Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

I was with your logic today to some extent, but this isn't a problem. Elon isn't gonna get down in the slop with TSLAQ unless it's on his own terms.

These guys pay CNBC to print nonsense and it's important for Elon to not respond. I would also say it's important for you not to link to it.

This is absolutely the only place I have put it. Yet I have seen many a person people with far more reach then me sharing it and using it to criticize Elon and Tesla. I know why Elon doesnt take a big stand, do I wish he would? On the human sense. Yes. For the sake of Tesla and Climate Change know. Abbot didnt do Tesla any favor with this.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I cannot even begin to fathom the amount of money this guy must be pulling in from lobbyists and special interest. If this goes on much longer Joe Manchin's gonna be so rich he'll only be taking golden showers!

Manchin Jolts Democrats by Urging ‘Pause’ on $3.5 Trillion Bill

Senator Joe Manchin is demanding a “strategic pause” in action on President Joe Biden’s economic agenda, potentially imperiling the $3.5 trillion tax and spending package that Democratic leaders plan to push through Congress this fall.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Don't forget that the price rises in recent months may well be related to cost of materials, which have been rising all over the world. No guarantee these will lead to a rise in profits,

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Don't forget that the price rises in recent months may well be related to cost of materials, which have been rising all over the world. No guarantee these will lead to a rise in profits,

Recent price hikes are almost certainly >90% due to looming US subsidies coupled with insatiable demand.

 

[henchman24]

There's anecdotal evidence of vocal Model S customers waiting delivery and have their delivery dates pushed. There was no actual evidence of the Model S lines being down. No reports of it. For all we know, Tesla is batch producing, ran out of something like white interior pieces and so decided to do another batch of black interior until they got my supply of the white interior. Thus those waiting on delivery with white interior got pushed. We had periodic flyovers from a couple different people that showed Model S production was going. This was the same setup as end of Q2 where everyone was saying Model S deliveries were only going to be a couple hundred. Same exact situation happening now.

And not to toot my own horn.....but this method I've used for estimating quarter Quarter P/D has been pretty good this year. I was only like 2k off the P/D for Q1 ( I actually underestimated by 2k) and only a bit more for Q2. I was still much...much closer than everyone else estimating using anecdotal evidence. There way too much FUD out there to take anything serious at this point.

I'd say 11k is a more than a bit off on Q2

I hope you're right and it is easily 230!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Don't forget that the price rises in recent months may well be related to cost of materials, which have been rising all over the world. No guarantee these will lead to a rise in profits,

This was dispelled to some degree with Q2 earnings. The price hikes happened in both Q1 and Q2. We should have some hit by a supposed rise cost of goods/materials in Q2 earnings and we didn't.

 

[t153]

I find the pessimism around Model S production rates to be bizarre. Tesla was able to make 2,400 Model S in just 4 weeks time in June. Just at that rate alone, Tesla should be able to make 12,000. I've seen zero actual evidence of the Model S lines being down at any point in Q3. Just people's fears driving their views. I go off on data and numbers. Remember people CONVINCED themselves that Tesla was only going to delivery a couple hundred Model S's for Q2 and they ended up doing 1,500 deliveries.

The math to 230k is very easy to me. Start with 201k from Q2. Add 8k more from China MOM 1st month, 5k MOM 2nd month, 8k MOM 3rd month along with 10k Model S's and you get 232k. I've seen no reason to think they won't hit that.

When it comes to earnings, these factors will play a big role in earnings expansion to get to EPS of $2

- Model S margin going from negative to positive - Easily could be a 150-200 million swing
- Price hikes of 2-3 on US 3/Y take effect in Q3 - Likely another 125-150 million add to profit
- EV credits going back to it's 2 year average from 350 million in Q2 to 450 million in Q3 - Another 100 million add to profit
- The suspected China EV credit payout of 400 million (but this one is more uncertain)
- All Europe deliveries being MIC which are higher margin + all top trims for Model Y going there.

- And last of course, the gross margin profits of the additional 30,000 deliveries that because of operation leverage and most importantly operational costs not going up at the same rate, will go primarily straight to the bottom line.

Weren't most of the price increases for cars that would be delivered outside of Q3? Not like this will effect your estimate by a huge margin, but still something worth considering.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Recent price hikes are almost certainly >90% due to looming US subsidies coupled with insatiable demand.

No. The cost of materials is skyrocketing everywhere. No one is pretending everything isn't more expensive anymore. The amount of inflation after the Federal Reserve has literally printed 40% of all the US Dollars that ever existed last year is being felt everywhere. Tesla is raising prices to protect current margins, they are not front running an infrastructure bill that literally isn't written yet.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Weren't most of the price increases for cars that would be delivered outside of Q3? Not like this will effect your estimate by a huge margin, but still something worth considering.

