-Tesla EV would need to be the greater of the price of the electricity they actually charged and the price of the electricity a Tesla could have charged in the same amount of time at the stall.

Looking at Tesla's recent conditions for buyers who opt to pay with Bitcoin, I am fully confident that Tesla will know to get the best out the Supercharger Network.

How do you recoup the “cost” and inconvenience to a Tesla owner waiting for a stall to the SC while the slow charging non-Tesla EVs fill the spots? Every Tesla owner paid for the SC network in the price of their cars and possibly purchased their Tesla knowing they had access to the best charging (and exclusive) network available.

 

[insaneoctane]

Woah. Listen to this (should play at relevant part).

Chamath basically saying major nickel resource has been flooded and will delay supply by a year and battery costs are gonna jump.

Thoughts?

Thoughts? “Price of Tesla doubling?“ I Can’t trust anything he says now...

 

[insaneoctane]

Love this post so much, and the preceding sentiments by @Krugerrand. THIS is how you have a weekend OT discussion!

I've been an ultra-annoying poster the last couple months, even gone so far as to invite my first two(2!) bannings, but I think it's primarily due to ambivalence about all these shenanigans posted above. The GME situation was just the straw that broke my cerebral cortex. Every day I stream Bloomberg for at least a portion of the morning to grab the business news. And every day I see the JPMorgan spot where they claim to help customers "explore the other side of volatility", essentially advertising they trade on somewhat inside information or some such advantage.

Hedge funds could reliably bring in billions until Warren Buffet figured out that the fees ruin any questionable investing advantage they had, so now they make money off inorganic volatility. Adding to that a supremely lax regulatory environment....and you get the Gamestop situation, which is really just an extreme example of everything we've seen with TSLA for years and year.

At the risk of an unprecedented 3rd(1) banning, and with all respect to our wonderful mods(no sarcasm), I would again ask the good people of TMC to dissect the GME situation and continue the conversation with this very much still alive experiment as a backdrop. The power these clowns have is unfathomable in this window of zero regulation, it's like Gordon Gecko if there were no repercussions.

If MM have this much power and can get away with this much BS, just think what our policy makers are getting away with themselves....

 

[insaneoctane]

Upcoming feature of the Tesla app: Lock doors and use FSD to drive to police station/jail/nearest police car.

Not sure the interior of that Tesla would ever be the same...

 

[joh01652]

**** Buffett. This is ridiculous. Solar/wind + battery storage is the way to go.

Buffett's Plan To Fix Texas Energy Grid Includes 10 New Peaker Plants Owned By Buffett - CleanTechnica

Here's the essence of the plan: Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway would spend more than $8 billion to construct 10 1-megawatt natural gas-powered peaker plants in Texas in exchange for a guaranteed rate of return.

cleantechnica.com

Haha, yeah, a "guaranteed rate of return," I love it.

So as the price of electricity generation continues to drop due to steadily declining renewable cost curves, Texas rate payers will be fleeced into paying higher and higher electricity costs from Buffett's peaker plants because he is contracting a "guaranteed rate of return" with the state. I really hope Texans aren't bamboozled into this.

Someone's got to tweet Elon about this. Tesla could install the same renewable-based capacity for less AND save rate-payers money.

I've really lost all respect for Berkshire and Buffett now. And all these years I was tricked into thinking he was such a kind, grandfatherly sort of figure. Stupid me.

 

[lklundin]

How do you recoup the “cost” and inconvenience to a Tesla owner waiting for a stall to the SC while the slow charging non-Tesla EVs fill the spots? Every Tesla owner paid for the SC network in the price of their cars and possibly purchased their Tesla knowing they had access to the best charging (and exclusive) network available.

Tesla is in business to grow - and by having 3rd party cars charge & pay - presumably at (at least) the same rate per unit time as a Tesla - at their Superchargers, they get more money (that other electricity sellers miss out on), allowing them to grow their business and the Supercharger network faster.

