pitabun
Member
It kind of sucks that Tesla navigation doesn't update when superchargers are full, they should give you the option of rerouting to the next closest.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It kind of sucks that Tesla navigation doesn't update when superchargers are full, they should give you the option of rerouting to the next closest.
I just did that drive a couple weeks ago. I felt like they were 250 kW chargers everywhere. But looking back at the map you are correct.
There is a large gap there near Santa Clarita.
I hear you, though Tesla did go through 3-4 years of incredible revenue growth with only a fraction of a positive change in their stock price. That 2020 ramp up was a catch-up, IMO. Now that the company is in the S&P 500, I think it's a different beast of a company and stock. If they do hit their revenue projections for 2021 and 2022, the price will have to catch up again...whether that's later or sooner. There's so many, rational investment, eyes on it now that I think it's going to be sooner.
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
That should be easy to do. Tesla has said to be open to sharing its plugs with other carmakers. These would have to reciprocate and share the cost of the charging network.
Shell just sent an email with the new tariff for their charging stations:
All are substantially more expensive than what Tesla charges us. DC (= fast) charging is 0.64 to 0.81 instead of the 0.37 that Tesla charges (73 % to 119 % more). At home I pay about 0.32 for electricity (if my solar panels and powerwalls are exhausted, so not very often).
And from what I hear and see - these chargers are often unreliable. I do not know how these people get away with such poor service. Tesla Supercharger is the best in
- reliability
- convenience
- price
- coverage of Europe (density)
- charging rate
Tesla is also clearly expanding the network as demand arises. Lots of new locations and additional plugs at existing locations.
I disagreed with your post because it comes off as emotion and not logic based on numbers and data........and in general there's a misconception of how companies are valued and why some are valued more than others. Tesla was $200/share a year ago because investors either didn't believe or were just starting to believe in Tesla's growth potential, their margins (gross, operating, and net), and especially the futility of competition. Tesla has proved out a lot of those things. The market STILL doesn't believe Tesla's growth for this year and next year especially. They also fail to see how Tesla's growth effects its' earnings/profits which is why practically all EPS estimates from even the Bulls are 30-50% too low for this year and next. As to what is priced in and what isn't from your list....that's all subjective and an emotion thing.
But your post actually makes a great example for me to point to. You mention Ford sold 4.2 million vehicles in 2020......and yet they only have a 4% operating margin. Tesla had a 6.7% operating margin in 2020 with just 500,000 vehicles and it's actually current quarterly operating margin is near 10% (could be as high as 15% by end of 2021). Ford is loaded with debt and have practically zero growth ahead of them for the next 10 years (their EV output will grow but it will be offset by loss of sales of ICE vehicles). It's fair to assume Ford's sales might have already peaked and will continually decline as Tesla continues it's ramp. Their margins and especially operating margin are going to be gutted as they have to fend off Tesla's pricing power AND make the transition to EV's. That's why their market cap is so much lower than Tesla's.
Edit: One last thing to point out. If Tesla didn't break 900 by end of 2022, it's P/E would be under 30 easily........lower than most companies that are growing only 15-20% a year.
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I completely agree.
I would also add that contrary to what I thought previously- failing EV companies (Nikola, lordstown etc) would drag Tesla down with them- I now believe that this will actually increase Tesla‘s market cap as the market begins to realize that what Tesla has done ‘looks’ easy, but is incredibly difficult.
Furthermore; the “EV play” will become more of a loser…and the obvious choice for clean energy investment becomes obvious and singular.
I thoroughly believe in the concept of ‘invest in the future that you want to see’; that’s what I did and I suspect many others like me, who missed the early days of Tesla out of ignorance or disbelief, will soon come to realize that we are still in the early innings… Smart money will buy dips as the price rises.
I don't personally buy the extended multi year consolidation thesis.
There is one major difference between this year (particularly the back half of this year) and the prior multi year consolidation, Tesla is becoming increasingly profitable quarter by quarter. We all know this. But I don't think the market broadly understands how quickly this is coming. I think it's been masked somewhat by Elon's compensation tranches hitting GAAP earnings and continual bad takes around reg credits.
A look at various models for GAAP earnings suggest a decently likelihood that the P/E ratio could compress to well under 100 if the share price stayed flat at $600. Of course I don't expect that to happen, and firmly believe the share price will rise throughout the back half of the year as Q2-Q4 earnings reports come in higher than expectations.
This is the key difference. In the past long bout of sideways trading, there were no real earnings. You had to believe. That's changed now.
Now of course there still is a story to choose to believe or not about Robotaxi/Energy revenue, but to me that's a debate not about do we get to $1000, but about how far beyond $1000.
