Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Featsbeyond50]

OK all of you posting triggered my curious mind...

...I came in late on the coat tails of many of you here. $36 and $658 or a 622 spread.

I've got to be close. I've got shares at 17.60 and over 800.

 

[JRP3]

Without question we’re doomed. We’ll screw it up like we do everything else. You won’t be here to worry about it, but your kids might and for sure their kids.

James Barrat titled his book on AI as "Our Final Invention"

 

[elasalle]

Why are so many of you obsessed by short term price movements? Aren’t we all here for the long run?

A true HODL "should not need to " be following TMC thread on a daily basis ..shares in a box and hide the key

 

[Chenkers]

Pre-market and post-market hours trading is always SHARES only, never (for us individual traders) pre-market nor post-market OPTIONS trading, is that correct?

Corect. I can buy shares through IB in the early pre-market (and post) but can't trade options. My options prices don't update until about 10 minutes before market open and I can't trade them until market open at 9.30am. I expect this Monday will see a share price and IV run-up in pre-market making options much more expensive by the time the market officially opens.

 

[lklundin]

Per the CEO, two other gigapresses have been installed and put into production at customer plants - with 9 additional ones to be delivered during 2021.

Apologies for quoting my own post but I took a look at the gigapress foundations Giga Austin and Giga Berlin. I know the cell production is a very big deal and likely the bottleneck in Tesla's production capacity, but these giga presses are fascinating.

At Giga Austin I see one bridge crane over three Giga press foundations, here the 3 foundations are clearly visible:

- with one (OL 6100 CS) Giga press currently being installed (as of Wednesday):

At Giga Berlin I see two bridge cranes side-by-side (one with the actual crane still missing), each having apparently four giga press foundations underneath them. Under the operational crane there appears to be two (identical?) giga presses being installed, one clearly labelled as IDRA OL 6100 CS:

In Tesla 2020Q3's Update (p. 15) we see at Giga Shanghai a bridge crane over 3 giga presses in various states of assembly, these are labelled Impress-Plus DCC6000 and made by IDRA's parent company LK Machines:

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/4E7BR9_TSLA_Q3_2020_Update_P0Q85U.pdf

As for the OL 6100 CS Giga press that IDRA presented at their own facility in Italy, that one is presumably for delivery at either Austin or Berlin - or has been delivered.

So we have these Giga press presses (being) installed + additional foundations:
2 = 2+0 Fremont
3 = 1+2 Austin
8 = 2+6 Berlin
3 = 3+0 Shanghai (Phase ?)
==============
16 Giga presses at 4 locations

The question mark for Giga Shanghai is because there could easily be another phase with additional presses.
Idra's CEO said two presses were delivered in 2020 (presumably to Fremont), and 9 more planned for 2021.
With Austin and Berlin having already taken delivery of Idra presses and Shanghai of LK ones, it seems safe to assume that all 9 of Idra's 2021 deliveries will go to Austin and Berlin, maybe 3 for Austin and 6 to Berlin (leaving Berlin with space to extend w. two additional ones).

 

[buttershrimp]

Without question we’re doomed. We’ll screw it up like we do everything else. You won’t be here to worry about it, but your kids might and for sure their kids.

The ethics are fun to consider. I am glad neuralink exists, it has real potential to help paralysis, amputees etc... but where I think people don’t understand neuralink is that integrating into higher order functions of cognition and emotion in brain with electronics won’t be possible in the way they describe it. If it’s solved it sill be be in a totally different way than they are describing currently, with wetware in the brain. We will be able to replicate an AI brain in a super computer computer but talking to other billions of neurons gracefully with hardware is the challenge. Full AI that mimics the brain will be possible, and eventually exceed human capabilities. Just don’t think you will easily be weaved into it for higher order functions. Let’s see what happens with neuralink. I’m still waiting for a Musk interdisciplinary Center for neuroscience at UT first.

 

[Chenkers]

Split filing w. SEC was after the close on Aug 11, 220 (chart lists pre-split SP)

Yahoo lists the closing price on Aug 11 2020 as $274.88 ($1,374.4 pre-split).