Admittedly, I did not consider the perceived loss of value to the Tesla brand by allowing a charging Tesla to be seen charging next to a non-Tesla - maybe even the horror of a plugin-hybrid - probably because I am one of these unfortunate people who in general have to rely on public parking and even the occasional third party charger.

As for every Tesla owner having paid for their car in the expectation of having access the Supercharger network, that is not true for those who were brave enough to buy a Tesla before the Supercharger network existed, bless them and their thick wallets - for without these pioneers Tesla would not exist today. I think of that every time I see an older Tesla (especially the Roadster, which to this day cannot use the Supercharger network).

 

[2daMoon]

How do you recoup the “cost” and inconvenience to a Tesla owner waiting for a stall to the SC while the slow charging non-Tesla EVs fill the spots? Every Tesla owner paid for the SC network in the price of their cars and possibly purchased their Tesla knowing they had access to the best charging (and exclusive) network available.

In addition to @lklundin's response above, what if Tesla only modifies some of the Tesla chargers to work for the other EVs, and leaves a bunch more at each stop that only work for Tesla cars?

The OPs question almost seems as if it were based on an assumption that the number of SCs remains static over time. If that were the case the concern might be a valid issue. Taking into account the dynamic nature of expanding the SC network, it looks like a fantastic opportunity. This provides additional funding for growth that will happen anyway, right?

If Tesla can expand the number of SCs with the help of government funding, and, increase billable usage by providing connections for other EVs, any concern for finding a charger will likely solve itself. They just have to grow the SC network at a rate to accommodate the growth of EVs in the fleet.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Thoughts? “Price of Tesla doubling?“ I Can’t trust anything he says now...

Napkin math/ballpark numbers supports your distrust:

Assume 40 K USD Tesla (few options, no AP) with 100 kWh battery at 100 dollar kWh pack cost. Yes, all nice round numbers - not too far of.
So battery is ~10K all in with BMS controllers, metal case, cooling - and batteries themselves.

Out of that, nickel should be around 35% cost-wise. So 3500 dollar. So less than 10% of a low-price Tesla.

So if nickel prices goes up by 10X then that is almost enough to double the price of a low-priced Tesla. Almost - but not quite.

Oh, and it is off course worse for the more expensive Tesla models. For the prize of a 100 K USD Tesla to double, nickel would have to 30X.


Correction: Battery pack cost for 40K Tesla is probably closer to 7 K USD.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Not sure the interior of that Tesla would ever be the same...

Yeah, that's a terrible idea. Better to just pull the car over and make it unable to move again, and unlock all the doors so the thief can flee without damaging the car any further.

 

[lklundin]

Early in the latest Jason Yang video you can see that they've already starting earth works on the new land that Tesla is believed to have purchased across the river and to the south of the existing plant.

A mud field with some digging going on - super bullish!

 

[Prunesquallor]

This is unlikely to happen because it takes too long to get approval for NG and the cost is too high compared to renewables. He'd probably have to pay the Legislators the first ten years profits to get it through.

Although Buffett IS buddies with Greg Abbott, so it bears watching.

edit: if it is determined that adding additional peak capacity is an answer, we somehow have to make sure it’s competitively bid, so that Tesla energy can undercut everyone else.

edit2: and it’s not clear that additional NG would solve anything anyway. It may have been that NG delivery was a major part of the problem.

 

[Singuy]

Thoughts? “Price of Tesla doubling?“ I Can’t trust anything he says now...

No, iron is the alternative. Also as price goes up, other manufacturers will scale down as there's acceptable limits people are willing to pay for a commodity.

A world wide nickel shortage is bad news for legacy automakers as they have to rely more on efficiency than chemistry to be competitive which has always been their weakness. Teslas 4680s are compatible with any chemistry so the show will go on with price cuts using iron. And as Tesla switch to more iron, nickel prices will drop until Tesla and others are willing to pay for it. So no way nickel will 10x. 1.5x maybe...but that's where these things will go before their demand drops like a rock.

