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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Not one person talked about S&P 500 Q1 2019. The topics were all bankruptcy related. Smart money contacted Piper Sandler about the total value of Tesla's assets if they went under. Cathie Wood was laughed at with a PT that is 1/4th of today's SP prices.

Many hedge funds got CRUSHED and MM got crushed. No one anticipated a stock split would shake out all the naked short selling. Then they all got crushed again not anticipating that Tesla would make money despite of factory shutdown/pandemic.
this is my recollection..Cathy Wood, Ron Baron , Baillie Gifford, and a few others were alone on that island ... oh and us TMC hodlers ;)
 
Here’s a possible reason for the SP to remain range bound until late 2021 or early 2022: Because Elon wants it that way. Crazy? Maybe yes, but hear me out. So imagine that you’re CEO, have real morals, and want your employees to benefit financially while building the greatest company in history. After constructing factories on multiple continents simultaneously, the company will need to hire an immense number of employees who will likely be given incentive stock options (options, but not the ones that anyone can trade). These employee incentive options are normally given at the stock price at the time the employee is hired, so that there is no immediate taxable benefit. If the SP goes down, the option is usually not exercised and there is no tax implication, gain or loss. If the SP goes up, the employee may exercise at anytime or may wait until right before its expiration, effectively delaying capital gains until exercised. These options can go for 2, 5, 10 years to expiration. For these type of options to be worth the most for employees, it is better to have the SP remain lower (and relatively constant so that a large number of employees can be granted them, during the likely lengthy hiring process) for some extended time, after which the SP rises to reflect the existing and future value of the company. If the SP rises before the employee stock options are given, the future value is lower. Finally, if the SP rises too quickly, some employees may quit or not work as fastidiously, reducing the value of the options as incentive. FYI, been there, seen that (in a startup in a completely different field).

No, Elon cannot control the SP, but maybe he can just play along (ignore it) and allow the shorts, MMs, and “investment bankers” to do their work. We all know that a split would propel the SP back to the 900s, maybe even 1000s, and certainly Elon knows it as well. By waiting to split the stock until after the factories are built and new employees hired, this will effectively give future employees more financial incentives.

tl;dr: Patience Grasshopper.
 
Here’s a possible reason for the SP to remain range bound until late 2021 or early 2022: Because Elon wants it that way. Crazy? Maybe yes, but hear me out. So imagine that you’re CEO, have real morals, and want your employees to benefit financially while building the greatest company in history. After constructing factories on multiple continents simultaneously, the company will need to hire an immense number of employees who will likely be given incentive stock options (options, but not the ones that anyone can trade). These employee incentive options are normally given at the stock price at the time the employee is hired, so that there is no immediate taxable benefit. If the SP goes down, the option is usually not exercised and there is no tax implication, gain or loss. If the SP goes up, the employee may exercise at anytime or may wait until right before its expiration, effectively delaying capital gains until exercised. These options can go for 2, 5, 10 years to expiration. For these type of options to be worth the most for employees, it is better to have the SP remain lower (and relatively constant so that a large number of employees can be granted them, during the likely lengthy hiring process) for some extended time, after which the SP rises to reflect the existing and future value of the company. If the SP rises before the employee stock options are given, the future value is lower. Finally, if the SP rises too quickly, some employees may quit or not work as fastidiously, reducing the value of the options as incentive. FYI, been there, seen that (in a startup in a completely different field).

No, Elon cannot control the SP, but maybe he can just play along (ignore it) and allow the shorts, MMs, and “investment bankers” to do their work. We all know that a split would propel the SP back to the 900s, maybe even 1000s, and certainly Elon knows it as well. By waiting to split the stock until after the factories are built and new employees hired, this will effectively give future employees more financial incentives.

tl;dr: Patience Grasshopper.
Tesla doesn't issue options, they issue RSU's. Any company that is already publicly traded issues RSU's to their employees. Options, whether they are ISO or NSO options are granted to employees in pre-IPO companies. Some at the Executive level get option packages, but your everyday employee will not, they'll just get RSU's
 
Thinking out loud if there were spikes of non-tesla charging demand it would be interesting if teslas could opt-in to the Tesla Virtual Power Plant (VPP) program and provide vehicle to vehicle power (via power supplied to the superchargers). Either generate cash or credits to be used toward subscriptions, supercharger, etc. Maybe powerwalls with excess power could contribute as well? This would increase traffic and wait times though so probably not worth it 🤷‍♂️
 
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When you control the worldwide charging network, you control... information!

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Tesla doesn't issue options, they issue RSU's. Any company that is already publicly traded issues RSU's to their employees. Options, whether they are ISO or NSO options are granted to employees in pre-IPO companies. Some at the Executive level get option packages, but your everyday employee will not, they'll just get RSU's
Sorry, not familiar with RSU, so had to look up the terminology, but that’s what I meant. Thanks.
 
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...We all know that a split would propel the SP back to the 900s, maybe even 1000s, and certainly Elon knows it as well. By waiting to split the stock until after the factories are built and new employees hired, this will effectively give future employees more financial incentives.

