Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zloy]

Here is where I smell a rat:
I truly cannot think of anyone larger than a very, very small player who ever would show his hand in the way that tweet represents. Not ever. And some multibillionaire to do so? To me, that’s beyond absurd.

What if he is just executing his calls?

 

[Fred42]

Does the cell factory for 5 billion euro investment include only the portion that has been outlined and under construction so far? Or should we look for the other 3 or 4 cell areas in future phases that would also be included in this number?

If it is just the area that has been outlined so far, wow, that's amazingly expensive equipment put in a tight package. It's probably a lot more money than the rest of the factory combined so far -- maybe 6x?

Here would be the breakout.

0.8 billion euros for the auto and drive train factories nearing completion
5.0 billion euros for the cell factory under construction

Tesla is in line for 1.135 billion euros. The remainder is for other companies.

 

[Rarity]

Tesla is in line for 1.135 billion euros. The remainder is for other companies.

I think you misunderstood my question.

 

[hobbes]

Tesla is in line for 1.135 billion euros. The remainder is for other companies.

You are confusing the total of the aid by German government (2.9 billion) with the total investment of Tesla into cell production at Giga Berlin (5 billion). The latter is what Rarity is talking about.

 

[ZeApelido]

Even Elon agrees that acronyms SS

S
E
C

 

[InTheShadows]

Does anyone else have concern about the location of Steel Dynamics factory relative to Corpus Christi (CC), the bay, and gulf because of hurricanes? They are 13 miles from the bay north of CC and 30 miles from the gulf.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Does anyone else have concern about the location of Steel Dynamics factory relative to Corpus Christi (CC), the bay, and gulf because of hurricanes? They are 13 miles from the bay north of CC and 30 miles from the gulf.

Pick your location, pick your natural disaster….

 

[winfield100]

My Tesla Investment Thesis 3: The Complete 2021 TSLA Investing Guide

An in-depth blog about investing in TSLA. Here you will find investment theses, financial models, earnings forecasts, options strategies, and more.

teslainvestor.blogspot.com

Some of you might be interested in this

a very long detailed read, started 6 hrs ago, broke for lunch and bleary eyes a few times

 

[22522]

Does anyone else have concern about the location of Steel Dynamics factory relative to Corpus Christi (CC), the bay, and gulf because of hurricanes? They are 13 miles from the bay north of CC and 30 miles from the gulf.

I do not. There are a few ways to address this.

1. Cross your fingers Hurricanes in Corpus Christi · South Texas Stories · Bell Library Exhibits
2. Do a better job of hardening the site than Japan did with the reactor at Fukushima.
3. Safety stock

I expect they will use a combination of all three.

 

[kbM3]

TMIO’S brilliant takedown of MobilEye (Whom I believe is in the second position behind Tesla).

 

[kbM3]

I skimmed through it! Awesome work as always! Hope Singapore is treating you well, haven‘t been there since the circuit breaker, but if I was there I would take you out for a proper Swedish dinner at Zén!

Anyway, I think your automotive numbers for 2022 and 2023 are a bit too conservative. And I think AMaaS will be a race to the bottom so I don’t think it will be quite as profitable as you model it. But anyway, good times ahead for us. Let’s hope Elon sees it!

As far as race to the bottom, @FrankSG already postulated a $0.20 / mile price with $0.10 cost. Hard to see how others starting further behind and with less technology and vertical integration and fighting Tesla 1st mover advantage can get their cost much below $0.20 to compete?

in other words a race to THEIR bottom is not equivalent to a race to Tesla’s.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If you would have asked me 20 years ago if I ever thought a 5-seater 4 door sedan would ever keep up with a Superbike, I would have said absolutely no way...not to mention beat it. Absolutely amazing accomplishment Tesla!

Yeah, if 20 years ago you told me a Superbike would get 120 MPGe and a 5-Star safety rating, I would have said absolutely no way!

Oh wait...

Cheers!

P.S. For those who are unfamiliar, those 1-seater Superbikes get about 35 mpg on premium gas, and you can't ride them safely in most bad weather (like snow).