 

[Dave EV]

**** Buffett. This is ridiculous. Solar/wind + battery storage is the way to go.

Buffett's Plan To Fix Texas Energy Grid Includes 10 New Peaker Plants Owned By Buffett - CleanTechnica

Here's the essence of the plan: Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway would spend more than $8 billion to construct 10 1-megawatt natural gas-powered peaker plants in Texas in exchange for a guaranteed rate of return.

cleantechnica.com

Haha, yeah, a "guaranteed rate of return," I love it.

So as the price of electricity generation continues to drop due to steadily declining renewable cost curves, Texas rate payers will be fleeced into paying higher and higher electricity costs from Buffett's peaker plants because he is contracting a "guaranteed rate of return" with the state. I really hope Texans aren't bamboozled into this.

Someone's got to tweet Elon about this. Tesla could install the same renewable-based capacity for less AND save rate-payers money.

I've really lost all respect for Berkshire and Buffett now. And all these years I was tricked into thinking he was such a kind, grandfatherly sort of figure. Stupid me.

After BRK announced that they bought heavily into Chevron, I started divesting myself from BRK and into other funds like ARKK and similar.

So glad I did.

Financially, the timing was not good, but hindsight is 20-20 and long term I am confident that BRK is yesterday's news and ARKK will continue to be tomorrow's.

We must stop investing into fossil fuels today - these items (automobiles, power plants, HVAC) are sunk costs and will stick around for 10-30 years at least while contributing to our carbon dept.

Electrify everything - cars, trucks, homes and businesses - and power them with solar, wind and batteries.

This is the way.

 

[jbcarioca]

Haha, yeah, a "guaranteed rate of return," I love it.

So as the price of electricity generation continues to drop due to steadily declining renewable cost curves, Texas rate payers will be fleeced into paying higher and higher electricity costs from Buffett's peaker plants because he is contracting a "guaranteed rate of return" with the state. I really hope Texans aren't bamboozled into this.

Someone's got to tweet Elon about this. Tesla could install the same renewable-based capacity for less AND save rate-payers money.

I've really lost all respect for Berkshire and Buffett now. And all these years I was tricked into thinking he was such a kind, grandfatherly sort of figure. Stupid me.

He was superb when he was younger.I had a seminar with him 45 years ago and he was brilliant.
I am obviously well past my peak, but Warren Buffet is borderline senile and has been for a decade or so. Primarily I think it is because he never tried to consider climate change as a risk. It is indeed sad to see him fade.

 

[traxila]

Warren Buffet is all about cash on cash return.

He is also all about establishing BS moats to crush competition. Just ask Solar City what he did in Nevada.

His thing has always been ID what people are addicted to, wait for the addiction to be mature and pervasive and then profit from it, the good of society be damned (as in, this is not a consideration for his investments).

Would call him more amoral than immoral.

Do not doubt him in Texas. He will probably pull it off.

Personally, I really dislike him and have for a long time. He can move on to other pursuits in life far as I am concerned.

 

[Jack6591]

Warren Buffet is all about cash on cash return.

He is also all about establishing BS moats to crush competition. Just ask Solar City what he did in Nevada.

His thing has always been ID what people are addicted to, wait for the addiction to be mature and pervasive and then profit from it, the good of society be damned (as in, this is not a consideration for his investments).

Would call him more amoral than immoral.

Do not doubt him in Texas. He will probably pull it off.

Personally, I really dislike him and have for a long time. He can move on to other pursuits in life far as I am concerned.

Times change, Warren doesn’t...

 

[Phobi]

Building FSD valuation model with James Douma

Was a great listen while making breakfast this morning The miles/kilometres are gonna rack up quick! I must admit, the idea of pulling the trigger on buying FSD is creeping into my mind more and more. Conservatively looking forward, FSD is equal to ~13 shares currently (or $45k @ARK’s base $3,000PT). Not sure what the price of my M3P- with grandfathered FSD will be able to sell for down the road, but it’s getting the gears...or motors turning

Kudos to the future! Long and strong.