Interesting hypothesis. A counterargument is that Tesla will not stop building factories and hiring new employees for the next decade at least. There's a long way to go from ~1M vehicle deliveries this year to 20M+ in 2030 (not to mention Tesla's other products, known and currently unknown).

Because of this enormous growth, the stock will have lots of upside even after it pops to the 900s and 1000s. Future employees will have lots of financial incentive, even if hired much higher on the S curve of this historic company.
 
Yes, many questions.

How will they handle billing?
Will they have to affix credit card readers to all superchargers?
How will this affect already crowded charging locations?
How will Tesla owners react when a lowly ID.4 is blocking their spot?

Although as a shareholder, this could be yet another revenue stream, so...
I’d expect Tesla would publish an API that others would have to work to. Also I think that Tesla likely designed the Supercharger software suite with the expectation that other manufacturers might be using it.

That is, whatever protocol, identification, and handshake Tesla implements with its own cars, other manufacturers would need to replicate.

This does mean that it may not be possible to retrofit EV’s from other manufacturers that are already on the road. Then again, maybe someone will figure out how to make it possible.

Further, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some other manufacturers start to build camera sensor packages similar to Tesla’s into their vehicles with the hope and expectation that they might license Tesla’s FSD technology.

edit: I doubt Elon would allow a charging experience that wasn’t absolutely as seamless, secure, and reliable as Tesla’s own on the Supercharger network. That is why I am skeptical of the adapter-based approach others are advocating.
 
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They could, but it takes Tesla an awfully long time to make an adapter. They still don't have a CCS adapter for North America, and I recall how long it took to make the CHAdeMO adapter.
The CCS standard specifically forbids adapters. The electrical connector is subject to design patents, so that requires a license. Violating the standard violates the license. Until CharIN decides to modify the standard I don't expect to see any adapters. Tesla is a CharIN member, but pretty much all of the others are Tesla competitors who hate/fear Tesla so not anytime soon.

Edit: changed link to CharIN's position paper on adapters.
 
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I suspect the issue is more one of pride and marketing than a legal issue. I mean really, if you are Ford, GM, Audi, or another major auto maker, do you really want your electric fleet charging on the most functional and useable network, a network that is basically a sleek advertisement for your stiffest competition?

Ford CEO: Oh, no, you're not going to see a Ford hooking up with those sexy red and white superchargers with the big oval hole in the middle, not on my watch you're not! Our customers are proud Ford owners, I'm not going to humiliate them by making them visit places like that! Seriously, have you even been to one? Those places are teeming with shiny new Model S,3,X and Y's and their sickening owners with big smiles plastered on their faces. Ford owners deserve better than that!
Pride goeth before the fall.

Arguably it’s a life-or-death choice for the legacy OEM’s. I’d think they’d sign on the dotted line.
 
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and people are confused about why Fred isn't well loved.

People think we judge Fred because of his reporting of facts. FALSE

We judge Fred because his opinions are wrong, stupid, and literally has the WRONG TAKE on what is going on.

Let me explain the score to you Fred if you are lurking:

WHAT IS OK:

Tesla being wrong on the amount of needed hardware for FSD.
Tesla customers expecting Tesla to upgrade customers who have invested in FSD with the belief their car will be FSD capable and will operate FSD when the time comes.

WHAT IS NOT OK:

Accusing Tesla of lying to and misleading prior customers.

Equating a $200 month CANCEL ANYTIME sub on the same moral playing field as someone who has paid EIGHT TO TEN THOUSAND IN 2016-2021 NON INFLATION ADJUSTED MONEY to ride along with Tesla while they build this thing.

By asking $1500, and now only $1000 to cover the upfront cost of HW3, TESLA IS NOT CHEATING ANYONE.

I hope Tesla finds a way to cancel Fred's Roadster somehow. We don't need his news, his articles, and his clickbait attacks against Tesla that contributed to ill gotten referrals.
 
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This does mean that it may not be possible to retrofit EV’s from other manufacturers that are already on the road. Then again, maybe someone will figure out how to make it possible.


Shouldn't be that hard. OTA update should do the trick.

Oh, wait a minute….
 
OK, then, F ‘em. Let them try to find an EA charger that works, especially after VW bails.

edit: check out this Mach-E /EA road trip experience
There is a shopping center that I often go to that has an EA station with 8 stalls that opened a bit over a year ago. Until about a month ago, I'd never once seen any car charging there (it's pretty close to I-95 so should be a popular stop). So a month ago as I was leaving (passing by the EA station in my car) I saw a Chevy Bolt in a charging spot plugged in. As I approached the owner got out of the vehicle and unplugged the car. I thought wow! Finally the first person I've seen charge at this station! As I was leaving I saw in my rear view mirror they got in the car and drove to another spot and start to plug in again. So AFAIK it was just the first person attempting to charge rather than actually charging.

The EA station is about 10 miles from the Laurel, MD superchargers. Most of the time when I'd go to that shopping center I would check how many of the Laurel spots were in use at the time while the EA station was empty. I didn't keep stats but several times the supercharger station was full, and only once did I ever see it (on the map) as empty. The EA station was always empty.

Go EA!!