Here’s a possible reason for the SP to remain range bound until late 2021 or early 2022: Because Elon wants it that way. Crazy? Maybe yes, but hear me out. So imagine that you’re CEO, have real morals, and want your employees to benefit financially while building the greatest company in history. After constructing factories on multiple continents simultaneously, the company will need to hire an immense number of employees who will likely be given incentive stock options (options, but not the ones that anyone can trade). These employee incentive options are normally given at the stock price at the time the employee is hired, so that there is no immediate taxable benefit. If the SP goes down, the option is usually not exercised and there is no tax implication, gain or loss. If the SP goes up, the employee may exercise at anytime or may wait until right before its expiration, effectively delaying capital gains until exercised. These options can go for 2, 5, 10 years to expiration. For these type of options to be worth the most for employees, it is better to have the SP remain lower (and relatively constant so that a large number of employees can be granted them, during the likely lengthy hiring process) for some extended time, after which the SP rises to reflect the existing and future value of the company. If the SP rises before the employee stock options are given, the future value is lower. Finally, if the SP rises too quickly, some employees may quit or not work as fastidiously, reducing the value of the options as incentive. FYI, been there, seen that (in a startup in a completely different field).
No, Elon cannot control the SP, but maybe he can just play along (ignore it) and allow the shorts, MMs, and “investment bankers” to do their work. We all know that a split would propel the SP back to the 900s, maybe even 1000s, and certainly Elon knows it as well. By waiting to split the stock until after the factories are built and new employees hired, this will effectively give future employees more financial incentives.
tl;dr: Patience Grasshopper.