Fun fact - If Jame's Stephenson's model for 2021 ends up being accurate, which I definitely think it can be if Tesla continues executing, the stock could go up to $800-850/share and the P/E would still go under 100 after Q4 earnings.
Note that I do not believe Jame's model forecast is assuming any deferred FSD revenue or the impact of the impending subscription or FSD wide release. If those things release before the end of Q4, Tesla's P/E will plummet even more under a P/E of 100 after Q4 earnings.
I believe the main reason why people have so many issues charging on all these chargers is that there are dozens of different EVs who try to connect to chargers from dozens of companies. And while there are technical specifications - in real life there is just too many combinations and interpretations of the specs. And this is a nightmare to debug.
Tesla owns both ends of our charging cables and have a much easier job making the car and the charger communicate.
If Tesla should allow others to use the Superchargers they could very well end up battling many of the same problems.
Presumably, if Tesla does this they will insist that the foreign cars use their standard software and communication method. So the cars will be "Tesla charging capable". That will avoid the problems, but it won't help existing cars.
I wonder if people who don't own Teslas charging at a Tesla supercharger feels marginalized. I mean you have all these people starring at you while you pay double their rates taking twice as long because the car can't take the high charging rate....
Exactly.
Though his full year projections caught me off guard, then I realized he is including the valuation allowance. I don't personally have any idea how the market will value that aspect. I would assume on the margin it will be positive to the share price, but I would also assume that $1 EPS from the valuation allowance will not be given the same weight in investors minds as $1 EPS from the business.
For those who missed it:
The robo traders will look at the insane jump in EPS and trade up...perhaps a 5-10% jump as it will see it as a major beat. Then upon realizing it's just the deferred tax revenue, you'll see many AH traders taking advantage of the error and sell at a profit.
This happened with AMD 2 earnings ago as EPS came in way high and the stock jumped but lost all of it's gains once people realized it's just the tax deferred rev. I am expecting the same here for Tsla as that revenue is a one time thing and is immaterial when it comes to determining the valuation of the company through stock price.
It doesn't matter how certain analysts want to respond to the tax allowance (and I expect a few of the usual ones to try and back it out)......but the cold hard fact is it get's put into the calculation for the P/E and that will bring the P/E down even more substantially and there's nothing bears/shorts can do about it
This makes a difference when you're talking index funds who will look at P/E when it comes to buying for their funds.....even though as we all know P/E is pretty dumb
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Wouldn’t the Tesla AC system design be rather incompatible with a home system? Sure the air purification would be great, but the underlying system in the cars is based on moving excess heat generated by the motors to the battery and passenger cabin as required using the octovalve (combined with some traditional A/C elements IIRC?). A home heating system doesn’t have these local sources of heat energy to redistribute into the living space, instead it would need to be entirely based on the same heat pump reverse cycle principles that are currently deployed in home heat pumps. I would love to see some innovation in the home heat pump space that improves the efficiency though and would love to see Tesla give it a try.
I'm remembering how the Model 3 initial demand surprised the world. CT is again new, but also more radical. So somewhere between 200K and 2M orders I'm thinking. Either way, there should be plenty of demand in Q4 when they turn on the Factory and begin to demonstrate word on the street.
Agreed JustSaying (CPA/CFO)
One of my Dad's favorite chuckle's
"Accountants are familiar with the story of the hot air balloonist who was blown far off course. He landed in a field, totally lost, and spotted a man walking nearby.
“Where am I?” he yelled.
The man replied, “You’re in the basket of a hot air balloon in the middle of the field.”
The balloonist shouted back, “You must be a CPA.”
The man stopped suddenly. “How did you know?”
“It was easy to figure out,” the balloonist said. “Your answer to my question was precise...and totally useless.”
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A price of $900 and a PE “under 30 easily” means you are saying Tesla will have $20 Billion+ in Net Profit in 2022.
I don’t think there are many bulls even that think Tesla will be anywhere near that in 2022. I have that pencilled in on my estimates for 2023 though, so would be fair to say a forward PE of under 30 perhaps.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Could actually be a really cool product tie-in with Solar Roof and Powerwall.
Powerwalls need to be actively cooled, and their coolant pumps consume a not insignificant amount of electricity. And likewise high temperates can reduce solar cell efficiency. You could have a heat exchanger connected to coils under Solar Roof tiles, and into Powerwalls, which would both provide free heat energy in the Winter that you could pull into your home.
It all depends of having good sources of heat, that they can move around, and a means of moving that heat...
Water pipes are a possible way of moving heat around....
@willow_hiller has some good suggestions.... about possible heat sources...
But overall that level of integration would be challenging and expensive.
They may be focused on the efficiency of the heat pump, lower energy use, less noise, better air filtration.
If Tesla make a HVAC it has to be significantly better than existing products... lower energy use is a good target.
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