Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pezpunk]

Lol, well numbers don't match: 2020Q1 deliveries 88,400 x 2 would be 176.8K

But +15% QoQ from 180,570 in 2020Q4 would be 207.7K deliveries.

So imma wait until the April Fool's "news blackout" is over...

Cheers!

Those percentages appear to be in regards to Europe / Middle East / Africa, so it doesn't apply to China and North America.

 

[Johan]

I would think this an April Fool's, but as it's posted by @Fact Checking...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377541061040607236

Premarket seems to agree...

 

[Artful Dodger]

not sure if authentic, TeslaFacts (ex Fact Checking) believes so

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377538895055892483

View attachment 649854

Important fact (yet not universally well-known) about "Team EMEA": (Europe, Middle East, and Africa)

What countries are in EMEA?​

• Continental Europe. Poland, Germany, France, Denmark, Turkey, UK, The Netherlands, Switzerland, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Czech Republic, Luxemburg, Sweden, Austria, Portugal
• Middle East. Israel, United Arab Emirates
• Africa (presumably not quite yet for Tesla)

So the figures (if the email is shown to be authentic) would apply to this region.

Cheers!

 

[Pezpunk]

The source seems credible, and they're insisting they got it from a Tesla employee.

Fact Checking thinks it's plausible....

Troy Teslike is saying absolutely no way, though. The email seems to imply Europe deliveries of 40k - 47k and Troy is insisting the real number is more like 26k.

 