P.P.S. I rate the Plaid: 120/35(mpg) * 5(seats) * 4(seasons) * $15k/$130k(cost) = 8 x better Bang/$

 

[goinfraftw]

Here's some things I'm tracking and hoping to learn from the people here on this forum to augment my line of thinking on the macro situation, as it develops, and how it relates to Tesla.

I have investments that need to be tracked and the macro environment lends to a few potential black swan events that might really tip things differently. Here's the cases I've been able to come up with so far as I read about events occurring worldwide and tracking TSLA:

Case 1: Macro falls apart - Recession/Depression - multiples for co's completely fall apart across the entire market. Bad times ahead and for TSLA as their supply chain falters.

Case 2: Macro Climate Change focus - Bull Market on sustainability tech only - multiples for co's continue and prosper for only those co's, but market falters around. Some supply chain issues, but TSLA gains priority over other companies as its singular focus aligns with sustainability.

Case 3: Macro is awesome - Bull market for everyone - extraorbitant multiples stay the same because confidence is high. Starlink ftw and everyone gets connected by mobile operators working with Starlink as a backbone. Further, climate change disasters are more manageable due to interconnectivity and an increase in highly prioritized efforts to combat/avert climate change through the public and private markets.

Case 4: Macro gets weird - Highly variable market - fluctuations everywhere due to lots of consistent black swan events, confidence is all over the place. This case is just as bad as Case 1 because there's an imbalance in the market that leads to imbalances in TSLA employees ability to focus. This is where Elon Musk would shine as a leader, if he could keep his employees and shareholders aligned towards the mission in very uncertain times.

So, yeah, that's my current framework of thinking about the macro situation in regards to TSLA. If people think this is baked, half-baked, or rational - please let me know your thoughts. I'd like to learn how to adapt my thinking and see if it makes sense and/or I'm missing anything. Thank you.

 

[Paul_SF]

Here's some things I'm tracking and hoping to learn from the people here on this forum to augment my line of thinking on the macro situation, as it develops, and how it relates to Tesla.

I have investments that need to be tracked and the macro environment lends to a few potential black swan events that might really tip things differently. Here's the cases I've been able to come up with so far as I read about events occurring worldwide and tracking TSLA:

Case 1: Macro falls apart - Recession/Depression - multiples for co's completely fall apart across the entire market. Bad times ahead and for TSLA as their supply chain falters.

Case 2: Macro Climate Change focus - Bull Market on sustainability tech only - multiples for co's continue and prosper for only those co's, but market falters around. Some supply chain issues, but TSLA gains priority over other companies as its singular focus aligns with sustainability.

Case 3: Macro is awesome - Bull market for everyone - extraorbitant multiples stay the same because confidence is high. Starlink ftw and everyone gets connected by mobile operators working with Starlink as a backbone. Further, climate change disasters are more manageable due to interconnectivity and an increase in highly prioritized efforts to combat/avert climate change through the public and private markets.

Case 4: Macro gets weird - Highly variable market - fluctuations everywhere due to lots of consistent black swan events, confidence is all over the place. This case is just as bad as Case 1 because there's an imbalance in the market that leads to imbalances in TSLA employees ability to focus. This is where Elon Musk would shine as a leader, if he could keep his employees and shareholders aligned towards the mission in very uncertain times.

So, yeah, that's my current framework of thinking about the macro situation in regards to TSLA. If people think this is baked, half-baked, or rational - please let me know your thoughts. I'd like to learn how to adapt my thinking and see if it makes sense and/or I'm missing anything. Thank you.

“Case 3” for me please, with a side of creative destruction of inefficient systems.

 

[22522]

Here's some things I'm tracking and hoping to learn from the people here on this forum to augment my line of thinking on the macro situation, as it develops, and how it relates to Tesla.

I have investments that need to be tracked and the macro environment lends to a few potential black swan events that might really tip things differently. Here's the cases I've been able to come up with so far as I read about events occurring worldwide and tracking TSLA:

Case 1: Macro falls apart - Recession/Depression - multiples for co's completely fall apart across the entire market. Bad times ahead and for TSLA as their supply chain falters.