 

[30seconds]

Telsa's stretch goal for 2021 likely looks something like this: (Model 3/Y Deliveries)

Q1: 185K +​

Q2: 228K +​

Q3: 272K +​

Q4: 315K =​

1 M Models 3/Y​

Then throw in 100K Models S/X and that's 1.1M deliveries for 2021.

Ambitious, but achievable IMO.

Cheers!

Hmmm, hopefully.

40k incremental Q1 over Q2 without new factory is probably where I’m most challenged. But 850k 3/Y out of Fremont and China could be doable for the year and then add in S/X and some ramp from Berlin or Texas to get to 1m.

1m is kind of a moot point if the company is hitting 300k+ production in Q4.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Apologies for quoting my own post but I took a look at the gigapress foundations Giga Austin and Giga Berlin. I know the cell production is a very big deal and likely the bottleneck in Tesla's production capacity, but these giga presses are fascinating.

At Giga Austin I see one bridge crane over three Giga press foundations, here the 3 foundations are clearly visible:

- with one (OL 6100 CS) Giga press currently being installed (as of Wednesday):

At Giga Berlin I see two bridge cranes side-by-side (one with the actual crane still missing), each having apparently four giga press foundations underneath them. Under the operational crane there appears to be two (identical?) giga presses being installed, one clearly labelled as IDRA OL 6100 CS:

In Tesla 2020Q3's Update (p. 15) we see at Giga Shanghai a bridge crane over 3 giga presses in various states of assembly, these are labelled Impress-Plus DCC6000 and made by IDRA's parent company LK Machines:

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/4E7BR9_TSLA_Q3_2020_Update_P0Q85U.pdf

As for the OL 6100 CS Giga press that IDRA presented at their own facility in Italy, that one is presumably for delivery at either Austin or Berlin - or has been delivered.

So we have these Giga press presses (being) installed + additional foundations:
2 = 2+0 Fremont
3 = 1+2 Austin
8 = 2+6 Berlin
3 = 3+0 Shanghai (Phase ?)
==============
16 Giga presses at 4 locations

The question mark for Giga Shanghai is because there could easily be another phase with additional presses.
Idra's CEO said two presses were delivered in 2020 (presumably to Fremon), and 9 more planned for 2021.
With Austin and Berlin having already taken delivery of Idra presses and Shanghai of LK ones, it seems safe to assume that all 9 of Idra's 2021 deliveries will go to Austin and Berlin, maybe 3 for Austin and 6 to Berlin (leaving Berlin with space to extend w. two additional ones).

Aren't there 3 more foundations in Austin? Right next to the others? Also. It's believed they will build 4-6 more next to those at the very corner that still doesn't have anything built on it.

 

[AudubonB]

I just cancelled my (online) NYT subscription - I was not having much use for it anyway now that the elections and its fallout are over - and on the cancellation form made clear that Neal Boudette's bias against Tesla was the cause. That a journalist can tweet the things he does and still call himself a journalist is an affront to journalism (which I say as a former journalist). I also informed him of my cancellation.

What a wretched day.

IF the world were as it was - to mix slightly the decades - I would call up my Uncle ___X___, who was a certain NYTimes editor in the 1950s and say “__X_, this can not stand”. And he would call Arthur Sulzberger or, in latter days, Abe, and say, in that inimitable and unmistakeable New Hampshire accent, “Punch? You have let me and the world down. You’ve let some snot-nosed fella - he appears to call himself David Gelles but by his writing even that is suspect - not only write a hash of baloney but he’s bragging about it on Twooder. Let’s not have this happen again!”

And it would not.

A propos of @Right_Said_Fred’s response, I’ve re-posted a contribution of mine from a few years back. Exchange David Gelles’s name with Neal Boudette’s and it remains just as spot-on now as then.
Unlike many others who have written here, I do not ascribe more than a passingly small portion of the Times’s animus toward Tesla to fear of loss of advertising revenue from the rest of the auto industry. I have not, I confess, a wholly cogent alternative explanation but perhaps two important factors could be

• Left Coast - Right Coast rivalry. This certainly exists and there is no reason to presume the newspaper is less susceptible than its hometown city is in a general lamentation of its loss of hyperdominance in just about everything. It doesn’t explain away the attitude of the L.A. Times toward Tesla, but I’ll not explore that here.
• a reluctance to embrace Mr Musk’s own predilection toward non-traditional means of disseminating information, presenting as it does an existential threat to the paper’s importance. I admit to holding this concern myself, as my own occasional screeds against Twitter et al. will attest.