Huh? The price hikes will effect all US 3/Y deliveries for this quarter. Roughly 90,000 vehicles. That's about 200 million in revenue in price hikes of 2-3K. Factor in 50 million of that is from cost of goods increase. That's 150 million to profits.

The estimate I gave above was me factoring the price hikes on only US deliveries.

 

[jerry33]

Again, I ask that people educate themselves and avoid spreading FUD about this. Tesla and TSLA have enough without us adding to it.

That is what we Texas Tesla Owners have been doing. Unfortunately, it's an each by each process, and Covid is not helping any.

 

[Opus BC fan]

My prediction for today's SP. Up...."they" are going to have a hard time keeping a cap on it.

Not Advice......well kinda...but only as much as any random dude on the internet.

 

[henchman24]

Most commodity prices are priced months in advance. Increases in March/April/May will have the largest impact on manufactured goods in the June-August range.

 

[GOVA]

Refers to deleted post.

Call me a pessimist, but I am not holding my breath.

Recent price hikes are almost certainly >90% due to looming US subsidies coupled with insatiable demand.

Subsidies - NO, we don't now if/when/if Tesla is included. A big unknown, IMO.

Demand - yes, I agree, it will grow big.

 

[Accident]

Reports now of Apple working with Toyota on the Apple Car. Next week it will be Mercedes turn.

Apple Reportedly in Talks With Toyota About Apple Car Production Starting 2024

Mod: article is 9 months old -- ggr

 

[t153]

Huh? The price hikes will effect all US 3/Y deliveries for this quarter. Roughly 90,000 vehicles. That's about 200 million in revenue in price hikes of 2-3K. Factor in 50 million of that is from cost of goods increase. That's 150 million to profits.

The estimate I gave above was me factoring the price hikes on only US deliveries.

I can't find a chart with the history of all the price increases this year, but it sounds like there were some in Q1 and Q2 also? I didn't remember that.

What I was trying to say was that there was a decent wait for cars ordered in Q3, so while they were raising prices, the estimated delivery dates for those cars were getting bumped further and further in the year until we're looking at model Y being sold out for the year. If the bump occurs in Q3 but the car isn't delivered until Q4 or Q1 '22 then it wouldn't be realized on the balance sheet until then. This is all moot if we had increases in Q1 and Q2 though, so my fault.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I can't find a chart with the history of all the price increases this year, but it sounds like there were some in Q1 and Q2 also? I didn't remember that.

What I was trying to say was that there was a decent wait for cars ordered in Q3, so while they were raising prices, the estimated delivery dates for those cars were getting bumped further and further in the year until we're looking at model Y being sold out for the year. If the bump occurs in Q3 but the car isn't delivered until Q4 or Q1 '22 then it wouldn't be realized on the balance sheet until then. This is all moot if we had increases in Q1 and Q2 though, so my fault.

We definitely had price a couple price increases in Q1/Q2. I believe here were 2-3 or then an additional one in July.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Since march 2020, steel prices are up 215%. There is a lot of steel in a tesla.

Steel prices are up 200%. When will the bubble pop?

The benchmark price for hot-rolled steel hit another all-time high last week, climbing to $1,825. Here's why. When will the steel bubble pop? Prices are up over 200% Steel prices are up 200%. When will the bubble pop?

fortune.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

The math to 230k is very easy to me. Start with 201k from Q2. Add 8k more from China MOM 1st month, 5k MOM 2nd month, 8k MOM 3rd month along with 10k Model S's and you get 232k. I've seen no reason to think they won't hit that.

Plus the extra day in Q3 - Don't forget that one for 235K
(Edit: dislexia?)

 

[thx1139]

No. The cost of materials is skyrocketing everywhere. No one is pretending everything isn't more expensive anymore. The amount of inflation after the Federal Reserve has literally printed 40% of all the US Dollars that ever existed last year is being felt everywhere. Tesla is raising prices to protect current margins, they are not front running an infrastructure bill that literally isn't written yet.

Can you supply sources that show that materials used for Q3 production were that much higher then the Q2 production materials?

 

[ClimateOptimst]

It's all well and good to talk about another great quarter blowing the top off things, but.......we just had TWO monster quarters beyond nearly all expectations and the SP did precisely squat.

Just adds to the pressure cooker and eventually the lid blows off again. Impossible to predict exactly when only that there will be a when