[AudubonB]

~~~And now it is time for the...

APRIL FOOL'S WARNING

Moderators have ===>ZERO<=== tolerance tomorrow for ANY mischief posts. The following is by no means exhaustive, but inter alia,

• NO P & D numbers
• NO Wall Street Upgrade/Downgrade, Price Targets or other such
• NO "pronouncements" from SEC, from the White House, from Mr Musk or so forth
• NO references from, quotes from, links to any social media that purport to be disseminating any of the above

Several forum participants have in past years thought themselves funny by posting material along the lines of those categories above. NO ONE else was amused by such shenanigans.

"Oh but I didn't realize it was an April Fool's joke" - Doesn't matter. YOU WHO SHARE THAT HERE are guilty. There already has been one, emanating as it was from the other side of the Date Line. That is the SOLE post whose perpetrator is getting off with zero penalty.

This or similar such posts may recur over the next day or so.~~~

<Sigh> SECOND WARNING

 

[AudubonB]

“Gee, this is probably fake but someone else wouldn’t be taken in by fakery, would he? That must make it eligible to be passed on.”

 

[Todd Burch]

-We’ve heard multiple sources from different locations (Canada, EMEA) talk about beating goals in Q1. All technically unverified but consistent in their message.

- No EOQ push/incentives.

-Prices went up.

-I forget the wording, but Elon mentioned within the last few months that demand is not a problem and there are lots of orders (was that toward the end of Q4?)

-Lots of talk of cell supply constraints.

-Remember that Shanghai hoarded Fresh Model Ys at the end of Q4 and then released the Kraken once the Q started.

-China has consistently been ramping faster than expected.

I’ll continue to be cautious recognizing that we get overexcited here—and it doesn’t really affect my trading strategy anyway—but things do seem to be consistently pointing in one direction, and that direction is more positive than the general sentiment has been...

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

One thing to keep in mind when looking at possible delivery numbers is that there were ten ships to Europe in Q1. Historically they seem to have had around 3.000 cars per ship on average. May or may no be the same in Q1.

 

[Todd Burch]

One other theory to consider is that we really have had weakness in the US in Q1 due to people waiting on the infrastructure bill, causing supply to shift elsewhere.

 

[Todd Burch]

One thing to keep in mind when looking at possible delivery numbers is that there were ten ships to Europe in Q1. Historically they seem to have had around 3.000 cars per ship on average. May or may no be the same in Q1.

Someone could see whether the ship names are consistent with previous quarters...but since RoRos can have a capacity of up to 6,000 cars, that theoretically could put things in the ballpark.

It would make sense, especially since lots of Europe supply comes from China now and ships would be potentially different than when supply came from the US.

In my mind it would also make sense that if Tesla planned to ship more cars, they would request larger ships vs more ships as that would almost certainly be more efficient (cost-wise and environmentally).

 

[Tslynk67]

See, the dumb side of my brain stopped me from realizing "tomorrow" is Apr-01

Well you're ahead of me on account of only having one dumb side...

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Someone could see whether the ship names are consistent with previous quarters...but since RoRos can have a capacity of up to 6,000 cars, that theoretically could put things in the ballpark.

It would make sense, especially since lots of Europe supply comes from China now and ships would be potentially different than when supply came from the US.

In my mind it would also make sense that if Tesla planned to ship more cars, they would request larger ships vs more ships as that would almost certainly be more efficient (cost-wise and environmentally).

Absolutly. That's to much work for me though. We need Someone to step up and do the work.

 

[Tslynk67]

@2daMoon
are you suggesting a variation and reprise of “the Berlin Airlift?”
with perhaps what? a few dozen more tests of SpaceX Starship, SSTO (single stage to orbit) (100% reusable) and massive payloads of cargo or passengers.
the borders could be closed, except to violence
may I suggest reading , both with more technologies
“the diamond age” by Neil Stephenson (large population )
or
“the peace war” by Vernon Vinge (much smaller population)

Only read one Vinge novel - A Fire in the Deep, which had several interesting concepts, but the characters were a little shallow

Currently in the third book of the Revenger series Alistair Reynolds. He's the closest I found to Iain M Bank's style, his Revelation Space series is superb, but sometimes his prose can be a little stentorian

 

[Todd Burch]

This Twitter thread is interesting:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377397626023288832

 

[canoemore]

I hope Plaid S deliveries start soon! I’m looking forward to the YouTube reviews

 

[Thekiwi]

wouldn't we have seen the sort of growth talked about in the supposedly leaked email show up in the registrations stats for the EU countries we have the daily data available for?

 

[Todd Burch]

wouldn't we have seen the sort of growth talked about in the supposedly leaked email show up in the registrations stats for the EU countries we have the daily data available for?

Not sure we have enough timely data to know for sure. Some places like Norway give us daily updates. Other places we don’t have this information, and it really depends on where cars are funneled in a given quarter...which is Gordo’s problem. He puts blinders on, looks at January deliveries in Europe and assumes a demand problem.

We really can’t see the whole picture until numbers come in.

Just one example: I believe Israel is a new market this quarter. I haven’t seen any stats for them, but being a new market, they probably have some pent-up demand. How many thousands of cars went to Israel this quarter? 1000? 2000? 100?

It’s really hard to gauge without the full picture. Some people like Troy try hard so I tend to trust their numbers until I get surprised by the official numbers.

 

[Pezpunk]

Not sure we have enough timely data to know for sure. Some places like Norway give us daily updates. Other places we don’t have this information, and it really depends on where cars are funneled in a given quarter...which is Gordo’s problem. He puts blinders on, looks at January deliveries in Europe and assumes a demand problem.

We really can’t see the whole picture until numbers come in.

Just one example: I believe Israel is a new market this quarter. I haven’t seen any stats for them, but being a new market, they probably have some pent-up demand. How many thousands of cars went to Israel this quarter? 1000? 2000? 100?

It’s really hard to gauge without the full picture. Some people like Troy try hard so I tend to trust their numbers until I get surprised by the official numbers.

For the record, Troy says ~250 units delivered Q1 in Israel. His error range for Europe has never been more than about 500-1500 cars. For this email to be right, he'd have to be off by like 15,000. It seems extremely unlikely, unfortunately.

It's weird, though, because the email seems to come from two different fairly reliable sources. (WholeMarsCatalog also reported it)

 

[lascavarian]

I am guessing this UFC thing is another Joe Rogan based attempt to influence EM for Rogan’s benefit. Am I missing something about this? Seems like Rogan trying to plump up his tough guy gambler cred by pimping out E.

 

[HG Wells]

Actually, I think it will be S/X numbers (just like when Tesla introduced the 'Raven'). True story: last Monday, my dental hygenist told me 'they stopped making the S'. I told here yeah, over Christmas, to upgrade the line for the new model.

She is, however, really enjoying her brand-new 2021-Q1 Model 3 SR+ (I told her about them in Sep 2020).

Cheers!

A dental hygienist has a model 3 ?
Someone who makes just a little over minimum wage ?
Can you believe how great a country this is ?
OH its Canada. Never mind.

EDIT: This shows how dumb I am. They actually make a decent wage I thought it was a six month course to become a dental hygienist. My apologies.