 

[Chenkers]

So we have these Giga press presses (being) installed + additional foundations:
2 = 2+0 Fremont
3 = 1+2 Austin
8 = 2+6 Berlin
3 = 3+0 Shanghai (Phase ?)
==============
16 Giga presses at 4 locations

The question mark for Giga Shanghai is because there could easily be another phase with additional presses.
Idra's CEO said two presses were delivered in 2020 (presumably to Fremont), and 9 more planned for 2021.
With Austin and Berlin having already taken delivery of Idra presses and Shanghai of LK ones, it seems safe to assume that all 9 of Idra's 2021 deliveries will go to Austin and Berlin, maybe 3 for Austin and 6 to Berlin (leaving Berlin with space to extend w. two additional ones).

Austin is expected to have 6 of the 6100 gigapresses. I expect the current 3 foundations will be mirrored in the wide column zone to the east that hasn't had concrete or bridge cranes installed yet. IDRA mentioned 9 presses to be supplied. Given ramping of the model Y at Berlin and Austin they may start with half their presses, so 3 and 4 respectively. This could leave the remaining two to be 8000 series gigapresses to be installed at Austin in the area to the north that is currently having geopier work done. Then additional gigapresses would be installed in 2022 as production ramps.

With Shanghai being suupplied with Gigapresses directly from LK Machinery, we could see more of these being installed soon. Large infill/extension works are happening adjacent to the current casting building so there is a chance they could install additional gigapresses to increase production and/or allow for future front body castings.

 

[UncaNed]

I've never traded pre-market. How do you tell if this is enabled in your preferred platform?

EDIT: Found Fidelity extended trading:

As one of the last to be giving information about trading basics, I think I can reasonably advise - especially all the new folks here - that there are other things like premarket and postmarket trading you should investigate. If you don't already understand any of the following things that initially slipped past my basic stock related education, look them up on your broker's tutorial pages. Mostly to do with tax management in the US, I wish I'd learned about them much sooner than I did, including:

1) Naming a POD person or persons for your accounts
2) Understanding WASH rules
3) Cost Basis and settling closed positions by assigning by ID vs. the usual default FIFO or other choices
4) Long term vs. Short term cap gains tax rates
5) Why you might want to pay the taxes necessary to convert your IRA to a Roth IRA ASAP

 

[30seconds]

Some of us have LEAPS, (does that mean I'm not a true (all-shares-always-HODLING) TSLA long? Does it make me a bad person?) so we must ponder over the best time to sell the LEAPS we've held the longest and buy others that won't expire till much later. Sadly, the only TMC advice with respect to my strategy of continuously rotating my LEAP portfolio to the latest available expirations (so they never even remotely come close to expiring worthless) while maximizing my total account Delta either:
A) applies to CALLs that expire in what I personally consider to be a stark raving risky short time, or
B) require a level of basic knowledge about puts and hedging well above my understanding of options or
C) never seem to address this very basic, but to me, very essential obvious question

what I do is sell the LEAPs once the one year holding period is out and the option premium has been reduced to the point where the roll forward cost is reasonable. But that takes (for me at least) some serious luck b/c if they are so far in the money that the premium is gone then it’s just a tax hit (unless you buy at expiration) or if I am rolling forward then you lose some value on the new option premium.

i try to buy in the money LEAPs when the worry meter is high and the stock is down. I look to see where the option premium is relatively reasonable vs shorter term CALLS. Less ability to leverage this way, but then again more protection.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I don’t know what this is, but I expect I will want it.

Home | CyberLandr

www.cyberlandr.com

 

[jerry33]

Well, it was a ‘recruitment’ endeavor for all types. I imagine that means R&D people too. And you are aware they’re beyond the pigs now, right? They implanted a monkey and taught it to play video games.

Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your view of the living), R&D involving animals, and even more so people, is subject to a lot of moral and ethical questions nowadays which often slows progress to a crawl.

I would say their current approach to nail down the safety of the technology, the ability to add or remove it with no ill effects, to make it practically unnoticeable, to have it implanted and removed by the precision of a programmed robot rather than human hands in a matter of minutes etc... is the best choice.