Case 2: Macro Climate Change focus - Bull Market on sustainability tech only - multiples for co's continue and prosper for only those co's, but market falters around. Some supply chain issues, but TSLA gains priority over other companies as its singular focus aligns with sustainability.

Case 3: Macro is awesome - Bull market for everyone - extraorbitant multiples stay the same because confidence is high. Starlink ftw and everyone gets connected by mobile operators working with Starlink as a backbone. Further, climate change disasters are more manageable due to interconnectivity and an increase in highly prioritized efforts to combat/avert climate change through the public and private markets.

Case 4: Macro gets weird - Highly variable market - fluctuations everywhere due to lots of consistent black swan events, confidence is all over the place. This case is just as bad as Case 1 because there's an imbalance in the market that leads to imbalances in TSLA employees ability to focus. This is where Elon Musk would shine as a leader, if he could keep his employees and shareholders aligned towards the mission in very uncertain times.

So, yeah, that's my current framework of thinking about the macro situation in regards to TSLA. If people think this is baked, half-baked, or rational - please let me know your thoughts. I'd like to learn how to adapt my thinking and see if it makes sense and/or I'm missing anything. Thank you.

I don't think you are missing the macro, but fundamental drivers of behavior at the micro scale are important.

1) Sabotage by the unions giving China the market. It is unclear how government policy is aligned with Tesla's interests.
2) In case 1, companies have to decide who they are going to serve, kind of like venture capitalists, but venture relationshipists. Their future and the future their factories and employees depend on them choosing winning customers.

This is about what humans do every day when they get up in the morning. I call it micro.

 

[goinfraftw]

1) Sabotage by the unions giving China the market. It is unclear how government policy is aligned with Tesla's interests.

I actually don't understand this! I get internet tech on an abstract level - which is helpful for investments as kinda looking at things like a game board. A little on the technical because I have an engineering background too (not a good one lol).

Are you saying that if Tesla decided to have unions, its line of path to sustainability would be a lot easier when it comes to government relations?

 

[22522]

I actually don't understand this! I get internet tech on an abstract level - which is helpful for investments as kinda looking at things like a game board. A little on the technical because I have an engineering background too (not a good one lol).

Are you saying that if Tesla decided to have unions, its line of path to sustainability would be a lot easier when it comes to government relations?

I don't understand it either. Elon posted some tweet about sabotage after the Big 3 met with Biden. So if they work together to scuttle Tesla, China wins based on a significant lead in EVs vs the Big 3 (But not Tesla).

That is the only way I could sort that out, but here may be others. So US government policy may not line up with Tesla's interests.

 

[redan]

Good info and background on the source of Tesla’s regulatory credits:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1434478871420805121

 

[Drumheller]

All the American startups have gone with small cylindrical cells. Tesla, Lucid, Rivian, Faraday, Canoo, even Lordstown. Traditional auto went with large prismatic cells.

If large-format cells become a safety problem, that's a big advantage for the startups over the traditional automakers. Great for my portfolio! Unfortunately it would also slow the mass adoption of EVs. We need traditional auto to make the EV switch successfully if we are to end the ICE age before 2040 and avoid catastrophic global warming.

So I'm going to make a radical proposal. Actually radical for a traditional company but not for Elon Musk. If traditional auto can't get their act together on battery packs, Tesla should open-source its patents on the battery assembly machines. Throw traditional auto a lifeline in order to keep the electrification of the auto industry on track.

If Tesla gave all of their tech freely to the legacy automakers, those legacy companies would still try to keep selling ICE vehicles for as long as they can. Remember that GM had the EV1 and could have easily dominated the transition to electric but they chose to destroy it.

No, legacy auto needs to cease to exist as soon as possible.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

If Tesla gave all of their tech freely to the legacy automakers, those legacy companies would still try to keep selling ICE vehicles for as long as they can. Remember that GM had the EV1 and could have easily dominated the transition to electric but they chose to destroy it.

Traditional ICE automakers depend on their vast dealer network to sell their cars. The dealers depend on service revenue to survive. EVs require far less maintenance which completely destroys this model. They are pretty much screwed.