I would also say that when the time comes, human volunteers will line up for the chance to be a guinea pig, and that as Elon has demonstrated before, smart people will want to work there.

I think, as is your tendency, your concerns are misplaced and focused on the wrong aspect.

If it means I don't have to wear hearing aids that don't work all that effectively anyway--sign me up.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I was checking out the new gm Hummer reveal and noticed they employed several buttons below the screen (looks like controls on a cassette recorder).
This is ideal for manual driving, but unnecessary if a vehicle can drive itself. Clearly no plans for FSD on this line...

I do believe CyberTruck demand will lose some traction ahead of launch as more competitors are offering that conventional truck look. However, I also don't think for a second that CyberTruck will ever catch up to demand for years to come. Like others here I'm sure, in a year we'll reassess what's available against our Cyber orders and stay the course with Tesla just from price and tech standpoint - the main point for a utility vehicle.

GM unveils electric Hummer SUV topping $110,000

The 2024 GMC Hummer EV SUV debuted during an ad narrated by NBA star LeBron James that aired during the NCAA's Final Four.

www.cnbc.com

 

[wtlloyd]

The bedrock of the labor Union movement has always been the negotiation of good living wages. I am a retired Union electrician, woven into the fabric of good living wages is the idea that a rising tide raises all ships. I still believe in those tenets.

All those things said, I would “opt” for the stock options. It makes great sense for Tesla employees.

In your case, it should be pointed out that IBEW is one of the best unions you can be a member of. My father was a Union electrician in Los Angeles (street lighting, then commercial interior lighting). He was a lazy bastard, but made out well all in all.
I am generally pro-Union, but UAW has had a stench associated with it for a long time.

 

[Tslynk67]

Some of us have LEAPS, (does that mean I'm not a true (all-shares-always-HODLING) TSLA long? Does it make me a bad person?) so we must ponder over the best time to sell the LEAPS we've held the longest and buy others that won't expire till much later. Sadly, the only TMC advice with respect to my strategy of continuously rotating my LEAP portfolio to the latest available expirations (so they never even remotely come close to expiring worthless) while maximizing my total account Delta either:
A) applies to CALLs that expire in what I personally consider to be a stark raving risky short time, or
B) require a level of basic knowledge about puts and hedging well above my understanding of options or
C) never seem to address this very basic, but to me, very essential obvious question

Not to mention those of us that sell covered calls, which in my case is to try and avoid selling any shares, which counts as 2xHODL!

 

[lafrisbee]

I don’t know what this is, but I expect I will want it.

Home | CyberLandr

www.cyberlandr.com

First, I call the Cyber(not a)truck the Cyber(not a)truck because it is more likely something else. And the engineering was done to make it as multi-purpose as ...well, it is. It is like calling a compound a farm.
My decision to acquire one is based solely on the RV potential of it. (Once again I lived in a 2-man pup tent for nine months in college, and was very comfortable sleeping on a four-layer cardboard bed.)
When they put a hard shell, insulated, Wedge over the "Vault" (Elon's word not mine, evidently he doesn't see it as a truck either), it will dovetail in with everything I think an REV (Recreational Electric Vehicle...damn did I just create a new category, and its name?!) A comfortable(heat/AC), livable (Sleepable/secure), Electric Vehicle.
So just slap a wedge over the Vault, and bang on the side when breakfast is ready.
I fully expected someone to have a premium Wedge that takes advantage of the Cybernotatruck engineering of a large sleepable climate-controlled secure space, and makes it better. Line the roof with solar panels and a rack for a kayak and take my money.

 

[Cosmacelf]

"How Salt + Clay Lithium Extraction fits with Tesla's Lithium Strategy" | The Limiting Factor

"This video is on how Tesla's Salt + Clay Lithium Extraction fits with Tesla's Lithium Strategy. In other words, I’ll provide some balance to the fear, uncertainty, and doubt, aka FUD, that’s dominated the narrative on Tesla’s extraction process. Then, in the next video, I’ll describe the specific technical challenges and potential processes involved. This is part thirteen of the Lithium Mine to Battery Line Series to break down and understand what was unveiled at Tesla Battery Day."​

Rather than just post a link, can you provide some reason why you posted the link. Was it a good video? Anything catch your interest?